Pinza

Still attempting to reduce the risk.
Todays afternoon selections based on 10 year stats
A ratings (speed) Double Top & Spots shown where appropriate

Major Crispies 2.10Yarm  A M&E
First Class 3.10 Yarm    A
Megaleka 3.40 Yarm
Barkston Ash 3.50 Hayd
Odeliz 4.10 Yarm         A
Head Space 4.20 Hayd     A DT (saver on Rich Again)

After a set back with Thouwra on Sunday (and more importantly -mentioning that it was my banker of the day to Missus when clear about 100 or so yards from post) have had to incorporate a fail safe
to reduce the risk further.

Thouwra was well clear on ratings (+10 Mirror & +15 Express) as well as Top Speed, Double Top plus excellent trainer record in Maidens at Salisbury.

Checking the form there was a niggle that it had an whiff that it might be a professional loser after three 2nd's in four races.
Sundays race was the first time it had actually hit the front towards the finish so it's definitely a squiggle horse.

Such is the case that the previous runs total has to be taken into account in maiden races.

TODAY
12 of the 21 flat races fall in the Double Spot qualifier.
8 of the 12  have the A rating from Speed Plus + Split Second figures
Only 3 also have the Double Top

2.30 Morning Post (2yo mdn) + clear on ratings
4.00 Quick Wit (Conditions) + clear on ratings
4.45 Decent Fella (Hcp) + fairly clear on ratings (7 & 5)

Another angle of the collated data relates to horses that have little to recommend them in the criteria used BUT start favourite for race.
5.15 Aglaophonos
I noted this one a few days ago when declared at Beverley (25th) but non runner on day. Also withdrawn at Leicester on 27th when it suited trainer stats.

A day to forget as far as betting.
All three selections failed to win at prices 2/9f, 1/5 & 11/10
Just shows that it's still hard when one tries to reduce the risks of selections.

Aglaophonos did no better either with 3rd of 6 at 7/4f
A day for Layers with only three winning favs at the two day meetings

Currently still covering Mirror/Express Top spots, Double Top, Speed Plus & Split Second.

About 2 weeks ago Chris Forwood (Mirror) mentioned a system of backing a horse when it's 6 points clear of next horse in Mirror spotform rating figures. He also added only backing it when Newsboy & Bouverie select the horse. I ignore the latter.

When all things tie up (Double Spots match, Double Top selection, Top Speed figure) things don't work out much better.

The 2yo maiden races are often subject to a FTO winner or a change of favourite from forecast prices.

The addition of clear difference in ratings is a help though, in reducing the risk factor. 

Today the following are clear on spot figure ratings and are Double Spot with Double Top and Top speed.

2.10 Muss: VIVA VERGLASS (2yo Mdn!!)
2.20 Yarm: ARBEEL  (Maiden)
2.40 Muss: SCARGILL (seller)
3.00 Donc: MALACHIM MIST (Novice) ***
6.30 Nmkt: LAMAR  (2yo Mdn!!)
8.05 Nmkt: HALLELUJAH (Conditions)

RESULTS.
4 winners with Arbeel & Hallelujah failing to win.
The banker Malachim Mist made hard work of it to win.

Not much doing yesterday and No Double Tops.

Looking at 2.00 Linga where Hannon stable have good strike rate with 2yo maidens in todays grade and time of year.
It's a system criteria selection and covers the FTO and filly v colts angles.
Bonnie Wee Lassie

Double Tops Today
2.00 Nomathemba unplcd (Last)
3.35 Purcell  WON4/5f
4.45 Triple Dream  unplaced
5.20 Maughami Unplcd (Last)

UPDATE
Bonnie Wee Lassie made running and faded poorly final furlong.
Drifted pretty badly near off which was a bad sign.
A backers nightmare of a race with two earlier non runners declared and the well backed Red Oasis withdrawn at start, making a hefty adjustment to price taken. That left little hope of laying off in running.
No excuses though, the filly looks a short runner and not one to follow. It may pick up a seller or claimer though.
The Owners have had a horse with Hannon each of last 3 years and won a race with two of the three - but never FTO.

