Ozone Layer

TWO BIG HITS TODAY !!

The ground changes yesterday afternoon caused big problems and my selections quite simply did not handle the soft - Escape To Glory lost a shoe to add insult to injury. I like to post before mid day but by the start of the meeting it was a whole different ball game and if I could have cancelled the bets I would have done.

I nearly got the Qaraaba race right and got two messages pointing out that an exacta would have been a sensible approach - point taken. All in all a loss of 2 pts on the day so no great damage done.

4.20 Expense Claim 4 pts win

A bit obvious this one as unlike it's rivals it has form on good to soft. It is a  point and shoot job as it is the only pace in the race so it should just be dependent on Fortune getting the fractions right. Starboard may handle the ground being by Sadlers Wells on the dam's side and Gosden should know how good Expense Claim is as he trains Michelangelo who beat him last time. However it is a step up in trip and I am hoping he just gets tired. Not much of a price but 6/4 is availalble.


6.15 Newcastle Hakuna Matata 4 pts win

As yesterday I don't know how bad the ground will be tonight but this one has won on heavy so it should be ok. Ran a fine race last time coming from off the pace at a track which seemed to favour front runners. It is hard to know how many others will line up - I probably most fear Woteva if the going gets really bad. Despite the unknowns I am ok with around 3/1 or thereabouts.



The only one rejected today was 5.40 Knightly Escapade which I backed last time but the yard is out of form so wil pass over it today.


PLEASE NOTE THERE WILL BE NO BLOG TOMORROW - BACK MONDAY

Good Luck

Ozone

Account :-

RUNNING LOSS FOR JUNE 2.5 PTS - PROFIT FOR APRIL/MAY 43.5 PTS AT SP


For the benefit of any new viewers the sole purpose of this blog is to make money month after month by betting on flat racing. Profits are calculated at starting price so everyone can get on even though prices are usually available at much bigger odds at time of posting on these exchanges. Unfortunately we will go without winners at times so if you are following me please keep a bank available to ensure you can ride out those losses. Bets are between 1 and 5 points

Redair did the business for us yesterday at an sp of 3/1 but if you didn't get better than that I am very surprised. Steady Gaze was not put in the race at all and was any price you like prior to the off. It will probably be out again in the next two weeks - at Kempton - and is likely to be ridden a little more positively if you get my drift.

The account is now level for the month to date and I am confident of another winning month. It is all about riding out the poor times and that is why I always include the risk warning at the bottom of the page. Putting selections up every day is not something that sits comfortably especially when the racing is poor and nor is settling at sp !   

3.55 Newmarket -  Escape To Glory 1.5 pts win  - My Son Max 0.5 pt win

Won well in a fast time at Folkestone last time when stepped up to 7 furlongs after a series of unlucky attempts. The only one I see troubling him today is My Son Max who won well at Kempton on it's second run for the yard and is big at 12/1 so I will have a half point on this one as well.


8.50 Doncaster -  Dragonera 2pts ew

I am a huge fan of Qaraaba and she ran her heart out for us last time when beaten by Danadana who went on to win again this week. She goes up another four pounds and has a great chance today but betting is all about value and today she might just get beaten by Dragonera. This has won over the course and distance and probably didn't stay the mile and a half last time. A form line through Robin Hood's Bay gives her a few pounds to find with Qaraaba but on that occasion she was returning from a break on the all weather. With Qaraaba at 7/4 and Dragonera at 8/1 I was tempted to back both but will go for Dragonera each way.


8.30 Goodwood - Cochabamba - 0.5 pt win

Ran well for a long time when when allowed to bowl along in front at Ascot and now drops back to 6 furlongs. Worth a very small interest at 14/1 or thereabouts.


Back tomorrow - good luck

OZ


RUNNING LOSS FOR JUNE 0.5 PTS - PROFIT FOR APRIL/MAY 43.5 PTS AT SP


For the benefit of any new viewers the sole purpose of this blog is to make money month after month by betting on flat racing. Profits are calculated at starting price so everyone can get on even though prices are usually available at much bigger odds at time of posting on these exchanges. Unfortunately we will go without winners at times so if you are following me please keep a bank available to ensure you can ride out those losses. Bets are between 1 and 5 points

Was I the only one who thought Orsippus had won yesterday - gutted.  As far as Secret Queen was concerned it did not pay to come off the pace at Nottingham and I would have thought Mickael Barcelona would have realized this after his ride on Invisible Man. Perhaps the horse just couldn't keep up but it was never nearer than the finish and was perhaps a little unlucky.

