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'12 AUG 2018-A total of 14 more constituencies in Wales would vote Remain if there was a new Brexit referendum, pollsters have claimed.
Figures show areas including Rhondda, Newport, Swansea and Carmarthen would all change their vote if offered the chance - prompting calls by some for a second Brexit referendum.' pp: Any potential impact on the by-election (I know you feel it doesn't have as much influence as some think) ? |
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Labour are down in wales poll three days ago -8% lowest since may 2017 on those figures would lose 5 seats in wales..
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So you will be filling your boots on a Tory win in Newport West thegig ?
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I wouldn't like to call how much direct influence the remain/leave EU stuff will have but if national and Wales polls are correct, this result could be close, very close.
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At the current odds, there is only one party you can bet (and it isn't Labour).
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Also disastrius for labour in national assembley vote,labour would lose 8 seats -7% worst since april 2017 conservative gains unreal hadn't seen these polls just found them,worryingly tory vote rick solid labour would even lose wrexham..
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It's been close-ish a few times so a slim win in a by-election here, either way wouldn't be particularly telling imo. A collapse of their vote for either party would be alarming though.
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I hadn't seen these polls just found them,absolutely disastrous same % points through national polls as well -7 -8%,suppose the remain vote might give a little % boost but no love for labour in any polls anywhere..
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Would imagine both partys will really be going for it,for a by election the campaigning will be huge,any new polls around labour and remain will be a pointer to how much this seat will be influenced..
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http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/wp-content/uploads/sites/100/2019/02/February-2019.pdf
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With a view to lay it off when/if the price goes down ?
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Yes.
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Also had some of Ladbrokes 30-40% Labour vote share at 9.5, now down to 6.0.
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Would be a miracle if that price doesn't shorten,not unless a poll suddenly comes out with a massive move for labour on EU front..
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^9.5 seems a very big price(obv is now)
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40-50% at 2.25.
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40-50 2.25..
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Only 2.75 for 50-60 that looks a rancid price..
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In the present circumstances, surely Labour simply can't get over 50% ? On the other hand I can't see them getting less than 30%. If you have £100 stake and you place £72.73 on 30-40% at 2.25 and also place £27.27 on 30-40% at 6.0, your return will be £163.64.
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With such weak looking competition, unless you know some evidence to the contrary (about the strength of PC,LD's or maybe even Brexit party taking a punt)I would say they would share around 85% of votes cast.
In such circumstances I think Labour would win by 5-9%. 46% ish If the reported swap around from Leave to Remain in the constituency impacts on the day then those votes would surely benefit Labour more than the Cons. They may share nearer 90% of the vote (again with weak opposition from the smaller parties). In these circumstances Lab might tip just over 50%. Of course I could be utterly wrong ! |
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If TIGS throw their hat into the ring your 9.5 will look massive I think.
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Those tigs would get annihilated in wales,i don't think they will have a candidate if labour get over 50% they will be having a street party..
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There is always small parties at by elections that can erode votes. Some are genuine parties, some are independents and some are just cranks. So far I have discovered that there will be at least three of these..
The Abolish the Welsh Assembly party (speaks for itself). Ein Gwlad (A new Wales party that seem to be nationalist but more centre than Plaid Cymru). Renew Party (identifies as "centre-right on the economy and centre-left socially"). There have been local road upgrade issues so suspect an independent candidate to stand along those lines (a good local independent candidate can really hurt the big boys votes). Chuck in the monster raving loonies and it's getting a busy field, even before "the Independent Group" show their hand. |
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i think there was a hint that tig wont field a candidate here?
chuka in conversation with neil last night, but i may have misheard |
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Thanks Donny, didn't see that.
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it'll be on iplayer if you want to check what was said
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Was no way a bunch of blairites were going to show up in wales,another welsh poll today showing discontent with brexit happening so the breit vote is dying off slowly there as well so that might have a small impact on the tories.
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Was no way a bunch of blairites were going to show up in wales,another welsh poll today showing discontent with brexit happening so the breit vote is dying off slowly there as well so that might have a small impact on the tories.
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Was no way a bunch of blairites were going to show up in wales,another welsh poll today showing discontent with brexit happening so the breit vote is dying off slowly there as well so that might have a small impact on the tories.
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giggilo, got a link to that new welsh poll?
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-47394303
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thank you.
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As far as I can make out, both from this ICM poll and from other recent Wales polls, Labour are losing votes but they don't appear to be losing them to one particular party. Plaid Cymru seem to be benefiting the most but all are gaining some vote share from Labours losses.
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Looking at that ICM poll would seem unlikely torys can win the seat,i would imagine the torys will lose a bit of there vote as well
if there's more an anti brexit vote involved,that 40-50% bet looks more and more likely now.. |
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Just done some rough calculations based on recent Wales polling and for Newport West it suggests an outcome of...
Labour 45 Con 39 Plaid 4 Libdem 3.5 UKIP 3.5 Green 2 Others 3 Early days yet and await candidates declaring. That LibDem figure looks too low for me in a by election. They achieved 16.6% in 2010. |
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But of course that was before they became toxic due to their broken promise and their williongness to go along with austerity. I think the figure won't be far off for them. Your figures are very close to the 85% share for Lab/Con I suggested and even the result is nearly the same.....given your background on this I have to say I feel a little chuffed !
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You might have to de chuff yourself as more candidates and polls appear!
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