Double Tops were pretty poor with two finishing last. (Results input)

It's a long time since Luca Cumani had an odds on loser in 3yo Mdns
with a colt/gelding coming back off a Long Break (100+ days)
2.10 Nottinham Elhaame 2nd 11/10

Update
The selection never started odds on so was not a justified bet with above criteria.
It's a difficult call when watching price range between 10/11 and 11/10 as it could go either way.

Too much to do today to add but see the first DT just went in
DT Runners
Archelao WON 7/2
Elhaame  2nd 11/10
Beckernet unpl
Spirit Quartz WON 6/5
Red Style unpl
Snow Bay 2nd 8/1
If I were a Boy WON 6/4
Dorfman unpl

It was a difficult day with 4 meetings and 30 races to take into consideration.
I had set two bets on Elhaame at in running prices of 2.25 and 2.56
Those were taken before the off!

It was a poor start to the day but a decent lay on The Noble Ord and fiver on Royal Opera plus a few small lays gave a profit of £43.

The things to take out of the day;
Mark Johnston does not win many Listed Stakes races over 14f distance
Nor does he win with Long Break horses in those races April-May months
Brian Ellison has a pretty good record in 14f races at Catterick

Double Top today
2.00 Kitty Brown
2.30 Queen Cassiopeia
2.40 Elidor


PONTEFRACT B Hcp 10f April (4.15pm)
The 10 year trends only give four  runnings of this race but my records indicate the race began in 2007 and therefore six previous races (7 winners) as included Dead Heat winners Deaville Flyer & Mirrored last year.
Richard Fahey has won it on four occasions.
Tim Easterby two (both inDead heat last year)
Brian Ellison once

Strangely enough my three possibles, to provide todays winner, from the previous race stats are all trained by above.
Spanish Duke. 
Silvery Moon
Lady Loch.

Richard Fahey is the only trainer to win with a 4yo and also trained the only Mare winner.
He caught me out in 2011 when won race with his second string and today also runs Las Verglass Star.
That one finished last in the race last year and has been hurdling.

I'm taking Spanish Duke on basis that it has ticked most boxes, and runs first race for Ellison after moving from John Dunlop.
Ellison did similar with previous winner Ladies Best 2009 having taken over the horse from Luca Cumani.

RESULTS
Lady Loch won Pontefract race
Ended up backing all three for a small profit.
It's often the way with stats - more than one indicated in any given race.

Double Top
All 3 horses drew a blank today. (Not unusual in small fields)

Very few of AW posts to come as the Flat really kicks off next week (apart from Tuesday 16th)
Seem to be just collating data lately.
It's getting near time to put away the AW files and concentrate on Flat. The boxed Flat files are going into the filing cabinet draws today.

Surprise surprise today - I'm not going for Varian runner but backing Haggas in 2.40 Wolver race. (Fehaydi)

Looking at trainer files the Kremlin stable have not fared that well at Wolverhampton in 3yo Mdn races at this time of year.
In fact it has been very rare for a horse coming back after winter break to run at Wolver in spring period.
Also the winners have been usually well tested with 2 or more previous runs, unlike One Pekan with just a single run.


On the other hand Haggas seems to specialise with Long Break runners in 3yo maiden races at this time of year, especially in recent years

All AW tracks list. (1994-2012)
month    INFO    horse name    POS
1    LB    Playing Tricks    4
1    LB    Balmaha            6
3    LB     Lyphard's Fable    6
3    LB    Hand Woven    2
2    LB    Don Sebastian    1
8    LB    All In Leather    1
1    LB    Companion    3
4    LB    Handful (IRE)    1
4    LB    Trojan (IRE)    2
6    LB    DIG DEEP    1
3    LB    KINGS APOSTLE    1
3    LB    TIFERNATI    1
10    LB     Empowered (IRE)    1
11    LB    CAPE QUARTER    1
5    LB    Kahruman    1
5    LB    Fast Or Free    1

DOUBLE TOP runners today
Memory Styx
Poetic  Verse
Kodafine

RESULTS;
Fehaydi won 11/4

DT
Memory Styx  2nd 13/8f
Poetic  Verse won 7/2
Kodafine won 4/5

Double Top Qualifiers today
Chosen One
Mishhar
Shafaani
Go Glamorous
Elijah Pepper

Not keen on Shafaani but a dodgy lay
Best to back Mishhar (9/1 into 5/2) for a PLACE.

