Politics
By-election in Oldham West and Royton
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UKIP now into 3.75. We're approaching Heywood & Middleton territory now.
Lab on the ground have taken to shouting 'racist' so they must be getting worse returns than even that article speculates on. |
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Lab now pushing 1.4. Where's the top of this market?
I've now got a fully green book without taking out half my stake. Starting to think the unthinkable and Lab could lose this by-election. |
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There seems to be an abnormal amount of market movement in the last couple of hours. I wonder if someone has knowledge of private polling (perhaps conducted over the weekend)?
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Haven't heard anything that something is about to drop and the poll I mentioned earlier seems to have been a figment of someone's imagination unless it was an internal poll. If someone has access to a poll I'd expect a bigger swing if they know what they are doing.
Not sure about Lab but UKIP/Con/LD would bet accordingly on internal polling. It would be mad if Lab personnel didn't, but you never know. Instead of polling it could be just a volunteer or party activist on the ground who can see which way things are moving and fancies a bit of cash. |
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A lot will depend on turnout as the "hard core" Labour types will still vote for them. Corbyn had a 66% support from Labour members according to a poll this morning. If enough uncommitted voters can be tempted out, it could be close.
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Weather may well be set to depress the turnout. We are on target for the coldest by-election ever.
The likes of anxious aren't going to get out of bed to vote for Labour if the weather is bad. I do worry that the postal vote operation may have already built up a sizable lead for Labour. |
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billy i am informing you that i live in Manchester which is about 8 miles from Oldham so therefore lucy powell is our constituency Labour mp Manchester central from my wonderful hometown which is a tory free zone,as regarding getting out of bed that does depend on who is in the bed and other such things certainly not the weather
 ,as regards the by election the only way the little englanders can win is if the Labour vote collapses, i doubt this will happen enough for them to win however should they win it will only be a hollow short lived victory |
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More astounding insight there, anxious.
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Viva Jeremiah
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More money coming for UKIP. Betty 365 latest to chop them to 5/2.
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How many votes each can tghe postal voters get?
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I suspect Labour have a huge majority amongst the dead.
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Dead cant vote CJ. If you are alleging electoral malpractice you should report your suspicions and present your evidence to the police.
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Ok report it to the electoral commission. Let us know how you get on. Any chance of sharing your evidence here ?
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Thanks for your help CJ - most enlightening. Fundamentally you are prepared to make baseless allegations of fraud.
The reason there is zero chance of you sharing any evidence is that you haven't got any. |
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Do you want to read my post again and then have another go?
I'll stick with my reply 11.25 thanks. Kind of you to to give me another go tho. |
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Fair enough. I'll stick to my position of knowledge on this subject.
I'll let you continue to shout and scream from the position of obvious ignorance that you've shown above. |
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What shouting and screaming ? I'm trying to have a reasoned debate - you seem to be getting upset and emotional
as your arguments collapse. |
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You really put the Pomp in pompous CJ - get over yourself mate. Thanks for the link - but I've already read it.
It doesnt support your baseless allegations I'm afraid. |
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Sorry, it must have been another Captain Wurzel who said this
"Fundamentally you are prepared to make baseless allegations of fraud." and this The reason there is zero chance of you sharing any evidence is that you haven't got any. Do you really think this constitutes 'shouting and screaming' ? Really ? You must have led a shelered life. |
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Foot stamping now ! Hilarious nonsense from old CJ
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Sorry i'm just a pleb couldnt possibly have read a fifty page paper - you've sussed me out.
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Strong movement tonight, I don't know why.
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Announcement tonight that Corbyn isn't going to turn up there to campaign, normally a party leader doing a u-turn on a by-election means it's lost, but Corbyn would probably be a net vote loser.
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UKIP now under 3's.
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Labour are going to lose this seat - its a price worth paying if it helps get Corbyn out. I dont dislike him as a bloke
but he is a protest politician not a party leader. |
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Bad weather could mean many Labour voters won't bother.
More active and engaged Ukippers likely to make the effort. The feeling is that the support in Oldham was for Meacher personally rather than Labour per se. If UKIP could cut Labour's majority to say 3k, that would be quite a result. A UKIP win and Corbyn could be out by Christmas. |
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bad weather will not hit the Labour vote, the seat formely oldham west was held by micheal meacher since 1970, injera most of the seats in oldham are labour and always have been together with most of the big northern cities the tories are finished, the people despise them.
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the little englanders if they do scrape a win will not hold the seat for very long
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hard-left nutjobs still dont understand why ukip are nicking their votes
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