orioles

Kansas City (4-5) at New England (6-3)
ESPN, Tuesday 22nd November, 1.30am

Horrible. Cassel is gone and to say Tyler Palko has a limited skill set is decidedly generous. To make matters worse for him, he's a left hander, meaning that the less than dazzling Barry Richardson will be protecting his blindside. New England haven't much of a pass rush, but they do have 20 on the season and got to Sanchez five times last week against the Jets.

Palko's lack of arm strength and poor skill set means that even with a Patriots' secondary that is so thin as to be almost non-existent (their only remaining starting corner, Devin McCourty, is out) the Chiefs will still find it difficult to move the ball through the air. This, in turn, impacts the ground game, because the lack of an aerial threat means New England can load up to stop Jackie Battle on the ground. Which just adds to the pressure on Palko, who will have no option but to put the ball up - particularly as Kansas are likely to be behind from the off.

Tom Brady should be able to beat a defense who have the lowest number of sacks in the NFL (there's only really Tamba Hali to worry about) because although CBs Brandon Flowers and Brandon Carr have talent, Brady will have time to pick his targets and the secondary is weak over the middle; the New England tight ends will get a lot of looks and Rob Gronkowski will score. On the ground, 'the law firm' should see time at the end and score, but is too short in the market to be of real interest.

Is it wise to give 16.5 points on MNF? No, absolutely not. So while I think New England will cover, I would advise against smashing in giving better than two TDs. This is a game best watched, with a couple of side bets to spice things up.

Pick: Patriots -16.5 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11

Pick: 1st TD Rob Gronkowski @ 8.00; 700; 7/1
1st TD Deion Branch @ 13; 1200; 12/1

Pick: Anytime TD Chad Ochocinco @ 4.0; 300; 3/1

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NFL Record 2011
Remember, the bet against the spread is the main bet.

ATS
25-17 (59%)

First TD           
-11pts

Anytime TD
-19pts

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MLB Record 2011

128-120 (+27.55pts)

Philadelphia (3-6) at NY Giants (6-3)
Ch4, Monday November 21st, 1.15am

Vick is out, and the Eagles are nearly done. Eli Manning is beginning to look like a top QB and the Giants look like they may contend and putting away a divisional rival at home will improve that case no end. Philadelphia specialise in the 4th quarter collapse, whereas Manning has become a final quarter hero.

So I’m taking the Eagles.

Vick has driven me bananas all year, and I’m not going to pretend that Young is an upgrade, but I have a feeling his team will rally to the flag in what is essentially their season deciding game. The Giants have 30 sacks on the season, but Young is mobile and if he can mix it up with LeSean McCoy, who can exploit New York’s 20th ranked run D, he has some dangerous offensive weapons downfield.

The return of DeSean Jackson means the Eagles can both stretch the field, bring other receivers into play and look for the long ball with Young’s arm. For some reason, the Eagles seem entranced by the big play; well Young can get it there, but Jackson has to make the grab. There’s no doubt the Giants’ secondary is patchy, so it can be attacked, particularly their safeties, although Maclin is a big miss.

Philly must stop the run; they must plug the gaps in their defense. Brandon Jacobs will carry the ball for the Giants, but there have been signs in the last four games that that aspect of the Eagles defense is coming together.

Manning is having a career season, but I’ve never really trusted him; if the Eagles could just put all their talent on the defensive side of the ball in the right places, they’d be a much more dangerous unit, but as it is they have 26 sacks this season and can bring pressure against a shaky, nicked up Giants offensive line – Eli is prone to throw picks with the hammer down.

This is an even riskier pick than usual, as much of it is based on how I think Philadelphia will react in this situation – if they have any other mind set, they could get their doors blown off and make me look a right Charlie, but I’ll take the points.

Pick: Eagles+6.5 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11

Pick: 1st TD Brent Celek @ 15.0; 1400; 14/1
Mario Manningham @ 13.0; 1200; 12/1

Pick: Anytime TD Brent Celek @ 2.8; 180; 9/4

Tennessee (5-4) at Atlanta (5-4)
Sky Sports, Saturday November 20th, 9.15pm

One day, I want to decide to go for it on fourth and inches on my own one yard line ... and if I get the new Madden from Father Christmas, I will. However, it would be best if Mike Smith avoids that temptation tonight – it’s not as if I liked the prat when he was on Radio 1. (I’ll need to edit that for my other blog).

