orioles

Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers are struggling to get their bats going, and running into the surging Braves is not going to help Narveson who had a bumpy spring (6.23 ERA). Beachy was just peachy in pre-season (0.90 ERA in 21 innings). Atlanta traditionally do well at Miller Park (winning 8 of the last 11) and I'm happy to bet the losing streak and take the Braves.

Pick: Atlanta Braves @ 1.93

----------------------------------------

2011 Season (Level stakes)

1-5 (-3.95pts)

San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers

Zito is fresh from a car crash, but is evidently ok. Last year, he had a storming start, but tailed off badly, but he has pitched well against the Dodgers without getting much support from his offense. That reflected the first two games of this series where the Giants handed the wins to LA. I don't entirely buy Kuroda; he has had a rough spring, and has struggled against San Francisco at home. The Dodgers' pen has been knocked about too and, coupled with the Giants' bats warming up, makes the dog the bet here.

Pick: Giants @ 2.28

----------------------------------------

2011 Season (Level stakes)

1-4 (-2.95pts)

Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies

Normally, a price of 3+ would be too much to resist, but to be frank, the Astros stink. True, the Phillies have some key injuries and Myers would like to put one over his old team, but Halladay should lock down the Houston offense and Philly will have too much punch.

Pick: Phillies -1.5 @ 1.86


Boston Red Sox @ Texas Rangers

The Bosox roll into Arlington with the tag of 'best team in the majors', but first they'll have to watch Texas raise last year's pennant. Then they'll have to take on a leftie who went 3-0 with an 0.86 ERA against them last year. Lester has also fared well against the Rangers, so this might be tight, but I take Texas to celebrate last year's success with a season opening win.

Pick: Rangers @ 2.05
Pick: Under 8.5 @ 2.05

----------------------------------------

2011 Season (Level stakes)

0-2 (-2pts)

Giants @ Dodgers

If the Giants can get any offense going (they'll lean on Buster Posey and pray that Sandoval re-emerges after discovering the salad bar) they can get it done against a team that Lincecum has owned in the past. At better than Evens, San Francisco are the bet. Zito's car crash may rally them too.

Pick: Giants @ 2.0+

Tigers @ Yankees

I don't take prices under 1.7 on the money line, and I don't see a blow out, so forget the Yankees. I don't see Detroit taking this in New York, so instead I'll look for cold bats, on a miserable day, with two solid pitchers, to take the Totals under.

Pick: Under 8 @ 1.8+

Like during the football season, I'll pick live TV games; but just to start, the madness of picking for six months from now!

MLB 2011 Season Preview

A brief preview in search of a little value ...

AL East

Bosox. There’s a case to be made for the Yankees, and if they trade (and they will) for another arm they’ll be even more dangerous, but I think the Boston off-season moves will win out and take Boston to the AL East; that said, the price is too short.

Pick: No bet.

AL Central

It’s time for the White Sox. They’ve added some power to a tried and tested rotation and a bullpen packing serious heat. The price is a little skinny, so shop around.

Pick: Chicago White Sox 7/4

AL West

A difficult division that’ll see closely matched teams slugging it out, but I like the A’s to emerge. Oakland have great pitching depth, starting and out of the pen, and their anaemic offense has had enough of an upgrade to inspire confidence. I like this bet.

Pick: Oakland A’s 11/4

Cy Young Award
Slimmed down, and in a contract year, in a team that will figure as always. He needs to produce and he will.

Pick: CC Sabathia 5/1

NL East

This is my strongest bet. Everyone is drooling over the Phils’ rotation, and they should, but Utley, Lidge and Brown are really struggling and Polanco is banged up and Werth is gone – that means the fab four may not get the support they need to dominate. The Braves have a lean and hungry look and will push Philadelphia all the way and at 5/1 look great value.

Pick: Atlanta Braves 5/1

NL Central

I like the Reds here, even with their injury problems. Their offense is dominant and they have enough cover to ride out the injuries. Opponents have longer term injury problems and a little glug glug, bang bang to deal with.

