orioles

San Diego Padres @ Chicago Cubs

Moseley has been pitching nicely, but the Padres' batters have been swinging the lumber like blind drunk clowns. They're hitting .201 against righties away, and to make matters worse, San Diego have failed to score in their last 22 innings versus Chicago. As a great man once said, "Come here, there's more"; they also haven't plated a single run of support for Moseley in his last three games. Horrible.

That's an adjective that might be applied to the Cubs hurler tonight; Garza boasts a 6.27 ERA L3. The Cubs are at least hitting ok - if .251 at home is ok.

It promises to be a chilly, overcast day and I would go Under, but the price is too short, so I'm going to gamble on the hot hand on the mound (and stronger pen) and hope the Padres can cobble together some runs off a struggling Garza.

Pick: Padres @ 2.35

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

15-15 (+0.35 pts)

Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays

Well, if I was ever going to bet a streak, this would be it. The White Sox are finding new and innovative ways to lose games; Danks should know, he had been the victim of two blown leads already this season and has yet to get off the mark. It's no wonder Guillen went bonkers in a post-match interview.

Ordinarily, I'd like Danks in this matchup, but he hasn't got that deep into his last three games and it's likely the bullpen will have work to do in this one, and that spells disaster. The Rays are rolling nicely and can get it done behind Shields who has been solid, if unspectacular.

Pick: Rays @ 1.91

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2011 Season (Level stakes)

13-15 (-0.56 pts)

Milwaukee Brewers @ Philadelphia Phillies

I try to pick every live TV game, so that anyone who reads this drivel can have a little financial interest in the game, but I've got to be honest, this one's tough.

I'd bet the losing streak - but Blanton is awful at the moment, Marcum is aces and the Phillies are slumping at the plate. However,the Brewers aren't hitting either, so I'm not thrilling at the thought of breaking the streak rule. As far as Totals go, anything could happen here, so that avenue is closed.

I try not to force a bet that's not there, so ...

Pick: No bet.

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2011 Season (Level stakes)

13-15 (-0.56 pts)

Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox

The Bosox are beginning to roll, but Daisuke Matsuzaka was truly horrible last time out. Romero has been pitching well, but the Red Sox have traditionally hit him hard.

The wind is out to right and a balmy 47 degrees.

Go Over.

Pick: Over 9.5 @ 2

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2011 Season (Level stakes)

12-15 (-1.56 pts)

Texas Rangers @ New York Yankees

I'm looking forward to this game - Alexi Ogando has been lights out so far, but he's only two games in as a starter and now he's facing the Yankees in a hitter friendly park - not Seattle at home and Detroit at Comerica. Still, sporting a 0.00 ERA, he must be doing something right.

CC Sabathia is up for the pinstripes and he didn't become an All Star throwing pies. That said he hasn't had his usual control this season and I've found that opposing aces early in the season has returned a tidy profit in the past.

Texas can hit, but they've had a tough time against lefties (never mind a lefty of Sabathia's quality) and of course Hamilton is a big miss, but then A Rod may be out for the Yankees (hardly a push, but it'll do) The Rangers also haven't the depth out of the bullpen that the bombers boast. However, the pick here is about the price; you can get 1.62 Sabathia, or 2.55 Ogando.

There's every chance that Ogando's road runs out tonight, but the price demands a Back.

Pick: Rangers @ 2.55

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2011 Season (Level stakes)

12-14 (-0.56 pts)

New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves

I liked the Braves pre-season ... and they're stinking up the place. The Mets are just, well, the Mets.

Lowe has allowed two runs or less in each of his last eight starts. Over those eight starts, he is 6-2 with a 1.28 ERA. The problem is, Atlanta are swinging the lumber this year like they've only recently been introduced to batting; they're hitting just .219 overall and a measly .195 against righties at home.

However, if they're going to find some form at the plate, D.J. Carrasco may be the man to help. He's making only his second start since the beginning of the 2006 season. Carrasco is slated to go no more than 75-80 pitches according to Terry Collins, and that means the bullpen will be called upon pretty early and that's not a good sign, as they boast a 1-3 record with a 4.79 ERA this season.

The Mets are in freefall, and teams on these types of streaks often find a way to lose, even when they're putting themselves in good positions. That has been the story so far, as New York have made a habit of blowing leads (bear this in mind if they go ahead and look for value Laying them in-running).

