Vuelta a Espana

Good start MC -- will follow your point of entry.

Nibali is a deserving favourite, however his price is far too short and represents no value at this time. Nevertheless, his form is sound. After winning the Giro he slowly worked his way into the late part of the season with essentially a training ride in Poland, followed by a decent podium in the Vuelta a Burgos, a good lead-in race for the Vuelta. But if we go to the start of the season, we can conclude that the writing was on the wall for his Giro win, when we take into account his 1st place finishes in the tough Tirreno-Adriatico, and then the Giro del Trentino, which he followed with a good 23rd place result in Liege - Bastogne - Liege.

There should be no dispute that the Giro/Vuelta double in the same year, is the easiest to accomplish, since by not riding the Tour -- as Nibali hasn't -- there is enough time to pick-up fresh legs and form twice in the one season. Nibali showed in 2010/11 seasons that he could accomplish three GT podiums in twelve months, by going; Giro 3rd, Vuelta 1st, Giro 2nd. He rode with real street-smarts to win that 2010 Vuelta, but he had also done a lot more racing than this year; in so far as he rode an additional five classics races, if the tour of Slovenie in 2010 and this year's tour of Poland cancel each other out.

All Vuelta's are tough tests, but this year the parcours looks very tough indeed, and therefore team strength will be very important in deciding the outcome of the race, and so Nibali will have good support in the form of once promising GC rider Janez Brajkovic, after he showed good signs of positive riding in Burgos. Incidentally, Brajkovic was having a fairly good season prior to the Tour, and was hopeful of repeating his top-10 result before he crashed-out in stage 6 with a deep cut to his knee.

However, what I think presents Nibali as poor value, is his mental state and the inability to cope with the pressure of expectation as the standout favourite. Yes, he is suited, but he is already making excuses, from suggesting that the Worlds are more important, to stating that he'll ride for stage wins and the podium. Additionally, the last rider to complete the Giro/Vuelta double was Bertie in 2008, and whilst Nibali has had an excellent season, I'm not convinced he is as good a rider as Bertie was then. I therefore think Bertie would've won Burgos or got a podium in Poland.

Riders who rode the Tour before the Vuelta have a shockingly poor strike-rate and whilst Valverde did finish 2nd last year, we should remember that he finished some 42 minutes behind in the Tour, and so wasn't working as hard as in this year's Tour. He did ride exceptionally well in San Sebastian for 2nd after the Tour this year, but he is another year older, and I question his ability and fitness to challenge for the win when the decisive selections are being made.

I therefore would have Purito as the best of the bunch from the Tour, but won't be backing him on account of the fact that he could only manage a podium last year when he rode the Giro and not the Tour, the easier combination.

Henao, whilst already 26 years-old this year, only rode his first GT last year in the Giro, finishing in the top-10. In fact; 2012 was his first World Tour season, and Sky got their money-worth with him when he represented the team very well in the Ardennes; 29/14/21. He followed-up the Giro with two podiums, in Poland and Burgos, and perhaps he had too much riding by the time the Vuelta rolled along, since he could only manage to finish in 14th place. This year, he has had another good season, but is only aiming for a top-5 result and a stage win, plus being "entertaining" by being with the principals for most of the race. I think the biggest time gaps will come on the really steep climbs, and he might be one to have on side early, since his style suits steep-climbing, and that is why I prefer him over his countryman Uran, who I don't rate at this time since he had an opportunity to win the Giro and disappointed.

Kreuziger is value to shorten into a good trade at that price or thereabouts, if he can get something going early, but I can't have him since; 1.) he rode the Tour, 2.) looks a little portly, and 3.) will be unsuited by the parcours.

I'm not willing to discuss Betancur at this time, since I've got a little project going for another rider which hasn't been included in the market as yet, but may look better and may be suitably overlooked in the market. Additionally, I'm still building most of my positions, so am not comfortable to disclose my selections at this time.

Finally, Sammy Sanchez, might be one to take early if he decides to give it a tilt in the first week, but I won't be backing him since he is far too old.

Good luck to all,
SP

Enjoyed reading your thoughts lads.

