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Vuelta a Espana
Vuelta a Espana
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Happybacker -- no one rides the Tour as preparation for the Vuelta. No one! That is just a plain ridiculous statement to make. Bernard Hinault in 1978 was the last to accomplish the Tour/Vuelta double, and many great riders tried it since then and failed. Your belief therefore should be taken as a fantastical theory not based in any form of reality -- I'm sorry!
Purito especially didn't ride the Tour last year, to peak for the Vuelta, finishing 3rd. He rode the Giro instead, finishing 2nd. To think he would have ridden the Tour so hard this year, to prepare for the Vuelta ignores his words and intentions from last year. I'm not saying he won't win this Vuelta, but to consider that he rode the Tour to be competitive in the Vuelta is just plain innacurate to my thinking. I mean, in recent years, who was the last rider to win the Vuelta, who also rode the Tour (let alone claim a podium finish)? Menchov in 2007, who didn't even finish the Tour?  Cheers, SP |
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bb66 -- good point, but happy to be out of my Nibali lay nevertheless. Brajkovic looked very weak although he might improve later, and whilst I got a small look at Kangert in Poland, from what I did see I wasn't much impressed. He had an opportunity to win that race and was found out as an inept challenger not particurlarly suited to climbing, but may have a rare top-10 day on a stage with a 1 cat climb somehwere close to the finish.
I think that's definitely a factor to watch closely in Astana, however Movistar's bar-room tactics didn't really impress me either, in that stage 2 burn. In fact, I don't really see a dominant climbing team for the mountains like we might expect from Sky, in so far as the team really controls the stage/race for their rider. Yes, there are some good climbers in each of the principals' teams, but I think they'll pretty much cancel each other out to leave most of the fighting on the climbs to the principals to mark each other, or get on the back of an uphill train formed by various teams. Cheers, SP |
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Hi SP,
Yes i accept that was a bit of a ridiculous statement to make. No rider would ride a tour as prep for a vuelta, and he was very open that he wanted to win the tour this year. It was just to make the point that i believe and from what i've read so does Purito believe that he is in much better shape now than he was at the start of the tour. His big goal all season was the TDF but for whatever reason he just wasn't in the same form this season that he was in last season. By the 3rd week though he had rode himself in to his best form he was at the top of his game, and he knew then he just had to do the vuelta. Like you say it is not usual for a rider from the tour to go on and win the vuelta but I firmly believe Rodriguez will do just that this year. Far from hindering him, I think riding the tour has greatly helped him. He went very close to winning the vuelta last year after very nearly winning the giro. Obviously there is much less of a gap from the tour, but it shows that he is very capable of riding 2 very hard grand tours in one season. If anything he rode even better in the vuelta last year than he did in the giro, it could be that he just thrives on riding more. |
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Hey HB,
Yes, there are some riders who get better with more riding, but it is very rare. How has the Tour greatly helped Purito for the Vuelta? |
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Greatly helping maybe over exaggerating it but i think it has definitely helped him. As he went to the tour as rider not really in the best of form and eventually rode himself in to top form. So in that respect i think it has helped him, as he comes here now in better form than he did at the beginning of july. It maybe that come the brutal end of the 3rd week here that his legs are done, but i think that he's a rider who thrives on more riding and fully expect him to be still going strong when they reach the Angliru.
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According to most websites Horner is the oldest man ever to lead a grand tour. Got to love the Vuelta.
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SP - to me Radio Shack seems to have the most compact equipe again, but noone stands out for the GC, Busche already 3' back, so they will probably try to get Kiserlovsky into top 5 with support from the 2 old men, and having Spartacus in the ITT the team classification maybe will be their main target again
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@HB
can you already see what I meant saying, that in most of the mountain top finishes there isn't much time to gain?. It probably will be about about winning 5" here and losing 10" there, so it wouldn't surprise me at all we'll still have 5 riders to go into the Angliru stage within less than 90" difference, which easily could be taken out in this stage. |
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HB -- overlooking the fact that Purito finished 2nd in LBL, he did look underdone in the Tour, in so far as he rode himself into form, and therefore into that excellent 3rd place finish most of the forum saw coming. But that's where it ends for him, I'm afraid. His good form, just like the good form of any rider in the Tour is nearly impossible to keep for the Vuelta. I therefore think you're overlooking the fact that good Tour form doesn't transfer to the Vuelta. Look at Carlos Sastre in 2008 after he won the Tour, he was tired in the third week of the Vuelta, finishing on the podium in 3rd place, but over 4mins behind the winner Bertie.