The Titans rank 22nd against the run and Michael Turner ranks 6th in yards gained on the season – it’s not a difficult gameplan to put together. Turner has to get going, because Ryan is going to be missing one of his most dangerous downfield threats, and if the Falcons don’t move it on the ground, things could get tricky. Barrett Ruud is back for the Titans, which is encouraging, although he’s carrying an injury and is still questionable.

Matt Ryan still has weapons out wide, (though they’re nicked up a bit) and they match up well physically on the Titans’ secondary who although they are capable (Cortland Finnegan shut down Steve Smith last week) lack size. The Titans gave Cam Newton a rough ride in that game and that’s another reason why Turner, and to a lesser extent Jason Snelling and Jacquizz Rodgers, need to find room, because Ryan reacts poorly to pressure and when he is forced to throw a lot (for example if the Falcons get behind) Atlanta lose.

Tony Gonzalez will likely figure prominently again and he continues to get looks in the redzone and score regularly – he’s more than just an outlet for Ryan, and can exploit Tennessee’s sometimes patchy zone defense over the middle, especially if the Titans have to commit players to defending the run, so I’ll take an interest in Tony G in the TD market.

Atlanta are very tough against the run and it’s very difficult to accurately gauge whether Chris Johnson’s showing last week really did signal a return to form. The likelihood is that Hasselbeck will air it out against a weak Falcons secondary (rank 23rd) and Nate Washington and Damian Williams could prosper – which gives you some indication of Atlanta’s poor pass D. John Abraham represents the pass rush, on his own; it’s no accident that the Falcons rarely sack anyone and that would suggest Hasselbeck should have time to pick his targets. Don’t underestimate the loss of Kenny Britt though – like I said, it’s Nate Washington and Damian Williams out wide now.

Both QBs will feel they can attack the other team deep, but I’m going to hope that Atlanta’s obvious advantage with Michael Turner holds up and they establish the run, then pick apart the Titans’ pass defense. There could be points in the dome.

Pick: Falcons-6.5 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11
Pick: Over 43.5 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11

Pick: 1st TD Michael Turner @ 5.0; 400; 4/1
Chris Johnson @ 7.0; 600; 6/1

Pick: Anytime TD Tony Gonzalez @ 1.91; -110; 10/11

Cincinnati (6-3) at Baltimore (6-3)
Sky Sports, Sunday November 20th, 6pm

Flacco, the bettor’s nightmare; back him and he’ll look like he’s only just discovered football (like last week against Seattle) then oppose him and he’ll drive 90 yards in the last minute to win the game to beat the Steelers.

Assessing a QB in capping a football game can’t be overestimated, he’s the beating heart of a team, and everything goes through him, but with some triggermen it’s really a question of looking at how well a team can perform in spite of him (see Grossman, Rex) and survive his mistakes (see Beck, John).

In this game it’s particularly difficult, because Flacco has traditionally struggled going up against Mike Zimmer and the Bengals – two TDs, nine interceptions, eleven sacks and a 48.2 passer rating in his past four games against them do not inspire confidence. The Cincinnati defense though, have lost CB Leon Hall, who has been outstanding this year, and are carrying some injuries on the line, most notably to DE Carlos Dunlap and a still limping Rey Maualuga.

As a result, Flacco should be able to test the Bengals deep and get after players like Nate Clements, Kelly Jennings, Brandon Ghee and the injured Pacman Jones; look for some deep passes early to Torrey Smith to test the Cincy safeties Chris Crocker and Reggie Nelson who won’t be able to match Smith’s vertical speed. Anquan Boldin should find plenty of passes coming his way as one of Flacco’s favourite targets, and I expect him to do rather better than last week’s two grabs.

Cam Cameron ditched the run against Seattle when they got behind and let Flacco throw it 52 times, badly. Today I expect Ray Rice to get more touches, even against this excellent run D, because that lack of balance just didn’t work and if the Steelers moved the ball ok on the ground last week, Ray Rice should find some room running and catching.

