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CJ70 calls the South West a Liberal heartland,it may have been in the past but they now have no seats.
The South West is now exclusively Tory,Ben Bradshaw in Exeter the exception. Labour is the party of inner city and immigrants,its why they love immigration,its also the party of the religion of peace. |
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They might not win any seats back in a long while, but the south west will still be where the Liberal heartland is. I'm not sure Farron is the right person to win back seats as he seems to be chasing around after Corbyn's tail. You also have the problem that UKIP are pretty strong in that area and Carswell-style liberalism may appeal more than Farron's Liberals.
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the usual tory garbage dominates on here, mind you it is exclusive right wing forum now.
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Labour need large businesses and Unions. We have neither in the SW apart from Bristol. When 2000 lose jobs in steel production, it is headlines. When 10,000 lose jobs in agriculture, nobody in London or the media knows or cares.
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UKIP look set to field John Bickley as their candidate for this, he came close in the Heywood byelection in 2014, 8/1 looks okay pricewise although labour win still the most likely outcome
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Labour candidate is Jim Mcmahon. Not a nutter as some might put it.
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The problem is Muslims will block vote,the indigenous people don't do that.
The Labour candidate need neither canvass or pander to this group,he can concentrate on the people Labour betrayed. |
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erm wilde west have you ever been to oldham ?
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I have often been puzzled how a Labour government always fails to manage the Royal Mail when their local parties ALWAYS seem to achieve massive postal vote results ?
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The dead don't send and receive letters, but vote religiously.
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Who are still convinced Labour will win this by a mile?
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UKIP should stress the fact that they alone of the politicians called the migrant crisis right.
Accept the fact the Muslims will block vote so abandon them,go after the working class vote. Nigel Farage may be a toff but he is the only politician speaking for the British working class. Corbyn appeals to trendy lefties that hate their country,that's not how the working class feel. |
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wild west your so wide of the mark once again , in the general election of 2015 micheal meacher who was left wing increased his majority by 6 thousand, so i can assure you there are no trendy lefties in oldham because i only live 8 mile away, perhaps if you have visited oldham you might be better placed to comment.
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as for the empty vessel farage he knows nothing about working class people
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Labour's share of the vote went up from 2010 to 2015 by 9.3% from 45.5% to 54.8%. Effectively, this was due to the LibDem vote collapsing (as it did in similar seats virtually everywhere) from 19.1 to 3.7%. The Conservatives made no effort here in a seat they couldn't win and their vote share fell from 23.7% to 19%.
UKIP'S vote share went up from 3.2% in 2010 to 20.6% in 2015. UKIP could not win this seat at the 2010 election, their long term plan is to erode Labour majorities in northern seats such as this. They made a good start here in 2015. If you were a Conservative voter in this seat, there can be no doubt that you may take the opportunity to send out a strong immigration message to David Cameron's EU and immigration plans by voting UKIP. UKIP have a strong candidate and there is no incumbent factor which Meacher carried. |
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A gorilla would get a heap of votes in that constituency as a labour candidate.
Muslims block voting. Trendy lefties,Hope Not Hate both despise the British working class,especially despise them when they don't toe the party line. Their hatred for Farage is based on the fact he gets the ordinary Brit,he is on their side. The ordinary Brit should remember it was Labour supporters in Calais trying to get those migrants into Kent. |
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more drivel from wild west and his fortune telling
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anxious,
How many votes/percentage will Labour win this seat by in your opinion? |
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because the tory vote will collapse probably to ukip it should be closer , but the Labour candidate is a moderate and a local guy so i think they will win say by 5 to 7 thousand
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it will not just be about immigration it will be about tax credits cuts, the nhs and the tory disiterest in working class areas
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You wouldn't know what working class was if it hit you in the unmentionables. You can take class out of that sentence and it still rings true.
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billy you good for nothing what do you know , SFA
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keep patrolling the forum billy for your brownie points
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Labour price has moved out 10 pips since Friday so far. Heard a rumour that there is fieldwork due to be done on a constituency poll at the weekend. If that's the case it could be key.
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I wonder if UKIPs money problems will lead to them not throwing large amounts of money at this if polling suggests they are significantly behind, alternatively they might just go for it any case in the hope that another mp will go for the expenses that lead to the disagreement between Nigel and Douglas.
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Muslims are bad news, if a party is sympathetic towards them and wants lots more of them coming into the country, like the Labour Party, they will never get my vote. If there was a socialist party that adopted a hardline stand against Muslim and Eastern European immigrants then would vote for them but Corbyn seems to want to embrace these types who could end up destroying our country.
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CJ I had this email Sunday
We set off for Oldham at 7.00am on Saturday morning and arrived at the Royton Oldham UKIP office around 8.50, where we met John Bickley , seems a good chap , much taller than I imagined he would be. The day went well, we basically took the role of leaflet delivering , we were given maps and the five of us must have delivered around 2000 leaflets. When you leaflet it's difficult to get an idea of how people intend to vote, however occasionally someone would be in their driveway or front of their house and I had a quick chat , many people do seem un-happy with Jeremy Corbyn so I hope this goes in our favour. We had a good time and a few laughs along the way, we might do another one closer to the date . |
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Aye, this might not be the most fertile area for UKIP, but any increase on the current vote is good news and in a by-election which is likely to hold the media for X days it's a no-brainer for UKIP to attempt it. Whatever cash they can spare should probably be thrown at this in a responsible way.
Whether that happens or not is another question. Corbyn's outbursts today that suicide bombers should be arrested instead of neutralised doesn't help the Labour cause in this seat. Even the moderate Muslims will be a bit queasy on that one. |
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I am very confident that this result will be close and a recount wouldn't surprise me in the least. I have betted accordingly.
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When you posted your original comment Meadow there was plenty of 8/1 on the high street now 7/2 this morning. Well done.
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Corbyn has been forced to change his stance yet again on Shoot to kill policy. How can anyone vote for a party that has a leader who is so out of step with the rest of hids MP's? I know that a big number would vote Labour even if there wasn't a candidate standing in that area but even so...
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Quite a number of political commentators have added in that Labour are struggling in this by-election. This comes on the back of Corbyn's Labour losing a WC council seat in Kent last night and dropping to third.
I suspect a lot of it to be expectation management, but then when you have to start up the good ship expectation management things aren't running as they should be. |
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Labour have also been complaining that it was tasteless for us to canvass the day after the Paris attacks, and the fact the leaflets mention immigration and the dangers of the Syrian migration. The canvassing had been planned at least 3 weeks before, and the printing not long after.
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DON'T MENTION THE M WORD
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I don't doubt they'd be complaining. Labour moved the writ as quick as possible to give UKIP no time to canvass the area.
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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/12009844/Labour-support-at-ballot-box-could-be-halved-at-Oldham-by-election-polling-suggests.html
Labour are becoming shakier by the minute. |
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I hope Labour lose this by election. I want Corbyn out.
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