So to argue that Purito was helped by riding the Tour, only translates to him riding into form in the Tour. He couldn't have been helped for the Vuelta, because for the Vuelta a new form peak must be begun by the rider and therefore previous form is nearly always irrelevant, especially when it's form from the Tour, and especially when that rider has gone hard for a top placing. I initially thought Purito might be the best of the Tour riders, but I continue to form the view that both Purito and Valverde will suffer in the third week enough to fade from GC calculations. Cheers, SP |
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bb66 -- both Kiserlovski and Hermans had opportunities to win Poland, and Kiserlovski had no excuses going into the ITT on the last day there, but both failed. Nevertheless, I understand your view of Radioshack and will watch closely.
I know you've said earlier you weren't backing Uran, and I said I didn't rate him, but he -- so far -- looks quite solid, no? Cheers, SP |
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I've taken some -- trading -- interest in Italian rider Capecchi in-running, after ignoring him at ante-post. He was one on the short list prior to the start, on account of a 25th place showing here last year, and finally overcoming a virus problem which affected his riding over the last few years. It was the remains of a childhood Strepto virus that rose-up because his diet was based on white meat and eggs, apparently. Also, his terrible Giro ride earlier in the season came because of an allergy problem he had there, and yet he was above race weight whilst not eating. His upbeat confidence ahead of the Vuelta in having trained hard and finally beating his illnesses, appears valid as he is sitting comfortably in 15th place, less than a minute behind, and has the potential to do something special.
Will start paying for value riders on the first page of the GC such as in the case of Capecchi, by laying Valverde and Purito. The former is working hard and will eventually abandon GC aspirations and just go for stages, whilst trying to tune his form ahead of the Worlds. Also, if Capecchi can improve a little by getting into the top-10 than it's more likely Valverde won't require his assistance, and will definitely settle for stage wins. That's still some way away, so until that begins to show some evidence, I will lay some Purito with the view that he will run out of juice in the legs by the third week as discussed earlier. Cheers, SP |
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very quiet here these days
 SP - forgot to answer about SKY riders. The reason for seeing Henao in a better Position than Uran was only due to Uran leaving the team, therefor thinking they would put Henao as their leader. As this should have been reversed by now I can see Uran being a serious candidate for the podium. |
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1.01 gubbed on Martin - wasn't my money, but he would have earned the win, without the turn of Spartacus he might have won
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Yup someone had over £500 on Martin at 1.01
 Funny too that the winner, Morkov, was available at 1000 in play for a long time and no money at all was bet on him. |
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Yeah, i noticed Mørkov avalable at 1000... can't say that i was too tempted though.
Btw, weren't there some bets matched on him towards the end, (at much lower odds)? I thought there was some action there, but could be wrong about that. |
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Yeah, wasn't tempted either.
Using A Geeks Toy it definitely showed no matches on him. There was even money available to back at 13.5 and 13 on Morkov when the market suspended and T. Martin was available to lay at 1.5 too  . With the inplay betting delay and the prompt market suspension not really surprising though, although you have to be careful, cycling markets aren't always suspended to quickly at the conclusion. |
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my pics are so much delayed (ES), that I thought it was already finished when Martin was available to lay @1.01 and he had won, didn't look like it at all to me at that second, so I don't know how someone was tempted to press the button.
