Ozone Layer

Profit for April at starting price - plus 24 points

Ed De Gas won very nicely yesterday to land a 2 point bet and he looks a horse of some potential. As I am settling all bets at starting price the 2/1 means that the accounts show a 1 point loss on the day. Cameron Highland like many others at Epsom did not handle the ground and is better than that but perhaps I overstaked in view of the conditions.

2.50 Wolverhampton Needwood Park 1pt win

This race looks wide open and I am prepared to risk a point on Needwood Park at around 10/1.


4.30 Wolverhampton Resplendent Alpha 2pts each way

Ran an eyecatching race at Pontefract last time coming from off the pace. A form line through Cabal makes it well in here and looks a strong bet to beat this modest bunch


5.00 Wolverhampton Russian Storm  3 pts win

A facile win at Lingfield last time and this horse looks well ahead of the handicapper and should win here. anything above 5/2 is a bonus.

Running profit for April plus 25 points at starting price.

I'm kicking myself yesterday for not putting anything on Rub Of The Relic which went off at 10/1 and had been much bigger throughout the day.

Ground worries persist but here goes for today:-


3.45 Catterick   Ed De Gas  2pts win

I am keen to be against Bordoni in this race and Ed De Gas runs as if a longer trip should suit. It travels on and off the bridle but finishes its races strongly. Naseem Alyasmeen could chase it home.


4.15 Catterick  Jack Dawkins 1pt win.

The performance at Southwell last time was sensational and I will take a chance that it can reproduce the form on the slow ground today.


3.20 Epsom   Cameron Highland  4pts win

If Neil Callan can get the lead here I expect him to make all as the colt dictated last time on softish ground and the further he went the better. The yard is in great form and make it my strongest bet of the week so far.

Running profit for April plus 28 points at starting price.

At least we don't have to worry about the ground conditions today back on the all weather.

2.50 Wolverhampton Spin Again 1pt win

Disappointed to see Spinning Ridge a non runner but I feel the front two in the market are vulnerable here and Spin Again won well before failing on the soft ground at Yarmouth. Well worth another chance here.

3.55 Wolverhampton Cloudy Start 1 pt win

Showed a nice turn of foot last time under this jockey and a similar display today should suffice.


7.40 Southwell Somerset Island 1 pt win

I expected this to be shorter than the current 11/4 and I think it should follow up it's recent win at the track. Rub of the Relic may be best of th rest.

Running profit for April plus 29 points at starting price.

At the risk of repeating myself I intend keeping stakes low with the ground as it is at present.


4.45 Pontefract Brockfield 1pt win

Mel Britain's horses are running quite well at the moment and he nearly had a big price winner with Steel Stockholder on Saturday. It will probably pay to be up with the pacemakers today and Brockfield led at this distance when reappearing here earlier this month. It has won over a longer trip which should help under today's conditions and the 12/1 currently available is a bit biggger than anticipated.

Just the one today

April running profit 33 points at starting price.

Beyond Desire did indeed prove value yesterday and although plenty of 9/2 was available all day I am settling the account at 3/1 so only a level day in the end. However the early lays of the three hotpots at Newbury all proved profitable and these have not been included in the account.

Be careful at the moment - it is foolhardy with the ground as it is to back these short priced ones at present and, in truth, it is best to keep stakes low whatever your fancy.

2.10 Thirsk Beautiful Day 2pts win

This horse travels really well and I prefer it at 7 furlongs even though it has won over a mile. It had a warm up at Southwell last month when beaten by a decent animal and is rated a stone lower on the turf. Worth an interest today at around 4/1

3.45 Newbury Mull of Killough 0.5pts win  and Nazreef 0.5pts win

I am going to have a token go at the Spring Cup but only tentatively ! Mull of Killough did well in the Lincoln finishing very strongly but the ground may have gone against him today. Nazreef will try to make all and perhaps this may suit but again I am worried about the ground.

