PNicholls

It does irk me somewhat when people look at my strike rate of 12 per cent this in January so far, and just assume that my yard is under a cloud.

I must be missing something.

Yes, that strike rate is considerably lower than in previous Januarys, where I have consistently won with more than one in five of my runners, despite it traditionally being a quiet spell for us because of the flu jabs we give to the horses during the month.

But I like to think I am more open than most when it comes to revealing information about the stable - be it injuries, breathing operations, and maybe even earplugs in the future! - to Betfair customers, the BHA, the racing channels and the written press.

And I can tell you here and now that, as I write this, I have no concerns about the overall health of my horses.

Yes, it is disappointing when horses run below par and don't win, and there have perhaps been a few too many this month. And a 12 per cent strike rate is far less than I normally would expect, I readily admit that.

But lazy generalisations and comments tend to build up a momentum - like a good bit of gossip about the girl next door, no-one wants to spoil it with the sober reality that she has never even been kissed - if not checked.

Checked in both senses of the word.

So, I asked Timeform to go through all of my horses to have run in January and see if they performed above or below their Timeform master rating (horses that either failed to finish or were making their hurdling/chase debuts and had no comparable form were ignored - and , for the record, they included impressive winners such Minella Stars and The Minack, so I am not hiding behind statistics here).

Fourteen improved on their Timeform master ratings, and 17 did not. Indeed, nine of the 17 ran at least a stone below form, with the likes of King's Legacy (50lb) Free World (33lb), Kauto Star (31lb) and My Will (30lb) all running races some way detached from their peak.

As far as I am aware, sick horses do not tend to improve and among those not to have performed anywhere near their mark all have individual, not collective, reasons why they ran poorly. Obviously, Kauto Star is the most high profile, as he had a slight bleed and infection after his King George run.

And there were various and obvious reasons why such Toubab (heavy ground), The Nightingale (finished distressed/fibrillating heart), My Will (old age and now retired), King's Legacy (failed to stay), Free World (never going after an early blunder, though Tchico Polos ran a 7lb career best in the same race), and Sam Winner (I have bruises all over my body as I have been beating myself up ever since running him at Chepstow) all ran way below their best.

And I can reveal here that Escort'men probably needs a sinus operation after running badly at Kempton.

I could go on, and add that Mr Hudson actually had a bad foot infection after improving to finish third at Exeter, and Pepe Simo some 22lb in defeat at Kempton, according to Timeform. And Organisateur and The Reformer improved 6lb and 3lb respectively on the same card when placed. The latter ran well and now goes for the EBF final.

And since Timeform did those stats, we have obviously had the likes of Cedre Bleu and Al Ferof come out and win well.

So the point I am trying to make is that people should take the time to look beyond the recent statistics. My seasonal strike rate currently stands at 25 per cent and I'll be bloody delighted if it is still 25 per cent come April.

Who knows, we may have another disappointing weekend.

Horses are not machines, and they will disappoint for specific, and sometimes unknown, reasons.

The moment I suspect there is any general and widespread problem at all in my yard, you and the public will be the first to know.

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I have just had to renew my jumps licence, so I thought I would take the opportunity to apply for a dual purpose licence for the first time.

I have only ever had a jumps-only licence, but this now gives me the opportunity to run some horses on the Flat - perhaps the likes of the Royal Ascot Racing Club's Advisor in the spring, and some horses in staying Flat races.

I also had another first this week as I went up to London in person for an appeal about the running and riding of Robin Will at Cheltenham on December 10, which saw Nick Scholfield originally get 10 days for failing to obtain the best possible placing on the horse.

We were there from 10:00 to 15:30 - solicitor Rory MacNiece also represented Nick - and I must admit I was very impressed with the professional and thorough manner of proceedings.

Unlike the Cheltenham stewards, the panel had the chance to see Robin Will's previous outings, and Nick's 10 day ban was quashed.

Robin Will is a very delicate horse, and it was good to see that they acknowledged such.

