orioles

Colorado Rockies @ New York Mets

First, I'd like to thank the Chisox for not only blowing a 4-1 lead in the ninth last night, thus doing my money, but more importantly taking a win and a save away from one of my fantasy teams. There can be no forgiveness.

However, it's a salutary reminder that baseball betting should be highly risk averse, and that looking at the pens is critical. The White Sox keep blowing leads and, with starters nowadays going only 6/7 innings, the opportunities to Lay some big favourites in-running is always there if you spot a suspect, or overworked pen.

Turning to tonight's first game, I'll keep it simple. I've mentioned before that streaks are worth betting and that would make Colorado a strong bet tonight. Add in the fact that the Mets are in the midst of a crisis of sorts and the bet gets stronger still. The fly in the ointment is Dickey; betting knuckleballers is notoriously difficult - if they're on, they're unhittable, if not, they get shelled. He has been struggling with a cracked fingernail (a problem for knuckleballers) so he may be vulnerable.

Reynolds takes the ball for Colorado and while he hasn't been the pitcher he promised to be, and he was slated for the pen before Jimenez went down, he has shown signs of life. I'll take the risk, given the nice price on the surging Rockies.

Pick: Rockies @ 2.2

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2011 Season (Level stakes)

9-14 (-3.84 pts)