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Vuelta a Espana
Vuelta a Espana
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Wouldnt surprise me at all to see Flecha in the break.
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@CJ70 I saw someone put on twitter that after Cobo, Horner and now Pozzovivo, you'd be better off backing people on the X-Factor than in the Vuelta.
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It's true. Although we can pick out certain people as likely to have 'better than expected' results in the Vuelta, indeed most of my green book in the winner's market is due to Horner.
The day a guy that weighs 8 stone outdiesels Nibali, Cancellara and Tony on a 4% ramp is the day where reality left the room!  |
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Totally agree. When you consider he almost definitely lost time on the descent, he probably did the rest of the course faster than Tony Martin
It just beggars belief. When that comes two days after 42 year old Horner leaves Nibali for dead it just makes a complete mockery of the sport. I wanted to believe Wiggins and Froome were clean but this nonsense just leaves me cold. You can't help but think that whatever Sky have had their hands on has now spread into the rest of the peloton. |
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I think we can put this down to the lax testing in Spain rather than anything else. Horner has been hitting his straps in all the races that have no testing, so he was bound to be up to the eyeballs on product here. Both he and Pozzo would be pinged in France, you would have to crack more than a few eggs to be pinged here.
Belkin and SKY have been blown away so far, I don't think that's a coincidence. |
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Anything can happen here. Don't think there's a bet I want to have today, except to maybe take a chance on a break staying out. Might just throw a couple of quid at a few Adam Hansen, Tony Martin and Dario Cataldo types just in case. And I'll take Boassen Hagen and Spartacus late on against the sprinters, lots of furniture and sharp turns on the way into Tarragona. Might suit a late attack from Flecha as well.
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Had a little dabble on Matthews as OGE are all over the peloton and as long as they don't mess up the lead out he should be up there. Looks like a stage built for crashes in the last K.
Just seen the pictures of Pozzo yesterday, he didn't even use a TT bike. |
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using a normal road bike (tbh I didn't spot it) might be the explanation why he was faster uphill, but lost 1:40 from top to arrival
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It doesn't explain how he managed to beat Tony on the relative flat of the first CP.
Tony off on a banzai, no Pozzo in the wheel today. |
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Good stuff on giving the forum the character of the run-in to the finish, MC1.
 Cheers, SP |
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...Well perhaps not entirely, but I did get enough of a flavour to pick-up from where you finished. Very narrow roads, causing high speeds and rough riding for hard-as-nails finishers. Pity I had lost faith in Gilbert for so long that I didn't even consider him for this -- finish looked made-to-order for him. Arghh...
 Definitely missed an opportunity here, but the correct thinking was there. Cheers, SP |
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Stage 13 is set-up for a breakaway succeeding after the cat 1 climb gives suitable candidates the launching pad for a 50km, relatively downhill ride to the finish. The dip on the profile soon after the cat 1, might contribute to their advantage since it will allow the climbers to consolidate their advantage, or at least have a better chance of defending it. The Books will invariably come up with some default favourite, and some lay value might be open for pouncing on if liquidity comes. As I write this, in fact, it looks like the Swinging D!ck has gone with Basso to be installed as favourite, and so at nearly 3mins behind I would question if he would win from the breakaway? And that makes me lean toward an initial lay, but I suspect it won't be at 2/1.
I think you need a certain type of climber in this break, in so far as he might be best served by being on the heavier and larger physical frame. Will wait to see who makes the break and the gap with 40kms to go, but the likes of someone like Laurens Ten Dam ticks some boxes in ante-poste, or even fellow team-mate Mollema looks good if he can recapture the good riding he showed in the first week. Incidentally, during the 10th stage he had given up all GC hopes on account of fatigued legs, and then in post-stage interview went on to say he'll conserve energy levels as much as possible until a suitable stage presents itself to go for stage glory and get something for the team. His last two stages, especially, have looked like training rides, so if his legs are good, he may be one dangerous candidate to have before the off. Good luck to all, SP |
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Gilbert will be favourite for tomorrow imo. Don't fancy the break, the Cat1 is only 4.3km and there are, as you mentioned, 50kms to race after that - can see this being brought back for the puncheurs like Phil Gil.
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It is 4k+ at 10% though isnt it?
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yes, 4.3km @ 10.6% avg.
But it'll have little to no impact on the stage due to how far it is from the finish. No-one is going to take 5mins on the peloton and solo home from here. I don't see the break being allowed to go all the way. |
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despite the shorter (but much steeper instead) climb and the longer way to the finish from there I think a Scenario like we had in this year's TdF stage 16 into Gap is possible with 1 (or even 2) lead groups of 10-15 men - the 2nd maybe (if a bit larger) even including the GC contenders. Different to Gap though we have a 10% ascend on the last 500m here, which makes it a different kind of rider to pick for the win.
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Break is winning this.
I'll take Coppel was fantastic in the time trial the other day, can climb and Cofidis really need something cos they've had a poor year. Still available at 24 even after I've had my fill. |
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Taken some 55s on Gilbert just in case they peg it back
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bunch sit up, so take your pick from the 9.
Reckon Nocentini and Santaromita are the best two from this sort of escape, but I'll take my chance on Coppel and Inxausti |
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Right then, who has got the best drugs today? I'm going to go with Basso and Pozzovivo.
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The next three days are the most important of the vuelta, and will go along way to deciding who is this years winner. The race really does get brutal from here, there will be no hiding place, and only those truly climbing well will be left in contention.
