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FLAT RACING

GET RID OF THE RISK

02 Jul 13 18:50
After a set back with Thouwra on Sunday (and more importantly -mentioning that it was my banker of the day to Missus when clear about 100 or so yards from post) have had to incorporate a fail safe
to reduce the risk further.

Thouwra was well clear on ratings (+10 Mirror & +15 Express) as well as Top Speed, Double Top plus excellent trainer record in Maidens at Salisbury.

Checking the form there was a niggle that it had an whiff that it might be a professional loser after three 2nd's in four races.
Sundays race was the first time it had actually hit the front towards the finish so it's definitely a squiggle horse.

Such is the case that the previous runs total has to be taken into account in maiden races.

TODAY
12 of the 21 flat races fall in the Double Spot qualifier.
8 of the 12  have the A rating from Speed Plus + Split Second figures
Only 3 also have the Double Top

2.30 Morning Post (2yo mdn) + clear on ratings
4.00 Quick Wit (Conditions) + clear on ratings
4.45 Decent Fella (Hcp) + fairly clear on ratings (7 & 5)

Another angle of the collated data relates to horses that have little to recommend them in the criteria used BUT start favourite for race.
5.15 Aglaophonos
I noted this one a few days ago when declared at Beverley (25th) but non runner on day. Also withdrawn at Leicester on 27th when it suited trainer stats.

A day to forget as far as betting.
All three selections failed to win at prices 2/9f, 1/5 & 11/10
Just shows that it's still hard when one tries to reduce the risks of selections.

Aglaophonos did no better either with 3rd of 6 at 7/4f
A day for Layers with only three winning favs at the two day meetings


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