PNicholls

It wasn't so long ago that some sections of the racing media were questioning whether Henrietta Knight was short-changing the public, and doing racing a disservice, by wrapping Best Mate in cotton wool and "only" running him three times in his campaign.

But hopefully the same people will not fall into the same trap this season, despite the fact that many of the Gold Cup big guns will now go straight to Cheltenham after firing just one shot in November.

Many will now say that the Gold Cup picture will be complete after the King George, and that the 2011 trials are pretty much an irrelevance. But don't be so sure.

Yes, Denman is going straight to Cheltenham, as is Hennessy winner Diamond Harry, and possibly Imperial Commander. And if all goes to plan on Boxing Day, then Kauto Star's first run in 2011 will be at the Festival.

Admittedly, they occupy the top four spots in the betting, but don't assume that nothing else will emerge to lay down a serious claim for Gold Cup honours in 2011.

You only have to look at the highly progressive Midnight Chase this season to see how racing and experience improves horses. He is now bang in the Gold Cup picture just two months and three runs since starting off the season running off a mark of 137.

And that is exactly my point. You map out a campaign to suit your horse; it entirely depends on the animal in question.

Horses decide campaigns, not their trainers.

Denman will go straight to the Festival because we know he goes best when very fresh. I ballsed up by running him in the Aon last season and I am not going to make the same mistake after his great comeback run in the Hennessy.

And Nick Williams clearly thinks the same with Diamond Harry, while Imperial Commander is widely thought to excel off a break, too.

I don't think it is suddenly a new phenomenon at all. But with the gallops and facilities that most trainers have these days there is no guessing game about whether a horse is fit or not. Trainers know - or at least they should do.

And what have the likes of Denman and Kauto Star have to prove before the Festival, and the likes of Menorah for that fact? Nothing.

For example, I won the race with Taranis last season but I am not convinced that the Argento is a good Gold Cup trial, as it is often run in very soft ground. That wouldn't be ideal for my big guns, would it?

But if horses need races during the season, then we run them. Master Minded has already won twice this season, will go for the Victor Chandler, the Champion Chase and maybe even the 2m4f race at Aintree.

And the Festival factor is also lost on many.

The fact that horses have a light campaign pre-Cheltenham means they are even more likely to take in the likes of Aintree and Punchestown. So far from to the detriment of the sport, it helps to ensure that the best horse are seen at the best Festivals.

And that isn't a negative in my eyes, because you can't have it both ways.

Novices are a different matter altogether though, as they often need runs and experience before they get to the Festival.

But as for the old hands, it isn't necessary.

Trump cards should be played at the optimum time, when the pots and prizes are at their most valuable and important. In racing, these opportunities are often few and far between.

Betfair customers can read Paul’s exclusive views on his weekend runners every Friday by visiting http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/paul-nicholls/