Atlanta should win, but the price SU for a team hitting like they are is horrible. I can't trust the Mets, so that leaves the runline, or totals. Anything could happen here with totals, so I'll take Lowe to dominate and the Mets' pitching to revive the Braves' bats sufficiently to wring some value from a frankly unattractive betting game.

Pick: Braves -1.5 @ 2.1

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2011 Season (Level stakes)

11-14 (-1.66 pts)

San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks

"The court case [today] showed he didn't do anything wrong, and he's not guilty for lying"
Matt Cain, Giants pitcher and Barry Bonds' teammate

Bleurgh

Well, as I predicted, Phil Hughes (a fantasy stud I was relying on) has hit the DL and coupled with Cain's comments and the Birds blowing a 5 run lead at the Yanks, I'm a morose baseball nut tonight. However, there's a late late game, so let's have a look ...

Cain is pitching well, and was dominant against the D'backs last season, and the Giants won six of nine on the road against Arizona last year. The home team have Hudson on the mound and this may turn into a pitching duel as he has also pitched pretty well this season (with no support) and has similarly prospered against the Giants. This would suggest a low total, and Unders are tempting, but it's a ropey bet in Chase Field.

I'm going to give the edge here to Giants' bullpen; Wilson is back on course and the pen has 1.00/2.86 WHIP/ERA L3, compared to Arizona's 1.80/7.89 and this game may come down to who can close out a tight matchup.

Pick: Giants @ 1.98

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2011 Season (Level stakes)

10-14 (-2.64 pts)

Colorado Rockies @ New York Mets

First, I'd like to thank the Chisox for not only blowing a 4-1 lead in the ninth last night, thus doing my money, but more importantly taking a win and a save away from one of my fantasy teams. There can be no forgiveness.

However, it's a salutary reminder that baseball betting should be highly risk averse, and that looking at the pens is critical. The White Sox keep blowing leads and, with starters nowadays going only 6/7 innings, the opportunities to Lay some big favourites in-running is always there if you spot a suspect, or overworked pen.

Turning to tonight's first game, I'll keep it simple. I've mentioned before that streaks are worth betting and that would make Colorado a strong bet tonight. Add in the fact that the Mets are in the midst of a crisis of sorts and the bet gets stronger still. The fly in the ointment is Dickey; betting knuckleballers is notoriously difficult - if they're on, they're unhittable, if not, they get shelled. He has been struggling with a cracked fingernail (a problem for knuckleballers) so he may be vulnerable.

Reynolds takes the ball for Colorado and while he hasn't been the pitcher he promised to be, and he was slated for the pen before Jimenez went down, he has shown signs of life. I'll take the risk, given the nice price on the surging Rockies.

Pick: Rockies @ 2.2

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2011 Season (Level stakes)

9-14 (-3.84 pts)

Oakland Athletics @ Chicago White Sox

Danks has not exactly lit it up this year, but it's very early days and he has the stuff. Also, Anderson has started strong; he has pitched beautifully, but got no run support and taken a loss and a no-decision so far.

However, it's Oakland's bats (or lack of them - they're hitting .192 against lefties) that decides it for me, and so I'm going to look for Danks to find some form and the Chisox bats to give Anderson more of a workout than the Twins and Mariners managed.


Pick: White Sox @ 1.87 (WH)

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2011 Season (Level stakes)

9-13 (-2.84 pts)

Florida Marlins @ Atlanta Braves

I don't like the way Hanson is shaping up; he may have a lingering back problem, and has started the season 0-2 with a 6.0 ERA. Volstad tends to put lots of people on base and is never far from disaster - he's prone to the occasional bonkers inning.

That said, Atlanta are hitting .225 (.195 H) and if they hit like that tonight, this could be the time to catch their slow starting, cold hitters, so a little interest at the price is too much to resist. I'll also have a saver on Overs with a suspicion that neither of these pitchers is entirely comfortable.

Pick: Marlins @ 2.63
Pick: Over 8 @ 1.83

Cincinnati Reds @ San Diego Padres

A tough call, with neither pitcher really crying out to be backed. However, Richard has struggled against the Reds in the past and the Padres are stumbling along,hitting .202 against righties, while Cincinnati are hitting lefties hard. I'll take the Reds at Evens.

Pick: Reds @ 2

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2011 Season (Level stakes)

8-11 (-2.84 pts)