RESULTS;
Chosen One    2    22.00
Mishhar            4    5.00
Shafaani    1    0.57
Go Glamorous    2    0.67
Elijah Pepper  NR

Put a place bet on Mishhar and later watched video of it's last race.
It weakened so badly in that race I withdrew my bet.
Don't always have time to check these things but glad I did.

Aintree Fillies Bumper winners grades track runs (wins in bold)

A F        CHELT (12F) NEWB (13F)
F F        TAUNT WINC
E E F F        SOUTH CATT LINGA (13F) CARL(14F)
F        WARW
G2 E        NAVAN CORK
E        LUDLOW
A E F         SAND HUNT WARW
A E E F        SAND FLAS CHEP WORC

Last run Sandown Listed filles race (winner3 in bold)
HELTORNIC     3
FUNNY TIMES    0
THEATRE GIRL    2
Ravello Bay    4
ARGENTO LUNA    5
Kerada             0
Tempest River    1
Eleven Fifty Nine    1
Call Me A Star    2

Look for an F (or E) grade winner that has ran in (but not won)pattern


Todays Double Top
Scargill
La Sylphe
El Manati
Azelle
West End Lad
Actonetaketwo
Prime Exhibit
Lovesome
Birdy Boy


RESULTS;
An Irish one/two in Bumper

Double Top

Scargill    0    2.75
La Sylphe    2    4.50
El Manati    0    0.80
Azelle    WD   
West End Lad    WON    4.50
Actonetaketwo    3    3.50
Prime Exhibit    3    2.00
Lovesome    2    3.50
Birdy Boy    WON    0.57

The only surprise was 10yo West End Lad winning.
The few DT winners of age group 9yo plus have won sellers or claimers
and this was a first for Hcp win.

La Sylphe was a WLTO and none of the DT 3yo seller stake winners so far won last time out.
That was endorsed by race stats - none of the last 10 winners of the race won on latest start.

Going away slightly from Double Top, yesterdays 15 races (Flat)
had eleven races where a horse was top rated by both Split Second & Speed Plus but produced only 3 winners. Apart from two DT winners other was Scribe 7/4jt fav
Makes on wonder about the value of speed?

Double Top
Lady Launchalot (25%)
Jan De Heem (12%)
Story Writer (80%)??
Almaty Express (5%)

Looking at past data the % win chance is shown.
Story Writer looked the best, but most winners in this sphere have been 3yo's and Story Writer is 4yo
Also this is the second time Story Writer has been DT and that score in this race type is 0-7 (with 6 finishing 2nd)
Trainer William Knight was on "Purple" list (best DT win ratios), but is now only 50% and if this doesn't win today will be off that list.

Quatuor 3.30 Linga was 12th on the Trainers 2013 Top 5 competition with 18 votes.
That's not good enough to back it, as normally the top two 2yo's can be backed on their first and subsequent run until a winner.
Not saying it will win but wouldn't lay it either on below..
This is trainers record at Linga with 2yo maiden when priced under 4/1
Parisian Gift (IRE)    Won    3.50
Yellow Printer (GB)    Won    1.50
Soccer (USA)            Won    3.33
Brambleberry (GB)    Won    3.50
Quaestor (IRE)       2    2.50
Janeiro (IRE)       8    1.38
Transvaal Sky (GB)    Won    2.75
Adele Blanc Sec (FR)    Won    2.00
Ice Pie         Won    2.50


Roll on April 15th when there are 3 Flat racing meetings, and better still on 18th when Nmkt opens for business

RESULTS;
Quator 2nd and ran a fair race but clearly not the best 2yo in Dascombe's yard.

DT
Lady Launchalot    1    0.67
Jan De Heem    0   
Story Writer    2    0.91
Almaty Express    2    6.00