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Newport West by election
Newport West by election
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I reckon...
For Britain 0.5% UKIP 5% Abolish the Welsh Assembly 0.5% Democrats and Veterans 0.3% If I was in Labour shoes, I would be much more concerned with how many votes they will lose to parties centre and left. You can bet your bottom dollar that some of these parties only fielded paper candidates at the 2017 general election. |
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Take the highly thought of young Green candidate Amelia Womack, the party deputy leader. She won't win but she will get votes and they will mostly come from Labour.
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Ladbrokes have a market up on the party to finish 3rd....
UKIP 2.00 Plaid Cymru 4.00 Abolish the Welsh Assembly 6.00 Liberal Democrats 7.00 Renew 13.00 Green 17.00 Conservatives 51.00 For Britain 51.00 Labour 51.00 SDP 51.00 Democrats and Veterans 101.00 |
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Another disastrous poll for labour yesterday youguv
Labour 31% Conservative 40% I was expecting to be closer on whats been going on this week the tory vite rock solid at 40% i find amazing,are people watching what i'm watching and things can only get better for them or stay the same.. |
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It's bad but it was 41-30 just over a week ago so from the same company so gap down a little.
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Thoight torys wouldv'e veen obliterated in newset polls,everything i've watched lately has shown them to be disastrous and i mean everything,so much so i've joined momentum.
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Plenty of Labour voters might abstain and cloud the issue.
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Every possibility.
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https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fvote-2012.proboards.com%2Fthread%2F12152%2Fnewport-west%3Fpage%3D10
Election Maps Uk estimate result at 41.7 Lab, 36.5 Con. |
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new com res poll out on twitter
from britain elects Westminster voting intention (ft. TIG): CON: 36% (-2) LAB: 34% (-3) LDEM: 8% (-2) TIG: 8% (+8) UKIP: 6% (-) GRN: 3% (-) via @ComRes |
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this from mid week too
Haddenham & Stone (Aylesbury Vale) result: GRN: 50.8% (+36.5) CON: 32.8% (-3.3) LDEM: 14.0% (+3.6) LAB: 2.5% (+2.5) Green GAIN from Conservative. No Ind(s) (-25.4) and UKIP (-13.9) as prev. good local green or a sign they are picking up, or a fluke result |
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In Newport West, I don't think there is much between UKIP, LibDem and Plaid Cymru. Green could surprise everyone here in the race for third. A very well thought of young candidate.
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The Haddenham & Stone (Aylesbury Vale) result was due to a local issue - HS2. Green candidate dead against it and it goes right through the area and across the golf course.
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There is a long standing proposal for a Newport bypass which the Green candidate could find useful here.
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The tory candidate Matthew Evans is focusing his campaign on local issues, in particular escalating the need for a Newport M4 relief road. Personally, I think that is a good tactic. It was proven many times in the 2017 General election that policies win votes in close seats.
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I have read quite a few concerns about the relief rd but even more about brexit. I am struggling to find Ruth Jones addressing either issue.
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If she doesn't waken up shortly, she could be in trouble.
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Agreed. Popped the point onto a twitter feed of hers. She is a local so must know. Perhaps it's out there I just haven't found it.
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On Labour vote share , Ladbrokes went 9.0 for 30-40%, cut it quickly to 6.0 and have now cut it again to 5.0. It still looks fair value.
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Some chatter about voting 'others' as GE won't be far off and can revert back then. Dangerous for Labour. Jones is out campaigning and reporting good feedback but if this is poorly planned they will pay for it. I hope there is a lot of oversight taking place.
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Westminster Voting Intention: CON: 41% (+1) LAB: 31% (-4) LDM: 8% (-2) UKIP: 6% (+3) GRN: 6% (+2) Desperate times for labour polls still giving torys 40 actaully going up unreal..an election must bw a certainty a total landslide on all recent polls.. |
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Westminster Voting Intention: CON: 41% (+1) LAB: 31% (-4) LDM: 8% (-2) UKIP: 6% (+3) GRN: 6% (+2) Desperate times for labour polls still giving torys 40 actaully going up unreal..an election must bw a certainty a total landslide on all recent polls.. |
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Stay calm.
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326 Politics
@326Pols 5h5 hours ago Westminster voting projection, turnout adjusted: LAB: 40% (+3) CON: 38% (-5) LIB: 11% (+1) @Survation, 15 Mar Changes with 18 Feb (Headline figures: LAB 39, CON 35, LIB 10) |
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Non of these polls make any sense,peter kellner categorically stayed would be suicide if labour didn't support another referendum even now on that poll it saus more people want to remain than any other option eeverything seems to contraduct itself..
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maybe the turnout adjusted aspect is paying too much attention
to the trend of folk saying they are never going to vote again if we dont leave with a dogs breakfast? |
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The polls are flip flopping so it would be sensible to take them with a pinch of salt for now imo.
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CON: 38% (-2)
LAB: 34% (-) LDEM: 8% (-) UKIP: 8% (+1) GRN: 3% (-) via @OpiniumResearch, 13 - 15 Mar |
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CON: 38% (-2)
LAB: 34% (-) LDEM: 8% (-) UKIP: 8% (+1) GRN: 3% (-) via @OpiniumResearch, 13 - 15 Mar |
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There must be a strong possibility of a very low turnout in this by election. Hard to say who that may favour, probably the tories.
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Even by their standards it's been a shocking few weeks for the Tories and it must surely impact them at the ballot box.
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Probably will but they won't be the only ones.
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Even with the media massed against Corbyn, Labour find themselves ahead. The Corbyn smears of 2017 backfired yet the tories and now The Notorious TIG have revisited this tactic. It is looking distinctly like the people aren't engaging with it or perhaps even actively disliking it for whatever particular reasons.
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Labour won this seat getting 52.3% and 22,723 votes at the 2017 general election. I don't think there is any chance whatsoever of those sort of numbers. There is a danger that voters are totally fed up with the current farcical situation and simply don't turn up on by election day or lend their vote to one of the smaller parties as a protest vote. That's bad news for both main parties here and no result will surprise me.
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...run a low profile campaign ...get the vote out
jobsagoodun? |
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Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 35% (+1) CON: 34% (-2) LDM: 8% (=) TIG: 7% (-1) UKIP: 6% (=) GRN: 3% (= Westminster Voting Intention: LAB: 35% (+1) CON: 34% (-2) LDM: 8% (=) TIG: 7% (-1) UKIP: 6% (=) GRN: 3% (= |
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Polls are all over the place at the moment. It's anyones guess where they will be come by election day, let alone next week.
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^precisely
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There must be some polls out somewhere tories are 15/2 to win the seat labour biggest prices 1/6,strange betting though with no brexit certainty yet..
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Referendum voting intention between staying in the EU or leaving on the terms negotiated by the government: Remain in the EU: 47% Leave w/ the deal: 32% via @YouGov, 14 - 15 Mar |