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The tories are in a mess and UKIP may well sneak up and steal their thunder. If the electorate as java alludes to are ready to embrace more right of centre policies then they may cast their vote with the party who has been saying that all along rather than going for a party who just follow public opinion.
The worrying thing for labour must be that people are disillusioned with the coalition parties but havent switched votes to them. This is the second by-election where UKIP have been the big winners. One nation labour obviously doesn't include eastleigh. |
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"How so?Labour slightly increased their percentage from the GE,and the seat is way down on their target seats"
Because of the swing from Lib/Lab to Tory/UKIP. Forget about individual parties and look at supposed ideology. |
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If the Tories can't come to an agreement with UKIP before the next GE (and that maybe difficult with Dave as leader) the Tories cant win imo, and will certainly lose seats which will certainly concentrate the minds of Tory MPs in marginal seats.
Interesting times, with ironically Labour(who are frankly, offering nothing in terms of any serious alternative at the moment)the likely beneficiary at the GE of increased support for UKIP. |
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Swing to Tory? Labour polled 4000 votes as they did in the GE.Tories down 14% bit less than the Lib Dem.This result was a DISASTER for the Tories as D Davies said yesterday lunchtime,"if we come third it will be a disaster".Did anybody think Labour could be third?Of course not.
BTW,exit poll of UKIP voters 8 out of ten said they would vote differently at a GE.Labour still expect to collect 4-5000 votes. |
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Don't see how the tories can get a majority at the next election with or without an agreement UKIP. There only hope is the alternative is ed and ed. A lib dem labour coalition is the most likely outcome.
UKIP have a chance to breakthrough as a forth party. They now have policies on a range of issues not just europe. If they are serious about kicking on i cant see why they would do a deal with the tories. They are taking votes of all the parties not just the conservatives. |
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mick last time there was by election in eastleigh labour had no leader and came second. With ed this time they came forth.
It was a shocker for the tories but a bad night for labour to. The fact that 28% of the electorate switched alliance but none to labour is a problem for them if it happens on a wider scale. |
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Labour did not expect to do well in Eastleigh.The Tories did not expect to finish behind UKIP.A bad night for Labour is getting beat by Respect,not finishing fourth in Eastleigh with the same votes as they got in the GE.Tories need to win in Eastleigh in a GE to gain an overall majority,Labour do not.It was a far worse result for the Tories than it was for Labour is the point I was trying to make,not the other way around.
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If the electorate as java alludes to are ready to embrace more right of centre policies
I am not certain a swing Right is what the Tories need. A bit of decisiveness instead of U turns or constant kicking the problems down the road might help. An understanding and a modicum of empathy with the electotae might help. Despite what Gideon, Dave etc. think the Tories are not all about high earning bankers and people gutted about paying 50% tax. The majority are pensioners with moderate savings, people on slightly above average incomes, and savers. All have been screwed to help the tories bale out their City backers. Until they acknowledge that they are doomed to opposition. People KNOW We are not all in this together. They know the National Debt is spiralling out of control. They know Dave's EC stance was just a hollow attempt to avoid grasping the nettle. Norman Tebbitt or somebody of that ilk is needed. |
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the Tories are not all about high earning bankers and people gutted about paying 50% tax.....All have been screwed to help the tories bale out their City backers.
not a single penny has been paid by Osborne or Cameron to bankers, the bailouts were all before 2010. of course Northern Rock should not have received a penny, of course forcing a good bank to take over a bad bank and dumping it on the taxpayer was a bad move, but it is over, is not important in the current mess, and all predates 2010. Cameron is no Conservative giant for sure, but your analysis is not sound. they u turn, they dither, due to their insecurity, innate liberalism and fear of being tarred with the "nasty toff" jibe, as if it matters. they do not do these things to benefit "bankers" whoever they are. |
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the ukip wonkers are mre in tune with the people than anyone else and ukip are a farce
for me that says it all ha ha |
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cmon UKIP - stick it up em!
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Hopelessly out of touch with the electorate.
