orioles

Cleveland Indians @ Boston Red Sox

This is one of the games I wouldn't touch if I wasn't picking all (well, most of!) the live games.

Boston are beating the hell out of the ball (.319 vs righties L10) whereas the tribe can't get it beyond the infield (.175 L10).

Lackey is finding some form in the second half, and Tomlin has done OK of late, going 4-1 with a 3.81 ERA over his last eight starts, and was strong last time out against the halos. He has a 1.05 WHIP L3.

Cleveland aren't likely to give Lackey a torrid time, and Tomlin has had a solid outing against the Bosox this season already: this lineup is hitting just .146 against him.

With the line at 10, I'll go Under and hope Tomlin can keep the ball down (it's a particular weakness) and inside Fenway.

Pick: Under 10 @ 2.00

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

81-76 (+7.41pts)

Chicago Cubs @ St Louis Cardinals

The Cubs are awful. St Louis aren't, but the price for them to win is too skinny.

The totals bet is Over, but I hate Overs. Still, both of these pitchers struggle against tonight's opposition and have ERAs north of 6.00 at home and on the road respectively.

The Cards are hitting .309 against righties L10 and tonight's ump is vaguely encouraging.

Pick: Over 8 @ 1.91

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

80-76 (+6.50pts)

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies

McDonald (7-4, 3.95 ERA), has been money recently. He's 4-0 with a 2.54 ERA in his last eight starts - but this is a guy who won just four all last year. I get nervous about pitchers performing a long way to the 'left' of their stats' curve and he stank the last time he faced the Phillies - but the price on offer tonight looks big.

Cliff Lee is one of the big beasts of the formidable Philadelphia rotation who has hit a bump in the road. After a stellar June, he is 0-2 with a 4.97 ERA in four starts this month, giving up at least five runs and 10 hits twice, including against the soft hitting Padres last time out.

Pence hitting from the right side coming over could be big for the Phillies; with balance, and protection for Howard, the lineup looks much more solid and could find a consistency that makes them a much more potent offense. Ironically, Philadelphia has found some form at the plate so far in this series.

However, he has to plug in straight away and I can't turn down 3.3 on someone as hot as McDonald. In an effort to make a complete fool of myself, I'll also steer away from my usual bet here and go Over.

Pick: Pirates @ 3.3
Pick: Over 7.5 @ 2.05

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

79-75 (+6.45pts)

San Francisco Giants @ Philadelphia Phillies

Carlos Beltran has ridden into town to hitch his burro to the Giants' offensive wagon and, although that will lend them undoubted impetus, and even with Lincecum on the mound, 1.87 looks a little skinny for my taste.

Kendrick has the stuff, he's 2-0 with a 3.21 ERA as a starter, and with Lincecum coming off a sickness (he was doubtful until quite late) I'm tempted by the Phillies as a home dog.

Goodwood has been generous, so I'll get a bit reckless after being robbed in the Red Sox game and go under too in what I hope will be a close game.

Pick: Phillies @ 2.1
Pick: Under 7.5 @ 1.95

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

78-74 (+6.50pts)

THAT'S why I hate Overs' bets! Six in the book after 3 and a half innings ... and one more run the whole rest of the game.

Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox

DON'T lay the runs if you can possibly help it, and NEVER lay the runs at home - there's no clearer rule in betting baseball.

Beckett is lights out; in eight career starts against Kansas City, the right-hander is 6-0 with a 2.26 ERA - his lowest versus any AL opponent. Luke Hochevar is not and the Red Sox usually beat the daylights out of him (1-3 with a 7.94 ERA in four career starts against them) which is unfortunate as they are tearing it up at the plate, hitting over .300 L10.

So, with the opening rule in mind (there's no value in the bet anyway at best price 1.7) I'll reluctantly go Over.

Pick: Over 9 @ 1.91

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

78-73 (+7.50pts)

San Francisco Giants @ Philadelphia Phillies

After a couple of heartbreaking losses (!) I'll fall back on my old favourite: two aces on the mound and Unders.

Lincecum can't go (or maybe he's going too much) but Cain is on his usual rest. Both these pitchers have been strong all season and L3 (although strangely, they both have poor numbers against tonight's opposition) but, given that the park and the ump aren't playing against, I'll take my usual route.

I have a feeling Hamels may shut down the Giants tonight. The Phils have a little pop at the moment, so I'll also take an interest in the run line.

Pick: Under 7 @ 1.91
Pick: Phillies -1.5 @ 2.4

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

77-72 (+7.59pts)

Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox

The Tigers are hitting .302 against Danks, who has been excellent since his return, and has allowed just three runs over his past five starts: he is 3-5 against Detroit.

Scherzer was blazing in his last start, but is prone to the occasional meltdown. On the other hand, the Chisox are hitting just .222 against him and he has the stuff that has chalked up 11 wins this season.

Detroit needs to lock down the AL Central and is playing with the eye of the (I can't even finish that) and I like them to take this from the White Sox who are reaching a critical moment, four and a half games back.

Pick: Tigers @ 2.00

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

77-71 (+8.59pts)

Los Angeles Angels @ Cleveland Indians

Weaver forces the Totals down here and ordinarily, with a pitcher like him on the mound, I'd go Under. However, I don't buy Tomlin at all and with him pitching, 7 looks a little low at Progressive Field and Evens to go Over may be the value.

Both teams are doing poorly at the plate, so a couple of big innings early are the hope.

Pick: Over 7 @ 2.00

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves

Sometimes a price demands a Back in baseball. Pittsburgh are scrapping it out at the head of things and McDonald has been strong recently. This is a massive series in the NL and 2.8 is just too big to resist.

However, set against that are McDonald's shakier numbers on the road, Atlanta's dominance of the Bucs at Turner Field and Hudson's form.

It's a real punt, so I'll keep this as a small bet, but the price for the Braves is no value and the Totals are equally unappealing.

Pick: Pirates @ 2.8

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

76-70 (+7.79pts)

New York Mets @ Florida Marlins

These two pitchers have given up runs L3 (although they both had a solid outings last time out) and while both teams aren't beating the cover off the baseball, if the weather is ok at first pitch, I'm going to take the Overs.

The Mets lineup is hitting .285 against Sanchez, with an OBP of .393. Gee is prone to inconsistency and get can roughed up on the road.

Pick: Over 8.5 @ 2

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

75-70 (+6.79pts)