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Replies: 186
By:
Fatslogger
When: 18 Sep 20 19:00

Sep 18, 2020 -- 6:58PM, Dr Crippen wrote:


Oh go away and put edy back on, he's much more fun than you.


I’m sorry that you don’t enjoy having your half arsed theories and ludicrous attempts at debate chopped into match wood, Crips. Perhaps try to be less scientifically illiterate and rhetorically inept in the future.

By:
Dr Crippen
When: 18 Sep 20 19:04
Well I've obviously upset you Fatslogger.

But that's what becomes of swimming out of your depth, you'll know better next time.
By:
Fatslogger
When: 18 Sep 20 19:07
Thing is Crips, I can do the ad homs and I’m better at them than you but I also actually know the science.

I mean, I’m ready for your attempts to say that ITUs don’t really admit sick people, that deaths more than doubling and rising doesn’t suggest an impending problem in a condition where we know deaths lag infections by weeks and that sombrero wearing means all stats are off. Bring them on. Or might you prefer not even to try engaging on a sub set of the arguments you haven’t already run away from? I’m sure you’ll tell us.
By:
Fatslogger
When: 18 Sep 20 19:09
But you don’t need the mock solicitousness, I rather enjoy making you retreat to your pretence that you didn’t just get humiliated safe space.
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 18 Sep 20 19:15
You certainly get upset easily.
By:
Fatslogger
When: 18 Sep 20 19:29

Sep 18, 2020 -- 7:15PM, Dr Crippen wrote:


You certainly get upset easily.


Not really. As I say, I enjoy showing you up, although you do make it too easy for it to be really good sport.

Did you forget to engage with the issues you brought up for your fifth post in a row Crips? It’s hard to work out why, isn’t it?

By:
PorcupineorPineapple
When: 18 Sep 20 19:44
I'm amazed crippen has stuck around this long. He's normally running off in the wind straight after he's had his arse handed to him. Must keep him fit I suppose.
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 18 Sep 20 20:44
Porcupine has come for a tilt now.

He'll be blowing his top soon to join Fatslogger.
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 18 Sep 20 20:47
PP goes off like a rocket.
By:
lfc1971
When: 18 Sep 20 20:54
If the false positive test is close to zero ( and it may be a bit worse than that) then you still have a problem if you are testing large numbers and the virus is quite rare. As in the UK
You can end up with more false positives than false negatives
By:
lfc1971
When: 18 Sep 20 20:59
It is possible for the number of false positives to be much greater than the real number
By:
Fatslogger
When: 18 Sep 20 21:01

Sep 18, 2020 -- 8:44PM, Dr Crippen wrote:


Porcupine has come for a tilt now.He'll be blowing his top soon to join Fatslogger.


Do you think pretending that people are cross with you rather than deeply amused at your ongoing humiliation will allow you to report them and get them banned? Even by the risibly low standards of reasoning you’ve displayed so far today, that’s a stretch, isn’t it?

By:
lfc1971
When: 18 Sep 20 21:02
I would imagine that it is likely to be the case, and would certainly be the case if infection rates are small , as they have been in the UK ( we think )
By:
lfc1971
When: 18 Sep 20 21:04
I think Dr Crippen may well be right
By:
Fatslogger
When: 18 Sep 20 21:06

Sep 18, 2020 -- 8:59PM, lfc1971 wrote:


It is possible for the number of false positives to be much greater than the real number


Yes, it’s possible. Depends on the incidence in the population (being tested, not necessarily the general population) and the false positive rate of the test, as in how often it says something is present when it isn’t.

By:
lfc1971
When: 18 Sep 20 21:08
Yes but even if it is very close to zero , and as I say it may be less accurate than that
You can have many more false positives , than true positives
By:
lfc1971
When: 18 Sep 20 21:09
When especially you have a situation as we have seen it in the UK over this last number of weeks
By:
lfc1971
When: 18 Sep 20 21:10
I think it is almost inevitable that dr crippen is right
By:
lfc1971
When: 18 Sep 20 21:12
In the real world
By:
politicspunter
When: 18 Sep 20 21:19
Does anyone on here do jigsaws?
By:
Fatslogger
When: 18 Sep 20 21:33

Sep 18, 2020 -- 9:08PM, lfc1971 wrote:


Yes but even if it is very close to zero , and as I say it may be less accurate than that You can have many more false positives , than true positives


This is possible, although unlikely for various reasons given on another thread but wouldn’t explain the recent increase in cases anyway, would it?

As we’ve both said it depends on how low the prevalence is. If you have a highly accurate needle in a haystack test that will pick up every real needle 100% of the time and correctly identify little bits of straw as not needles 99.95% of the time, which sounds really rather good, once you’ve got a haystack of 10000 bits of straw and 1 needle, it will (on average) find you 6 needles.

By:
lfc1971
When: 18 Sep 20 21:38
Well if the accuracy was 95% ( quite possible or perhaps worse) we would have hundreds of false positives for a handful of true positives
By:
lfc1971
When: 18 Sep 20 21:40
If it was 99.9% accurate we would still have more false positives than true positives
By:
lfc1971
When: 18 Sep 20 21:41
Now how accurate do you think it is likely to be , in the real world ?
By:
InsiderTrader
When: 18 Sep 20 22:09
The whole false positive question is one that has been ignored by MOST of the media.

Even in Spain that is weeks ahead of us deaths are still relatively low compared to other causes.

We need to learn to live with Covid. It is not the only killer out there.
By:
Mexico
When: 18 Sep 20 22:25
IT

Is this false positives an actual issue in the real or is it just something Icke's fans witter on about?

There was a spectator link posted earlier from an article this week. They claimed that the positive results were 99.4% accurate (the negative outcomes are far less accurate)
They seemed to think 99.4% was pretty good.

Are you claiming that this figure is untrue or maybe that we should be really worried that only 99.4% accurate. You haven't explained your position IT , you just seem to be blaming others.

Maybe you could explain , perhaps even mention where your "facts" come from?
By:
Fatslogger
When: 18 Sep 20 22:26

Sep 18, 2020 -- 9:41PM, lfc1971 wrote:


Now how accurate do you think it is likely to be , in the real world ?


It depends on what you mean by accurate. It’s detecting the Coronavirus very accurately. The test is amplifying viral DNA. If it picks it up, it can’t tell whether that’s dead DNA in a non infectious person, although I think the notion that this explains many positive results is false, or from live virus in someone who’s infectious. In hospital it really doesn’t affect what we do to distinguish, we’d manage the person the same, with careful isolation and the usual management of Covid, which isn’t mostly anything very clever unless they need respiratory support. For population screening the distinction doesn’t matter very much for the individual, who just has to isolate anyway because it would be a bonkers risk to assume dead virus. It probably also doesn’t matter that much for policy decisions, because it’s still people who’ve recently had the virus, even if you assume that a high proportion aren’t actively infectious.

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