orioles

Getting a snootful of points on a Monday night is always tempting, seriously.

The Cardinals would ordinarily lean on Johnson who has had some massive games, but the Jets are tough on the ground and can be beaten deep. With Regis injured/out/on the wane, I actually think the passing game is the way to go - pity I'm not a head coach.

Fitzpatrick likes to break up the monotony of game time by lobbing the ball to the opposition to see how they get on, or simply dropping the pill, and with Decker out, even more falls on Marshall's shoulders. Putting my HC pinwheel hat on again, they'd be better off pounding the rock with the Cardinals ranking 27th ypg against the run.

But what the hell do I know?

Pick: Cardinals -7 @ 1.91

17-15, +1.4

It's very difficult to beat the Texans through the air, so it may come down to Frank Gore's creaking limbs to find a way on the ground. Osweiler doesn't fill me with confidence, but I like his wideouts and Houston should be a TD better.

Pick: Texans -3 @ 2

It's a tough go for the visitors in a game I can't wait to watch, but if you're giving Atlanta's offense points, I'll take them.

Pick: Falcons +6.5 @ 1.91

If I'm making a case for Washington, I'm put off by the loss of Jordan Reed. If I'm making a case for Philadelphia, I hate the loss of Lane Johnson which exposes Carson Wentz. However, I'll give Halapoulivaati Vaitai a pass and look for the Eagles to give Wentz enough time to exploit a banged up Redskins' defense and then lean on their own stop unit to get it done.

Pick: Eagles -3 @ 2

The bolts are finding new and exciting ways to lose and with their traditional struggles against Divisional opponents and the return of some key players for the Broncos (Siemian needs to keep away from Joey Bosa) this doesn't look a great spot for the home team.

Pick: Broncos -3 @ 1.91

16-13, +2.49

This promises to be about as edifying as last night's presidential debate. Both teams are struggling with form and injuries with Cam Newton, Doug Martin and a variety of pro bowlers and supporting cast on the sidelines.

Winston is a turnover machine, but he's throwing against a young secondary that has seemingly collapsed in a heap since the departure of Josh Norman and given that Martin is out, I can see Winston hurling it downfield all night - he'll throw a couple of picks, but his big receivers should haul in a couple of scores: Mike Evans worth a wager to score.

Derek Anderson has done well against the Bucs and the Panthers are 6-0 (5-1 ATS) in the last six meetings between the two. Tampa Bay are also suspect in the secondary and Anderson has some stalwart targets that he only needs to give a chance and they'll get the job done.

Too many injuries, a careless QB and a Divisional rival to overcome on the road. Give the points but make it a small interest - after all, it's Monday Night Football!

Pick: Panthers -5.5 @ 1.91
Pick: Anytime TD Mike Evans @ 2.2

15-12, +2.29

I'm really looking forward to this one. The Falcons are purring on offense, while the Broncos are only marginally less terrifying than the Vikings on defense - Von Miller in particular is playing out of his mind.

The received wisdom is that you always take the defense where this situation arises (particularly as it's never easy going into Mile High) but Atlanta have such outstanding playmakers in all areas of the offense that I'm taking them to keep it close enough for the points on offer to count. It might also be encouraging that Siemian is banged up: although Paxton Lynch looked solid, the Falcons are a test, even without a pass rush to speak of.

Pick: Falcons +4 @ 1.95 (line/price update)

I'm waiting for a spot where the Vikings are giving too many points, but unfortunately I don't think it's this week.

The Texans have some real talent on offense, but Osweiler is just too inconsistent against the best defense in football. Also, on the defensive side, Houston are still missing J J Watt from a D that has been solid but won't likely dominate the way the home team's stop unit will.

Not last week's cert, but I'll still take the favourite,

Pick: Vikings -6 @ 1.95 (price update)

13-12, +0.39

Both sides are missing critical players as a result of injury; Stanton in for Carson Palmer and perhaps more crucially for our purposes, NaVorro Bowman is out, weakening an already suspect San Francisco LB corps.

It's not worth getting heavily involved, but the Cardinals should be able to dominate on the ground on offense to cover and hold the 49ers running game in check.

Pick: Cardinals -3.5 @ 1.91

Eli Manning has the same problem as Jameis Winston had yesterday - a relentless pass rush coming at him through a weak offensive line. The Vikings aren't great in the secondary, but it's a question of whether Manning can get the ball out.

Sam Bradford has made a good job of it thus far, but Minnesota have very little to offer on the offensive side, which makes me less bullish than I was about the Denver game.

Pick: Vikings -4 @ 1.91

11-12, -1.43