Was Nibali carrying the equivalent of a pensioners handbag in Burgos? 3's is to short and is an automatic lay for me considering we don't know in what shape he is. If this is a fully primed Nibali I may regret that as 3's in this field is big.

I don't think you can go wrong backing outsiders here with a view to trade. Apart from '10 the winners roster looks like a who's who of doping allegations and bans. I doubt that will change this year. If your face fits you are unlikely to get pinged at the Vuelta and everyone knows it. I don't like it, no cycling fan likes it, but as a betting angle it makes for interesting prices on certain riders.

I have 5-8 outsiders that I'm looking at and I'll be including some unreformed dopers in my selections if the liquidity/price makes it viable.

Two bets in the top 10 market

Jelle Vandendert 20/1
Warren Barguil 33/1

bb66 -- Wiggins abandoned after stage 12. Uran was only 124secs down on the leader Nibali at that stage of the race. On stage 14, when Betancur only lost 9secs to Nibali, Uran faded to lose 30secs up on the final climb to the summit finish of Bardonecchia. The following stage, 15, up to the famous summit finish of the Col du Galibier, Uran managed to stick-on with Nibali this time, but his fellow countryman, the exciting Betancur, showed how suited he is to steep climbs by gaining 12 secs over him and the leader. This was the kind of thing Uran needed to be doing, taking a few seconds here and there, but he just couldn't do it over Nibali, nor even Betancur for that matter, losing 6secs on stage 18 and 2secs on stage 20 to Betancur. He was down nearly 5mins in the end to Nibali, whilst being only 2mins down when Wiggins abandoned. Is that strategy? Looks more like inability to me.

That Henao and Betancur are both ahead of Uran in the market is of no surprise to me, and whilst Team Sky have named Henao as its leader and are expecting big things of him, I would maintain that Betancur is the best of the three Colombians, and most likely to have a mini-adventure on a suitably steep climb to make something happen for himself; although he is still rather inexperienced, and the primary reason why I won't be backing unless I'm matched much better.

Nibali has been drifting slightly and I layed him expecting a small trade, however with a mountaintop finish, albeit to the low altitude of 630m, in only the 2nd stage of the race, I'm considering leaving most of it untouched in the expectation that the nerves will have the better of him so early in the race, and we find to have a leader with a name which will keep Nibali's price where it should have been when the Books opened.

Cheers,
SP

I think Betancur is one of the greatest talents out there but he hasn't raced since the Giro that I can see. The fact that he's had no prep (why did he pull out of Burgos?) means I can't have him for this. I think he'll end up winning some of the higher summit finishes in the second half of the race.

I write the way I think and speak, so perhaps if we were in a face-to-face conversation you would also find the same difficulty. If it bothers you, I would suggest you just don't read what I'm writing -- I do this as much for myself as for the forum.

After the Giro, Betancur went to Colombia, his schedule changed when the Burgos ride came around. I don't know why it changed. However, with young riders, it's often the case that they don't need much riding, and can often stay fresh and competitive with some minor training only. I wouldn't consider his lack of riding to be a major point in the likelihood of his strong competitiveness, since as you infer, he might work his way into the race with some strong showings. Betancur is also way unders in the market, presently.

Have layed Nibali heavily with the view that if he shortens after exciting the market on stage 2, I am willing to take a small loss on him with a back, although I think that's unlikely. And, have also layed some Valverde, who should be double his present price. Still waiting to get matched on my main bet, and two in support for trades.

Good luck to all,
SP

I don't want to argue too much, no doubt Nibali was better than Uran in the Giro but he achieved what was possible after a handicapped 1st week. The relevant question for the Vuelta though is 'will Nibali be in a similar form like he was in the Giro' which I doubt, but what I also can't agree on is to name him mentally weak. Can you tell me when he underachieved in the last years in the big and even mediocre valued tours when he was pursuing GC?

bb66 -- there's no point arguing for the sake of it, I agree. You've done the intelligent thing and posed a relevant question worthy of the forum's consideration, and allowing us the opportunity in advancing a workable theory.

