orioles

Houston Astros @ Atlanta Braves

The Astros are rocking, badly, but I'm not taking the Braves at 1.5+ and with the books clearly expecting a low scoring game, it's worth a look at the pitchers' record in more detail.

Rodriguez struggles away from home (1.44/5.04 WHIP/ERA) and has had a rough time at Turner Field in the past. Lowe is 1.25/4.88 at home and got knocked about in his last start. Atlanta are hitting .258 against lefties L10 and Houston just .247 against righties, so neither team is beating its brains in, but they should have enough.

The weather is a concern, but I'll take on such a low total at Turner Field, as long as there's not a hurricane in from centre.

Pick: Over 7 @ 1.95

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

28-27 (+2.51pts)

Philadelphia Phillies @ St Louis Cardinals

A very tough game and in truth, I'd leave this alone, but I try to pick each live game.

Lee could shut the Cards down (1.35/3.15 WHIP/ERA L3 and 1.20 ERA lifetime against St Louis) and the Phils are reeking at the plate, hitting just .217 against righties L10. I'm not backing the Phils at 1.6+ and I'm wary of laying the runs against a team that hits as well as the Cardinals - top in RBIs, runs, OBP.

However, Westbrook is horrible and if anyone can heat up the Phils' bats, it's him. Howard hits like a beast in his home town (hitting .388, with eight home runs, 31 RBIs and a .520 OBP in 21 games) so if they can get bodies on for him, there's the prospect of runs.

If forced, I'd go Over 7.5; but Busch is a pitcher's park, Lee is aces and the Phils might whiff, so don't sell the kids to smash in.

Pick: Over 7.5 @ 2.1

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

28-26 (+3.51pts)

Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers

The Rangers should take this; Santana was roughed up in his last game, and has been hit hard at Arlington. Wilson also had a rocky last outing, putting too many on and, as I keep repeating, WHIP is a critical stat because you cannot put people on base in the bigs - you'll always end up paying.

I don't like the price for the Rangers (who are carrying too many injuries to justify a back at 1.7+) and looking at Santana's figures at Arlington (he can also give up the long ball, with 6 homers on the season) I'm going to trust that Wilson will also issue a couple of walks and take on the totals.

I'll go Over at better than Evens in the Texas sunshine with the wind out.

Pick: Over 8.5 @ 2.05

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

27-26 (+2.46pts)

St Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds

Cueto is coming back after an injury and struggles with St Louis; oppose him.

Pick: Cardinals @ 2.12

Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves

I don't like Blanton, and I expect Jurrjens to pitch a good game, but I'm not having the Braves at best price 1.62 against the Phillies, even with Blanton on the mound.

Blanton puts too many on, and while I don't expect Jurrjens to get knocked about, the value here is Overs at Evens, because Blanton can implode. Provided nothing dramatic happens to the weather, I'll take it on.

Pick: Over 8 @ 2.00

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

27-25 (+3.46pts)

Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees

Clay Buchholz (the youngest son of the Magnificent Seven star, Horst) has been sharper than Colon of late, and the Red Sox feel like they're gathering momentum and beginning to hit (.283 vs .264 against righties L10) so I like them as a road dog here.

Pick: Red Sox @ 2.00

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

26-25 (+2.46pts)

San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs

A team with a six game winning streak, a pitcher who is 0.95/0.95 WHIP/ERA L3 and has a 1-0 record with a 2.13 ERA against tonight's opposition ... and they're the dog?

Dempster's home ERA is north of 6.00 (and 7.20 on the season) and the Cubs are hitting .176 against the Giants at Wrigley ... and they're the favourite?

You just know this is a no-brainer, 'bet of the week' that's going to turn round and bite me; but I'm not staying away.

Pick: Giants @ 1.97

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

26-24 (+3.46pts)

Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Indians

A difficult one this; two pitchers who have started well, their teams are strong on the road and at home respectively, key hitters are missing from both lineups, and neither pitcher has enjoyed facing today's opposition in the past.

I like to look at the split stats with day games, because starting pitchers tend to be creatures of habit, and having to prepare and pitch hours earlier than usual can show up in different stats lines. In day games, Shields is sub .100 WHIP/ERA, but Masterson is hardly struggling, going 1.29/1.83 - so he's putting slightly more people on than his overall line, but nothing that suggests a strong preference.

I think here I'm going to back the slightly better stats' line and momentum of Shields and the Rays. He has been stronger L3 and after taking last night's game, the Rays will be keen to make a statement in the battle of the surprise starts.

Pick: Rays @ 2

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

25-24 (+2.46pts)

St Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs

St. Louis look like they're getting on track and, their manager's woes notwithstanding, they are looking good. Westbrook has done well against the Cubs and has pitched nicely L3, going 3-0 with a 1.15/2.45 WHIP/ERA. Garza on the other hand, has yet to get off the mark at home and has been roughed up by the Cardinals in the past - albeit in a brief appearance in 2008.

I like St. Louis here.

Pick: Cardinals @ 2.15

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

25-23 (+3.46pts)

Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins

These teams are heading in opposite directions, and I'll bet the respective streaks.

The worry is Baker, who has been excellent of late, but he struggled in his only home start this season (admittedly some time ago) and Detroit hitters have hit him hard in the past. Minnesota are struggling on offense, so Coke can get back on track this afternoon.

Pick: Tigers @ 2.07

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

24-23 (+2.39pts)