Politics
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
These 817 comments are related to the topic:
General election betting
General election betting
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 817
|
By:
How low will tories go prior to election day now down to 1.04
|
|
By:
Labour seats on here.
100-149 3.4 to lay. £110 available.  150-199 1.96 to back. £105 available. |
|
By:
I wonder with some of the polls suggesting a lower tory lead over Labour are we seeing the prospects of Big tory majority looking less likely , the Social care plans don't seem to have gone down to well maybe Labour could get 200 + plus seats
|
|
By:
Certainly looks a possibility as this is a huge wobble weekend for the tories. Still a long time left (in political terms) before the election and without doubt there'll be more twists and turns. On the 200 labour seats front i think i'd be an odds on layer at 150-199.
|
|
By:
Back from a lovely break in Mallorca. Had a look through all the markets and difficult to find any definite value although the Labour total seats at around the 175 mark may still be too low. The next couple of opinion polls will be crucial as it will give a fairly accurate guide as to how badly the social care manifesto policy has derailed the Conservatives now that folks have had a chance to consider their voting intentions.
|
|
By:
for the many not the few
|
|
By:
the break in campaigning may have done for accuracy of polls
as a guide to june 8, |
|
By:
Break in campaigning will halt the momentum Labour looked to be gaining, imo.
I'd expect the Tory lead in the polls to increase between now and polling day. I'm politically agnostic but I think May is having a nightmare campaign. She looks uncomfortable and irritable on the campaign and the strong and stable leadership line just isn't believable. If she caves in to a few back benchers over social care, it doesn't bode well when she's faced with 27 EU leaders. |
|
By:
|
|
By:
Latest you guv poll Tory 43 Labour 38
|
|
By:
Corbyn's comments as reported this morning not helpful to Labour, who I think need to move the debate to domestic issues to make any further inroads.
|
|
By:
Jeremy can't help himself just when the tide was turning he comes out with more sh1t
|
|
By:
Just when the tide was turning is the understatement of this election so far. Folks obviously like what Jeremy is saying and Theresa has been found out.
The bookies may still be underestimating Labour seats. |
|
By:
Expecting at least five opinion polls tonight mainly for Sunday papers. First one out is opinion/observer...
Con 45 (-1) Lab 35 (+2) LibDem 7 (-1) UKIP 5 (nc) Fieldwork Tuesday and Wednesday of this week. Same trend, Tories down, Labour up, gap down from 13 to 10. |
|
By:
Comres...
Con 46 (-2) Lab 34 (+4) LibDem 8 (-2) UKIP 5 (nc) Fieldwork Wednesday-Friday this week. Tories down, Labour up, gap down from 18 to 12. |
|
By:
Still a big lead for the tories. The other question is would this play out nationally ot is it ust a case of labour stacking votes where they already have mps.
The biggest threat to the tories in this election was a resurgence of the lib dems pro europe ticket this could have taken some tory seats. With a 10% difference it looks like labour will still be losing seats to the tories. The size of majority will obviously be less than initially predicted but it will still be a decent one. |
|
By:
I have the Tory majority at around 80-90 at the moment. It's possible the voting intentions are stabilising but the trend is definitely favouring Labour.
|
|
By:
Orb/ Sunday Telegraph...
Con 44 (-2) Labour 38 (+4) LibDem 7 (nc) UKIP 5 (-2) Fieldwork Wednesday, Thursday this week. Tories down, Labour up, gap down from 12 to 6. |
|
By:
Yougov/ Times
Con 43 (nc) Labour 36 (-2) LibDem 9 (-1) UKIP 4 (nc) Fieldwork Thursday and Friday. Tories no change, Labour down, gap up to 7 from 5. |
|
By:
Very mixed bag of polls there , its been a very strange week whilst I think it shows the Tories still ahead I think theres still a lot to play for and it can change , I doubt Jeremy can win but he can make Chairman Mays dreams of big majority pie in the sky , and if the truth be known she doesn't deserve a big majority
|
|
By:
much may depend on how strong lib dem vote is in south west
they have been pretty much cut out of the national coverage |
|
By:
|
|
By:
yes meadow, and he hasnt had a good campaign so far
|
|
By:
what is not in doubt is we're looking at biggest combined % for the main 2 parties in decades and decades. with their purpose seemingly served most of the UKIP vote has returned to the tories and the hapless lib dems under a non entity of a leader have hopelessly misjudged the mood in pitching for the remain vote when most people outside the westminster bubble and metropolitan elite just want the government to get on with it now
|
|
By:
|
|
By:
UKIP only got one seat in the last election so if their voters switched to Labour would it make a difference?
|
|
By:
UKIP got 12.9% of the vote in the 2015 General election and by votes cast were the third biggest party.
|
|
By:
All well and good but it doesn't work like that .
|
|
By:
best part of 3 million UKIP voters in 2015 looking elsewhere this time. that's a huge number
|
|
By:
|
|
By:
Survation....
Con 43 (nc) Labour 37 (+3) LibDem 8 (nc) UKIP 4 (nc) Gap down to 6 from 9. |
|
By:
Doubts now if the above survation poll is genuine. May be genuine and leaked or else someone at it.
|
|
By:
The figures are correct, it was leaked.
|
|
By:
ICM new poll today...
Con 45 (-1) Labour 33 (+1) LibDem 8 (nc) UKIP 5 (nc) Gap down from 14 to 12. |
|
By:
A word on the methodology of different polling companies. ICM and Comres use a system of weighting that greatly favours the Conservatives. It is based on likelihood to vote based on age and gives heavy weighting to older more affluent voters who are core Conservative voters. In the latest Comres poll eg where the Tories have a lead of twelve, if all weighting was removed the lead would actually be four.
Polling companies are assuming that young voters aged 18-24 who express a preference when polled may not actually show up at the ballot box. Labour are trying to target this group and also folks who rarely vote. |
|
By:
nice one meadow
|
|
By:
so who wins?
|
|
By:
Well sadly I am noticing something that doesn't suit my party, the SNP. First of all the Conservative vote is strong and stable (!) in Scotland at around the 29% mark. SNP are down to around 42%. If the Conservatives can get their vote concentrated on certain SNP seats where it is a straight fight between them and SNP they will make some good gains.
What I am now seeing is that the Labour vote in Scotland is picking up noticeably. This is bad news obviously for the SNP in working class areas where formerly Labour was in control but it may be bad news too for the Conservatives who need that Labour unionist vote in some of their target seats if they are to defeat the SNP incumbent. It's bad news too all round for the Scottish LibDems as they need all the other unionist parties votes to gain seats. I am keeping a close eye on the Scottish constituencies betting markets. At the moment I estimate Conservative will win with a majority of 80-100 seats. |
|
By:
National polls don't really tell us more than the general trend.
Are there any decent polls for the each constituency? All I can find is: https://dashboards.lordashcroftpolls.com/Storyboard/RHViewStoryBoard.aspx?RId=%C2%B2&RLId=%C2%B2&PId=%C2%B1%C2%B4%C2%BA%C2%B5%C2%B4&UId=%C2%B4%C2%B9%C2%B9%C2%B9%C2%BC&RpId=2 |
|
By:
Almost everywhere seems to have May over Corbyn as PM preference even if they will vote Labour. Not sure when these polls are from though.
|