So we not only came away pleased, but not surprised, for Nick, but also impressed by the whole process.

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Some of you would have seen my interview with Nick Luck on RUK at Newbury last Wednesday, when I like to think that I got my point across to those who think Kauto Star should be retired after his run in the King George.

Because I honestly think that I have read and heard some of the biggest rubbish this past week from people who don't know the horse.

I know by writing this article I may come across to some as defensive, when I have nothing at all to defend, but I think it has to be said.

No-one knows Kauto better than me and my team here at Ditcheat, and we all thought he had never been better going into the race.

So, yes, it was very disappointing that he didn't travel with any of his normal verve, and jump with his usual zest, at Kempton. But he didn't run badly and there have been a couple of possible reasons come to light for his below par performance, namely his small bleed and his mild infection.

He has been on antibiotics this week, and has had physiotherapy and massages, too.

So, we now have a challenge with the horse.

We love the horse and know what is right for him, and all this talk of retirement just puts unwanted pressure on us. We don't need it.

But this is a racehorse who loves his routine; you should see him at home. In fact, with our regular video updates on the site of his fast work and schooling, you now do.

And as long as he continues to love and thrive in his training and run well, then he will continue to race. If he doesn't, then we will talk retirement.

And as for people saying that he should sidestep Cheltenham and wait for next season, now I really have heard it all; after all, he has only won just the two Gold Cups there.

Yes, he may not be the horse he was two or three years ago, but is Denman?

I understand that Kauto, like Denman, is now a public horse - it was superb to hear him cheered in, then cheered out of the Kempton paddock - and the public have formed a special bond with him. They feel like they own a part of the horse, along with Clive, and that is great.

But they also want to see him race, and people can't have it both ways.

They can't bemoan the fact that the top horses are not seen out often enough, then ask for the likes of Kauto to be retired in the next breath after one disappointing run, where he would have been second in a King George but for his bad mistake.

Denman has been written off twice before finishing second in the last two Gold Cups, but it was he who got the biggest cheer when he came in after finishing third in the Hennessy in November.

And remember Kauto has bounced back from poor runs in the past before to win big races, too.

The Aon, where he only beat L'Ami a neck, The Old Roan and The Betfair Chase, where he would have been all out to beat Snoopy Loopy had he not unseated at the last. Three runs when he was some way below his best.

But what did he do on his next start after those runs? He won the Gold Cup, Betfair Chase and King George.

Yes, he has more miles on the clock at 11 now, and may not be as good as he was at his brilliant best. But Monet's Garden was 12 when he won the Betfair Ascot Chase last year, having been tailed off at the course on his previous start, and See More Business ran in the Gold Cup for me as a 13yo.

I always try and do what is best for my horses, for racing and the racing public, and always will do. But it is almost as if some people want Kauto to fail at Cheltenham, so they can say "I told you so".

It really isn't appreciated, however well intentioned some of the comments may have been.

Trust me, we will do what is best for the horse, as we have always done.

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I tweeted yesterday that Kauto Star "did have a small bleed after the race and will go straight for the Gold Cup now" - but I will expand on that.

Firstly, I would like to thank all the people who came along to Kempton to cheer on Kauto Star on Saturday. And all those who expressed their good wishes before and after the race.

It is an honour to be associated with the horse.

But I can tell you now that reports of his demise are somewhat exaggerated, and there is no talk of retirement here.

I have just spoken to Clive. We agreed that Saturday's race now gives us a bit of challenge with the horse - and hopefully we, and most importantly, the horse will rise to it.

He will be prepared for a tilt at a third Gold Cup victory in March - different ground, different track, different day - and we would like to aim him for a third victory at Down Royal in the autumn, too.

As long as he is enjoying his racing and running well, then he will continue - he is 11, not 13.

Saturday was undoubtedly a big disappointment. He was never travelling or jumping with any real fluency, but it wasn't as if he ran a poor race. Without his blunder at the second last, he probably would have been a fair second to a very good horse.

But that clearly wasn't his best form.

