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Holy crap what a finish that was
Love the Vuelta ![]() |
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Nibali dropped
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Rest day has come at the wrong time for me. Riis took full advantage of rest days as a pro and his cyclists tend to come back a little stronger after the rest day.
Layed a little bit more of Horner off and had a little bit more against Nibali as he's far too short. I suspect this will be decided on Angry Lou and in current form I don't see Nibali being able to stick with Horner. A lot of ground to be covered before we get to that point. |
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For Riis read Vino.
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Who else thinks Horner insurance is a wise play? SP.
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I think it is wise. Cheats prosper.
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If you are heavily exposed on Horner I'd look to cover. It's a two horse race with the second horse looking forward to the steep ramps in the last few days.
Not touching anything today as the breakaway could stay away again. |
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No bet for me today either, wasn't sure whether sprinter teams could reel in the break and its a horrible looking ramp and descent about 10k out of Burgos. I went for Spartacus and Roux in my tipping comp.
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After a slow start -- and thanks to MC1 and Dope that at least it was positive by swaying me on Nibali -- I'm not willing to lose most of my meagre Nibali green to dig Horner out of half-field-red position. I'm heavy red on Valverde and Purito, but I'm going to play the odds on Horner, for a tad bit longer. Nibali looks good, but whilst Horner looks suited to the steep climbing his age just doesn't fit the spreads.
Great laying market today, alas there were no bets for me, either. Cheers, SP |
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I've been trying to work out a position to take for today. It's a stage that was made for J-Rod and at 3.6 he is rightly the heavy favourite.
That said I'll be opposing him for the following reasons.. 1) Do Movistar and Katusha have the leg power to ride hard all day to stop a break from succeeding? Probably. 2) If we have a hard stage it will more than likely affect the guys with Tour legs. 3) Papa has been master of the uphills regularly dropping J-Rod 4) When it has come to a sprint finish, Bala has had a slight edge on J-Rod 5) I expect Pozzovivo and his team(If there are any left) to try and attack Nico early after having their pants pulled down by Saxo yesterday. The rest day should mean that those looking for a refill should be in top condition. Horner is my favourite, but if anyone can stay with him he's toast in the sprint. Also looking to lay Nico if Saxo try something off the 2nd Cat |
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very dodgy pefromance by horner - record climb by over 20 seconds
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*performance
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Wow. Nibali is shot.
Slightly overdid laying Horner and now he's my worst result. IMO only being pinged stops Horner from winning this. |
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Great run by Kiri to save SKY's Vuelta as well.
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Sammy Sanchez is going to have a go today isn't he? So obvious
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Someone thinks Eddy Boss is going to have a go today too... more money matched on him than anyone else... don't see it myself.
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Unless one of the GC contenders wants to sacrifice riders to look for the time bonuses this is going to be a break, with Angry Lou coming up tomorrow I don't see it.
Don't see it happening for Eddy Bos either but the money suggests someone has said he is going for it. I'd take Henao out of the SKY riders. My main pick for today is Mr. Breakaway, Mr. Glorious Failure, the great Amets Txurruka. I expect both he and Edet to try and get in the break for the mountain classification points, so I've backed both looking to trade in running. |
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Both my choices in breaks and trading lower but I was too busy on the football to take advantage.
Horner in red and the way Nibali is going he could drop off the podium on Angry Lou. |
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Clay, missed your opinions earlier in proceedings -- maybe I wouldn't have to be taking a loss with Horner, if you were to have swayed me on keeping him safe.
Purito opened as favourite on here for the stage, but there's no way he's ripping into tomorrow to get nearly 2mins back. ![]() Cheers, SP |
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What an absolute joke sport..........age 41 and suddenly wins a Grand Tour ROFL
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Just totted up my P/L for the Vuelta from all sources. Turned in a decent performance but ended with a loss of £59.