We only have to look back to the 2011 Vuelta to uncover the state of Nibali's mental weakness when installed as a commanding favourite. After having arguably the best season (2010) of his career, in claiming the podium in the Giro and winning the Vuelta, it was correct that he was the raging favourite for the 2011 Vuelta. After all, he didn't ride the Tour, and improved on his 2010 Giro by one place in finishing 2nd. He also claimed that the Vuelta defence was a priority, when not finishing Slovenie, and turning over the pedals in Poland, much like this year. He sharpened up with a one-day classic in Italy for 15th over less than 200kms going in. However, when it came down to it in the Vuelta, the closest he came to the GC was 9secs in 3rd place after stage 9. He knocked-up in the next stage, the ITT, when it was expected he would make a good showing. The pressure got to him because he couldn't recover, and it was lights-out by stage 15. Essentially, after two weeks of riding his defence was over.

I remember this Vuelta well, because I had very confidentally tipped Australian Chris Sutton for the 1st stage at 50s on this forum, and also tipped Wiggins into favouritism from the very start, and found Cobo -- also at 50s -- in the final week. I'm not sure I held the same view of Nibali then as I do now, but he never came into my calculations. Therefore, the only calculation that I can see now is the one of an inconsistent mind, in terms of what he is saying to the media and how he is coming across, and in my view he is weak mentally.

Cheers,
SP

Not sure about this mental weakness stuff. Yes he had a below par Vuelta in 2011 but I'm not convinced that means he is mentally weak especially since it was 2 years ago.

Nibbles crushed the Giro and the conditions there were horrible (cold/snow/constant rain) surely someone mentally weak would have caved-in there.

Good to read your thoughts, Dope. I agree that Nibali did ride very well in the Giro, and his season before this first GT was very impressive as I alluded too earlier.

So to elaborate... From my perspective, the 2011 Vuelta set a kind of precedent. We are not naive enough to think that riders are not aware of where they are on the Books' margins, and what that actually means in real terms. (Or the way this is reflected in the media.) When a rider is the shortest favourite, it's clear that it's that rider's race to lose, because according to the consensus, this rider is the most likely winner. Therefore, it takes much more mental strength to ride with this pressure of expectation, because if you don't perform to the consensus you will be seen to have been a disappointment. Some riders natural characteristics dictate that they like the underdog status, whilst others prefer the opposite. So far, in the lead-up to this race, Nibali prefers the former since he is talking down his chances and in fact making some strange comments.

Additionally, Nibali wasn't the favourite for the Giro like he is here. He could have ridden in the pack pretty-much unbranded by expectation, and did.

Nevertheless, here like in 2011, Nibali is fully aware that he is the favourite for this race, and it is expected that he performs suitably. So, all-of-a-sudden, he is placed in the pressure-kettle position of the 2010 Vuelta (which incidentally he won) in terms of a complete tactical awareness of not only worrying where he is on the rode in a particular stage, but also where his competitors are, and the crushing pressure of having to perform when Alexandr Shefer gives him the directive. I know this would be happening regardless, but my contention is that it'll be happening from the favouritism tag which doesn't suit his characteristic, according to his performance in the Vuelta two years ago, and the way he is coming across in the media.

In conclusion; Nibali is uncomfortable before even getting on his saddle, and so using the evidence of this discomfort in a poor performance before, I am concluding that once on his saddle and inserted in the peloton, he will crack from the pressure of expectation because he did it in 2011.

Cheers,
SP

Apart from laying Nibali I've managed to get only one bet matched thus far. Txurruka to win! I know and everyone else knows that its doomed to failure but with Txurruka you are guaranteed glorious failure.

I fully expect him to fall going uphill, run over a dog or end up riding through concrete.

If you can overlook his nailed-on 30th place finishes, Txurruka has some strong qualities coming into this. He has stripped fit for this race, hasn't ridden a GT this season, can handle going uphill, is a noted hilly breakaway specialist, and fits many of the spreads which would suggest he may be a good trade, including being Spanish. He is also one of the few riders in the field who has ridden all three GTs in the one year, only last year, although he only made it to the first week of the Tour before abandoning.

What you want out of an Amets Txurruka scenario, is for him to be ignored/overlooked in a breakaway when he's still within reach of the GC, and he has a good day to steal the jersey. He could then hold it for a few days, and some interest would come for him, I think.