Andy Dalton will be tested tonight – this is a massive game in terms of the AFC North and by extension, the wildcard race, and the Ravens are coming off a loss to a team they should have handled relatively easily.

Although the loss of Ray Lewis is massive, Baltimore will still mount an aggressive pass rush to put the rookie under as much pressure as possible. Dalton has been impressive under centre and one of the reasons is the Bengals’ O line that has given Dalton excellent protection and time to work. Chuck Pagano though, will bring all sorts of exotic blitz packages and Terrell Suggs, Pernell McPhee and Ed Reed will likely reach him at some stage.

Dalton’s biggest problem though, is the loss of A.J. Green who, even if he plays, is likely to be severely limited. There are decent options downfield, but the Ravens have a capable secondary and he may find his targets struggling to get separation. Cedric Benson is an interesting play today as the traditionally tight Baltimore run D has given up some yards recently, and with Ray Lewis missing he may get quite a few touches if Dalton begins to struggle.

I keep giving the points this season, which is not actually my preferred approach as I like opposing favourites in football, but with Green out/limited and the Ravens at home and in a bad mood, I think this will be an arm wrestle, and I see Baltimore a TD better. Shop for the 6.5.

Pick: Ravens -6.5 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11

Pick: 1st TD Torrey Smith @ 13.0; 1200; 12/1
Jerome Simpson @ 17.0; 1600; 16/1

Pick: Anytime TD Anquan Boldin @ 2.25; 125; 5/4

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NFL Record 2011
Remember, the bet against the spread is the main bet.

ATS
23-17 (57%)

First TD           
-9pts

Anytime TD
-18.5pts

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MLB Record 2011

128-120 (+27.55pts)

NY Jets (5-4) at Denver (4-5)
Sky, Friday November 18th, 1.20am

Florida’s read option offense will get a run out against a no-nonsense defensive coach. I’ve always felt these variations have a limited shelf-life; when the wildcat formation leaked into the NFL from college football, it caused a good deal of confusion before teams got used to the unfamiliar look and its effectiveness has declined.

The same may be true of Tebow and the Broncos, the question is whether the Jets are the team to begin to bottle it up. It’s certainly true the Jets are off a short week, but they’ll have studied hard and I’m confident they can take steps to counter the option offense, largely because the Jets’ defense matches up well on this type of attack – with strong corners, New York can pack the box to jam up the run and dare the Broncos to throw.

To make things worse for Denver, Moreno is done for the season and Willis McGahee has tweaked a hammy and will be limited – that makes this type of offense much more difficult to operate, as multiple ball carriers are essential. If Tebow is forced to throw it, then he’s playing into Rex Ryan’s hands and his 8th ranked pass defense.

I’ve mentioned previously that the return of Mangold has helped the Jets’ O a great deal and given the ‘ground and pound’ philosophy (and LT’s injury) I expect to see Greene get the rock a lot tonight and he can put up some numbers against a Denver run defense that ranks 16th. Von Miller is like a man possessed at the moment, and the Broncos are racking up the sacks, so Wayne Hunter will have a tough night - getting the run going will be crucial to protecting Sanchez, who was sacked five times by the anaemic Pats’ pass rush last week.

If the run does get going, then Sanchez will be allowed to take the occasional shot and although they’re a little banged up, his options downfield match up nicely; Burress, Holmes and Keller should get looks in the red zone.

Although Tebow will doubtless be asked to throw it more in this game (being so one dimensional has distinct disadvantages) the Jets are not the team to start to develop your throwing game against. Denver are vulnerable on the ground and will start to leave gaps vertically as they try to stop the run. The Jets have too much on both sides of the ball. I’ll give the points.

Pick: Jets -6 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11

Pick: 1st TD Plaxico Burress @ 13.0; 1200; 12/1
Tim Tebow @ 9.0; 800; 8/1

Pick: Anytime TD Jets Defense @ 4.0; 300; 3/1

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NFL Record 2011
Remember, the bet against the spread is the main bet.