Gay marriage isn't a priority outside of the vacuum that they live in. Building on Green Belt antagonises Tories. Removing the Age Allowance antagonises pensioners with modest savings. Increasing University Fees antagonises aspirational Middle Income Tories. Couple it with a Tax reduction for High earners and you get an Eastleigh. The Tory strength was in the local party support, the YCs etc. Dave and Gideon have lost that. Norman Tebbitt sums it up, "Tory grassroots has shrivelled in the climate of contempt in which they are regarded by the Tory leadership." |
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"Swing to Tory? Labour polled 4000 votes as they did in the GE.Tories down 14% bit less than the Lib Dem"
Did you even read my post? Or do you just not understand that UKIP is a right wing party? I'm as happy as anyone else to see the wet Cameron get socked by UKIP. |
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"BTW,exit poll of UKIP voters 8 out of ten said they would vote differently at a GE"
I suppose you think all these UKIP voters will vote for Ed Miliband's absurd One Nation nonsense instead? |
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"All have been screwed to help the tories bale out their City backers."
The fact you are blaming the Tories for the bank bailouts is absurd frankly. |
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Labour will win eastleigh when hell freezes over so their performance,particularly in a by-election,is irrelevant. Ukip were always likely to do well but before the campaign started I would have been surprised if the Tories couldn't beat the Lib Dems.
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The fact you are blaming the Tories for the bank bailouts is absurd frankly.
no it had nothing to do with the tories did it. |
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Umm - they weren't in power for that decade. HTH.
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that was well spotted.
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java
please read my thread not RRs edit. As far I am aware none of the baled out banks back the Tory Party. Plenty of Hedge Funds do, and quoted companies. Of course, the baling out took place under New Labour, the subsequent QE , Operation Merlin etc. that have deflated saver's returns (the bit RR omitted) have been coalition productions. I believe that this plus the proposed abolition of the Age Allowance has impacted the Tories' core support' pensioners with often modest nest eggs; that was my key point. Just to clarify, I have always stated that I blame the Blair/Brown regime's incompetence equally with the bank's incompetence. I have always stated that the failure to instigate a proper investigation is mainly/entirely to do with political expediency. |
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Java
Yes I read your thread.You said it was a worse result for Labour than for the Tories.Your on your own.BTW,I did not say it was a good result for Labour but it was in a seat where they did not even win in their landslide year.Who did you think that a predominantly white middle class protest vote be cast for Labour?Just except it,it was a disaster for the blue rinsers,you included. |
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Umm - no. I said it was a bad night for the Left (which includes Libdems) and a decent night for the Right (which includes UKIP).
But feel free to make up that I was just talking about Tories v Labour. I am quite happy Cameron got a bloody nose because he is hardly a Tory, but you seem intent on just making up what you want me to have posted. |
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While Eastleigh was bad for Cameron, it was also a disaster for the Left.
Bad worse than disaster?Play on words.Apart from Labour who else in Easleigh was representing a mainstream leftist think party? I am making nothing up. Cameron is the leader of the Conservatives,I am sure he sees himself as a Tory,but hey some moron on a betting site says he is hardly!Get over it,your beloved Tory party got a pasting,and cannot win a majority if replicated in a GE. |
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No overall majority at the next GE is approx 13/8 on here,fill your boots.Like finding it on the floor,a bigger certainty than taxes.Coalition governments are here to stay.This one may not be popular,that doesn't mean to say that a popular Coalition cannot be found.
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Master F,
i did not edit, i quoted, quite extensively. you always mention bankers, and you said bail out the bankers. the continuation of the interest rate suppression for sure has continued, but the beneficiaries there are the crappens. it has decapitalised the economy, against what makes a bank valuable. if you dont want to be accused of saying the Tories bailed out their banker friends, dont say it. you have given better lists since of Conservative crimes and loss of focus of their boasts, going on about bankers is all a bit 2008, and irrelevant. there is much that is holding UK down, much to cringe at with Cameron but bailing out banks is not one of them. |
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Who did you think that a predominantly white middle class protest vote be cast for Labour?
remarkable from MichaelPole. i mean, we all know in our hearts that few white people that have 2 beans to rub together votes labour, we all see them winning Leicester and Burnley, and never the affluent, decent, white areas, but it is unusual for a Labour voter to admit this. |
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its like those criticising Republican from winning 70% support from the highly educated white male.
and those say |
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but the beneficiaries there are the crappens.
