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General election betting
General election betting
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Replies: 817
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Can't wait for the survation excuses,laughable don't thionk anyone thought the lead was below 7-8% at worst..
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Can't wait for the survation excuses,laughable don't thionk anyone thought the lead was below 7-8% at worst..
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ICM and Comres use methodology that greatly favours the Tories.
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8/9/10 its still a lot closer than 1 that was just utter nonsense..
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If ICM didn't apply the weighting that they do their polls would show a lead of 0-3.
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We should be lumping on labour then.
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Here is the Con lead on the ICM opinion polls since the election was called....
21,22,21,19,19,18,22,20,14,14,12,11,11,12. |
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Here is survations for the same timeframe....
11,17,18,12,9,6,1,1. |
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Like i said if you believe survations anywhere near and that ones only 3% then it would be wide open that would be no overall..
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ICM and Comres do indeed use weighting based on previous elections. Their the 'intelligent' polls. Survation and Youpoll are silly phone and online polls where people will give opinion but not vote.
50-74@ 6's for me  |
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How do ICM and Comres contact people?
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ICM/Comres/Ashcroft are indeed weighted. They are the more 'intelligent' polls. Survation and Youguv are just LOL - online or phone people who talk but don't vote.
50-74 @6's for me |
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Maybe it's by jungle drums.
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the french opinion polls were much more grouped and turned out to be accurate
if we assume our polls are wrong and take an average (mean) then its all a bit surreal surely somebody has spent a fortune and got it right ! maybe we are seeing different swings in different areas, and they will have to apologise again and alter their data a bit more, but next time will bring different nuances. |
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Trying to follow these election polls is getting a bit like trying to predict which strain of bird flu is going to cause the pandemic...
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Comres...
Con 44 (-3) Lab 34 (-1) LD 9 (+1) UKIP 5 (+1) Greens 2 (+1) |
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ICM/Comres don't 'favour' the tories they just add weight to over 60 vote which has proven time and time again to be right...Brexit, 2015, the over 60's are overwhelmingly blue...they have nothing else to do apart from vote on Thursday.
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The only polling company that got the last election spot on was...
survation. |
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I find that hard to believe
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I agree with that bit, but do you really expect them to turn out? I don't. The grey vote ruins everything unfortunately. People who are going to be dead in a few years shaping the way the country is going to be run in the future. Don't sit right with me.
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There's also the possibilty the labour vote could completely collapse if voters don't think they can influence the result in anyway especially if they are seeing these polls showing 10% leads they are huge..
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There's also the possibilty the labour vote could completely collapse if voters don't think they can influence the result in anyway especially if they are seeing these polls showing 10% leads they are huge..
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Let's see what the other polling companies produce tonight. The two companies that always show a huge advantage to the Tories are out of the way.
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Meadow,
£250k available to lay the Tories getting most seats at 1.07. Must be value if you are that confident in survation. |
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My heart says Survation, my brain says ICM.
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Cj posted on here yesterday on the canvassing said it looked grim for labour he was right at the last election when polls were saying to close to call nonsense and i got a couple of emails about the 4 constituencies he canvasses for the labour part all were in trouble and 2 of themj were supposedly safe labour seats.Those big poll leads seem to confirm everything on any evidence i've seen,especially when the polls always overestimate the labour vote 12%is probably put but 7-8% looks spot on..
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Here are the Comres figures before weighting (this is the actual responses they received)...
CON 36 Labour 35 LibDem 8 UKIP 4 Green 2 SNP 4 Plaid Cymru 1 Prefer not to say 2 Don't know 8. |
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Here are the ICM figures before weighting (actual responses received)...
Con 36 Labour 31 LibDem 5 UKIP 4 SNP 4 Green 2 Would not vote 5 Don't know 11 refused 2 |
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TNS poll...
CON: 43% (-) LAB: 38% (+5) LDEM: 7% (-4) UKIP: 4% (-) GRN: 2% (-1) (via @TNS_UK / 01 - 07 Jun) |
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My feeling is that Labour have campaigned heavily to the young but may only increase their appeal in safe Labour areas whilst slipping aaway in marginals. Almost everyoe I have spoken to have said they have voted Labour but cannot find the wherewithal to vote for Corbyn.Not very scientific (apologies meadow)but my money is on 75-100 majority.
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corbyn and the left's main aim has been to sshire up the current number of seats or thereabouts so they've got some hope of hanging on post election. he's hardly gone anywhere which isn't a banker labour seat
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shore up
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tree, my sentiments exactly,but my money is on a 100+ majority. Would also add that the closeness of the polls will ensure the Tory support comes out in large numbers.The thought of Corbyn as PM absolutely horrifies them.
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Have only just seen todays paper headlines
 jeez that's pretty disgraceful stuff,this must surely point to an annihlation with a british public who suck this sort of stuff up!! |
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The Tory Filth press bIllionaires are in interested in nothing but their money , power and priviledge , they will go to any length to protect this , twas evr thus
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If folks wish to place their money on a 100+ Tory majority please feel free to do so. However, I think you will lose your dosh.
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Think i've got six bets running on and they all look certaintys,will have to lay corbyn for PM as well to get the full house may as well make as much as you can,opportunitys like this don't come round often license to print money.I made 20k on the last general election,won't be as much this time round but it's not a thing i usually even bother with,the books just seem to be clueless..
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The only certainty is uncertainty
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