orioles

Starting Pitchers
St. Louis: Carpenter (14-9, 3.46 ERA)
Texas: Wilson (16-10, 3.31 ERA)

Holland was aces last night, but I’m not jumping ship.

Wilson hasn't won in the post-season since beating Tampa Bay in Game 2 of last year's division series. He's 0-5 with a 6.18 ERA in seven play-off starts since, including 0-3 with a 7.17 ERA in four this year.

Carpenter thrives in the post-season, going 8-2 with a 3.10 ERA in 13 career outings. The Cardinals have won all four of the right-hander's starts in the 2011 play-offs, and he's posted a 2.25 ERA.
espn.com

Carp sets it up for the win back at Busch? I’ll take the price.

Pick: Cardinals @ 2.14; 113; 57/50

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

127-117 (+29.68pts)

Starting Pitchers
St. Louis: Jackson (12-9, 3.79 ERA)
Texas: Holland (16-5, 3.95 ERA)

This is as much about momentum as the match-ups. The Cardinals look like they have the whiff of World Champions in their nostrils.

Jackson is solid enough (although the post-season hasn’t been pretty) but Holland sure as hell isn’t a 1.59 back.

After last night’s insanity, I’ll keep it simple.

Pick: Cardinals @ 2.60; 160; 8/5

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

126-117 (+30.68pts)

Indianapolis (0-6) at New Orleans (4-2)
Ch4, Monday October 24th, 1.30am

Another blow-out ATS bear trap.

To beat the spread, you need a team that’ll beat its brains in to stay two TDs ahead, when they’re in control – the surest way to lose money.

Still, how can the lost boys of Indianapolis possibly stay with the Saints? The consensus seems to be attacking them on the ground, but the Saints have been solid against the run recently, and it’s not as if the Colts’ O line is creating great lanes.  As it is, although Addai looks as though he may suit up, he’s carrying a limiting injury.

Painter has been ok, and I don’t mean that as a put down, he’s a distance ahead of Kerry Collins, but he’ll need to deal with a Saints’ defense that, although it doesn’t rush the passer particularly well, will bring lots of pressure.

Drew Brees should have his way with the Colts deep; he has lots of weapons, particularly with Colston getting fit and Indianapolis is suffering badly with injuries in the secondary.

Giving all these points is killing me, so yet again, keep stakes low, but given the Bucs’ loss, New Orleans has a chance to make important strides in the NFC South and they should blow the doors off Indy here.

Pick: Saints -13.5 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11

Pick: 1st TD Marcus Colston @ 11; 1000; 10/1
Pick: Anytime TD Marcus Colston @ 2.2; 120; 6/5

Green Bay (6-0) at Minnesota (1-5)
Sky Sports 2, Sunday October 23rd, 9pm

A game where I’d love to oppose overwhelming public opinion, because there’s usually good value floating about with a game as one-sided as this; not this time, though.

I actually like Ponder; he’s mobile and has a strong arm, but to make your debut against a Dom Capers defense, behind an offensive line like Minnesota’s? Ouch. Peterson has to get going if Minnesota are to stand any chance of keeping it close, but Green Bay will stack the box to try and stifle him, and then force Ponder to beat them with his arm, then the various blitzes will appear and well, it could get ugly, particularly if they get behind early.

On the other side of the ball, the Vikings pass rush, which had performed admirably until last week’s complete brain freeze, needs to get going, because the secondary was of questionable quality to start with, and is now missing key corners; Antoine Winfield is injured and Chris Cook is suspended.

The Vikings will come after Rodgers and can challenge him, but he’s no callow rookie and can operate under pressure, so I don’t see him buckling. As usual, Rodgers will spread the love, but Jennings has murdered the Vikes in the past, and I take him to score today - first would be nice!

I’d always be wary of laying this many points, but not here.

Pick: Packers -9.5 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11

Pick: 1st TD Greg Jennings @ 8.5; 750; 15/2
Pick: Anytime TD James Jones @ 3.0; 200; 2/1
Jordy Nelson @ 2.25; 125; 5/4
Pick: TD Supremacy: Green Bay/Minnesota Buy @ 1.8 - 0.5pt/tick

Chicago (3-3) vs. Tampa Bay (4-2)
Sky Sports 2, Sunday October 23rd, 6pm

There’s always one team in a season that seems to beat my brains in, and this year it’s the Bears.

This is a tough game to pick, as Chicago suddenly decided to protect Cutler and he showed he can get it done. The Vikes’ pass rush, which has been so good this year, was blunted and the rest is expensive history.

The Bears used Matt Spaeth (usually a TE) as an extra OT and Cutler had the time he needed; this all needs to be qualified by the fact that Minnesota were awful and didn’t attack Cutler with anything like the dynamism they have on the defensive line. The Bucs’ can bring pressure, but they tend to have problems getting home - if they do though, they can win this game, because Chicago doesn’t have much downfield, so expect Tampa to bring everything.