I am not making excuses but I can reveal that when he got back home and stuck his head in the water bucket, he bled from both nostrils. He has never done it before, and will probably never do it again.

It wasn't a big bleed but it indicates that he probably bled during the race (possibly after his mistake at the second last, which meant he had to dig deep to get home), which would not have aided his cause.

But the horse was fine going into the race. You may have read that he wasn't buzzing in his box. But he is like a seasoned human athlete these days. Experience of big races breeds a certain calmness, and I think he was A1 going into the race, so there are no excuses on that score.

So it is up to me and my team here at Ditcheat to get him right for Cheltenham; and we will relish the challenge.

We fancied The Nightingale to run well but he may have found 3m too far.

I can reveal exclusively here that he finished distressed and we have discovered that he has a fibrillating heart, similar to the problem that Denman suffered from.

More about him in Friday's column.

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We have just made our entries for some of the big race early closers at the Cheltenham Festival, and we have left seven in the Gold Cup, five in the Ryanair and four in the Champion Chase.

Obviously, Kauto Star heads our Gold Cup entries and he was mad fresh and well when schooling for the final time ahead of Saturday's King George this morning. Denman has just started back cantering after his break, and the other two that are being targeted at the race at the moment are Pride Of Dulcote and What A Friend.

Pride Of Dulcote goes to the Irish Hennessy on February 6 after his comeback defeat of Punchestowns at Newbury, while What A Friend goes to the Aon before the Festival.

Neptune Collonges, Noland and The Nightingale make up the septet. The former has questions to answer after his run at Cheltenham last month and may be more of a Grand National horse. But we will see where we stand after he runs in the Argento.

Noland delighted me with his second in a Jumpers Bumper but looks more of a Ryanair contender (see below) at this stage. As for The Nightingale he could also be more of a Ryanair horse too, but I would look pretty bloody stupid if he wasn't in the Gold Cup if he went and won on Saturday.

We have five in the Ryanair, and the quintet is headed by last year's runner-up Poquelin. And after beating Great Endeavour off a mark of 163 at Cheltenham last month he is now favourite to go one better in March. As outlined above, The Nightingale and Noland get an entry, and Noland will go for the 2m5f handicap on Cheltenham Trials Day next. He looks fairly treated off 157.

Master Minded clearly is being aimed at the Champion Chase (see below) but Breedsbreeze ran a great race on his reappearance when second to Tartak in the rearranged Peterborough at Newbury. He goes for a handicap on Ascot on January 22.

Master Minded heads our Champion Chase entries and he goes for the Victor Chandler next, and he will be joined there by Tchico Polos after his fine second at Sandown on Saturday.

The progressive Woolcombe Folly goes for the Game Spirit next and Tataniano, perhaps the forgotten horse in the 2m division, goes either for the Game Spirit as well, or a Doncaster handicap in a fortnight.

All in all, we have a pretty strong looking hand in those races.

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Flu, of both the human and swine variety, is in the news at the moment.

But it is horses' flu jabs that are very much order of the day here at Ditcheat at the moment.

It is compulsory for every horse to have a flu jab every year. But we do so every six months, in July and January - and that is why, traditionally, January is one of our quietest months, as every one of the entire string will be vaccinated.

And once horses have their flu jabs, they have a fortnight on the easy list. About 80 per cent of the string has now been done.

Of course, that is not a reason why we had one of our, thankfully, rare disappointments last weekend. But there were some reasons why a couple of mine ran below expectations.

Granted, we didn't have our A Team out as we had done on recent weekends.

But in some ways it was a relief that some had valid excuses after running below par, and none more so than Mr Hudson. Although he ran a decent race in third, I thought he would win at Exeter.

After scratching my head for a couple of days, we found that he had a bad infection in his hoof and we have been treating it ever since.

King's Legacy was another that I thought would go close to winning but he found 3m on the ground too far, and he will step down in trip.

But, as I half suspected, Taranis needs further than 2m5f these days - he was running an ok race in sixth when falling - and he will now head for the Argento.