A loss of 1.8 points for the day so let's call it minus 2 but as usual I assume you got better than 3/1 on Orsippus.

I am sticking at Wolverhampton today where at least we know the state of the ground.

3.10 Wolverhampton - Zain Princess 1pt win

I am prepared to forgive the last two runs as they were on heavy ground over trips too far. Previously the horse had shown good form over this course and distance. Tis Rock 'N' Roll looks strong but the horse it beat last time by 4 lengths was 43 lengths behind Zain Princess in a earlier race. The negative is that I do not like the jockey and hope he does not hold the horse up way out the back so just a one pointer and win only I think. 8/1 is the price now.


3.40 Wolverhampton  - Redair 2pts win

A few old favourites turn out here but I will stick with the new kid on the block and hope the three year old can beat it's elders. It has won the last three times here and there are big question marks over all the others for one reason or another. It is 3/1 on here at the moment so that will do.

4.40 Wolverhampton - Steady Gaze 0.5 pts ew

will probably need the race as it has its first run for 105 days but has won after a break at 33/1 in the past. Didn't handle the track at Southwell last time but before that was very impressive at Kempton.  We should get 20/1 plus on this one.

I won't mention the other ones considered today as they are all trading at short prices

Good luck all

OZ





RUNNING LOSS FOR JUNE 4.5 PTS - PROFIT FOR APRIL/MAY 43.5 PTS AT SP


For the benefit of any new viewers the sole purpose of this blog is to make money month after month by betting on flat racing. Profits are calculated at starting price so everyone can get on even though prices are usually available at much bigger odds at time of posting on these exchanges. Unfortunately we will go without winners at times so if you are following me please keep a bank available to ensure you can ride out those losses. Bets are between 1 and 5 points



 

One bet one win yesterday with Barwick winning nicely at Yarmouth at 7/4 which was again the shortest price that it had been all day. Due to this we are still showing a small deficit at sp (not at early prices)for the month to date but hopefully that will be rectified soon. Another rejected winner with Hab Reeh and Tabaret finished a very close second at 16/1. 

4.45 Nottingham - Secret Quest 1 pt win

Ran an absolute stormer on debut at the track and the same again may well be good enough to improve past the favourite Stellar Express today who appears to be a little inconsistent. There are others in the race with a chance such as Balady so only a one point win at around 3/1 for me. If it wins watch out for Cuff Link in the 8.40 at Ripon as this horse was second to Secret Quest but does face a stiffer task.

8.30 Kempton - Gloriam 0.5 pt win

At first glance this race looks all about Curzon Line, Main Line and Obliereight who all did well at the track last time out. If you dig a little deeper a case can be made for Gloriam who trounced Safari Sunseeker at Wolverhampton last year and that horse is a decent yardstick - winning again recently. The problem is that this is very competitive and it has not run for 207 days so may well need the race. Rather than ew just a small win bet just in case - price currently is 20/1 plus.

9.10 Ripon - Orsippus 1 pt ew

Most of these have run over hurdles this winter so they should all like the two mile trip. Orsippus and Sohvahtoa have the best flat form and Orsippus came out on top when they met at York last month. He does not win as much as he should but at the current price of 9/2 is worth an ew bet as I really cannot see him being out of the three.


Rejected ones today are Galicia and The Lock Master who are both too short.


Good luck all


RUNNING LOSS FOR JUNE 2.5 PTS - PROFIT FOR APRIL/MAY 43.5 PTS AT SP


For the benefit of any new viewers the sole purpose of this blog is to make money month after month by betting on flat racing. Profits are calculated at starting price so everyone can get on even though prices are usually available at much bigger odds at time of posting on these exchanges. Unfortunately we will go without winners at times so if you are following me please keep a bank available to ensure you can ride out those losses. Bets are between 1 and 5 points

Our Boy Jack got a bit outpaced over the shorter trip yesterday but was finishing to good effect and I was happy with the performance unlike Trending who had beaten it's rivals before but is obviously not one to trust. The two I rejected won of course Danadana at 5/4 and Oratory at 5/1. When your luck is out that's just the kind of thing that happens.