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Michael Morkov won the National Champs of Denmark on the road at 200kms -- so 1K was big.
 bb66 -- I agree with you entirely win relation to your initial consideration of Sky riders, and yes now that they have Uran so high up on the GC after Giro performance (which I maintain he disappointed to not have won) it's easy for them (and us) to reverse opinion and install leader status. Not as much liquidity as I would have expected for the GC market (even with the favs) but where do you think his price should be at? Also, agree that Spartacus spoiled it for Martin, who I think everyone will agree deserved the win -- what a magnificent engine! Don't feel sorry for the MUG who backed Martin at 1.01 -- you cannot do that in cycling, especially in that kind of scenario.  How good is Stybar going? 27 years old and he has done nothing until this year. How would he have gone with a ramp to the finish against the World Champion, though? Perhaps one to keep an eye on, going forward. Dan Martin -- ouch! Cheers, SP |
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it's difficult to judge Uran's form compared to his rivals, but I would have him between 3 and 4 maybe for the podium
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Back to the climbers after a couple of relative flat days, definitely not betting on the flatter stages they are just so unpredictable in this vuelta.
With a proper tough mountain stage coming up on monday, I have a feel the likes of Nibali/Rodriguez/Valverde will probably just be watching and marking each other again tomorrow. I expect that to change monday, when i think we will see some real time gaps and a good shake up of the GC. Tomorrows stage (stage 8), is quite short 166km and fairly easy until we get to the climb to the finish. The peleton will quickly be decimated over the first couple of km climbing, as it's very steep to start at 12% for 2km! It flattens out for a few km before ramping up again , and averaging over 7% for the last 5km. Expect to see a bunch of maybe 30 riders still together going in to the last few km. Like I said I don't expect any big attacks from the main contenders. One rider who may fancy an attack again is Konig, he has looked very strong so far and after a Czech winner today he could be fired up to do likewise. Another rider who has looked in great shape, as he was in the first week of the tour, is Mollema, this stage and climb should really suit him. Konig 33/1 Mollema 40/1 |
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Well done, Happybacker! Brilliant call on Konig. Full congratulations and respect!
 Cheers, SP |
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Yes well done. Roche in red
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Great shout on Konig. One of my favourite riders and fully deserved a GT win.
Nibali looked off the gas again, is he targeting the third week and the worlds or is he going to be a trade over the next few days. |
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Uran lost 40" today and seems to be lacking team support
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I think you're asking two different questions, CJ70. 1.) How is the market reacting and going to react to his performance? 2.) Is he still a worthy favourite to win this as an outright bet? To answer the former question first: 1) expectedly he has eased a little in the market but remains favourite because 2.) his credentials haven't really changed, and he is within the amount of time he may regain just in the ITT. In his 2010 winning ride, he rode in a similar fashion -- tactically aware -- not doing the heavy lifting, riding smart by looking at the big picture, and yes obviously keeping the third week in consideration.
This suggests to me that he is coming into good value range, because he is riding comfortably within himself, and losing only small amounts of time which he will be capable of getting back later. I mean, he hasn't done anything wrong, in fact I would argue he has let go of the red jersey in order to release the pressure on his team having to defend it, knowing full-well that remaining relatively fresh in the third week will be decisive for him, and that will be the time to strike. Nibali has become my bank in the GC market, but I'm now considering to increase green on him at this price, since he is riding very intelligently and obviously similar to 2010. Uran not gone like Arroyo, but questions being raised. Good luck to all, SP |
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Stage 10 Alto de Hazallanas.
One of the key stages in this years vuelta, we will see the first really big shake up of the gc. Think Rodriguez and Valverde will be attacking here, with a rest day to follow and then the tt where they will undoubtedly lose time to Nibali. Really fancy Rodriguez to win this stage tomorrow, think he has ridden wisely so far in just marking Valverde and not attacking. But am expecting him to want to gain some big seconds here, there are plenty of sections of 12%+ on the final climb and it should be ideal for Purito to attack. If Purito is content to sit on Valverde's wheel again, which i think is unlikely, then Nieve could be a contender for this stage. He is one of the best climbers in the field, was right there on nearly all the climbs on the tour, and his finish today suggested his form from the tour maybe still there. After dropping out on saturday it's clear he's not here for the gc but just for a stage win or 2! This stage will be just the sort Nieve would feel he could win, though whatever happens tomorrow i feel sure he will definitely be targeting the Angliru stage. His price for tomorrow at pp of 100/1 seems huge for a climber of his ability. Rodriguez 6/1 Nieve 100/1! |
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Not sure it's good for cycling but it's good for my bank balance. Nibali looks better than I expected and I'm considering cashing in on my losses on him.
