orioles

Green Bay (11-0) at NY Giants (6-5)
Sky Sports 2, December 4th, 9.15pm

You think the Giants can do it again, like ’98 against the Broncos and ’07 against the Patriots? Nah, me neither. It might be nice to think that New York could break up another perfect season, but it looks like they’re carrying too many key injuries on defense to stop Green Bay’s juggernaut; Jason Pierre-Paul is outstanding, but he’s missing his buddy Osi Umenyiora. Justin Tuck is banged up and the line has been shuffled by Tom Coughlin. Rodgers will be merciless.

Eli Manning will likely be drawn into a shootout in an attempt to keep up, and Green Bay can give up plays downfield, but they do have a decent pass rush and are solid enough at the corners; Manningham being nicked up is a loss, but there’s still talent out wide. It’s doubtful that there’s enough, however. On the ground the Giants might see some success, with Green Bay giving up yards and carrying injuries at linebacker; the problem is that if they fall too far behind, the run comes out of the playbook.

The worry betting ATS with the Pack is that they tend to slow down at the end of the game and an easy cover suddenly becomes a tense 10 minutes as their ‘bend but don’t break’ defense sees the opposition driving without much trouble. However, there’s a little wrinkle here; if Green Bay win this one, they actually take the NFC North title and I’ll take that pot of gold to keep Aaron and his boys’ eye on the prize.

I’ve analysed the key players in this game on the Packers' side so many times that another long write up is probably useless (as if it was ever anything else!) but I’ll trust in the Pack to put on one more show to clinch.

Pick: Packers -7 @ 2.00; 100; Evens

Pick: 1st TD Greg Jennings @ 8.00; 700; 7/1
Pick: Anytime TD Packers Defense @ 4.00; 300; 3/1
Pick: Anytime TD John Kuhn @ 2.75; 175; 7/4

Cincinnati (7-4) at Pittsburgh (8-3)
Sky Sports 2, December 4th, 6pm

I have to believe Roethlisberger was limited by his broken thumb last week and the word is that he was struggling during practice this week, he went 21/31/193 yards with a TD and INT. Today he goes up against a thin Bengals secondary that is dinged up at the cornerback position and a little ponderous over the middle. Look for some deep shots to Antonio Brown, Mike Wallace (in particular) and Emmanuel Sanders who can exploit that lack of pace at safety on the Cincinnati side. There’ll also be gaps over the top short to Heath Miller against an aggressive Bengals pass rush – although Miller could find himself on blocking assignments in an attempt to protect Big Ben who was sacked five times in their meeting earlier in the season.

Cincinnati have suffered on the back end defensively, but remain tough against the run and Mendenhall seems to have worn down recently by the numbers; he gets the ball close in, though unless you take him to score first, the price is too short. Pittsburgh have too much talent vertically to rely on Mendenhall pounding the rock (although you shouldn’t rule him out after the Browns got the Bengals for 137yds on the ground last week) so the increasingly depleted Bengals’ pass D must hold up. One way to limit the damage is by getting to Roethlisberger, but Ben has played error free football and it’s difficult to rely on his mistakes these days.

‘Andy Dalton to A.J. Green’ – just typing it has me almost involuntarily raising my arms to signal a touchdown. Dalton started well, and is seemingly improving with every game. He had a difficult game last time against the Steelers, but Green got hurt early and Dalton’s game has progressed since then; he is composed in the pocket and makes good decisions and his line keep him upright, giving up only 17 sacks this season. He’s one of the reasons the Bengals boast a positive turnover number, and it’s worth highlighting the +1/-8 difference Cincy/Pittsburgh.

The matchup today between Green and Ike Taylor is heavily weighted in Green’s favour, so Polamalu will doubtless be on Green like a rash – and my feeling is the Steelers need Polamalu to play; Green is just too dangerous.

Dalton will be facing a Pittsburgh defense that kept their team in it last week and has started to engineer takeaways – something it failed to do earlier in the season. The Steelers will be keen to make amends for squeaking past Kansas by beating the hell out of a divisional rival at home. James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley are going to be coming for Dalton and again, the check down to Jermaine Gresham at Tight End may be a significant outlet if the Bengals’ O line begins to wobble. Remember though, this is the second ranked overall defense in the NFL and is 3rd against the pass and if the numbers show a weakness in Dalton’s game, it’s that he is less good against the toughest defenses – he’s thrown 12 picks all season, but five have been against Pittsburgh and Baltimore.

There’s no really potent run game to fall back on for Cincy, but Cedric Benson does see touches and can break off the occasional run, but this is really a supporting role for Dalton and the aerial game (and Benson is carrying an injury) Don’t discount Andrew Hawkins and Andre Caldwell in the slot and even Jerome Simpson out wide for Cincinnati.

I like Pittsburgh, in a chilly PA, to show their playoff credentials in this big Divisional game. There’s slightly more balance offensively for the home team and their defense can give Dalton a real test. It should be a cracker.

Pick: Steelers -7 @ 2.00; 100; Evens

Pick: 1st TD Antonio Brown @ 13; 1200; 12/1
Pick: Anytime TD Mike Wallace @ 2.00; 100; Evens

I’ve had a request to start posting the old ‘puter picks. So here they are ...!

‘Puter Picks

Panthers +3
Lions +9

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NFL Record 2011
Remember, the bet against the spread is the main bet.

ATS
30 - 21 (59%)

Philadelphia (4-7) at Seattle (4-7)

I wrote in my season preview that getting the 'dream team' to play together would be difficult - that wasn't as smart as I'd like it to appear, because football teams are dogged (no pun intended) by huge egos and the idea of knitting together so many on one sideline was always likely to be a poor one.

