Ozone Layer

The going yesterday at Leicester, based on times, was heavy and betting on the flat at the moment is proving very challenging. Fortunately I have kept stakes small so not too much damage done and hopefully a profitable month can still be achieved - soem good bets today:-

Newcastle 5.00 Trade Commissioner 3pts win

This won't be much of a price but the Bell horse helps make the market. A real eyecatcher last time and the step up in trip should suit.

Newcastle 3.20 Boucher Garcon 5pts win - max bet

Another shortie but unpenalised for last win, drawn well and a sprinter in form proven on the ground. Should bolt out and make all. First max bet of the month.

Lingfield 5.45 Prohibition/Bubbly Braveheart 1pt win both.

Despita fourteen runners I can only see these two winning so will back both. An exacta is also worth considering.

Washed out at Folkestone yesterday before the selections ran so we will never know. Managed to bet against the 1/10 shot at Wolverhampton in the evening as 16/1 the winner seemed too big and as the result showed it is horse racing and you just never know.

As far as account bets are concerned I remain minus 5pts for April


3.30 Leicester Amazing Star 0.5 pts win and Ventura Sands 0.5 pts win

Very competitive handicap here and the ground may have gone against Intercept who ran really well on debut. Global Village was an eyecatcher last time and may be overbet today as a consequence. At the prices I am having two small bets on Amazing Star who has won on the soft and has fitness on its side. Ventura Sands has drifted to 16/1 which is surprising as the yard is in form and I can't resist it at that price.

7.25 Wolverhampton Head Space 2pts win

Ran really well after a long absence last time and is weighted to go close even without allowing for any improvement which it surely should have. Island Legend will go off fast and should set the race up. Baby Strange is the danger but it hasn't won for a long time.

There are 48 tipsters in the Racing Post naps competition and only three managed to pick a winner yesterday which just demonstrates how difficult it is this time of year.

A poor day here with Copperwood proving mulish and running no sort of race. Qeethara drifted to an incredible 8/1 on the exchanges but went very close and I managed to lay the Cole gamble to retrieve my stake (another failed plunge by the yard). Steelcut just couldn't go the pace so a loss of seven points on the day - ouch !

Running loss April 5pts.

Folkestone 3.20 One More Roman 3pts win

In truth a dire race and effectively a match between the front two. Dark Ages has shown ability over five furlongs but over 7 furlongs today will have it's stamina put to the test by it's market rival. I make One More Roman a 6/4 shot so 15/8 will do for me.

Folkestone 3.55 Journalistic 2pts win

A form line through Jack of Diamonds makes Curzon Line the same horse as Philipstown so I am surprised to see one trade at 9/4 and the other at 10/1. I think Journalistic at 11/4 can beat them both dropped down to 7 furlongs after being touched off twice over a mile last year. I will probaly lay Curzon Street to provide my stake.

A frustrating day yesterday demonstrating the thin line between success and failure - three seconds, two at big prices.

Taikoo ran a blinder at 12/1 and was just beaten by the danger Boss's Destination. Flow Chart which was available at 16/1 finished to good effect but just can't seem to get his head in front. The big disappointment  was Out Of The Blocks and this was a bad misread by me and a poor bet at the price with too big a stake.

Overall at the sps I lost two more points - April running profit 2pts. On to today:-

Catterick 2.30 Copperwood 1pt ew

Since the move to Johnston's this horse has flourished and races off an 8lb lower mark then the all weather. He found Kempton a bit sharp last time nut was running on well at the finish and he shuld find the slower surface better here. The jockey takes another 5lb off and he looks sure to be placed.


Lingfield 3.50 Qeethaara  3pts win

Has run really well at Kempton recently yet has gone up very little in the handicap as a result. She has drifted this morning mainly as a result of Betvictor being against her I suspect as a result of the support for Zing Wing. Cole's stable have backed a few this year without success and the 3/1 now available for Qeethaara is good value.


Kempton 6.00 Steelcut  2 pts win

The drop in trip won't be a problem for this in form horse and Matthew Cosham gave him a great ride at the course last time. I expect him to travel well and pounce close home and is value against Howyadoingnotsobad
who may set the race up.

I gave back two points yesterday as Junket, the only selection on another trappy day's racing, ran below expectations. Profit for April now stands at 4 points.

4.35 Southwell Taikoo 1pt ew

The best race of the day at Southwell and Boss's Destination has every chance of confirming form with Captain Bellamy as it was his first race since September when he won last time. Further back in the race was Taikoo who was apprentice ridden and not given a hard time when beaten. Fron the same yard as Captain Bellamy, Taikoo was in fine form last year and beat Boss's Destination so he appears overpriced at 12/1 with a proper jockey on board today and is the value bet.

5.05 Southwell Flow Chart 0.5pts ew

Moderate horses in this but Flow Chart had been running well until last time when drawn badly. At 14/1 or thereabouts it is worth a small ew bet.

2.10 Yarmouth Out Of The Blocks 4pts win

Missed the break and bumped early on it's debut this one did well to finish third in a time quicker than the following seller which has since produced three winners. On breeding the other newcomers do not look precocious and evens is available at the time of writing. Should be a 1/2 shot so still value imo.