Pick: Cincinnati Reds 5/2

NL West

I’m not buying the Giants. They fell into the post-season last year (which admittedly worked out pretty well for them!) and losing Wilson and a rotation that has to rack up the miles is going to run out of road. The Rockies, on the other hand, have the sort of upside that makes them attractive prospects for the division. Jimenez can dominate, even in the clouds (I traded him for garbage last year) and Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez can pack a punch. If Chacin and Jorge DeLa Rosa step up, the Rockies will make a strong run.

Pick: Colorado Rockies 2/1

Cy Young Award
He’s money.

Pick: Roy Halladay 7/2

AL Championship

The top two are choking the value out of this bet, but look out for the Yankees!

Pick: No bet

NL Championship

This is where the Phillies can begin to get some love ... but not at the price.

Pick: No bet.

World Series

I’ve picked two teams that are legit threats to the Boston/Philadelphia axis.

New York Yankees 15/2
They’ll trade up to bolster that rotation and look for monster years from their veterans.

Atlanta Braves 25/1
I really like this team. Uggla is a nice addition and Jones looks as though he’s back. That rotation is deep too. A lovely balance that could make for a very powerful team down the stretch.

Have a great season

Super Bowl XLV

ESPN America Countdown show 7.30pm
Sky Sports 1 coverage starts 10pm
BBC 1 10.55pm
Radio 5 Live Sports Extra 10pm

Game KO 11.30pm

This is a fairly lengthy analysis, so I'll put the short version first! All recommended bets are at the end in bold.

Summary

This is a beautifully poised game, but I'm going to look for Pittsburgh's, SB experience, defense, running game, and Ben Roethlisberger's ability to shed sacks and extend plays to see the Steelers home. Just.

I believe the key here - despite the fact that everyone's licking their lips at the prospect of a dome game and all the aerial power on show - will be Pittsburgh's run game. Teams that out-rush the other are 36-8 in the Super Bowl and 9-1 in the last 10.

So Mendenhall has to get it going against the Packers' 18th ranked run defense; it eats up the clock, keeps Rodgers off the field, and provides the balance that will allow Pittsburgh to set up the pass. However, Mendenhall won't find it easy against a Packers' line that has improved as the season has progressed and only given up 166 yards in the playoffs.

Mendenhall usually runs between the tackles, and with Pouncey out, Legursky will match up on B.J.Raji, who is an outstanding NT. If Legursky can't have some success, the middle will get badly congested, especially as he'll need to help with Cullen Jenkins when Green Bay mix it up. It is a key matchup, so keep an eye on it for betting in-running.

Nonetheless, Mendenhall will see a lot of touches, and if he can get outside and attack Tramon Williams and Sam Shields, he'll be a bigger threat. When the Steelers get close in, they usually give it to Mendenhall. In the playoffs, the Steelers have had first and goal six times, and scored every time: half of those TDs have been Mendenhall's. Also, look for him catching out of the backfield; Mendenhall hasn't had many receptions, but he goes for good yardage when he does and he'll match up on A.J. Hawk who is seen as weak in coverage. Green Bay will be looking to blitz and Mendenhall may need to be an option for a pressured QB.

Starks is the reply on the ground from Green Bay, but he should have no joy against the meanest run D in the NFL. They haven't allowed more than 89 yards on the ground to any team since Week 10. He's had 3 receptions for 15yds in the post-season.

Green Bay will likely spread out the Pittsburgh defense with four and five receiver formations and look to go up against the weaker aspect of the Steeler's D, forcing them into nickel and dime packages. That's not to say they are poor; Ike Taylor is a tough, physical player who will slug it out with Donald Driver all game, and the rest of the secondary is solid, but Bryant McFadden and Troy Polamalu are not fully fit and Jennings will be a dangerous deep threat who will need multiple coverage.

