orioles

New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves

I liked the Braves pre-season ... and they're stinking up the place. The Mets are just, well, the Mets.

Lowe has allowed two runs or less in each of his last eight starts. Over those eight starts, he is 6-2 with a 1.28 ERA. The problem is, Atlanta are swinging the lumber this year like they've only recently been introduced to batting; they're hitting just .219 overall and a measly .195 against righties at home.

However, if they're going to find some form at the plate, D.J. Carrasco may be the man to help. He's making only his second start since the beginning of the 2006 season. Carrasco is slated to go no more than 75-80 pitches according to Terry Collins, and that means the bullpen will be called upon pretty early and that's not a good sign, as they boast a 1-3 record with a 4.79 ERA this season.

The Mets are in freefall, and teams on these types of streaks often find a way to lose, even when they're putting themselves in good positions. That has been the story so far, as New York have made a habit of blowing leads (bear this in mind if they go ahead and look for value Laying them in-running).

Atlanta should win, but the price SU for a team hitting like they are is horrible. I can't trust the Mets, so that leaves the runline, or totals. Anything could happen here with totals, so I'll take Lowe to dominate and the Mets' pitching to revive the Braves' bats sufficiently to wring some value from a frankly unattractive betting game.

Pick: Braves -1.5 @ 2.1

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2011 Season (Level stakes)

11-14 (-1.66 pts)