There's a loud and clear message for you there hillbilly. Always get your money where the action is before it happens. No charge for the top class advice sucker. Have that one on me. |
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ing Democrats winning 92% support from poorly educated blacks means it is the democrats that are "in touch".
in touch with what one asks? the same thing gets charged against "out of touch" conservatives, as if you need to watch Jeremy Kyle, drink cheap cider or where a hijab to be "in touch". |
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stop butting into my stream of consciousness Crappmeister.
but worth it to note you at least admit to being saved from the market ripping your cack and t!tties off, bleeding to death in the Wolverhampton gutter by the interest rate manipulation. |
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Yes, the harder you work the luckier you get.
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affluent, decent, white areas
Explain?90% are white British in UK,do you think white working class areas are not full of decent people is that what you are suggesting?And who are you to be judge?It is obvious to me,if not you, that white middle class areas,predominately populated by white collar,house owning people do not normally vote Labour. |
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BTW,does an area populated by white affluent white collar,house owning people make them decent?
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mickprick seems angry I wonder what's rattled his cage
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And who are you to be judge?It is obvious to me,if not you, that white middle class areas,predominately populated by white collar,house owning people do not normally vote Labour.
we are in agreement. not many of those in Leicester, Burnley or Toxteth agreed. BTW,does an area populated by white affluent white collar,house owning people make them decent? in the main, yes. obviously there is an odd t!t in all groups, but I tend to respect and like such people. and as you point out, they dont tend to vote Labour. and dont live in Leicester, Burnley or Toxteth. not sure who else in England has Labour MPs. not any areas I would purchase property in. we are in agreement, but as bb1 says, you seem angry. why? i know who i am and am proud of it. i hope those from a different group are proud of who they are. everybody should be. but i know the group i am in, white, tertiary educated, and financially independent of government check vote Conservative and Republican. |
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Yes, the harder you work the luckier you get.
bollockios. tell that to the chinese worker picking cockles, or the african mom walking 50 miles for water. these words are spoken by young women with record deals pretending it was hard work, not their baps and a perverted manager that got them where they are. true greats didnt have to work, they just do it. does messi work harder than the Crystal Palace back 4? they are also spoken by grey haired ****s from Wolverhampton investing with borrowed income into the worlds biggest property bubble who admit to having got bailed out, to avoid them facing the truth, just as little Miss 28GG with the butt to match has to tell herself. because the truth brings shame. |
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There are people in Leicester,Burnley and Toxteith vote Tory. Are they the only decent ones living there?Again,who made you judge and jury of who is decent or not?Angry?Not me,and its a silly suggestion as you are not here sitting beside me.I might as well ask if you and Blackburn1 are idiots.Anyway by now,curry time.
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Toxteth? Well phuck me what an example to use
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There are people in Leicester,Burnley and Toxteith vote Tory. Are they the only decent ones living there?
no, but bet they are amongst the only white, homeowning, independent of government check inhabitants. there are decent people all over the world, 95% of the world are just getting on. but we are talking groups, i know what group i am in, and we are decent people and vote Conservative and Republican. Anyway by now,curry time. ooh, look the guy shovels slop in a tray down and thinks he is running with the "in crowd". white anglo saxon food is bland in origin, because we lived on good land, in temperate climate. hot areas be it mexico or india or thailand live in sweltering 100 degree hell holes, lived off rat and needed immense spice to hide what was shocking meat. i like my burger, my steak, my taco and my crispy duck. i was dragged to a curry house in Skelmersdale at 19 as a missionary, and i am convinced seeing the food, the behaviour and the wallpaper started my decline into depravity. |
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the good land and climate of course means you can raise decent veg and livestock, and what do you need to add to that?
those living on guinea pig and lacking root vegetables need to be im |