If Rodgers gets into his rhythm, the Steelers will struggle, so they must get to the Packers' QB and move him off his game: not easy with a solid Green Bay O line and a player as elusive as Rodgers. The Bears brought pressure though, and Farrior and Timmons are excellent in coverage, particularly against those slant routes so beloved of Green Bay. Couple that with two dangerously quick safeties and Pittsburgh should make things interesting for Rodgers. Then there's James Harrison who is a monster coming through that line, or off the edge. It will be his job to flush Rodgers out and preferably, floor him: Green Bay's LT Chad Clifton had better be on his game.

The likelihood is though, that Rodgers will hit his receivers fairly regularly, he's just too good (especially indoors) and I like Jennings to have a big game.

The Pittsburgh passing game will be dictated by the success of Mendenhall to a certain extent, but the pressure Green Bay's pass rush brings will be the critical factor. Clay Matthews is in the form of his life and even Roethlisberger is going to be distracted by 6'3" and 255lbs bearing down on him. Ben will look for hot reads and Ward and Sanders underneath as quick outlets. Mike Wallace has been oddly quiet in the playoffs and can't enjoy going from the Jets' corners straight to Williams and Woodson, but Roethlisberger likes him and will definitely take some deep shots and Wallace can get it done, but it'll be tough.

This should be a great game and in truth, is very difficult to call. I wouldn't make the result your main bet, but I believe there's some value amongst the myriad bets available.

Have a great night

Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers +3 (1*)

Pick: 1st TD Greg Jennings 7/1, Rashard Mendenhall 5/1
Pick: Anytime TD Steelers Defense 4/1, Mike Wallace 11/8

Pick: Position Of MVP - Any Defensive Player 6/1 (Betfred)

Spreads (Sporting Index)

Pick: Green Bay TD Yardage Buy @ 56

Pick: "I've got a Feeling..."  Buy @ 24 (0.5pt/tick)
10pts per every UNSUCCESSFUL Coaches Challenge and 25pts for every Coaches challenge that overturns the play.

Pick: "Carry On Emmanuel" Buy @ 14.0 (0.5pt/tick)
Total Number of Yards after catch by Emmanuel Sanders

Pick: "Stark Trading Mad" Sell @ 385 (0.5pt/tick)
Total Number Rushing yards by James Starks MULTIPLIED by number of Receiving yards by James Starks

Pick: "The Crosby Show" Buy @ 12 (0.5pt/tick)
A Special on the performance of Mason Crosby.
10pts per SUCCESSFUL Field Goal over 40 yards,
25pts per SUCCESSFUL Field Goal over 50 yards.
BONUS 50pts if he kicks the game winning Field Goal.

Not a betting game and any trading to be had is complicated by Betfair's scheduled maintenance.

Save your money for next week

Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears
7.30pm Sky Sports/HD2

I like the Pack.

Looking at the notes I've made (I do study to produce this stuff, honest!) the thing that leaps out at me is not necessarily Rodgers/Cutler, it's Rodgers/Forte; or more accurately, can Mike Martz restrain himself and establish the run? It's the Bears' best chance, not just by limiting Cutler's exposure, but also by keeping Rodgers and the Green Bay offense off the field. Green Bay ranks 18th against the run, although that may be misleading now as they have got healthier and tightened up against the ground game recently.

I would back Rodgers every time against a team that runs a Cover 2 scheme (it's too predictable to hold up against a QB as talented as him) and I don't see the Bears moving away from it today, so Charles Tillman and Tim Jennings could be busy. In contrast, I don't trust Cutler to get it done through the air (cue a 400yd day!) against a pass rush as aggressive as Green Bay's. The Chicago tackles are soft and Matthews will come from either edge while Williams and Woodson will make it hotter still. Cutler in a hurry is prone to throwing picks (infuriatingly, particularly in the redzone) and it wouldn't surprise me to see Cutler turn it over. Olsen could have another big day and offers a little value to score.

