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Anyone any ideas as to what caused the spike in the Remain price at the weekend? My 1.54 was taken early on Saturday morning and my 1.55 at about the same time on Sunday. There was a similar movement 3 weeks ago, but there were obvious reasons for it, but I can't see anything that would have caused the blip on this occasion. Seems a bit random.
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Correction- Sunday and Monday morning
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Can only think it was because some polls were showing it as 50 /50
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fairly big price movement again today
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yes do not know what to make of it
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I guess it's down to the fact that official campaigning is just getting underway, hopefully there will be more spikes to come (that's from my point of view of course) I hope I can get 1.6 plus at some point.
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I think remain is the bet I have been having a few quid on each day so riding the waves at the moment.
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1.4 now
 Thanks to the floppy-haired buffoon and his big mouth, don't think we will see 1.6 again. Apparently, I can cash out now for 500 quid  I don't think so. |
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It pains me to admit but I've had a dollop on remain but by the looks of it not quite as much as yourself Des. I do tend to be cautious about large bets like this but unfortunately these things tend to swing back to the establishment the closer we get to polling day and barring a major calamity I'm happy to let this one ride all the way.
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Yep, me too. I hope that there will be some more spikes, but I doubt it. Unless there is another "cologne"-type incident, I can't see anyone on the OUT side that will inspire ordinary people to vote for out. if Johnson and gove are the best they have to offer, it will not be nearly enough, imo.
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I agree remain will win for the reasons given above although I am voting out no doubt.
I think whoever wins it will be a 'poison chalice' . The EU could implode ,immigration coupled with more terrorism could cause major rifts and recriminations. Whoever wins the referendum will get the blame irrespective and the losing side will say'We told you so' if any of these scenarios happen . |
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Agreed. We're fuccked by Bubba if we leave and Pedro if we stay but either way we are biting that pillow.
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Now 1.35-1.36
The next 12 hours are the time to lay 'Remain' for as much as you dare. The Treasury, US finance secretaries, the CBI, the military top brass and now Obama has given his thoughts. There are no more big cards in the deck for the Remain campaign to play, short of getting the Clintons over, or the return of the Messiah. The upside to this bet could be very rapid, if Obama learns how the EU works in the next few days, and if the polls this week don't move. |
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I've pretty much done that Bongo. If it rides all the way down and remain win I'll make a good few hundred now without any threat to my original stake. If it subsequently edges back up to over 1.50 I'll be back like a rat up a drainpipe.
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Now 1.35-1.36
The next 12 hours are the time to lay 'Remain' for as much as you dare. Wrong. it was 1.32 5.5 hours ago, that's when I was laying (not all of it, of course; that won't be necessary) if it does get back up to 1.5 plus -which I doubt- I might go in again with the rest of my stake. If the OUT campaign had some more credible people in their corner, I would be looking for 1.7 or so, but they don't. All they have is a mealy-mouthed wimp and a posh, bumbling idiot. Good luck with that! |
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There's an Abba song which includes lines like "I've played all my cards . . no more Ace to play"
The remain campaign has played their ace. They only have grubby stuff left, another corruption story or two, overt financing of special interest groups, some more crimes committed by jobless immigrants ( even though it's only tenuously an EU issue ). The leave campaign have some big shots still in their cannons - we don't know who they are yet, but Trump, or Sanders, or a Modi might come to the UK. My personal favourites would be New Zealand's Helen Clark, or Australia's Tony ( no migrants in boats crisis here mate ) Abbott. |
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Theresa May's speech today didn't give much confidence to the remain vote
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The remain camp have one big card to play Bongo. The stupidity of the people and nobody ever got poor underestimating the intelligence of the masses. They can be cowed by project fear of that I have no doubt.
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Somehow Eeter I think that is all that can save Dave now.
what a stinker he has played here. |
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I wonder if all this is one great charade aka? It doesn't matter how Dave or anybody else plays it. About 30% of the electorate are vehemently opposed to out membership of the EU. A similar number are probably voting in irrespective. Out of the rest some will vote and some won't. I suspect most of those who do vote will be swayed by the establishment who are largely behind remain. Whether we like it or not a United States Of Europe has been pencilled in for decades.
Osama Bin Laden could be resurrected and slide down Big Ben using his foreskin as a parachute acting as the catalyst for a huge mainland bombing campaign and I suspect it would move the vote no more than a couple of percent. The British people have been defeated by apathy. |
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The spikes were down to market manipulation. Look at the volumes causing the spikes.