Unappealing stuff today so just one bet :-

4.30 Yarmouth - BARWICK 3 pts win

This one picks itself really winning strongly over course and distance on it's first run this year beating previous winners and then doing exceptionally well from off the pace in the bog at Sandown. The problem is the price but it is 5/2 and that is just about acceptable as long as it doesn't get shorter. I am staking three points rather than two as it is the only bet of the day and a win will retrieve the month's losses so far. 



My rejects are Silver Lace (5.35 Yarmouth) who runs is a handicap for the first time but I was very disappointed how it fold tamely when I backed it last time. One day Tabaret (3.45 Redcar) will come in at a big price but probably not today as this looks a bit stiff. I have backed Hab Reeh (5.20 Redcar) at Southwell the last two times but this is an amateur riders race so will decline today.

Back tomorrow



RUNNING LOSS FOR JUNE 8 PTS - PROFIT FOR APRIL/MAY 43.5 PTS AT SP


For the benefit of any new viewers the sole purpose of this blog is to make money month after month by betting on flat racing. Profits are calculated at starting price so everyone can get on even though prices are usually available at much bigger odds at time of posting on these exchanges. Unfortunately we will go without winners at times so if you are following me please keep a bank available to ensure you can ride out those losses. Bets are between 1 and 5 points

A welcome success for Powerful Presence on Saturday and hopefully those that backed him would have got better than the skimpy 15/8 sp. I will settled this at 2/1 if I may for account purposes as I normally round down and don't want to record profits in fractions lower than a half point so 2.5 points profit on the day. Main Sequence ran well to be second in the Derby.


2.30 Leicester -  Our Boy Jack 2pts win

Runners are dropping like flies around the country due to the rain presumably and there are a few non runners in this race already. I would normally be put off backing a horse that has gone up 10 lbs but the form is really strong with winners coming out of both previous races. The defeat by Galicean on return looks paticularly good and I think the drop back to 6 will be ok with the softer surface. You can get 10/3 on here at the moment which is good enough for me.

6.35 Chepstow - Trending 2 pts win

Landed a bit of a gamble when breaking it's duck here last time despite being slowly away. Course form is important at this track and looks to have only My Name Is Sam to worry about (should be superior on a line through First Rebellion). Anything above 5/4 is ok.


One or two other's were interesting such as Oratory and Danadana but I will leave it at just the two for today.

Good Luck - back tomorrow

OZ

RUNNING LOSS FOR JUNE 4 PTS - PROFIT FOR APRIL/MAY 43.5 PTS AT SP


For the benefit of any new viewers the sole purpose of this blog is to make money month after month by betting on flat racing. Profits are calculated at starting price so everyone can get on even though prices are usually available at much bigger odds at time of posting on these exchanges. Unfortunately we will go without winners at times so if you are following me please keep a bank available to ensure you can ride out those losses. Bets are between 1 and 5 points

Forgot to say yesterday no blog today.

Enjoy the jubilee - back tomorrow. 

I am somewhat surprised that I didn't receive any hatemail yesterday after a disasterous set of results which left us with a loss of 6.5 pts on the day. This was my worse day of the flat season so far and I apologise for such a poor effort. It can be put down to a combination of things but rather than a lengthy post mortem let's just move on to today !

A bit more conservative with the stakes today as I am still in a state of recovery :-


THE DERBY  Main Sequence 1 pt win - Mickdaam 0.5 pts win

A shade disappointing that the race have reduced to nine runners as I could envisage Camelot being held up and not getting a clear run which is less likely now. I can still see it getting beaten and therefore will take him on as well as Bonfire as the value - much like the Oaks yesterday - probably lies out side the first two. The only horses that have won over a mile and a half, coincidentally, are the two I like Main Sequence and Mikdaam. Their form is linked via Model Pupil and Shantaram and in truth there is little between them. So again a difficult decision whether to back them both or one of them each way. I have opted for backing them both and expect 12/1 and 50/1 at least as sp's (I am on Mickdaam already at 75/1).


3.20 Catterick  - Powerful Presence 2 pts win

This horse did us proud last time and I will stick with it despite the penalty. The quicker ground shouldn't be a problem as it has won on it previously. It is likely to be favourite but deservedly so but you can get 3/1 on here now which it fair.