ATS
23-16 (59%)

First TD           
-7pts

Anytime TD
-17.5pts

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MLB Record 2011

128-120 (+27.55pts)

Minnesota (2-6) at Green Bay (8-0)
ESPN, Tuesday November 15th, 1.30am

The Rodgers’ juggernaut rolls on; a man that accurate under centre, and that talented at reading a defense, should have to play with just one receiver to even up the odds. As it is, there’s usually a wave of green and gold surging downfield, and Rodgers just picks one he likes – he’s also more likely to run himself these days. There’s some hope with Jared Allen leading the pass rush, and with the return of Antoine Winfield in the secondary, but really they’re papering over the cracks of a pass defense that ranks 30th in the NFL.

Christian Ponder has talent, and looks good in the pocket, but he’ll need Adrian Peterson to tear it up today to earn him the time and opportunity to give the Pack the sort of scare he gave them in Week 7. It’s true the Packers have given up yards on defense this season, but they are still leading the league in INTs – that doesn’t bode well for Ponder who may have to throw the ball to keep Minnesota in the game. Turnovers are always crucial, but when the team taking the ball away is likely to score as a result, you’re in real trouble.

The Vikings will need to get ‘All Day’ going early but, as everyone knows this is the case, don’t be surprised if Ponder rears back and launches one early like when he hit Michael Jenkins in Week 7 – Green Bay does tend to give up the occasional big play. Percy Harvin will go tonight and the passing game will go through him and Peterson catching deep and out of the backfield, and the Pack’s 26th ranked pass D should be challenged at some point.

Last week I said that giving up so many points on MNF was crazy, but I’m going to do it again. The Green Bay offense has so much depth and variation it can’t be stopped, and their defense is sufficiently opportunistic for Dom Capers’ boys to get after the rookie in a hostile Lambeau Field.

I’ll give the bucketload.

Pick: Packers -13 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11

Pick: 1st TD Jordy Nelson @ 13.0; 1200; 12/1
Adrian Peterson @ 6.5; 550; 11/2

Pick: Anytime TD Percy Harvin @ 2.88; 187; 15/8

NY Giants (6-2) at San Francisco (7-1)
Sky Sports, Sunday November 13th, 9.15pm

This game really hinges on the 49ers running game and their defense; if San Francisco move the ball on the ground, they win, because their strong defense should handle the Giants’ depleted offense.

Jim Harbaugh says Alex Smith is an elite QB, and it’s certainly true that the HC has rebuilt a guy who was circling the plughole not long ago, but he’s done that by designing a gameplan that doesn’t ask too much of him and lets him get rid of the pill quickly.

The Giants are an excellent pass rush D and don’t need to bring lots of players to get pressure (look for the matchup of Joe Staley on Jason Pierrer-Paul, it’ll be the key to keeping Smith upright) and if Smith gets into third and long situations, then the 49ers will be vulnerable.

Remember too, that slowing the rhythm of a pass offense like the Giants’ and keeping Manning off the field is also critical. Luckily for HC Harbaugh, New York have struggled to stop the run all season and so it fits nicely with the game he’d want to play because San Francisco will run, run and run some more. Gore’s fitness is vital to their success, although don’t discount Kendall Hunter, who is an exciting talent.

As I mentioned, Eli Manning has a few guys nicked up in the receiving corps, and he’ll have to look at some of his other options deep; I like Victor Cruz to make a couple of plays today – he’s a big unit with plenty of strength and gets separation even in tight coverage. Manning may have to throw a lot tonight, so a little interest in Cruz to score looks in order. Look also for Jake Ballard who is often in space as the Giants shove their receivers deep and the 49ers have occasionally struggled in coverage underneath.

The 49ers defense has been extraordinary. I had written a very long, detailed description of their strengths and then realised it’s probably not what people want to read! Suffice to say, their LB corps is performing at a stellar level and has made it very difficult for the opposition to move the chains on the ground or through the air. Manning is for real, but has been known to make bad decisions when hurried (look for Aldon Smith off the edge) and it wouldn’t surprise me to see turnovers – it’s no accident that the 49ers have a +12 turnover advantage.

This is probably the game for the No.2 seeding in the NFC playoff picture, so there’s plenty at stake, and I anticipate a close one, but I’ll just favour the home team behind their running game and their defense.