Cheers,
SP

winner    Kreuziger (each way)    VCBet    101.00
points classification    Nibali    Bet 365  7.00
top 10    Barguil     Bet 365    34.00
top 10    Vanendert    Bet 365    21.00
mountains classification    Roche    BetVictor 126.00
top 10    Vandendert    BetVictor    23.00
added
points classification Henao (each way) Ladbrokes 26.00

Hi guys,

Good to see many from the TDF threads getting involved here.

I think this could turn out to be a real classic. It looks like the hardest most demanding route i've seen on a grand tour for many years. Make no mistake this is one for the pure climbers, the only riders with any chance of landing a blow on the Gc are the out and out climbers.

To me looks like the books have this about right, with Nibali and Rodriguez clear first 2. Nibali is a deserving favourite after a dominant Giro. and missing the TDF comes here fresher than most of his rivals. The questions are, is he in the same form now? And how strong was the giro field? Well the last couple of days he seems to be talking the talk, so he appears to be confident he is in great shape. As for the Giro, i was impressed with him there, but I do think the fact Evans and Uran were on the podium showed how mediocre the field was. Having said that I think Nibali is a great climber and if in the same shape now is bound to be in the shake up. He will be a tough nut to crack, surely nailed on for at least a podium.

But to me the most likely winner is Rodriguez. For the last few years now he has been one of the most conisistent GC riders and one of the best climbers in the peleton. He does come here after a tough TDF, but rather than a hindrance I think that may be a help to him. As going in to the TDF his form wasn't great and there were doubts around him this year. But after a steady first week, he gradually rode himself in to form, and by the end of the 3rd week he was really flying. I believe that means he now comes here in the best shape he has been in all season, he is proven 3 week GC rider, and is desperate for his first grand tour victory. Winning the vuelta will mean the world to him, and Purito will not make the mistake of taking his eye off the ball like he did last year. I think Purito is a cert for top 3, and by far the most probable winner.

I know thats not the most outrageous tips! Putting up the front 2 in the betting but they are without doubt going to be there when it matters at the end of the 3 weeks.

As for riders who might get involved at bigger prices, theres a couple I've had an interest in.

Firstly Betancur, as mentioned already by SP and others. Has to enter calculations, as he showed in the Giro he is a top draw climber, and this route should be even more suited to him. A certainty for the top 10, and most likely will be top 5. But as a young rider who hasn't done much since the giro, not quite sure he has proved yet that he has the mental and physical strength to withstand the pressure of such a tough 3 weeks. He is definitely a major grand tour contender for many years to come but this might be just a bit to early for him.

The two outsiders however that i'm backing are Dan Martin and Thibaut Pinot.
Martin is going in to his first grand tour as outright team leader for Garmin. That will be a lot of pressure for him, but fully deserved as he's as shown he's a rider of great talent. He can climb and he is very good at getting in to breaks, so might be able to surprise the main GC boys by nicking time in the first week. Probably not strong enough yet to finish podium but should safely be in the top 10.
Pinot is one of the youngest riders in the race at only 23, but for someone of his age is pretty experienced. Looked a definite future contender after the 2012 TDF, where he won a stage and was top 4 on the two toughest mountain stages. Unfortunatley he suffered with illness at this years TDF and eventaully withdrew. But if he is now fully recovered and back in form he could really surprise a few here, because he can certainly climb with the best of them. Again a podium will probably be beyond him just yet, but he should make the top 10.

So my bets! :-
Rodriguez outright 4/1
Nibali points 6/1 (as mc mentioned if Nibali wins he will more than likely win the points jersey so makes sense to back him in that)
Martin outright ew 80/1 and top ten 7/2
Pinot outright ew 120/1 and top ten 7/2
Konig king of mountains 40/1

I'm not sure of Purito being value for the win. 1st going out of the TdF in good shape doesn't necessarily mean he has the top form now as well, and aditionally, while he is a rider capable of winning some mountain top finishes, I don't see him as one who can take much time out of the competitors in doing so (maybe with the exception of Angliru - which could matter most though), and still being a mediocre ITT rider at best I would see him as points classification winner rather

G'day HB -- good stuff mate -- enjoyed reading your thoughts.