To my mind mondays first mountain proper showed the 5 Gc riders that are climbing best, and the ones to concentrate on, Nibali, Horner, Rodriguez, Pinot, and Basso. You will notice i've not included Valverde or Roche as i thought they were in trouble on monday and only got back on because the others slowed after Horner attacked. Purito showed in his little attack yesterday that he knows he has to start taking time back this weekend, and hopefully it was a sign that he is starting to feel really strong. I feel sure he will attack on todays final climb and will be looking for the stage win. The other rider I really want to back over the next couple of days is Pinot. To my eyes he looked the most comfortable (bar Horner) on mondays stage, and I think he has been overlooked and way over priced. Pinot is a very good climber well capable of staying with the best as he has shown on the tour in the past. His achilles heel has been his tendency to have the odd bad day but he has looked strong here and hopefully he will keep his form over the next week. I put him up at the start of the tour as a good bet for top 10 and an outsider for the podium, the top 3 might be just out of his grasp this week but hopefully he should safely be in the 10. stage 14 Rodriguez 9/2 Pinot 40/1 |
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gonna have a little nibble on 4 outsiders
marcos garcia simon clarke maciej paterski antonio piedro gwaaan the break |
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I've been against Pinot as it's raining and they have long downhill sections. If he abandoned TdF because he is scared of descending he wont be anywhere near over that yet.
Not sure they will go all out to catch the break including Ratto, Gilbert, Brown, LuLu & Chainel. We should get pictures just before the peleton tops Envalira. If it looks like the GC contenders are going to fight out the stage I'll be all over Pozzo & Horner. |
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Traders wet dream or nightmare.. No footage in the mountains as the helicopters are grounded.
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LuLu abandoned because of hypothermia after crashing. Sounds like a lovely day up there.
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Yeah terrible conditions alright sounds horrible.
And CJ so much for Pinot's descending problems, he has now attacked on the descent and is in a small group ahead of the peleton! |
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Valverde has been dropped and Basso! sounds like carnage today!
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Basso also retired with hypothermia! Brutal stage and it will only get harder this week!
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Good news if Pinot is over it, certainly a day to find out. Layed a bit of Ratto at short prices as we have no time checks to the chasers.
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Papa and Nibbles in a two horse race.
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Nibali looks like this weather doesn't bother him as we already saw in the Giro
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Yeah CJ it is beginning to look a two horse race, as much as i want Purito to win it's not looking likely now! At least Pinot improved his position and looks sure for top ten.
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Tomorrow will be the main indicator I think. Who will recover for tomorrow, if anybody lost time today were they saving themselves for tomorrow.
I don't expect Papa to feel a second hard day in the saddle for obvious reasons. Not sure about Nibali, he looked like he was riding at about 80% and schooled the field today. Will he have a bad day tomorrow? Weather is set to be poor again and if the pace is high and we get attacks on the descent, Nibali has form for pushing too hard and coming a cropper. Don't expect the break to be in a position to take the day tomorrow and it looks like a J-Rod finish, I suspect he'll be super short for tomorrow. |
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CJ I agree tomorrow is THE crucial stage, and if you fancy J-Rod get on to b365 he's 10/1! And i see pp are going 14/1 Nibali! Both seem huge prices to me. I assume Valverde has been made fav because of his win on this finish in last years tour. That was a far easier stage, and didn't come on the back of such a brutal day, where he spent the last hour or 2 chasing as hard as he could to get back on. Hats off to him it was a great effort to limit his losses today but in no way does that suggest to me he is about to win the biggest hardest stage of this vuelta.
I can't see a break staying out tomorrow even if the weather is as bad again. The stage is very long and they will have done 200km by the time they get to the top of the port de bales, i think any break will be caught on that climb. I expect it will then be a showdown of the very elite on the final climb/climbs, Nibali and Horner, probaly Rodriguez, maybe Pinot and very questionably Valverde. Purito desperately wants to win a stage this weekend but can he drop Nibali? I'm not sure, I hope so. I think it's between the 2, and obviously Horner, tough I just have a feeling the old man will have an off day soon?? The fly in the ointment are Euskatel. They love to win stages in the pyrenees, they were strong today with 4 in the top 20, and Sammy Sanchez seems to be getting stronger every day. I have a feeling one of their riders will have a dig for home from a long way out, maybe Sanchez, maybe Nieve/Anton/Landa? stage 15 bets Rodriguez 10/1 Nibali 14/1 Nieve 25/1 |
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Had a nibble at J-Rod at 12's, Papa Horner at 16's and Pozzovivo at 50's. The stage profile to me screams J-Rod territory and I can't ignore the juice twins. All three are a bit big, so I'm hoping to lay a bit back when the market forms properly or when we go in play.
I can't make out why Bala is favourite here either. His comments after the race today suggest he is suffering badly and if it comes down to a GC group I'd take Papa, Nibali and J-Rod all before him. I'm not sure if it's just me, but I think Euskatel have switched off a little since the Alonso news came through? My outsiders of the day that I'm hoping to pick up for a big price are Leopold, Nico and Kiriyenka. |
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Even at 8/1 Nibali is a cracking each way bet today. His team are doing a good job, and unlike the others he doesn't really need to push today.
Little pop on Cataldo today at 80s and a bigger bet on him to beat Sarmiento at 9/10. |
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Got 33/1 Barguil top 10. Wins two stages but hours down...So close but so far
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MC1 -- well done on uncovering this young Barguil lad, I wasn't aware of his promise and you have tipped him for the top-10 from the very start. How did you come across him in research? SP.
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Heard the Argos DS talking about him and the young sprinters before the Tour and had a look what I could find. Not in the bag yet today, two riders chasing.
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I understand, the Argos team are really looking like a development squad, aren't they? Great win today though -- he has shown his stuff when being challenged by Uran. SP.
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