Advisor was undoubtedly very disappointing but better ground and further may see him in a better light.

Celestial Halo was another horse I thought had winning claims last weekend. He ran a brave race in third but I am coming back round to the conclusion that he is not a 2m4f horse after all. I think he may want a good test stamina over 2m, so he will go for the Kingwell Hurdle next.

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The point to point season is about to start in earnest - there was a big meeting at Larkhill this weekend - and it is an increasingly important area for bringing along raw and talented youngsters. Horses and jockeys!

When time allows, I love nothing more than going point to pointing, and I went to Weybridge to see my nephew Harry Derham ride earlier in the season.

This weekend a whole host of my lads - the likes of Jack Barber, Ryan Mahon, Harry, Dan Collins, David Prichard - will probably be in action. And my PA Sarah West will be in action again soon on her horse Ask Again.

I share a number of young jumping prospects in England and Ireland, and they are housed with Richard Barber and Chloe Roddick in England and Liam Burke in Ireland.

Points are responsible for giving our horses invaluable experience before coming to us. From See More Indians and See More to Business to Aiteen Thirtythree, the benefit is there for all to see; remarkably, they all won the same maiden at Larkhill.

And it is an increasingly competitive sphere and big business, as well as being a great grounding for the horses. And, at last, the English point to pointers are getting as much credit as the Irish ones.

If you like your point to pointing, here are five names to look out for in the coming weeks: Buck's Bond, Mendip Express, Dualla Lord, Glass And A Half and Festive Present.

The former is related to Big Buck's and has already won a point in the spring. I hope he could be useful, though I have to declare an interest as he is part owned by myself and Anthony Bromley. And he is for sale at the right price!

While on the subject, I want to get Just Amazing and Ornais qualified for the Cheltenham Foxhunters, so I better get cracking on that project.

It would be great if they could make it to Cheltenham in March.

Highs

• Taranis coming back from long absence with a win in the Argento at Cheltenham in January, his first start since the 2007 King George
• Four winners at Newbury on February 13, including Master Minded, Tricky Trickster and Al Ferof
• Big Buck's and Sanctuaire lifting the spirits at an otherwise forgettable Cheltenham Festival
• What A Friend winning at Aintree
• Becoming the Champion trainer for the fifth consecutive season, something I never dreamed I would do
• Four victories at Ascot and Haydock on Betfair Chase day
• Getting Master Minded "back" to silence the doubters - including myself!
• A 1-2 in the Haldon Gold Cup with Tchico Polos and Twist Magic
• Meanus Dandy winning the Badger Ales at Wincanton for Mark and Tessa Woodhouse, who sponsored the race
• Four winners again at Cheltenham on December 11, with Master Minded, Woolcombe Folly, Sam Winner and Poquelin all obliging
• Master Minded again - this time winning me a sixth consecutive Tingle Creek
• Four winners at Newbury on Wednesday
• AP McCoy winning the Sports Personality Of The Year


Lows

• Twist Magic, and other losses such as Pendower. Whenever you lose a horse at home or on the track it is always terrible, but Twist Magic's death was a grim day, one of my worst on the racetrack
• Denman - his 1-6 defeat of Newbury, and watching him run at Punchestown, though it was some performance to finish so close giving his jumping.
• Twist Magic refusing to race the day before Denman's defeat
• Kauto Star falling in the Gold Cup
• Ruby being injured for so much of 2010
• Another year without a Grand National winner - I regret running Tricky Trickster in the Gold Cup, as he should have gone straight to Aintree
• Losing the 2010 King George meeting to the weather


Betfair customers can read Paul’s exclusive views on his weekend runners every Friday by visiting http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/paul-nicholls/

Sam Winner could make a quick reappearance at Chepstow on December 27.

He has come out of the Cheltenham race so well that I haven't ruled out going there with him, but it's only a possibility at this stage.

As everyone knows, I like to be as honest and open with the public as possible, and that is why I immediately mentioned after he won at the weekend that he is not a certainty to go for the Triumph (for which he is the 7.2 favourite on Betfair).

