Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox
DON'T lay the runs if you can possibly help it, and NEVER lay the runs at home - there's no clearer rule in betting baseball.
Beckett is lights out; in eight career starts against Kansas City, the right-hander is 6-0 with a 2.26 ERA - his lowest versus any AL opponent. Luke Hochevar is not and the Red Sox usually beat the daylights out of him (1-3 with a 7.94 ERA in four career starts against them) which is unfortunate as they are tearing it up at the plate, hitting over .300 L10.
So, with the opening rule in mind (there's no value in the bet anyway at best price 1.7) I'll reluctantly go Over.
Pick: Over 9 @ 1.91
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2011 Season (Level Stakes)
78-73 (+7.50pts)