Pick: 49ers -4 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11

Pick: 1st TD Vernon Davis @ 13.0; 1200; 12/1
Jake Ballard @ 17; 1600; 16/1

Pick: Anytime TD  Victor Cruz @ 2.3; 130; 13/10

Pittsburgh (6-3) at Cincinnati (6-2)
Sky Sports, Sunday November 13th, 6pm

Ben Roethlisberger has come to the party, and with key aspects of his protection coming together, I like him to get it done here. The Bengals have put up impressive numbers on defense this season, but have faced Colt McCoy, Kyle Orton, Alex Smith, Blaine Gabbert, Curtis Painter, Tarvaris Jackson and Matt Hasselbeck. Big Ben will be a different challenge.

Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown have the sort of vertical speed that will test Chris Crocker and Reggie Nelson who struggle deep, and the Cincy corners can be exploited by a passer of Roethlisberger’s quality. Carlos Dunlap, Michael Johnson, and Robert Geathers have given the Bengals a potent pass rush, but the re-signed Max Starks (son of Bengals Super Bowl XVI defensive end Ross Browner – betcha didn’t know that) seems to have stabilised the O line by securing Roethlisberger’s ‘blind side’.

One continuing problem with the offensive line is really punching holes for Rashard Mendenhall, and he will be going against a strong run D tonight. The Steelers are a throw first attack these days, but they need to keep the defense off balance by changing it up and I’d like to see Mendy get more touches because he is in such good form. Bottom line; he’s there if Ben needs him.

Andy Dalton. Wow. I know it’s not cool to talk fantasy, but I was asked to join a keeper league over the pond this season and blew up the team I had and stashed chunks of the Bengals’ offense; there were grumblings about the new manager (even a message during the draft of ‘Do you know who’s throwing to these guys?’) and look what happened. I never imaged Dalton/Green/Gresham (out) would be who they’ve turned out to be, but tonight the big beasts come into town and Dalton may find it a whole new challenge to find his receivers.

**** LeBeau will throw everything they have against Dalton, including James Harrison, in a series of zone blitzes and different schemes. Dalton has been very self-possessed in the pocket and it will be interesting to see how composed he remains; he certainly has the weapons.

Green has the sort of speed that the Ravens used thieve the game from the Steelers last week, but it highlighted a weakness in the Pittsburgh secondary – Green has the physical presence too to challenge the Steelers’ corners who will try to out muscle him at the line.

Cedric Benson is a downhill runner, and he’ll get plenty of touches, but he’s unlikely to find much room against a Steelers’ D that has limited Benson to 3.3 yards per carry and two touchdowns in six games.

I’m backing Ben. Lots of throws to his speed receivers and a solid performance on D means I’ll give the points.

Pick: Steelers -3.5 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11

Pick: 1st TD Heath Miller @ 15.0; 1400; 14/1 - A. J. Green @ 8.5; 750; 15/2

Pick: Anytime TD Antonio Brown @ 2.8; 180; 9/5

Oakland (4-4) at San Diego (4-4)
Sky Sports, Friday November 11th, 1.20am

A crucial AFC West game that’ll put the winner on top sees both teams short of important players through injury; San Diego are missing Luis Castillo, Kris Dielman, Malcom Floyd and Shaun Phillips, whereas Oakland have Chris Johnson, DeMarcus Van **** out, and Chimdi Chekwa and Michael Huff don’t look like they’ll go – most crucially of all for the Silver and Black, Darren McFadden is still sidelined.

Philip Rivers has confounded all season; I’ve discussed him at length so won’t do it again, but it’s probably best to keep it simple for him; it’s impossible to ignore his league leading 14 INTs and as the Raiders have struggled to stop the run, getting gashed for 298 yards by Denver on the ground last week, and they rank 29th against the run overall – perhaps he should just hand it off.

Matthews and Tolbert must get heavily involved, and I particularly like Matthews catching out of the backfield – a problem for the Raiders’ D all season. Denver’s success on the ground was via read option plays (fairly obviously because Tebow was under centre) and the Bolts don’t have that luxury here. Instead, Tolbert’s power up the middle will change it up and although I like that less, because of the Seymour/Kelly DT combo, with both backs capable of catching the ball (and Seymour questionable) they should put up some yards.