Matt Fort continues to produce, both on the ground and catching out of the backfield. The Tampa front seven is quick and aggressive and Forte will have to work hard on the ground. If Gerald McCoy is back, it’ll firm up the Bucs even further, although reports are that he’s only done light work this week and is a game time decision.

Josh Freeman has been dangerously inconsistent this season; only to turn in a 23/41/303 yards and 2 TD performance last week against the Saints. There are similarities between the two passing offenses on show, with Mike Williams, Arrelious Benn, Kellen Winslow and their buddies not getting it done deep, like the Chicago receivers.

Earnest Graham picked up the run game nicely when LeGarrette Blount went down, but he’s facing a run D that again, turned itself around last week. The Bears were struggling against the run, despite their personnel, and then they promptly limited AP to 39 yards.

These are two teams who appear to have shifted gears in the last week and deciding who has genuinely brought a different team, with momentum, to London is very difficult, and for that reason I wouldn’t recommend getting heavily involved here.

One factor that might play here is that Tampa Bay arrived early in the UK to prepare, whereas the Bears arrived on Friday. This last-minute approach has back-fired before and that may give the Bucs’ a crucial edge.

As you can probably tell, I’m in the dark here, but on balance, I’ll take the points.

Pick: Bucs +2 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11

Pick: 1st TD Mike Williams @ 13.00; 1200; 12/1
Pick: Anytime TD Devin Hester @ 2.88; 187; 15/8

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ATS 17-8 (68%)

Starting Pitchers
St. Louis: Lohse (14-8, 3.39 ERA)
Texas: Harrison (14-9, 3.39 ERA)

Texas should take this; the Cards have never seen leftie Harrison and if you’ve read any of my drivel before, you’ll know I like unknown fireball lefties (although I prefer rookies) going up against a lineup for the first time. Despite the fact he’ll have had every tiny detail scouted, he’s only ever faced three of tonight’s redbirds.

Harrison is solid enough at home (8-5 .134/3.87) and is 1-0 with a 4.22 ERA in three postseason appearances, so there’s nothing terrifying in his splits – but I can’t take him at the price. There’s no way I can back any baseball team at 1.56.

Lohse has had a rocky postseason, going 0-2 with a 7.45 ERA, and he hasn’t got a great record against the Rangers; he’s 3-3 with a 6.66 ERA in 12 career appearances.

Despite the return to a balmy Arlington, I’m not going to take on a high line. That might suggest an Unders bet, but I have a feeling that batters will have settled in a little now and there’ll be less hacking away at the plate, so I couldn’t call it with any confidence.

I would recommend no bet on this game, however, it’s the World Series, and a little interest is mandatory.

Lohse (occasionally prone to the long ball anyway) has allowed a homer about every three innings he has pitched in Texas and although Michael Young hits Lohse at a pretty uninspiring .233 clip; of the seven hits he’s had off him, Young has gone yard three times.

Long shots in every sense, these picks should not be a means of paying off your mortgage; but they may add a little something to the viewing experience.

Pick: Michael Young to homer @ 13.0; 1200; 12/1
Pick: 1st Team to homer, Texas @ 2.1; 110; 11/10

*I’m not a great fan of trends, but bear this in mind where the series is concerned: of the last 18 World Series to open with a two-game split dating to 1969, the winner of Game 3 went on to win 16 of them.

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

125-116 (+17.75pts)

Starting Pitchers
Texas: Lewis (14-10, 4.40 ERA)
St. Louis: Garcia (13-7, 3.56 ERA)

Lewis is 1-1 with a 3.86 ERA in two post-season starts: Garcia is 9-5 with a 2.60 ERA at home.

Go figure.

I've consistently supported Garcia this post-season, and he has consistently let me down, going 0-2 with a 5.74 ERA in three post-season starts. Whether that makes Lewis/Texas a 1.87 back though, is problematic.

Garcia can't seem to get deep into games, and I've no doubt he'll be on a short leash again tonight and as entertaining as it is to see La Russa match-up his pen (with a great deal of success) there'll come a point when it's just too much work, or the luck runs out.

However, let's hope it's not tonight, because I'm going to take Garcia at home at the price, where in his two starts this post-season, he has allowed four runs in 11 2/3 innings; he just seems happier on the hill at Busch Stadium.

It looks like similar weather conditions tonight and so the ball shouldn't carry again. It's also interesting to note that the home plate umpire, Greg Gibson, has a 9/21 O/U line.

I'm not wildly keen on this game to be honest, so I'd keep stakes low.