Will see how the market settles in relation to Horner before deciding whether to get out or not. Always a worry that he might get pinged for previous indiscretions. |
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Horner is CLEAN!
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My previous comments have been deleted. Presumably because of what I said about Chris Horner. I also said I was all over Cancellara at 4/1 today.
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The classic "my post was deleted" aftertime!
 Interested in what you wrote about Horner, though. |
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I said he was a ********** ***** who should be chucked out of the sport and I hoped he would be chucked in **** as well. ******* in the face of cycling.
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Looks like we were tricked to Martin with a wrong 1st time check on Spartacus
 , glad I only did a small bet on Martin 1st |
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All the split times have been wrong all morning, at the first split anyway.
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Eurosport still using the old (wrong) split times
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The way Spartacus flexed his legs to chase down Martin on stage 6 when Morkov won, made for a compelling case he would be back to his best form in the ITT here, especially after doing those impressive turns in the TTT. He's having a magnificent season, which got going twice, actually. 3rd Milan-San Remo, 1st E3, 1st Tour of Flanders, and 1st Paris-Roubaix -- like a vintage Boonen or Gilbert season.
Nibali's GC price going into freefall here. Cheers, SP |
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That ride from Pozzovivo was almost as not normal as Horner's on Monday. Are the testers on holiday or something?
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I know and have ridden round all the roads round the end of Stage 11, from Reus round Montroig, through Cambrils and up towards Tarragona. It's coastal and flat into Tarragona. It looks like a sprint stage at first glance, but I'm not sure the sprint teams are strong enough to reel in a strong break if one gets out on the road. There were a couple of time triallers that underperformed in today's stage that make me wonder if a few had their eyes on this stage.
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Juan Antonio Flecha, might be one.
What are your thoughts MC? SP. |
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2013-09-04
17:03 29557773569 2013-09-04 16:33 Vuelta a Espana 2013 Stage 11 TT / Stage Top 3 Finish / Domenico Pozzovivo Lay 1.01 X Lost X 2013-09-04 17:03 29557591326 2013-09-04 16:25 Vuelta a Espana 2013 Stage 11 TT / Stage Top 3 Finish / Domenico Pozzovivo Lay 2.50 X Lost X 2013-09-04 17:03 29557573726 2013-09-04 16:25 Vuelta a Espana 2013 Stage 11 TT / Stage Top 3 Finish / Domenico Pozzovivo Lay 3.00 X Lost X 2013-09-04 17:03 29557491021 2013-09-04 16:21 Vuelta a Espana 2013 Stage 11 TT / Stage Top 3 Finish / Domenico Pozzovivo Lay 4.00 X Lost X 2013-09-04 17:03 29557480913 2013-09-04 16:20 Vuelta a Espana 2013 Stage 11 TT / Stage Top 3 Finish / Domenico Pozzovivo Lay 3.00 X Lost X 2013-09-04 17:03 29557371777 2013-09-04 16:16 Vuelta a Espana 2013 Stage 11 TT / Stage Top 3 Finish / Domenico Pozzovivo Lay 3.00 X Lost X Something tells me that I wont be ending this Vuelta with a profit. Outrageous performance. |
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Seems to be a massive over reaction to Nibali taking the red jersey back, can't believe he is now odds on!
To my eyes everyone finished about where you would have expected in todays TT (except Pozzovivo!). Nibali gained a bit but wasn't as impressive as in the Giro, Horner and Purito lost a little bit which we knew they would. Don't think anyone will be too unhappy after that. The GC still looks wide open to 8 or 9 riders and is far from done and dusted, the real mountain tests are still to come, and there will be some twists yet! As for tomorrow looks sure to be a bunch sprint finish to me, Orica and Omega will make sure of that. Is probably going to be the last chance for them tomorrow before Madrid. Pretty sure Matthews will win the stage but 6/4 not for me. Think friday will be a good day for a break to go all the way. |