I've gone for David Arroyo as my main bet -- some outright and some trade. The Spanish veteran surprised many with his 2nd place finish in the Giro in 2010, beating Nibali by a step. Never comfortable when he moved to Movistar, and with little interest from WT teams, he eventually moved to the little outfit of Caja Rural, and this will be his major disadvantage here, since he won't get much support in a race which requires a good team to perform top on GC. Nevertheless, he has been giving an honest account of himself this season. In the Vuelta a Burgos, where he usually finishes in about 12th place on average, this year he finished 2nd, showing great climbing legs on the final day Queen stage to finish 2nd to Cinderella Quintana, and distancing Nibali quite nicely. His best at the Vuelta came in 2010 also, when he finished in 25th. I think he is happy at Caja Rural, there's no pressure on such a small team, and if he rides like he has shown before -- past and present -- I believe he offers reasonable value as the dark-horse in the field.

Have also taken a small position on promising young Spanish rider, Mikel Landa. For the positive consensus on Betancur, it's a big surprise to me the price discrepancy between these two, especially when you consider how in-form Landa is coming into the Vuelta. I think it might be close between the two young riders, and on that basis couldn't ignore his price.

Good luck to all,
SP

Congratulations on a top pick, Happybacker. Excellent start -- I'm very happy for you mate. SP

Stage 2 - And alrady we have a mountain top finish! Which shows you just what this years Vuelta is all about, climbing and more climbing!

At 178km it's not overly long, and aside from a small cat 3 climb early on, is relatively flat until the finale. An 11km climb to the finsh at Alto Do Monte Da Groba. The climb averages at 5.8% so is not one of the most brutal, but there is a 10% section early on which will whittle it down to the real climbers. It evens out a bit in the middle before kicking up again for the last 2km which avergage 7.8%. So expect some of the real contenders to attack plenty in those last 2k.

This sort of climb is what Purito loves, and he is a worthy fav but I feel he maybe worth taking on today as he had such a tough time dragging Katusha round yesterday. Some books make Valverde fav but i'm still not sure about his form and again at the prices he is far too short.

The 2 I like for today are Nibali and Mollema.

Nibali obviously is one of the best climbers out there and is always going to be there or thereabouts on climbs like this. Like all the riders we still don't know just who is in great form just yet but Nibali did look very comfortable in the TT yesterday. So he has to be in the mix and think he is a bit over priced at 16/1+ with the books and 27.0 on here.

Mollema Had really good first 2 weeks in the TDF before fading badly in the final couple of stages, and I expect he will have similarly good first week here before he fades. A very good climber on his day, this sort of climb at the end of a fairly easy stage is right up his street and I would expect him to be targeting a win here. Again I think his price is huge for someone who just has to be in the shake up today, available at 80/1 with some books last night and 60.0+ on here.

Bets stage 2 -
Nibali win 27.0
Mollema ew 80/1

While Nibali looked good and smart on stage 2, it raised doubts about the strength of his team going uphill

Lucky I think you are going to regret laying Putrito. Far from having tour legs, I think Purito rode the tour as prep for this his main objective. He was miles behind first week of the tour, just got going in the last week. He will be very very hard to beat here and in my mind Nibali is the only rider capable of beating him here.

And on that note, todays stage 3, is where I think Purito will lay down his first marker.
Todays finish is a 4km climb with avg gradient of just 5.2% and on paper this stage looks like it might suit a Gilbert or Meersman or Gerrans. But that doesn't tell the whole story, in the middle of that final ascent, it ramps up to 10% for nearly a km, the road does then flatten out but from the steep section to the flatter section the roads is very narrow. Which means you will need a rider is at or near the front on the very steep bit. Which for me will count out the like of Gilbert etc who will struggle on that section. It could well be like yesterday, that someone will attack from 3 or 4km out but if all are still together when they hit the middle of this climb, then expect only the elite climbers to be left. I'm expecting Rodriguez to attack today when it really  ramps up and I expect him to win today. Will  have a saver on my old friend Mollema as he is another who might be well suited by this climb, and a smaller bet also on Nibali again as he is bound to be in the shake up.

Rodriguez 18/1
Mollema 40/1
Nibali 95.0!