orioles

Atlanta Braves @ San Diego Padres

Well, I shot my mouth off a couple of days ago about lefty rookies going through lineups for the first time as a home dog .... and lo and behold, one (sort of) comes along! Although he has started before, this is his first go this season.

So, he's not a completely unknown quantity as far as the opposition is concerned, the Braves have 20 ABs against Cory Luebke, but the line is encouraging at .200/.200/.250 and he owns a 43:15 K:BB ratio in 29 relief appearances.

This move from the bullpen means that he will almost certainly not go deep into the game and that's a worry, because the Padres' pen is not exactly shut down.

Hudson is putting up excellent numbers L3 and was superb in his last start, and I'm tempted by the Unders, particularly with San Diego's weak hitting, but with Atlanta hitting .182 against lefties, I'll put my money where my mouth is and take Luebke to edge a close one.

Pick: Padres @ 2.22

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

55-58 (-1.37pts)

Cincinnati Reds @ Baltimore Orioles

It's almost 30 years to the day that I first turned up at Memorial Stadium and fell in love with the Orioles and the game of baseball.

Matusz has been lit up recently, but may find some comfort in the scuffling Reds' offense - they're hitting .226 in four interleague road games this season - .248 against lefties L10.

Arroyo on the other hand, has strong numbers L3 (0.95/3.27) and is solid enough against the O's lineup (.260/.336./.606) and may put the bite on the Birds.

It's always difficult picking a game with your team playing, but with one team struggling at the plate and the other strong off the mound, I'll go Under, even at Camden Yards. The price from Sky looks value.

Pick: Under 9.5 @ 2.00

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

55-57 (-0.37pts)

Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers

The Halos have the sign over the poor old bust Dodgers, who look like they're going to be tasty Cubans soon, rolled on the thighs of LA divorce lawyers.

Kuroda deserves better, because he has the stuff, but the Dodgers are hitting like they're swinging wet lettuce and he gets no support.

Chatwood is an enigma: he oscillates wildly between good and awful.

These pitcher' profiles are reflected in the money line tonight. That might offer a bit of value though, because Chatwood's splits are healthier on the road and he did ok last time out. I wish he didn't walk so many, but Los Angelitos are the value to continue to dominate the Freeway Series.

Pick: Angels @ 2.2

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

54-57 (-1.57pts)

Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees

Although the Yanks' bats have cooled a little, the Rockies are hitting nicely, and both these pitchers have posted shaky numbers L3. Home plate umpire Ed Rapuano is 10-4 O/U, so HE ain't afraid!

At Yankee Stadium, that's enough to go Over.

Pick: Over 9 @ 1.95

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

53-57 (-2.52pts) 

Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals

Rookie pitchers with good numbers going through lineups for the first time are always interesting bets - particularly if they're lefties. However, I like them as dogs, and this righty is a best price 1.84 favourite on the road, against a Nats team who seem to be rolling.

Marquis' splits at home are solid and I like the way the Nats sound about their form of late. The Mariners are 0-5 all-time in Washington and Marquis has done well against them in the past, and that's enough for me to take the home dog.

Pick: Nats @ 2.08

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

52-57 (-3.60pts) 

Philadelphia Phillies @ St Louis Cardinals

Two pitchers seemingly heading in opposite directions, and the surging pitcher also has the stronger historical record against tonight's opposition.

However, with the weather changeable and two pitchers who have the stuff (and a missing Pujols) I'll favour the Unders at Busch Stadium.

Pick: Under 7.5 @ 1.8

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

51-57 (-4.40pts) 

*You'll note the Padres/Red Sox game was called after 8.5. This makes it void for the purposes of a Totals bet. Usually these bets have to go nine innings, although they can go 8.5 if the home team is ahead.

San Diego Padres @ Boston Red Sox

Lackey's numbers are frankly ugly and had he not received an avalanche of run support, his record would look just as bad - as it is, he's 5-5 on the season. He's .160/.722 WHIP/ERA at home and L3 he's .107/.503.

Richard is hardly lights out and his record of 2-9 doesn't inspire much confidence, and though he's pulled his numbers back a little L3 (.132/.379) it's unlikely that he's about to throw a no-no.

Overs would seem the call, so I'll take a little interest in the totals and split that with a back of the Padres on the run line. This is not a game to get heavily involved in, however.

Pick: Padres +1.5 @ 2.02
Pick: Over 10 @ 2.15

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

50-57 (-5.42pts)

Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox

By the numbers:

Garza 1.62/5.62 WHIP/ERA L3
Buehrle 1.20/3.15

vs. lineup

Garza .292/.407/.409 (1-2 with a 6.87 ERA in four starts against the White Sox)
Buehrle .259/.309/.400 (2-1 with a 2.18 ERA in his last five starts against the Cubs)

White Sox hitting .242 vs. righties L10
Cubs hitting .217 vs. lefties

I'll roll with the numbers ...

Pick: White Sox @ 1.83 (Corals)

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

49-57 (-6.37pts)

New York Yankees @ Cincinnati Reds

The pinstripes look like a value bet with them tearing it up at the plate and Wood stepping in for Cueto. Nova isn't a pitcher to put the mortgage on, with only marginally better numbers L3 than Wood, and both have startling WHIPs (Wood has walked 13 in his last 18 innings) so Overs looks strong too.

This is a momentum bet though, and I'll take the hot hand and what the hell, I'll go Over too - BUT check the weather before betting the totals.

Pick: Yankees @ 1.94
(Pick: Over 9.5 @ 1.95)

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

48-56 (-6.31pts)

New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs

Meh. Nice little streak busted by the Giants' dead offense. Cain deserved better.

Difficult to get a handle on this one, but with the Yankees hitting .317 against righties, I'm going to get greedy against a shaky starter like Wells. Bombers don't want to fall too far back, even at this stage, and they can get after the Cubs tonight.

In each of Sabathia’s last three road appearances, he’s lasted eight or more innings and allowed one earned run or fewer. Nice.

Pick: Yankees -1.5 @ 2.1

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

47-56 (-7.41pts)