That's not to say that on the other side of the ball Chicago's excellent front seven are going to spend the afternoon admiring Rodgers and politely applauding; Peppers against Green Bay's LT Chad Clifton might be the decisive matchup of the game and Chicago will have Israel Idonije harrying Rodgers all day. Chicago move Peppers, about and keep an eye out for him matching up on Bryan Bulaga on the left. The Packers will use the pass to set up the run, so keep an eye on in-running spreads dipping too low on Starks, there's often a bit of value with a Buy late on.

Then there's special teams; well, Hester. It's a huge plus for Chicago, not just because he's so dangerous, but because he forces good field position as teams are so reluctant to punt to him - they end up giving away yards on the kick instead. It could be the difference.

Summary
In Rodgers we trust.

Pick: Green Bay -3.5 (2*)

Pick: 1st TD Aaron Rodgers 20/1 (0.5pt), Chester Taylor 18/1 (0.5pt)
Pick: Anytime TD Greg Olsen 6/5 (1pt)
Pick: Touchdown Yardage    Sell @ 95.0 (0.25pts/tick)


NY Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers
11.30pm Sky Sports/HD2

The Jets have gone to New England and rattled the unflappable Brady, after doing the same to Peyton Manning in Indianapolis, and will try to do the same against Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh today. That may be problematic for the Steelers, because their O line is vulnerable (they gave up the eighth most sacks this season)but Ryan has been very canny about his blitzing. He doesn't just throw his pass rush in there; he picks his moment. This was most noticeable last week when you'll have seen Brady checking down, but finding each target covered until time just ran out and he was flushed out of the pocket and sacked - 5 times - and threw a pick for the first time in 355 passes.

The Steelers could try to get Mendenhall rolling, and he has managed it against the Jets, but just quietly, the Jets' defense has become strong against the run and although he'll see the rock (a lot, if the Jets' secondary is tight) he'll be most value to score close in. The prices are a little skinny though.

The difference between Brady/Manning and Roethlisberger, is that big Ben thrives outside the pocket and famously shrugs off tacklers because of his size and mobility and then still makes the play. That's fine against soft coverage downfield, but as I said above, the Jets' secondary has stifled the opposition receivers very successfully and even the blazing speed of Mike Wallace won't terrify Cromartie (who will likely cover him) or Revis, and a scrambling Roethlisberger can turn into a liability as he forces the ball in. He has been flawless of late, but I expect that to end today and a pick wouldn't be a surprise. That may not sound too disastrous, but this game will come down to one or two key moments. As a note, look for Heath miller for the Steelers, as he will be the outlet if the Jets prove as stingy deep and Ben has to dump it off underneath.

The big question for the Jets, is whether Sanchez can get it done against a team that will blitz all day. The Steelers' linebackers will be out for for blood (Ferguson against Harrison will be fascinating) and Hood and Keisel on the ends will bring pressure and then ... there's Polamalu. He missed the first game when the Jets won and Sanchez will have had some restless nights in the run-up to this one.

If the Jets can establish the run (the surest way of combating the blitz) they will take this game, but the steel curtain doesn't look like tearing apart and, although New York had some success on the ground last time out, I don't expect Greene or LT to have monster games, but in a way they don't have to, they just have to keep the Steelers honest.

If the Jets can stand Sanchez up, the Steelers can be beaten in the secondary; Polamalu and McFadden are banged up and Madison will get the gig in the slot, and while he did ok against the Ravens, Holmes is on a mission out wide and Cotchery and Edwards can make plays and, on a big day for TEs, look for Keller to get lots of looks as well.

Summary
This will be tight, so on balance, I'd rather take the points here. There is a strong trend for Unders too (never mind two excellent defenses facing off) and that's a strong bet.