A little bit disappointed with the ride Paul Hannigan gave Captain Dimitrios yesterday but he did get him back up to share the spoils. The trade was never in doubt and although 9/2 was freely available I will settle at the sp of 3/1.

Running April profit 6 pts at sp.

Definitely a case of quantity rather than quality today and there could be ground concerns if the rain persists.

Yarmouth 5.20 Junket 2 pts win

This horse was fancied last time at a course that probably did not suit and it was doing all it's best work at the finish in a pretty hot race. It had been an eyecatcher on it's previous run and the return to turf over a longer trip on slower ground should be ideal. Glass Mountain has been on the drift and I suspect may not handle the ground as well as the selection. I will take the 7/2 on the exchanges but the bet will be settle at sp.

Warwick - nothing of interest

Redcar - quite like Dolphin Rock in the 3.45 but too competitive and the same for Caledonia Princess in the 4.55 so just the one bet today.

Probably a good decision yesterday to keep stakes to a minimum as the winners took a deal of finding as they always do at these early bank holiday fixtures. A fine effort by Kinloch Castle to finish third and beat all the fancied horses in the race. The sp was 9/1 so it means we lost half a point on the day but the price was much bigger at the time of posting (as usual !). Kickingthelily also ran well as suspected.

April running total plus 4.5 pts.

Musselburgh 2.20 Captain Dimitrios 1pt win

A little surprised to see this one turned out again after a good effort yesterday over seven furlongs. It was an amazing attempt as previous form gave no indication it could stay that distance.Incredibly all the opposition today are hold up horses and as he is drawn well there is every chance of an uncontested lead here. There are a few dangers of course but there should be the opportunity to trade out so the 9/2 currently available looks big with that in mind. For account purposes I will put up the bet as a one point win but personally will bet two points with lay of 2 points at 2/1 in running for a free bet (I hope !)

Let's hope he runs.

Nothing else on another difficult day but better tomorrow

Another nice winner with Estedaam seeing the trip out well on Thursday and the price holding up well at 3/1. A profit of 6 points on the day and the profit to date for April at sp of 5 points.

Today is a minefield for value punters on the flat with many quality animals returning after breaks but not much recent form to go on. As a result I am only playing to low stakes - apologies for this but I do not want to waste profits to date with so many imponderables

2.05 Kempton Right Stuff/Rasheed 0.5 pt win each

Right Stuff and Rasheed make most appeal in the Queens's Prize and I will risk a small bet on both. Right Win won well at the course two starts ago and sees the trip out well and Rasheed is also a course and distance winner with a big chance.

3.50 Musselboroug Kinloch Castle 0.5pt ew

This is a good race and the recent all weather winners of Switzerland, Bronze Angel and Shabora all look closely matched. The ground here will be softer then they have encountered before so it might be worth taking them on with Southwell winner Kinloch Castle. I wouldn't be surprised to see Kickingthelily run better than the price suggests either.

Good win from Six of Clubs yesterday which was available at 13/2 at the time of posting. However the profit and loss is to be based at sp of 100/30 so a loss of 1 pt on the day. April running total - 1pt.

Poor stuff today but two horses are of interest:-

4.40 Folkestone Estedaama 2pts win

Took a while to get going last time on return from a break but finished fast under hands and heels and the extra distance should help today.  Must surely beat Imtithal this time and Cotton Trader has had enough chances already.

5.10 Folkestone Flag of Glory

I like front runners over the round trip on fast ground and fancy this one to nick a lead turning in and hold them all off. I was hoping for 7/2 and see he is priced up early at 2/1 so there is no value at this price unfortunately. No bet.

Nothing tomorrow so back Saturday

This is the first of a series of daily blogs to record my selections and thoughts on the days racing.

The objective is to achieve a profit at starting price each month. Stakes will range from 1 to 5 points.

Here goes for today :-

2.30 Lingfield Hinton Admiral 2pts win

Although it has it all to do with Hazzard County at the ratings the small field and possible lack of a true gallop may help Hayley Turner nick this race on a horse that has had a good season and performs well at the course. Hazzard county has dogged it on more than one occasion in the past.

4.00 Lingfield Six of Clubs 1pt ew

Guaranteed to stay unlike some of the others and is slightly overpriced at 13/2 on the exchanges at present. Celtic Charlie is probably the danger now the hood has been removed but he may struggle to last home.

4.30 Lingfield Chjimes 1 pt win

The favourite looks better at six furlongs rather than five and Chjimes does particularly well here and again represents value at around 6/1. Wouldn't back ew as may get run out of it.

6.30 Wolverhampton The Blue Dog 1pt ew

Good effort last time to beat the hot pot at Kempton and the money for Maid of Meft makes the market. Wouldn't be surprised if it was a non runner being from this yard but if it goes looks knocking ew bet at 9/2 or thereabouts.


7.00 Apothecary - no bet but looks far too short at 7/4 andI wil lay at this price.