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Newport West by election
Newport West by election
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Replies: 367
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Maybe Miss Jenkins works for the tories...
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would be fun if it happened,
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better get another can in the fridge just in case...
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It's a he, welsh journalist..
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Sorry, it's a fella.
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Turnout is 37.1%
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10000 will win this.
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All predictable as well,a turnout like that anyone can win and always against labour party how they wree ever those stupid prices was insane..
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around 24000 voters then
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23615
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What a farce that is someones prediction on twitter..
prediction for the Newport West by-election: Labour: 29% Conservatives: 27% UKIP: 22% PC: 7% LD: 3% Grn: 2% For Britain: 10% |
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Is it Gerald Batten?
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John curtce talking bollox,anyone could see this was going to be close on a poor turnout,curtice saying ukip vote would be good at 8% is he having a laugh we knew they would get at least 15%,what a bluffer..
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Something wierd going on here hamilton saying he would be happy with 8%?
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politics !
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If they get 15% they will be saying what a great result for ukip,pretty obvious in a leave seat with 37% turnout and a brexit crisis 75% of labour voters just sat at home..
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betting suggests its done and dusted
but its been wrong before |
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7350 con
2700 kipper 9300 lab nice won pp some small parties well! |
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did well
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can't be many by elections won with 9000 votes
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Like finding it on the street,pity there's such little money in the markets..
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Like finding it on the street,pity there's such little money in the markets..
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other parties must be gutted that less than 10k got an mp here!
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minor parties trebled their vote from 2017. up from 10% to 30%
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if ukips have voted tory, they won!
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Nice overall for me but the icing on the cake was...
politicspunter • February 28, 2019 7:23 PM GMT Also had some of Ladbrokes 30-40% Labour vote share at 9.5, now down to 6.0. Labour vote share was 39.6%. |
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I got 7/1 on that the grand total of £200,that's the problem just can't get a decent bet on,makes things interesting though while racings rubbish..
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nice one
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Anyone would think labour lost,win by 9% on a poor turnout i'd be amazed if they didn't near enough doubled that in a general election,going on about ukips 8% i was amazed they didn;t get higher with more off the tories...why do they read so much into these by elections..Glad you cleaned up,pity there's such little money in the markets on here.
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Now that the smoke has cleared, a chance to look at the result. Labour will be delighted to have hung on here. Paul Flynn was a popular MP and his legacy probably contributed to carrying them over the line. Corbyn, down in the UK and Wales polls, low turnout etc was a banana skin that they just managed to avoid. Conservatives actually did pretty well, all things considered. They must be wondering if they could maybe have won this if it weren't for UKIP. Con and UKIP vote tally combined was greater than Labour's victory mark. UKIP have to ask themselves a straight question- Do we wish to see a leave supporting candidate returned to Westminster? If the answer is yes then they shouldn't stand against one who has a decent chance of winning the seat. All of the other smaller parties did ok, particularly Renew who were competing in their first election I believe.
LAB-S&D: 38.6% (-12.7) CON-ECR: 31.3% (-8.0) UKIP-ENF: 8.6% (+6.1) PC-G/EFA: 5.0% (+2.5) LDEM-ALDE: 4.6% (+2.4) Greens-G/EFA: 3.9% (+2.9) Renew-EPP: 3.7% (+3.7) SDP-EFDD: 0.9% (+0.9) ATWAP-*: 0.9% (+0.9) D&V-*: 0.8% (+0.8) FBM-*: 0.7% (+0.7) |
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Nice one punter, couldn't lend us a fiver could you
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Never mind, should be another by election shortly in Peterborough and that is toss up country.
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What makes you think that in present circumstances UKIP voters would have voted Tory? Were there not a UKIP candidate (nor SDP) a fair number might have abstained. I know that I would have done and I voted Tory last time as I mistakenly thought they would deliver on the referendum result.
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I'm not saying that they all would have voted tory but a substantial number of them would have. Whether it would have given a different result, it's hard to say for certain.
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I hope your going to make a chunky donation to the food banks, I'm told nurses are having to use them now
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I'm sure that some would have voted tactically PP, but there is an adage "fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me". Tories have lost me for good. For the record my preference would be to vote SDP but, faute de mieux, I would hold my nose and vote UKIP rather than Tory or Labour.
Apologies for the late reply but Mrs F dragged me to the supermarket to replenish the emergency "No Deal" reserves before the shelves are cleared after we "crash" out or "Fall off Beachy Head" next week. |
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If you look at all the smaller parties down the bottom of the voting order there would probably be quite a few tory protest votes in amongst them. D and V are led by a former UKIP leadership candidate, as is ATWAP. The SDP are of course strong brexiteers and probably the FBM too. If you add the UKIP voting tally to that lot I make it roughly 12%. That's a lot of votes which if the tories had attracted two thirds of them, they would have won.
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Very true. You can see why they wouldn't want a general election or participation in a European Parliamentary election.
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great news that the Tories are being blamed by the hard right. It certainly appears to be splitting them.
Ordinary folk (people of working age) can get on with life without this disproportionate power being wielded by those with no economic tariff for their 40 year old worldview. |