orioles

Matt Ryan and the Falcons' offense are moving the ball nicely and the shine has come off Carson Wentz somewhat (Lane Johnson is a big miss) so while the Atlanta defense is less than stellar, my feeling is that the Eagles just don't have enough on offense to keep the game close enough to cover.

Pick: Falcons +1 @ 2.02

29-22, +6.04

I hate capping the Ravens. Flacco is horrible with occasional flashes of brilliance which makes picking him a heartbreaking exercise. That said, the Browns are dreadful.

Kessler is a work in progress and a half decent run game will struggle against a very tough Ravens run defense - Crowell ripped off one long run in Week 2, but that was it. Flacco will (fill in best guess here) but the underwhelming Baltimore run should get going against a Cleveland defense that couldn't resist a hard running guinea pig.

I hate giving 8 points as it wouldn't surprise me to see the Browns trump the Ravens in their own backyard on national TV (that's genius and, for the record, I backed Trump to win too) but Cleveland have shown almost nothing this season.

Pick: Ravens -8 @ 2

28-22, +5.04

The Seahawks are practically carrying Russell Wilson onto the field, but he's still managing to suit up. Adding to his woes, Seattle's offensive line has been poor and the Bills aren't without destructive defensive players on the line. C J Prosise was the Seahawks top receiverr last time out: he's a back up running back.

The problem for the Bills is that they're also limited on the offensive side, relying heavily on McCoy, but he's carrying a knackered hammy. If Tyrod Taylor has to throw the ball too much, Buffalo are in trouble, as there's no-one to throw to, but stacking the box against them is a bit of a no brainer, so they may struggle to move the ball. They've pulled Percy Harvin out of retirement this week: 'nuff said.

These two teams are badly affected by injuries and I'm sorely tempted to take the points on offer in a situation like this, but this is Seattle and the atmosphere may actually be the difference.

Pick: Seahawks -6 @ 1.91
Pick: Under 43.5 @ 1.91

28-21, +6.04

The Black Hole on prime time with the Raiders rolling behind Derek Carr! A couple of thoughts though, Carr is playing the Broncos' who bring lots of pressure and man coverage - something Carr has struggled with in the past and Oakland just can't stop giving up penalty yards. Latavius Murray will need to put in a shift tonight, but that's not impossible against a Denver D that can be vulnerable to the run.

Trevor Siemian will chuck it about, but he'll have to be wary of Bruce Irvin and Khalil Mack and a developing Raiders' pass rush and again, Denver will need the run game and again, the Raiders can give up yards on the ground.

The line has flip flopped all week, but it's ended up with the Broncos getting a point: I'll take the upset SU.

Pick: Broncos @ 2.05

Joey Bosa. Watch this game just to watch the continued development of the next big game changing defensive weapon in football. The contrast between him and the Titans' patchy pass rush could be critical because, given the time, Rivers can successfully attack the Tennessee secondary. It's worth bearing in mind that San Diego won the stats war against Denver, but Rivers was forced into throwing picks and that was the difference.

The bolts will need to contain DeMarco Murray who is coming in on the back of a series of excellent performances; he's carrying a slight injury, but he'll still represent the Titans' most potent threat. If they can check Murray the home team look value and given the Chargers rank 6th against the run, they're the bet.

Pick: Chargers -4 @ 1.97

Two frustrating teams to cap. Wentz seems to have lost his way and the Eagles have not enjoyed Divisional rivals which doesn't augur well. I'm not convinced by his HC's approach and his already lukewarm receivers were further reduced when Huff displayed a heavy boot on the Walt Whitman then further revealed he was carrying a gun and a little Mary Jane - he's been released.

The Giants' O line is horrible and those problems are exacerbated by Marshall Newhouse's strained calf. The Eagles have a decent pass rush and Eli Manning has looked hurried all year - today won't be easy, particularly with no run game to speak of. Much will hinge on OBJ and which side he got out of bed: it may be significant that he performs much better at home and, while the Philadelphia secondary is sound, he should at least draw enough attention for Manning to spread the love. Note that the Giants are 0-4 last 4 against the Eagles.

This is a tough pick and the game is best avoided from a betting perspective, but coming off a bye week at home, I have to favour the Giants

Pick: Giants -3 @ 2.04

26-20, +5.02

For those of you who have recovered from that extraordinary Game 7 ...

The Bucs secondary has been torched all season and there's no reason Matt Ryan shouldn't have lots of fun with it tonight. On the ground, Freeman can give them enough variety to keep the Tampa defense off balance enough to keep that secondary exposed.

Jameis Winston won't be afraid to throw against Atlanta's defence either, save for the fact he has only one truly elite target in a Mike Evans. Evans will be shadowed by Desmond Trufant who just about held him in check last time: the real problem for the Bucs is that lack of variety in the pass game and the absence of almost all its regular backfield.

I like this bet.

Pick: Falcons -3.5 @ 1.95

25-20, +4.07

Thought I'd pitch in with a couple of thoughts. It's the laughs that keeps you coming back, ain't it? (It certainly can't be the picks!)

Is Corey Kluber really Mickey Lolich? Well, he's been aces in the post season, but he's on short rest again.

I suspect this comes down to the bullpens and I think the Indians have the edge in that respect: they're rested and ready to go, whereas bizarrely Chapman went one and a third in Game 6 with Chicago 5 ahead. I can see Maddon calling guys like Lackey and Lester out of a bullpen that lacks the supreme specialist depth on offer to Francona.

Cleveland look the value at better than Evens. Enjoy :)

Pick: Indians @ 2.05

Two anaemic offenses, but with one particularly scary QB cowering behind a horrifyingly poor O line facing a terrifying front seven there's only one bet.

Give the points and put the winnings into a bomb shelter now that the Donald is a lock for the White House.

Happy Halloween.

Pick: Vikings -4.5 @ 2

25-19, +5.07

I like Dallas here.

The protection afforded Dak Prescott by the Cowboys' excellent O line means that the much vaunted Eagles defense will find it difficult to pressure Prescott sufficiently to stop him going after their weakness at the corners. Dez Bryant returning also helps the Cowboys' pass. The real threat though will be on the ground; with Bennie Logan still out and Ezekiel Elliott leading the league in rushing, he can be the difference.

Carson Wentz has stuttered of late, partly because he is behind a less powerful O line than his fellow rookie QB on the other side. Wentz will also be throwing against a tough secondary - not good on the down swing. The Cowboys aren't half bad against the run, so Wentz may need to force the ball and this is precisely what got him into trouble last time out.

Pick: Cowboys -5 @ 1.94