Too much racing today and I fancy quite a few others but many are favourites which seem priced about right at this stage. The ones listed below are outsiders that I have rejected as main bets but will have £5 patent and retire if it comes up !! None of there are recommended or included in the profit and loss figures so if you find it annoying look away now :-

2.35 Haydock - Gossamer Seed  20/1 - probably outclassed
3.15 Epson - Taajub - 40/1 - impossible draw
4.40 Haydock - Intense Pink 14/1 - different ground

Lets hope for better today

Good Luck

Oz


For the benefit of any new viewers the sole purpose of this blog is to make money month after month by betting on flat racing. Profits are calculated at starting price so everyone can get on even though prices are usually available at much bigger odds at time of posting on these exchanges. Unfortunately we will go without winners at times so if you are following me please keep a bank available to ensure you can ride out those losses. Bets are between 1 and 5 points

In May we ended up 21pts up to add to April profits of 22.5pts so 43.5pts so far this year and off, hopefully, to another successful month. If anyone wants a full list of the bets in May please email me.

THE OAKS - Kissed 1pt win - Kailani 1 pt win

I am keen to take the front two on here as they were beaten by miles in the 1000 Guineas. I know the winner was exceptional that day but there could be an unexposed filly lurking here - the question is which one ? If you look at the unbeaten ones Vow's time at Lingfield wasn't very good so that leaves Kissed and Kailani both of which could be the improvers. It is guesswork but I will risk a point on each and enjoy the race.

EPSOM 1.40 - Lay Time 4 pts win - Boastful 0.5 pt win

This race is not a strong as it seems and provided she strips fit enough here I expect Lay Time to win this fairly comfortably. She was a big improver last year and this race has been the target for some time. Of the others I have most regard for Boastful and will put a small saver on this one just in case.

BRIGHTON 4.45 Ansell's Pride 1 pt win

The bounce merchants will be taking this one on today as it won last time after a absence of 627 days. I don't really subscribe to this theory and reckon it can beat Brown Pete as its time was quicker on the same day. Ansell's Pride was rated as high as 83 in the past and I expect further improvement from it's current mark of 63 now its with Bill Turner. I think it should be favourite so 7/2 is worth taking.

Good luck all - back tomorrow


For the benefit of any new viewers the sole purpose of this blog is to make money month after month by betting on flat racing. Profits are calculated at starting price so everyone can get on even though prices are usually available at much bigger odds at time of posting on these exchanges. Unfortunately we will go without winners at times so if you are following me please keep a bank available to ensure you can ride out those losses. Bets are between 1 and 5 points

Running profit for May 22 pts - profit for April was 22.5 pts

Apparently you have to get used to losing in this game as you back far more losers than winners. It still isn't easy to take though when they really should have won. I am surely not alone in thinking that Kathlatino was the best horse in the race yesterday. If you disagree just watch it again.


Last day of the month and I don't want profits to dip below 20 points so a couple of small bets:-

2.30 Brighton - Bennelong 0.5 pt win

This is very open. Filun runs well here and Aciano ran quite well in a fast time last time out. Bennelong is a course winner and ran in a good race on the all weather last time being given a bit too much to do. I was pleased to see he was 6/1 on here which is a bit too big and so worth a bet.

9.20 Newcastle - Mango Music 0.5 pt win

Wore cheekpieces for the first time on it's reappearance and travelled well for some time before getting tired on ground that was too soft. Cheekpieces off today and quicker ground. A competitive event but on last year's form should not be the outsider and is 16/1 so good value - just a shame only seven runners which prevents an ew selection.


Yesterday I mentioned a few horses that were of interest to me and I had a couple of comments and e mails regarding this. The reason they were mentioned is that every day I have to whittle the selections down and I included them just to make this blog a bit more interesting. I am not suggesting you back them and they are not included in the profit and loss figures. I will discontinue with this if it is irritating - please let me have your thoughts.

Discarded selections :-

4.55 Ayr - Miss Blink
6.45 Sandown - Storm Moon
8.55 Sandown - Diverting


Good luck for today - Epsom tomorrow and full steam ahead for a profitable June



For the benefit of any new viewers the sole purpose of this blog is to make money month after month by betting on flat racing. Profits are calculated at starting price so everyone can get on even though prices are usually available at much bigger odds at time of posting on these exchanges. Unfortunately we will go without winners at times so if you are following me please keep a bank available to ensure you can ride out those losses. Bets are between 1 and 5 points