Politics
General election betting
|
By:
|
|
By:
Richmond Park...Libdems 1.91 Betfred, Conservatives 2.38 Williamhill.
|
|
By:
It will be interesting to see how the polls go over the next few weeks, and in my opinion they are more likely to close than widen.
The latest Yougov poll has CON/LAB shares on 45/29 from 49/24 on 19 April, and several other polls have labour up 1 to 2 points. In the 1983 election which this election is being compared against when the campaign started Labour were polling anywhere between 31% and 37%. But they had a disaster of a campaign poorly organised with a manifesto full of REAL left wing pledges. This labour manifesto will be crucial but it has been promised that it will be fully funded which means it should be grounded in reality. In the 1983 campaign support for Labour went from the mid 30's to the Mid 20's eventually having only 27.6% of the vote. Labour started this campaign on around 25% and have already moved up to 27/29 in 4 recent polls. Five weeks is a long time in politics |
|
By:
Lid Dem suffered in the last election due to their partnership with the ruling Conservative Party. As they are no longer (and Brexit) I can see the likes of Cable (at Least) could creep back into Parliament in June.
Zac at 2.38 to win Richmomd Park is value (I think) - the locals still like him even though he backed the wrong "horse" last time. |
|
By:
There is an interesting Scotland poll out today from Yougov...
SNP 41 Conservative 28 Labour 18 LibDem 7 Scottish Green 3 UKIP 2 The Conservative figure is similar to previous recent polls as is LibDem. What strikes me is the Labour figure apparently at the expense of the SNP. Labour have been down to 13% regularly in recent Scottish cross breaks, this is a move up for them. Have they reached their core vote and are climbing back up a little? |
|
By:
|
|
By:
Does anyone have any views on the most seats Tory party will get?
|
|
By:
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2017/apr/27/lib-dems-shouldnt-count-on-remain-votes-the-data-looks-bleak
The above article is predicting 422 seats for the tories, labour 150, lib dems 6, |
|
By:
When I wrote the original post my thinking was that the LibDems had backed themselves into a "remain" corner which effectively only appealed to 48% of the electorate, dangerously similar to UKIP on the leave front. That was obviously going to cause them massive problems, not only in winning seats but in retaining the ones they already hold. In Scotland, where ten of their top forty three target seats are, the remain card doesn't wash at all as the other main parties are also remain supporting. Even Ruth Davidson of the Tories was involved in live tv debates for that option. The LibDems could be in a lot of trouble.
|
|
By:
Thank you Mighty White I have backed over 376 seats and a smaller bet under 395 works out about 9/1
|
|
By:
the middle that is
|
|
By:
|
|
By:
Labour are showing signs of a modest recovery in the last couple of opinion polls released, the yougov Scotland one and the opinion one released tonight.
|
|
By:
|
|
By:
There is another opinion poll out tonight from ORB, a company I'm not familiar with. It has Con 42 Lab 31. What's happening?
|
|
By:
Now hearing tonight's yougov also has the Tory lead cut.
|
|
By:
yougov...Con 44 Lab 31 hmmm
|
|
By:
In less than two weeks in the Youguv poll we've had
19 apr - Con 48 Lab 24 21 apr - Con 48 Lab 25 26 apr - Con 45 Lab 29 30 apr - Con 44 Lab 31 These may well be the easy fruit to switch but with five full weeks still to go anything can happen. The appearance of momentum can be a dangerous thing. I put the latest Youguv poll into the election predictor - http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.html - 44% tory, 31% Lab, 11% lib, 6 UKIP, 2% green and it had Labour on 204 seats - with no more movement!!! - Labour 200+ seats is 6.0 on betfair Just for fun try in a 39% tory, 34% Lab, 10% lib, 5 UKIP, 2% green into the election predictor - Frightening isn't it. National Prediction: Conservative short 4 of majority |
|
By:
** should read ** Labour 200 - 249 seats is 6.0 on betfair - 250 - 299 seats is 22 :)
|
|
By:
Folks this morning are indicating that Conservative, LibDem and UKIP campaigns are centred solely on Brexit. Labour don't seem to be and SNP as normal are just asking Scottish voters for support whatever. Have Con and LibDem backed themselves into a one trick pony corner?
|
|
By:
Thanks Martin, it's a breath of fresh air to have a poster discussing polls and betting.
|
|
By:
Labour at over 6.0 on betfair 30-35% seems good value.
