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General election betting
General election betting
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Individual constituency polls are very expensive. Ashcroft did a number of these in the 2015 general election and they were pretty accurate, particularly the Scottish ones which predicted the SNP landslide. I think the ones he has on his site now are not based on actually polling constituents.
The best site for me is this one... http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html You can check individual seats plus input your own figures. |
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Interesting Meadow. Is that your website?
Were those charts on the Ashcroft website real polls for 2017 by constituency or something else? |
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Meadow- hills go under or over 8.5 tory seats in Scotland have gone under your view please
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Hey Meadow been looking recently at Labour over 200 seats at 13-10 yes I think Jeremy has made ground up but whether they can get this im not sure, your view on this please
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thanks for your views meadow be lucky
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Cheers for that Meadow
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If anyone's interested in a couple of risky seat stabs for a couple of pounds you could do worse than try...
Labour to win Darlington at 11/4 with bet365 and skybet. Labour to win Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East at 5/1 on betfair sportsbook, paddypower, betfred and skybet. |
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Tories look away now!
Yougov poll tonight.. Con 42 (-1) Labour 38 (+2) LibDem 9 (nc) UKIP 4 (nc) Gap down to 4 from 7. There is also a constituency Yougov poll in the Times forecasting a hung parliament. |
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don't care what the odd probably rogue poll says. be amazed if when push comes to shove labour get more than low 30s
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Worrying times. See overall majority is now 1.2.
Can you imagine the chaos in the Brexit negotiations is May fails to land the 1.2 shot? 1.2 shots get beaten everyday! |
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If you believe the polls and think Labour are going to cause an 'upset' the financial markets may be the best option to make some money.
Once again this morning the FTSE has opened unchanged/small up, completely ignoring the polls. It's still hovering around all time highs. |
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Certainly the companies that make the pampers and tena brands will see a boost to their profits today.
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IPSOS Mori for STV reporting a Scottish Poll of SNP 43, Con 25, Lab 25 Libdems 5.
STV say that would result in SNP 50 seats, SCON 6, Lab 1 LibDem 1 Labour threatening to overtake Tories in Scotland again. See my post 4.30pm yesterday for how this could pan out. |
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Sterling bounces as new polls lean PM May's way
www.nasdaq.com/article/sterling-bounces-as-new-polls-lean-pm-mays-way-20170531-00974 |
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The panelbase poll is out of date (19th-23rd May). It was conducted at the time of the Manchester bombing and really shouldn't have been released.
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7/2 7/2 7/27/2 7/2 7/27/2 7/2 7/2. Is all Billy's are offering. They do not want your money because they know it is increasingly likely that Corbyn can win. Corbyns horse has been let go and he is coming with a late run at a perfect moment in the election.
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Yougov tonight...
Con 42 (-1) Labour 39 (+3) LibDem 7 (-2) UKIP 4 (nc) Gap down to 3 from 7. If this trend continues a hung parliament looks likely. |
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If this were to happen it would be truly sensational , a lot depends on Labour getting their vote out and especially the youngsters who say they will support Jeremy
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If we get to a hung parliament who could form a government? The Tories could only do it with support from UKIP (likely zero mps) or some of the Northern Ireland parties (clearly not SinnFein).
Labour could call on the support of everyone else plus some of the Northern Ireland group. Jeremy could be the next Prime Minister. |
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or another election
corbyn may not be able to count on his own mps, |
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If there is bad weather on Thursday could this affect the elderly vote proportionately more ?
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Overall majority out to 1.25 now
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I know this is short odds but I can't see any other result. On the Betfair exchange UKIP are 1.36 to get 5% or less of the vote. In virtually every opinion poll they are polling 4 or 5% (there are rounding factors to achieve the nearest whole number).
The key thing is, UKIP are not standing in all constituencies. They are standing in seats that in total includes approx two thirds of their previous vote. They can therefore reasonably only score two thirds of what they are polling, which brings them to somewhere between 2.66% and 3.33%. How can their vote be higher than 5%? |
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Bloomberg report:U.K. Pollsters See May Upping Majority Even as Lead Shrinks
www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-01/u-k-pollsters-see-may-increasing-majority-even-as-lead-shrinks |
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A majority of 40? If that is correct now and with the "lead shrinking" what is it going to be next week?
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Meadow what was the situation in 2015 with the polls? I remember some people were shocked the Tories won then. Indeed they only offered the EU referendum because they thought they had no chance of getting a majority.
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CON 33 (-3)
LAB 50 (+9) LD 11 (-3) UKIP 3 (-3) GRN 2 (-1) 26th-31st May Yougov London poll. |
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Mayism ........... still getting at Jeremy .. he has got to her real bad .. he seldom mentions the ........ U TURN .. Lady .. ? no election on my agenda ..
ITS GOOD TO TALK .. to your ENEMIES .. .......SHE IS NO ROBIN HOOD ..? ..Takes from the ..poor .. |
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Panelbase
CON: 44% (-4) LAB: 36% (+3) LDEM: 7% (-) UKIP: 5% (+1) GRN: 3% (+1) Lead cut from 15 to 8 |
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The fieldwork on that Panelbase poll is 26th May- 1st June.
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Wales yougov poll...
Labour 46% (+2) Conservative: 35% (+1) Plaid Cymru: 8% (-1) Lib Dems: 5% (-1) UKIP: 5% (nc) |
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Labour very high 18-24 year olds.
I guess they want the free education. But will they vote as most of the university types will be off on holiday somewhere. |
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This is the crucial question of the election. If they do any result is possible.
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No overall majority is favourite on here. That's just silly.
I reckon people made up their mind the day the election was announced that May should continue. All this kerfuffle since is irrelevant imo. |