orioles

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies

McDonald (7-4, 3.95 ERA), has been money recently. He's 4-0 with a 2.54 ERA in his last eight starts - but this is a guy who won just four all last year. I get nervous about pitchers performing a long way to the 'left' of their stats' curve and he stank the last time he faced the Phillies - but the price on offer tonight looks big.

Cliff Lee is one of the big beasts of the formidable Philadelphia rotation who has hit a bump in the road. After a stellar June, he is 0-2 with a 4.97 ERA in four starts this month, giving up at least five runs and 10 hits twice, including against the soft hitting Padres last time out.

Pence hitting from the right side coming over could be big for the Phillies; with balance, and protection for Howard, the lineup looks much more solid and could find a consistency that makes them a much more potent offense. Ironically, Philadelphia has found some form at the plate so far in this series.

However, he has to plug in straight away and I can't turn down 3.3 on someone as hot as McDonald. In an effort to make a complete fool of myself, I'll also steer away from my usual bet here and go Over.

Pick: Pirates @ 3.3
Pick: Over 7.5 @ 2.05

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

79-75 (+6.45pts)