8.00 Nottingham Miss Cato 1pts win

The yard is in great form and this filly relishes the ground and may not have stopped improving.


Back Monday - good luck

Running Profit for April at SP  33pts

Minstrels Gallery was outclassed yesterday but was sent off at a very short 20/1. Even though the favourite was a non runner 66/1 was available in the morning and it was defintely not value at the sp. I was right to take on Black Cadillac last night but did not pick the right one !

A feature of the turf racing this week has been the number of hyped horses that have started short priced favourites and got turned over. Many of them have not been quite spot on and they wouldn't want hard races on this type of ground so early in the season.

Again today Aljamaaheer, Popular and Wrotham Heath look very short to me and I will lay all three at the early prices and trade out if they drift.

Selections:-

1.35 Newbury Confessional 1pt win

Tim Easterby's horses have needed the outing so far and if Confessional is race fit now would have a decent chance here. Wouldn't risk ore than a point though.

6.30 Bath Beyond Desire 1pt win

Comes from a yard in form and has run well fresh and beaten Night Carnation. Looks the value - tight race.

8.00 Bath Kyllachy Storm 1pt ew

Will get a tow from Dancing Welcome (who looks overpriced 20 lbs lower the all weather) and this Bath specialist has dropped to a winning mark. Looks to have been prepared for this race and with four places look ew banker.

BOOM !! What a day that was - 62 points profit on the day.

Magical Macey at 20/1 (plenty of 30/1 available prior to the off) defied the draw as predicted and Model Pupil got back up at a juicy 6/1. Following the string of seconds this was a welcome change of luck.

Running profit for April at sp plus 35 points.

4.10 Newmarket Minstrels Gallery 0.5 pt ew

On ratings this has absolutely no chance but the perfomance on debut was very inpressive and the second won quite impressively next time up beating a well regarded horse from the Chapple-Hyam yard. Even if underated by ten pounds it still has an aweful lot to do but with the ground softening up there is achance it could run into a place at huge odds so it worth a very small interest.

6.05 Wolverhampton Strictly Pink 1pt win

Black Cadillac is a deserved favourite and is well drawn here but the forecasted price of 11/8 is much too short and I fancy Strictly Pink and Whiphound to go well at the prices. They ran in the same race at Warwick last time and the ground was against Strictly Pink who,if he can get prominent early, is too big at 10/1 or thereabouts.

Just these two for today

To say I need a winner is an understatement at present and today looks as difficult as ever.

3.20 Beverley Magical Macey 2pts win and Tagula Night 2pts win

Much is made of the draw at Beverley and rightly so but on soft ground horses can win from a high draw and often go off at bigger  prices than they should. In this race Tagula Night has fitness on it's side and will be finishing strongly as it has won over 6f and goes on the ground. Magical Macey is a faster animal but I am taking a chance on its fitness. Both are trading a big prices this morning and represent decent value.

5.20 Newmarket Model Pupil 4pts win

The step up in trip is sure to suit and the Hills yard has it's horses fit and ready at this time of year. There could be some decent horses in this but at 5/1 or thereabouts again the value is there

Apologies for late post today as short of time. Selections:-

2.40 Southwell Da'quonde   2pts win

3.10 Southwell Doctor Zhivago 5pts win

3.40 Southwell Ace of Spies 1pt win

A quick reflection on Saturday where Trade Commissioner was a non runner due to the ground conditions which again were heavy rather than soft and led to a number of withdrawals. Boucher Garcon can be counted as an unlucky loser racing away from the pack and only tying up close home having traded at 1/4. How Prohibition managed to lose out on a battle with Penbryn I will never know; that must have been my sixth or seventh second last week.

As far as today is concerned:-

2.15 Wolverhampton 2.45 Pittodrie Star  4pts win

Proven on the surface and fit, collateral form lines through Where's Susie give Pittodrie Star a favourites chance here and I expect Cotton King to be the main danger. In fact I thought of putting this one up as the ew selection but it probably prefers a two mile trip so I will go with Pittodrie Star.