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Why was the next pm market closed and then re-opened?

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By:
Trainy
When: 12 Jun 17 19:27
i hope this is going to close tonight
By:
Fatslogger
When: 12 Jun 17 19:28
Seriously though, it's not a very BBC impartial sort of phrase. Presumably they were quoting an even more than averagely toadying backbench candidate for the Order of the Brown Nose.
By:
Fatslogger
When: 12 Jun 17 19:32

Jun 12, 2017 -- 7:27PM, Trainy wrote:


i hope this is going to close tonight


Thing is, I now make this a nailed on certainty barring her suddenly dying or something but nailed on isn't the criterion for forming a ministry so I think they may well wait on for full formal confirmation of DUP support or even for a Queen's Speech, although the latter would feel the wrong end point to me.

By:
jamesdean
When: 12 Jun 17 19:40
Betfair should either settle the market or make an announcement as to what they are waiting
on as there's obviously a lot of confusion, whoever is right or wrong
By:
kevinglass
When: 12 Jun 17 19:42
Some clarity would be useful as "forming a ministry" means little to me....
By:
Fatslogger
When: 12 Jun 17 19:45
I think they may have got slightly out of their depth on this one.
By:
Fatslogger
When: 12 Jun 17 19:45
May shortens further anyway, now 1.06-1.07.
By:
kevinglass
When: 12 Jun 17 19:47
If you google "formation of ministry" you get........nothing!

Well unless you're interested in the Church.
By:
Fatslogger
When: 12 Jun 17 19:48
So does Corbyn! If anyone wants to back him at 23s, I felt obliged to get another £400 down laying him there. There is no earthly way this parliament can make him PM, unless he lines up every non Tory, including the DUP!
By:
Fatslogger
When: 12 Jun 17 19:49
Well it's  mostly gone now. Don't think I've ever had a red above about £20k before but seriously, he should be in the high hundreds!
By:
jamesdean
When: 12 Jun 17 19:53
Someone wanting another £655 at 26's on JC.
By:
Betrescue Bob
When: 12 Jun 17 20:01
So here we are with just the DUP to conclude.  Now down to 1.06 with no to another election in 2017 as big as 1.39.  If talks break down and fail there will have to be another election as they wont support Labour under Jezza as he's seen as a) he's labour and b) an IRA cheerleader.  If there is another election this year Labour will no doubt win so the Tories won't go for one.  So other than tomorrow being Tuesday, 1.06 as the biggest certainty since Goliath went to give young David a good kicking...which he lost...
By:
bingo bongo
When: 12 Jun 17 20:04
a day is a long time in politics
By:
tobermory
When: 12 Jun 17 20:04
forming a ministry should simply mean appointing all the ministers of the government
By:
tobermory
When: 12 Jun 17 20:06

Jun 12, 2017 -- 7:48PM, Fatslogger wrote:


So does Corbyn! If anyone wants to back him at 23s, I felt obliged to get another £400 down laying him there. There is no earthly way this parliament can make him PM, unless he lines up every non Tory, including the DUP!


Corbyn was always a possibility . The DUP's list of things they want done are actually Corbyn policies , so The Tories will need make more concessions to them than Labour would .Corbyn wouldn't grovel to them to the extent the Tories will though.

By:
Fatslogger
When: 12 Jun 17 20:07

Jun 12, 2017 -- 7:53PM, jamesdean wrote:


Someone wanting another £655 at 26's on JC.


That must be a winner for bet rooted in emotion rather than rationality. As a thought experiment I'm going to try to calculate the probability:

DUP Tory deal falls through - perhaps we'll call that 1/10 (although I think a lot less likely than that)
SNP, LDs, Plaid and Greens back Labour at least on confidence and supply basis - quite plausible I think, perhaps 2/3
DUP backs Labour on similar basis - hard to evaluate as highly unnatural bedfellows and neither is much of a jump in to bed with natural foes kind of a party, certainly given Corbyn's perceived affinity with republicanism. I'm going to be generous and say 1/4 but suspect more like 1/50

So Corbyn should be about 750s. There's no way he could be PM without all of the above. Anyone disagree? I suppose the only joker is whether another general election without a government formed would lead to voiding as if not Corbyn would be loads shorter.

By:
tobermory
When: 12 Jun 17 20:10
Corbyn could be PM with just the 262 MPs he has , wouldn't need any formal arrangements

If the other parties feared an election they would make sure he stayed in No.10.
By:
Betrescue Bob
When: 12 Jun 17 20:10
They have to get it past the Queens Speach which they will with the DUP.  I'm certain BF wont conclude the market until that happens as that is effectively when the new govt is formed.  I have back Tess all the way down from 1.27 to 1.01 MASSIVELY and thought I'd won ten years supply of special brew when she went to see Liz and they suspended the market.  Ive been told three times in four days I will receive an email from BF confirming the ambiguity of their rules on this.  I have received nothing.
By:
Fatslogger
When: 12 Jun 17 20:11

Jun 12, 2017 -- 8:06PM, tobermory wrote:


Jun 12, 2017 --  7:48PM, Fatslogger wrote:So does Corbyn! If anyone wants to back him at 23s, I felt obliged to get another £400 down laying him there. There is no earthly way this parliament can make him PM, unless he lines up every non Tory, including the DUP!Corbyn was always a possibility . The DUP's list of things they want done are actually Corbyn policies , so The Tories will need make more concessions to them than Labour would .Corbyn wouldn't grovel to them to the extent the Tories will though.


Really? Don't see that at all. The crazy views on LGBT and abortion alone would probably talk him out of it even if they were interested the other way, plus hard to see them able to exert massive influence in a coalition of every non Tory in the house.

