orioles

Super Bowl XLV

ESPN America Countdown show 7.30pm
Sky Sports 1 coverage starts 10pm
BBC 1 10.55pm
Radio 5 Live Sports Extra 10pm

Game KO 11.30pm

This is a fairly lengthy analysis, so I'll put the short version first! All recommended bets are at the end in bold.

Summary

This is a beautifully poised game, but I'm going to look for Pittsburgh's, SB experience, defense, running game, and Ben Roethlisberger's ability to shed sacks and extend plays to see the Steelers home. Just.

I believe the key here - despite the fact that everyone's licking their lips at the prospect of a dome game and all the aerial power on show - will be Pittsburgh's run game. Teams that out-rush the other are 36-8 in the Super Bowl and 9-1 in the last 10.

So Mendenhall has to get it going against the Packers' 18th ranked run defense; it eats up the clock, keeps Rodgers off the field, and provides the balance that will allow Pittsburgh to set up the pass. However, Mendenhall won't find it easy against a Packers' line that has improved as the season has progressed and only given up 166 yards in the playoffs.

Mendenhall usually runs between the tackles, and with Pouncey out, Legursky will match up on B.J.Raji, who is an outstanding NT. If Legursky can't have some success, the middle will get badly congested, especially as he'll need to help with Cullen Jenkins when Green Bay mix it up. It is a key matchup, so keep an eye on it for betting in-running.

Nonetheless, Mendenhall will see a lot of touches, and if he can get outside and attack Tramon Williams and Sam Shields, he'll be a bigger threat. When the Steelers get close in, they usually give it to Mendenhall. In the playoffs, the Steelers have had first and goal six times, and scored every time: half of those TDs have been Mendenhall's. Also, look for him catching out of the backfield; Mendenhall hasn't had many receptions, but he goes for good yardage when he does and he'll match up on A.J. Hawk who is seen as weak in coverage. Green Bay will be looking to blitz and Mendenhall may need to be an option for a pressured QB.

Starks is the reply on the ground from Green Bay, but he should have no joy against the meanest run D in the NFL. They haven't allowed more than 89 yards on the ground to any team since Week 10. He's had 3 receptions for 15yds in the post-season.

Green Bay will likely spread out the Pittsburgh defense with four and five receiver formations and look to go up against the weaker aspect of the Steeler's D, forcing them into nickel and dime packages. That's not to say they are poor; Ike Taylor is a tough, physical player who will slug it out with Donald Driver all game, and the rest of the secondary is solid, but Bryant McFadden and Troy Polamalu are not fully fit and Jennings will be a dangerous deep threat who will need multiple coverage.

If Rodgers gets into his rhythm, the Steelers will struggle, so they must get to the Packers' QB and move him off his game: not easy with a solid Green Bay O line and a player as elusive as Rodgers. The Bears brought pressure though, and Farrior and Timmons are excellent in coverage, particularly against those slant routes so beloved of Green Bay. Couple that with two dangerously quick safeties and Pittsburgh should make things interesting for Rodgers. Then there's James Harrison who is a monster coming through that line, or off the edge. It will be his job to flush Rodgers out and preferably, floor him: Green Bay's LT Chad Clifton had better be on his game.

The likelihood is though, that Rodgers will hit his receivers fairly regularly, he's just too good (especially indoors) and I like Jennings to have a big game.

The Pittsburgh passing game will be dictated by the success of Mendenhall to a certain extent, but the pressure Green Bay's pass rush brings will be the critical factor. Clay Matthews is in the form of his life and even Roethlisberger is going to be distracted by 6'3" and 255lbs bearing down on him. Ben will look for hot reads and Ward and Sanders underneath as quick outlets. Mike Wallace has been oddly quiet in the playoffs and can't enjoy going from the Jets' corners straight to Williams and Woodson, but Roethlisberger likes him and will definitely take some deep shots and Wallace can get it done, but it'll be tough.

This should be a great game and in truth, is very difficult to call. I wouldn't make the result your main bet, but I believe there's some value amongst the myriad bets available.

Have a great night

Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers +3 (1*)

Pick: 1st TD Greg Jennings 7/1, Rashard Mendenhall 5/1
Pick: Anytime TD Steelers Defense 4/1, Mike Wallace 11/8

Pick: Position Of MVP - Any Defensive Player 6/1 (Betfred)

Spreads (Sporting Index)

Pick: Green Bay TD Yardage Buy @ 56

Pick: "I've got a Feeling..."  Buy @ 24 (0.5pt/tick)
10pts per every UNSUCCESSFUL Coaches Challenge and 25pts for every Coaches challenge that overturns the play.

Pick: "Carry On Emmanuel" Buy @ 14.0 (0.5pt/tick)
Total Number of Yards after catch by Emmanuel Sanders

Pick: "Stark Trading Mad" Sell @ 385 (0.5pt/tick)
Total Number Rushing yards by James Starks MULTIPLIED by number of Receiving yards by James Starks

Pick: "The Crosby Show" Buy @ 12 (0.5pt/tick)
A Special on the performance of Mason Crosby.
10pts per SUCCESSFUL Field Goal over 40 yards,
25pts per SUCCESSFUL Field Goal over 50 yards.
BONUS 50pts if he kicks the game winning Field Goal.