|
|
By:
I had a little on at 8.2 last week - as well as a few pennies on 35-40% - hey who knows
 I don't think there going to be another sudden rush for Labour like there has been over the last 12 days, but I wouldn't be surprised if in two weeks some polls have Labour on 32% - 33%, and the Tories in the 41% - 43% range. Still a healthy Tory lead but the narrative will have changed by then from a Labour bloodbath, to worries about a hung parliament. Theresa May is no Thatcher and Brexit means Brexit can only go so far. Labour's Manifesto will be nowhere near as left wing as people think, and miles away from the 1983 "longest suicide note in history". There is no Lib/SDP election pact this time to suck away centrist labour supporters The amount of internal bickering within the party has subsided with people in election mode (this happened before last years local elections), which is helpful. Still a long way to go but Labour have had a solid start. |
|
By:
Personally despite the uptick in polling I'm still looking at the 20% mark. I can't explain the polling, people don't seem to have suddenly thought 'Oh Labour, they'd be good for me' so I do wonder what it's about.
|
|
By:
The Labour numbers had been artificially suppressed since last summer when the PLP tried to get rid of Corbyn. We've effectively had two years of vilification of Corbyn by the MSM and establishment Labour. He survived. The general public who in general don't pay that much attention to politics have superficially regarded Corbyn as toxic.
But as I mentioned above, just before last year's local election when the Labour party wasn't actively tearing itself apart, there were three yougov polls which had Labour support on 31/33/34 - leading the Tories (mainly due to UKIPS pre-referendum surge). But those sort of numbers are indicative of Labours natural support. All that's happened is that without a self imposed foot (sic) on it's neck it's returned to it's natural level. That why I think polling level of 33/34% will be possible in the next two weeks. Whether they can get any higher though is the $64K question |
|
By:
|
|
By:
|
|
By:
|
|
By:
Meadow X1 • April 30, 2017 10:46 AM BST
Labour at over 6.0 on betfair 30-35% seems good value...............filthy bet no wauy this happening. |
|
By:
Well, as the last three opinion polls from different companies have Labour at 31,30, and 31 and all showing an increase in support then why would over 6.0 not be value? Over a grand has been traded at odds down to as low as 5.2.
|
|
By:
I had a quick look at turnouts when there were short gaps between elections since the Great Patriotic War II
1950 - 83.9%, 1951 - 82.6% 1964 - 77.1%, 1966 - 75.8% 1974(1) - 78.8%, 1974(2) - 72.8% Not much of a data set to work with, but taking the mid-point of those three drops in turnout gives the following prediction for this year's turnout 2015 - 66.4%, 2017 - 63.5% The midpoint of the bookies predictions is around 61.0%. Mmm, I think laying the options below 60.0% is the bet here. |
|
By:
But this isn't like any other General Election before. This is a rubber stamping exercise. Even Remainers are saying they will vote for May. They think she is the best bet for soft Brexit.
You get a high turnout when people are steamed up. They're not. |
|
By:
At the moment you're quite correct it is a rubber stamping exercise. - but, the polls have moved
- the last three polls have Labour on 30,31,31 - after 12 days campaigning from 25/26 when the election was called. The Tories are still between 42 and 47, so they have a good cushion, but a week is a long time in politics - five weeks must be an eternity! |
|
By:
Labour seats are 152.5 (5/6 lower or higher) with bet365 and skybet. I think this is too low and have wagered they will be higher.
|
|
By:
I can't see it being that low either. If you put the last 4 polls into - http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.html
You get Labour seat numbers with 170, 178, 204 and 215 seats. I simply can't see the Tory poll number staying at 46/47 - 40/42 is more likely. The Tory vote % since 1979 have been - 43.9, 42.4, 42.2, 41.9, 30.7, 31.7, 32.4, 36.1, 36.8. I don't believe that the Tories and May are that popular, it's just that the Labour vote has been suppressed by the party infighting, and the MSM vilification of Corbyn. These first move in the polls are the core Labour voters re-asserting themselves. Labour can't win elections with just the core vote, but they should be able to keep their seat number above 200. |
|
By:
I use Baxters site (electoralcalculas) as a basis for nearly all my political bets. If you look at the polls from a week or so ago you will find a higher "don't know" figure when asking 2015 Labour voters their voting intention. On the most recent polls that figure is down and the Labour vote is up indicating to me that Labour voters will continue to support the party irrespective of who is the leader of the other main parties. With this in mind I entered values on the chart of Labour 29/30 and Conservative 44/45. This gives Labour seats of 193,191,203 and 194. Note Baxter also deducts 1.1% from the Labour total for "poll bias".
|
|
By:
With you on the over 152.5 and backed under 165 with tote making middle a10 chance
|
|
By:
|
|
By:
Quite a lot of the polling companies allocate the DK's to the party they voted for last in their methodology so a lot of that should have already been taking into account.
|
|
By:
*taken
|