Pick: Jets +4 (2*)
Pick: Under 38.5 (3*)

Pick: 1st TD Heath Miller 16/1 (1pt)
Pick: Anytime TD Santonio Holmes 6/5 (2pt)

Pick: Pittsburgh Win Index Sell @ 36.0 (0.25pt/tick)

This could be 'the weekend of the dog', as these games are destined to be tight. As a fun little appetiser therefore, I'll recommend this to get things underway:

Pick:

Baltimore 6/4
Green Bay Evens
New York Jets 3/1
2pt Trixie

New York Jets @ New England Patriots
Sky Sports 2/HD2

Tonight's marquee game should be a belter and I'm going to stay with the Patriots - even giving so many points.

All this nonsense that the Jets have indulged in may come back to bite them. I'm not a usually a great believer in the whole 'this'll just fire up the opposition' shtick, but in this case, I believe that's what will happen. Brady has a chip on his shoulder as it is, and seems to respond to this sort of thing by stuffing the words right back down the other team's throat. Add that to a coach as talented as Bill Belichick and it's a recipe for disaster.

That's not to say the Jets are without hope in this one because Bill and Tom are feeling grumpy - with a defense as capable as New York's there's always a chance, it's just that Brady and the Pats know the weak spots in the Jets' D. This year Brady has got the Jets for 574yds and 6 TDs.

The Jets can be attacked in the middle, where Revis and Cromartie are otherwise occupied as the Pats move around Welker and Branch, and Brady will look for Rob Gronkowskiand Aaron Hernandez, both of whom I expect to have big games. there's BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead for variety and again, despite New York's impressive defensive stats, they have got it done this season and BenJarvus Green-Ellis has already performed well against the Jets.

On the offensive side, New York has one glaring weakness - Mark Sanchez. He's got the talent, but he's so inconsistent that relying on him in a game as big as this is just too dangerous. Sanchez has thrown 1 TD pass and 6 INTs in his last five games and will need to have all his composure to compete here - but frankly, I don't think he'll pull it off. The New England run defense is sound enough to mean that, likely as not, Sanchez will be working from behind and that won't work.

This will be a manic start and there may be flags (and big hits) flying about, but I'll give the points here and hope Sanchez runs to form.

Pick: New England Patriots -9 (3*)

Pick: 1st TD Wes Welker 9/1
Pick: Anytime TD Rob Gronkowski 13/8


Seattle Seahawks @ Chicago Bears
Sky Sports 2/HD2

Two teams I don't like and don't trust, who have both bent me over this season.

Chicago should win, but those of you who read my stuff regularly will know that I hate giving double digits - and that is particularly true in the post-season.

Seattle have already taken out Chicago at Soldier Field this season, but this is a very different Bears team; Mike Martz has balanced things out on offense and isn't trying to get Cutler killed with 50 step drops, Lance Briggs is back, Forte should make hay and I'm still not buying Marcus Trufant, Kelly Jennings and Walter Thurmond at the corners for Seattle. That said, that Bears OL is still leaking sacks and while Seattle don't have a terrifying pass rush, they bring enough pressure to knock the erratic Cutler off his game. Forte should see the rock a lot, but Martz is Martz.

Set against this, Hasselbeck appears to be possessed by the spirit of a talented QB and Mike Williams OWNED Charles Tillman last time out and, as the biggest CB, he'll have to cover Williams downfield today. The Bears can be beaten deep. Then we come to Lynch - I have no idea where 19 carries for 131 yards and a TD came from. Chicago has played the run well, and they must know that choking that run game is critical, so I expect them to pay special attention to Lynch early on, but that might expose that secondary if Hasselbeck can stay upright.

My feeling is that this will come down less to slick, efficient team play and more to game changing plays by players like Urlacher, Briggs, Peppers, Hester, Lynch, Williams ... Maybe Hester ("Yeah, we'll punt to him" - Carroll, yeah right) takes it all the way?

I'm not confident enough in either of these teams for them to carry my £2 on the point spread, and there's nothing that jumps out at me as value in the various markets. There shouldn't be a truckload of points in this game, as the Bears should commit to the run, eating the clock, and Seattle struggle to move up the field - but again, I would limit stakes.

Pick: Under 43 (1pt)