orioles

Philadelphia Phillies @ St Louis Cardinals

A very tough game and in truth, I'd leave this alone, but I try to pick each live game.

Lee could shut the Cards down (1.35/3.15 WHIP/ERA L3 and 1.20 ERA lifetime against St Louis) and the Phils are reeking at the plate, hitting just .217 against righties L10. I'm not backing the Phils at 1.6+ and I'm wary of laying the runs against a team that hits as well as the Cardinals - top in RBIs, runs, OBP.

However, Westbrook is horrible and if anyone can heat up the Phils' bats, it's him. Howard hits like a beast in his home town (hitting .388, with eight home runs, 31 RBIs and a .520 OBP in 21 games) so if they can get bodies on for him, there's the prospect of runs.

If forced, I'd go Over 7.5; but Busch is a pitcher's park, Lee is aces and the Phils might whiff, so don't sell the kids to smash in.

Pick: Over 7.5 @ 2.1

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

28-26 (+3.51pts)