I simply won't risk him on fast ground, and he is a tremendous chasing prospect.

As for some of my other juveniles at this stage, Empire Levant ran a pleasing enough hurdling debut at Newbury, where a mistake at the third last cost him any winning chance he may have had. He is a big, strong backward sort, and he will improve with time.

There has been a lot of talk about our smart Flat recruit Brampour, and he has become a bit of a gossip horse. I see that he is third favourite for the Triumph already and he runs at Kempton over Christmas, but let him show us what he is capable of on the track before we start getting excited.

We have two juveniles owned by the Timeform Betfair Racing Club, both smart French purchases.

Flat recruit Plenty Pocket has been schooling a lot recently and has been doing well, but Indian Daudaie has already done it over hurdles, finishing second in a Grade 1 hurdle at Auteuil last time.

He could start off in the Grade 2 Finesse Hurdle on Cheltenham Trials day. But, as with all the French horses, I pretty much reserve judgement on them all until I see them perform on the racetrack.

Betfair customers can read Paul’s exclusive views on his weekend runners every Friday by visiting http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/paul-nicholls/

It wasn't so long ago that some sections of the racing media were questioning whether Henrietta Knight was short-changing the public, and doing racing a disservice, by wrapping Best Mate in cotton wool and "only" running him three times in his campaign.

But hopefully the same people will not fall into the same trap this season, despite the fact that many of the Gold Cup big guns will now go straight to Cheltenham after firing just one shot in November.

Many will now say that the Gold Cup picture will be complete after the King George, and that the 2011 trials are pretty much an irrelevance. But don't be so sure.

Yes, Denman is going straight to Cheltenham, as is Hennessy winner Diamond Harry, and possibly Imperial Commander. And if all goes to plan on Boxing Day, then Kauto Star's first run in 2011 will be at the Festival.

Admittedly, they occupy the top four spots in the betting, but don't assume that nothing else will emerge to lay down a serious claim for Gold Cup honours in 2011.

You only have to look at the highly progressive Midnight Chase this season to see how racing and experience improves horses. He is now bang in the Gold Cup picture just two months and three runs since starting off the season running off a mark of 137.

And that is exactly my point. You map out a campaign to suit your horse; it entirely depends on the animal in question.

Horses decide campaigns, not their trainers.

Denman will go straight to the Festival because we know he goes best when very fresh. I ballsed up by running him in the Aon last season and I am not going to make the same mistake after his great comeback run in the Hennessy.

And Nick Williams clearly thinks the same with Diamond Harry, while Imperial Commander is widely thought to excel off a break, too.

I don't think it is suddenly a new phenomenon at all. But with the gallops and facilities that most trainers have these days there is no guessing game about whether a horse is fit or not. Trainers know - or at least they should do.

And what have the likes of Denman and Kauto Star have to prove before the Festival, and the likes of Menorah for that fact? Nothing.

For example, I won the race with Taranis last season but I am not convinced that the Argento is a good Gold Cup trial, as it is often run in very soft ground. That wouldn't be ideal for my big guns, would it?

But if horses need races during the season, then we run them. Master Minded has already won twice this season, will go for the Victor Chandler, the Champion Chase and maybe even the 2m4f race at Aintree.

And the Festival factor is also lost on many.

The fact that horses have a light campaign pre-Cheltenham means they are even more likely to take in the likes of Aintree and Punchestown. So far from to the detriment of the sport, it helps to ensure that the best horse are seen at the best Festivals.

And that isn't a negative in my eyes, because you can't have it both ways.

Novices are a different matter altogether though, as they often need runs and experience before they get to the Festival.

But as for the old hands, it isn't necessary.

Trump cards should be played at the optimum time, when the pots and prizes are at their most valuable and important. In racing, these opportunities are often few and far between.

Betfair customers can read Paul’s exclusive views on his weekend runners every Friday by visiting http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/paul-nicholls/