Pick: Cardinals @ 2.07; 107; 107/100
Pick: Under 8 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11

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126-115 (+19.68pts)

Starting Pitchers
Wilson (16-9, 3.28 ERA)
St. Louis: Carpenter (13-9, 3.47 ERA)

Here we go! A great part of the year – the World Series, the NFL well underway ... hell, there’s even cricket from India (although I’m a staunch Test cricket man).

Starting pitching has been ropey in the post-season (the Cardinals’ rotation has a post-season earned run average of 5.43, the Rangers’ 5.62) and Wilson is typical of the struggles of usually tough pitchers:

Texas is 2-6 in its last eight road games with C.J. Wilson on the hill; he’s winless in his last six (0-4 in that stretch) and has posted 1.85/8.04 WHIP/ERA L3.

These teams are hitting the ball a ton and both lineups are deep, so you’d better be on your game, because as we’ve seen, it can get ugly, quickly.

Carpenter has been rather stronger, going 1.18/3.71 L3, but I’m very nervous of the reports that he has a sore elbow. These guys play through these sorts of things all season, but a pitcher’s mechanics are so finely tuned, that even the slightest variation can badly affect performance.

The Rangers have been murdering the fastball, but this year Carp has thrown his fastball less often, and if he can get his curveball and slider going tonight, he can cool off some of the Texas’ bats.

Speaking of cool; it looks like it’ll be a cold and windy night. Temperatures are expected to be in the low 30s with winds gusting to 29 mph, blowing out to right field. That should help the pitchers keep it in the park.

I recommended the 8/1 on offer on the Rangers as we went into the post-season, as it looked like great value, and I’m not going to back off them now for the series (although I’ve layed a little back) but I think Carpenter gets the Cards home tonight. I like the Unders too with two pitchers who undoubtedly have the stuff.

Pick: Cardinals @ 1.84; -119; 21/25
Pick: Under 7.5 @ 2.00; 100; Evens

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

124-115 (+17.84pts)

Miami (0-4) at NY Jets (2-3)
ESPN, Tuesday October 18th, 1am

Picking games with ‘broken’ teams is nigh on impossible – witness last night’s hilarious Vikes/Bears game. If they were functioning, and vaguely capable of analysis, it gives the gambler a fighting chance – so this is another game I’d avoid.

However, I go where other cappers fear to tread ... and usually lose my shirt!

The Jets’ offensive coach is public enemy number one in New York, and just to really make things cosy, veteran wide receivers are criticising the O line for not giving Sanchez the chance to get the ball deep. Derrick Mason was promptly offloaded to Houston, but Santonio Holmes has picked up the theme, and the linemen have shot back. Not good.

Sanchez has been horribly inconsistent, but the fins have not put any pressure on opposing QBs this season, so he should get some time. The Jets haven’t really got the run game going either (this is part of the offensive confusion being laid at Brian Schottenheimer’s door) and Miami have surprisingly good numbers against the run, so I expect the Jets to take some looks deep if Sanchez can get the ball out, but they’ll need to get something going on the ground.

The problem is, Holmes has a point; the Jets’ O line does stink and to add to the Jets’ receiver problems, talented CB Vontae Davis is back for Miami. However, the Dolphins have given up big numbers against the pass.

Matt Moore. He also has a leaky line protecting him (the Dolphins have allowed 14 sacks and rank 28th in sacks per pass play) against a capable pass rush and he’s throwing it to a corps that isn’t familiar with him and includes his best receiver who has vowed to get ejected from the game in the 2nd quarter. What the hell!? As it is, Brandon Marshall will probably be stranded on Revis Island.

If Miami could get the run going, they’d have probably the most clear cut offensive threat in the game, because the Jets have been poor against the run. Unfortunately, Daniel Thomas is badly banged up and is questionable tonight, which suggests that even if he goes, he’ll be limited.

I hate giving the points on MNF and if Miami cover, I wouldn’t be at all surprised (the Vegas sharps are coming for the Dolphins, despite Joe Public smashing into the Jets) but I think the defensive edge should see New York home.

Pick: Jets -7 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11

Pick: 1st TD Santonio Holmes @ 9.00; 800; 8/1
Pick: Anytime TD Dustin Keller @ 2.62; 162; 13/8

Minnesota (1-4) at Chicago (2-3)
Ch4, Monday October 17th, 1.20am

I wouldn’t bet this game for all the foot longs in Chicago. (Actually, all three games tonight have been difficult ... honest!)

Two horribly misfiring offenses; save for two outstanding backs. Cutler is just getting battered behind that O line (and the Vikings have a terrific pass rush) and McNabb couldn’t play QB in a peewee flag football league.

This will effectively be Forte vs Peterson, and given that the Vikes stuff the run and the Bears couldn’t stuff a chicken; it’s the Vikes, I suppose.

I tell you what – take the points, go to bed with a mug of cocoa, and watch the baseball.

Pick: Vikings +2.5 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11

Pick: 1st TD Adrian Peterson @ 5.00; 400; 4/1