By:
Fatslogger
When: 12 Jun 17 20:15

Jun 12, 2017 -- 8:10PM, tobermory wrote:


Corbyn could be PM with just the 262 MPs he has , wouldn't need any formal arrangementsIf the other parties feared an election they would make sure he stayed in No.10.


I'm glad I didn't lay at 750 but this is still pie in the sky. If May hasn't been officially determined PM by this point, how on earth could Corbyn manage with vastly (in this context) fewer MPs? I understand he'd have the constitutional right to try but it would be unachievable without almost literally every non Tory in the house supporting him.

By:
tobermory
When: 12 Jun 17 20:16
The DUP propped up Labour for years in the 70s , when their MPs were even more far out than they are today (Ian Paisley and Enoch Powell)

They would hardly expect Corbyn to start flogging gays and Corbyn is hardly going to create a united Ireland so there would be no need to fall out .

As it is they appear to be demanding pensions triple lock and scrapping 'the bedroom tax' .
By:
Fatslogger
When: 12 Jun 17 20:16

Jun 12, 2017 -- 8:10PM, Betrescue Bob wrote:


They have to get it past the Queens Speach which they will with the DUP.

By:
Fatslogger
When: 12 Jun 17 20:16
I was saying you'll get your Special Brew in the end.
By:
tobermory
When: 12 Jun 17 20:17
it would be unachievable without almost literally every non Tory in the house supporting him.

They wouldn't have to support him though , just not vote against him on a confidence issue
By:
Betrescue Bob
When: 12 Jun 17 20:17
DUP 'will support the Tories for as long as Corbyn leads Labour'
By:
Betrescue Bob
When: 12 Jun 17 20:20
If I drink all of that Special Brew I might start to believe the silly beggars that think Labour won the election..
By:
Fatslogger
When: 12 Jun 17 20:20

Jun 12, 2017 -- 8:16PM, tobermory wrote:


The DUP propped up Labour for years in the 70s , when their MPs were even more far out than they are today (Ian Paisley and Enoch Powell)They would hardly expect Corbyn to start flogging gays and Corbyn is hardly going to create a united Ireland so there would be no need to fall out .As it is they appear to be demanding pensions triple lock and scrapping 'the bedroom tax' .


Fair point on the gay flogging (anything between consenting adults) but still think very unnatural bed fellows. I will accept your correction of my probabilities and call it 1/2 but I still think that's being generous with Corbyn's chances in at least a couple of places.

By:
Fatslogger
When: 12 Jun 17 20:21

Jun 12, 2017 -- 8:17PM, tobermory wrote:


it would be unachievable without almost literally every non Tory in the house supporting him.They wouldn't have to support him though , just not vote against him on a confidence issue


They would have to support him, because every Tory would vote against.

By:
Fatslogger
When: 12 Jun 17 20:22
As in against Corbyn, or the Queen's speech, obviously for a no confidence motion, in the wildly unlikely event it would ever get that far.

How would you assign the probabilities?
By:
Betrescue Bob
When: 12 Jun 17 20:23
They dont have to do anything  - they could abstain but regardless of big Ian, they will never suppport Corbyn
By:
tobermory
When: 12 Jun 17 20:24
The Tories would never vote down a Corbyn Government unless they had a new leader that was looking good in the polls.

If Corbyn became PM with a minority he would right away be agitating for a new election within months , but would need Tory support for it
By:
Betrescue Bob
When: 12 Jun 17 20:25
The opposition don't have enough votes to gain a vote of no confidence, even if DUP abstain.  That is unless a few Tory MPs have a few cans of my special brew and vote against
By:
Fatslogger
When: 12 Jun 17 20:35

Jun 12, 2017 -- 8:24PM, tobermory wrote:


The Tories would never vote down a Corbyn Government unless they had a new leader that was looking good in the polls.If Corbyn became PM with a minority he would right away be agitating for a new election within months , but would need Tory support for it


Yes but Corbyn would need to command a majority of the house to become PM in the first place! Or are you saying the Tories would abstain to avoid another general election and let him be PM? That's pretty outlandish.

By:
tobermory
When: 12 Jun 17 20:42
The DUP could effectively put Corbyn in if they pull out of talks..

But yes The Tories could pull out of the DUP deal themselves and let Corbyn in

May is obviously just a stopgap , can never recover her authority .

But to have another leadership election to produce another PM without a mandate or a majority will piss people off at them even more

They could have their leadership election in opposition , then they would be in a better position imo . They could prevent Corbyn doing anything too left wing , and they could force an election whenever they liked ( obviously waiting til the new guy was looking good in the polls)
By:
Sybil Thorndike
When: 12 Jun 17 20:44
Hypothetical now, but if May was unable to form a government she would inform Queen and call another General Election. Not going to happen.
By:
tobermory
When: 12 Jun 17 20:49
She cannot call another election herself.

Fixed term parliament act requires a parliamentary vote , either 2/3 majority or a no confidence vote

The Tories would hardly table a no confidence vote in themselves !
By:
jamesdean
When: 12 Jun 17 20:53
She should be 1.01 when you listen to all things considered
By:
Sybil Thorndike
When: 12 Jun 17 20:55
Fixed term parliament act does not apply when there is no Parliament
By:
tobermory
When: 12 Jun 17 21:05
No , a parliament has been elected so must meet
By:
Sybil Thorndike
When: 12 Jun 17 21:23
So there could be a situation where one side has most MPs but does not have a majority but does not want to call an election and will not vote against itself, what then? Parliament sitting without government until the fixed term is up?
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