Kamerion Wimbley and Jarvis Moss are solid enough pass rushers, but if Rivers is going to pass – and the temptation to let the 4th best passing attack ypg against the 20th ranked pass defense may be too much – then he has options; the continued recovery of Antonio Gates is good news, and the loss of Huff and the Raiders’ problems at LB should give him room to operate.  Vincent Jackson may be running into form, and his matchup on Stanford Routt will be fascinating. Routt has emerged as Oakland’s top corner and getting the best of Jackson will decide whether he’s for real.

San Diego must start converting in the redzone though; they have made 31 trips into the final 20 and come away with just 15 TDs – that’s far too low.

I’m not buying Carson Palmer, and I don’t like the 19th ranked pass offense against the 4th ranked pass defense. That said, Palmer isn’t a bust, and he has plenty of speed out wide against a secondary that doesn’t have much speed to cover deep routes. The Chargers don’t have a pass rush to speak of, but Palmer has thrown picks, and he can’t afford to turn over the ball in this game, which may be something of a shootout.

Oakland’s big hope is Michael Bush, smashing it up between the tackles against the Bolts’ 18th ranked rush D which is not fully fit. If Bush gets going and takes the pressure off Palmer, look for some deep shots.

The other crucial aspect of the Oakland game is penalties; last week they gave away 130 yards on 15 flags and they have an eye-watering 730/84 stat on the season – in a territorial game, where rhythm is critical, those sorts of numbers would hobble any team, let alone the Raiders.

If Norv Turner finally calls a decent game, Rivers doesn’t turn it over too much, the Bolts’ run game gets going and the Chargers finally decide to finish off a game, instead of throwing it away late on, they can cover here.

Pick: Chargers -7.0 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11

Pick: 1st TD Antonio Gates @ 9.0; 800; 8/1
Pick: Anytime TD Jacoby Ford @ 2.75; 175; 7/4

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NFL Record 2011
Remember, the bet against the spread is the main bet.

ATS
20-15 (57%)

First TD               
-1pts

Anytime TD
-13.5pts

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MLB Record 2011

128-120 (+27.55pts)

Chicago (4-3) at Philadelphia (3-4)
ESPN, Tuesday November 8th, 1.30am

The same may apply here as with the Jets; the Eagles seem to be coming together because they’ve sorted out how best to use the players they have on the roster. This fits with the theory about the impact of the lockout, and how it hit some teams particularly badly; I’ve talked about why Philadelphia may fall into this category, so I won’t bore you again (it isn’t my original theory anyway!)

Last week, Vick and the Eagles were very impressive. One of the reasons it’s beginning to click on offense is that they’ve moved away from just a big play team and come to terms with just moving the chains before trying to complete a 50 yard TD pass, or break off a huge running play. If Philadelphia can stick with that mentality, then they can become the sum of their stellar parts. If not, and they get too cocky on the back of some success, then it’s back to broken plays and Vick scrambling nowhere and throwing picks.

Vick has plenty of weapons now that he’s looking beyond his own running and his primary receivers, and although I expect DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin to get targeted deep and LeSean McCoy to see plenty of touches (another smart tweak by Reid) look for Celek and Avant underneath against the Bears’ Cover-Two defense to keep the offense rolling. Chicago’s safeties have struggled all season and can be exploited.

Jay Cutler is still working behind a weak O line, and tonight could bet very tough against the Eagles’ Wide-Nine pass rush. His already pretty average options downfield should be further limited as Chicago is forced to drop TEs into pass protection if Cutler comes under too much pressure as Philadelphia bring everyone, safe in the knowledge that even if he throws back against the pressure, their corners will cope.

Cutler’s lifeline will be Matt Forte and expect him to be used in screens (why the Bills weren’t doing that with Jackson until late in the game, I’ll never understand) to try and break up the defense and attack the weakest element of that D; the Eagles linebackers. Forte has been outstanding so far, even in this limited O, and he’s a threat to score tonight.

Giving up more than a TD in MNF is crazy, and if these teams were called A and B, I’d take the points, but the way these two match up, I just can’t see Chicago hanging in there. Let’s just hope hubris and showmanship don’t get the better of the ‘dream team’ on national TV.

Pick: Eagles -7.5 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11

Pick: 1st TD Michael Vick @ 13; 1200; 12/1
Pick: Anytime TD Jeremy Maclin @ 2.1; 110; 11/10