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out will romp it
if ur on remain u have done ur doe the polls got the GE wrong coz they were unable to get hold of older and tory voters in other words they are not polling staunch outers who will definitely vote polling idealistic 25 year olds who wont vote and school teachers aint representative |
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Correction: Australia's former PM Tony Abbott has said he thinks the UK should remain. Hope nobody has lost money on him flying here to support the Leave campaign
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Good on you bongo, for pointing out and correcting your mistake.
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Cheers Des:
Coming soon - Brexit: The Movie . https://vimeo.com/154065484 The remain campaign can't compete with this. |
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Now 1.45-1.46
Anyone laying this should hang in there, perhaps even lay some more. The biggest weapons of the Remain campaign have been played - first Obama, and today the threat of World War 3. Only the climate change card, genetically modified crops ( boo - cheaper food must be stopped ! ) and the threat of a rat-borne plague are left in their arsenal. The leavers have let a new weapon out of their munitions factory recently - which is people saying they don't care if they are a bit worse off, so long as they are free. Versions 2 and 3 of this argument are still to come. |
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 i'm looking forward to it, Bongo. It's a bit boring seeing the price stuck in a rut. I wish some of the Brexit fans would put some money down; it will take at least 1.55 for me to go in again with the balance of my stake. |
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I am saving my best arguments for a Brexit until a week before the vote when it will go viral. The prices will change then
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15 Jun 01
| Topic/replies: 7,377 | Blogger: sageform's blog I am saving my best arguments for a Brexit until a week before the vote when it will go viral. The prices will change thenExcitedGrin It's not your best arguments i'm waiting for. It's your money |
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I live in big city and ask regularly ask people their views on remaining in the EU or leaving.
Well it is hard to find anyone who wants us to stay in the EU.It seems most people wish to vote and want out! looking at the betting I am sure the odds will be very close come June 23rd. |
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That's the same as I'm finding, pmbets...
I've yet to find a forum online for people who are voting to remain, but the web is awash with forums (fora?) for those who will be voting to leave. Something is unbalanced when polls and odds predict remain. |
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The odds don't lie. Either the brexit fans don't really believe what they are saying, or most people on the forum don't bet. Either way, if someone was offering me 3.00 - 3.2 for something that I regarded as more of an evens shot, I would be snapping their hands off and taking as much as I could get. The fact is that brexit supporters are not backing up their words with money. that is why the remain price is still disappointingly low.
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Plenty will disagree but I believe stalling house prices are a huge danger to remain. Please fix this, Osborne/Carney.
http://static.halifax.co.uk/assets/pdf/mortgages/pdf/April-2016-Halifax-House-Price-index.pdf |
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Des Pond 10 May 16 19:49
The odds don't lie. Either the brexit fans don't really believe what they are saying, or most people on the forum don't bet. The fact is that brexit supporters are not backing up their words with money. Leave campaign raises more than Remain in last 3 months The Leave camp is winning the battle for donations against the Remain side in the EU referendum war, new Electoral Commission figures show. Overall, anti-EU campaign groups raked in £8,180,425 in reportable donations between February 1 and April 21, topping the £7,458,712 given to the groups seeking to stay in the union during the same period. The In Campaign, also known as Britain Stronger In Europe, took the biggest single chunk of money with £6,883,684. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/11/boris-johnon-and-gordon-brown-join-eu-battleground-as-former-pm/ |
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the only reason for the odds being as they are is there is an assumption that the people will be cowed into voting the way the establishment wants them to vote as happened in quebec and scotland
assumption is the mother of all fook ups people have had decades of this corrupt self serving sh1t tip and nothing is going to stop the majority telling them exactly where to shove it we are leaving the building  if u are on remain u have done ur doe OUT OUT FOOKIN OUT |
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if u are on remain u have done ur doe
Give me some decent odds and I'll do some more, I'll give you 5 grand at 2.8, if you have the guts to take it. |
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The odds are not set by assumptions, they are set according to how much money is being bet on the event. As it is there are very few brexit fans putting down their money. that is why the remain price is so low.
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People are scared of change. They will not vote for change unless someone they trust can tell them what it will mean and that yes this is what will happen and this is what we intend to do with the future.
For the out vote to win it needed to have someone who is in power now to lead it and to say exactly what he wanted to do with the new and increased power that he and the British people would have. It would amount to a manifesto and would have needed a charismatic leader to take people with him ....not simply say it is your vote and your decision. |
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The odds are not set by assumptions,
LOL i think u will find they are they are set according to how much money is being bet on the event no they flucuate according to this, they are set originally by assumptions I'll give you 5 grand at 2.8, if you have the guts to take it. put up the REMAIN vote to be 40% or under @say 40/1 and i will take a bit of that |