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Looking back on the 3 weeks passed, where did Nibali lose the tour? Was it in the 1st week, when he handed the leader's jersey to Horner twice, or was it in stages 14 and 15, when he missed to take time out of him on the 2 bad weather mountain stages, thinking it would be enough to defend the advantage?
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Interesting question -- I considered Horner being a danger, but was confident that Nibali was riding smart, not allowing the situation to get away from him or defending too heavily and putting himself into energy debt; and generally saving himself for the showdown on L´Angliru. Since the penultimate stage came down to who had the better legs between the two rivals, and considering that both knew -- from the start -- that this is where a time gap of up 45 secs could be defended or attacked, in my opinion Nibali lost the Vuelta here, in a battle of attrition of energy levels for the entire season, in so far as Horner hadn't ridden a GT this season and Nibali had ridden and won the Giro, earlier.
Cheers, SP |
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Disregarding the betting side, as fans does it bother you that the winner (and therefore probably many others in the race) have possibly been 'helped' so to speak or does the excitement override that? And would you say the Giro D'Italia is also this way? As an irregular fan the idea that rather than pure sporting ability its potentially who is on the best gear that decides the outcome totally destroys the sport (especially on mountain stages, my favourite). Its probably a naive view but the man v man v mountain has to be one of the most purest of sporting tests that deserves to be clean.
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It's not my area of interest to discuss such matters, never has been -- sorry! SP.
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I just think that they have found new, effective ways to microdose EPO. I believe it is a C02 inhaler delivery system means they avoid detection but still get a big performance boost. It was apparently being trialled by many teams in the Tour and because it hadnt been perfected at that stage it led to some people and teams having very poor or up and down tours.
Seems some have got it right now. Once again, they're ahead of the testers. |
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I think we can say with confidence that seven out of the top ten were cheating without any fear. The other three? One I'd be extremely worried about after previously riding clean(My opinion) and the other two have the benefit of the doubt.
We all knew it was going to be a freak fest as you don't get pinged in Spain unless you annoy the powers that be. The only surprise for me is that Contador didn't turn up and win it by 10 mins. I don't think most of those cheating at the Vuelta are using anything new. Why bother with the expense? That's not to say there isn't anything new floating around, there clearly is. |
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As for where Nibali lost it. A combination of two stages I think.
Firstly underestimating Horner when he took 50 mins on the first MTF and then not going the full Pozzovivo in the TT when he already knew Horner had mountain legs. |
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7/10?
The 3 I'd be most confident about being clean looking at that top 10 would be Nibali, Pinot and Roche. There's only 2 in the top 10 I'm sure were doping, (CH & DP) and with the other 5 there wasn't anything that caught my eye as being freakish but who knows either way? |
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I've always thought Roche has ridden clean. Always had the talent but hasn't been able to apply himself 100%, now since he's shacked up with Riis he suddenly gets more consistent and starts TT'ng. That worries me.
Pinot & Konig are the other two. Pretty sure Nibali topped up before Angliru, his battle with Horner reminded me of Rasmussen v Contador. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6WRqxW9Jyt8 |
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Forgive the Machiavellian thought processes but it did cross my mind that the USADA ‘missed appointment’ with Chris Horner for his random dope test seemed a little odd.
It made me wonder if they had serious doubts about the credibility of his performances but very little confidence of obtaining a positive test result. They then (deliberately?) turn up at the wrong place and let Team Radioshack unwittingly publicise the missed test. Black propaganda mission accomplished? Okay, I confess I’m not really being very serious here but it might make a good storyline for a soap opera… |
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I'd suggest as there was a mix up between USADA and their Spanish counterparts, the latter looking for a clean Vuelta may be a similar far fetched story.
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It does seem likely to be EPO-type blood doping of some sort. But both Horner and Froome are skeletal - even for cyclists - they have faces like E.T - so maybe it's something to do with fat burning.
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AICAR seems to be what the pros were using a few years ago to lose mass without losing power. Supposedly there is a test to detect it, but I'd take that with a pinch of salt.
I'd be surprised if Horner was using anything new. |