As it is, we've seen a combination of injuries and petulance begin to blunt the Eagles so badly that they look easy to oppose tonight.

The running backs on either side are the most potent element on the respective offenses, but McCoy is banged up (and Reid still insists on passing first) and facing a tough front seven who can shut down the ground game and Marshawn Lynch is similarly facing an Eagles' D that has toughened up considerably against the run in recent games.

Attacking the Philly wide nine D should encourage the Hawks, and Lynch needs to run between the tackles and attack the great weakness of that scheme - the soft middle. The same flaw presents an interesting bet with Doug Baldwin, who can exploit the Eagles weakness over the middle in the passing game, operating as a slot receiver. Philly are carrying injuries in the secondary and Tarvaris Jackson will be asked to keep it simple, either handing it off, or passing short - the perfect look for Baldwin.

DeSean Jackson is acting up and managed to get benched last week, adding to Reid's problems (both men are on limited time imo) and to make things worse, in this pass-heavy O, he's started dropping the ball, missing some important catches last week - this is a particular problem because he's a big play receiver, but his talent can't be denied.

Vince Young is by no means as limited as Tarvaris Jackson, and he can make plays with his strong arm, but Seattle are pretty tight on D - although look for Brent Celek, who could have a big night.

Honestly, this a trappy game. Both teams are difficult to predict, because if key elements break down on offense, there's little room for manoeuvre. The only real value betting the game result is taking Seattle to win at home, but it's not a bet I love.

Pick: Seahawks SU @ 2.45; 145; 16/11

Pick: 1st TD DeSean Jackson @ 11; 1000; 10/1
Pick: Anytime TD Brent Celek @ 2.25; 125; 5/4

Pick: Doug Baldwin Over 55.5 yards receiving @ 1.88; -114; 7/8

NY Giants (6-4) at New Orleans (7-3)

I liked all three picks yesterday in what has been a difficult season - and promptly went 1-2.

Be warned, I have the same strong feeling for the Saints!

The outstanding Giants' pass rush is carrying injuries (and absentees) and I expect Darren Sproles and Jimmy Graham in particular to give New York problems. Brees has plenty of other options and should be able to hit them against a soft Giants' secondary.

New Orleans can't stop the run, but Brandon Jacobs doesn't have the reliability of Ahmad Bradshaw, who has been ruled out again, and Manning has a couple of nicked up receivers in what is admittedly a talented bunch; he's playing in his hometown too and should be fired up, but I'll take the Saints to go marchin' in.

Pick: Saints -7 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11

Pick: 1st TD Jimmy Graham @ 7.5; 650; 13/2
Pick: Anytime TD Victor Cruz @ 2.2; 120; 6/5

Pittsburgh (7-3) at Kansas City (4-6)

The late night pick!

Kansas are over-matched in every department here and Pittsburgh should beat the hell out of the anaemic Chiefs. Tyler Palko won't get much joy against this defense and the Steelers have too many options on offense.

Give the points.

Pick: Steelers -10.5 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11

Pick: 1st TD Rashard Mendenhall @ 5.5; 450; 9/2
Pick: Anytime TD Antonio Brown @ 2.3; 130;13/10

Chicago (7-3) at Oakland (6-4)
Sky Sports, Sunday November 27th, 9.15pm

Another missing QB, but this replacement is potentially more capable in the NFL. Caleb Hanie has been around the organisation and its offense long enough, and has the skill set to keep Chicago’s five game winning streak going; but it will be a tough ask in a hostile Black Hole. Hanie went 13 for 20 for 153 yards a TD and an INT against the Packers in the NFC Championship Game last January, so he can get it done.

Teams have to respect Matt Forte, who will see the ball a lot (he has 40% of Chicago’s total yards this season) either running up against a hobbled Richard Seymour, or catching out of the backfield (he has the most receptions for the Bears) against the ponderous Oakland LBs – and that should give Hanie precious time against an aggressive Raiders pass rush – look for Kamerion Wimbley off the edge and Desmond Bryant and Tommy Kelly up the middle.

The Bears have kept Cutler upright this season, and the Raiders are banged up elsewhere on the D line, but it will still be a challenge for Chicago to click on offense. For TD purposes, Marion Barber is still getting the goal-line carries.

Out wide, Earl Bennett (averaging 83.7 yards per game since coming back from injury) Johnny Knox, Roy Williams and Devin Hester give Hanie options – and Hester will be his usual threat on returns – but Oakland’s secondary is solid, particularly Stanford Routt at CB, so monitor Forte’s progress closely if you bet in-running, because if he doesn’t fare well, or the Bears fall behind early, things will get even more difficult for Chicago. Bennett will be a favourite target in the slot, allowing Hanie to get the ball out quickly.

On the other side of the ball, Chicago will have to deal with Carson Palmer and Michael Bush – two of the biggest surprises to come out of the West in a while. I have to be honest, I thought Palmer would struggle more than he has after his difficult start and today he’ll go up against a talented secondary with several of his wideouts injured or out.

The Bears need to get to the QB more often, but still represent a threat along the line; Palmer was sacked four times last time out, and Chicago are adept at manufacturing takeaways (a plus 11 ratio this season) so he’ll need to lean heavily on Michael Bush who has carried the load admirably, to the tune of 599 yards and 6 TDs, since McFadden went down.

The problem for Bush is that Chicago have become tougher and tougher to run on as the season has gone on(restricting opposing teams to 80 yards or less on the ground in the last five games) and if he can’t get going, there’s every chance the Raiders’ O will stall. Look for Bush taking on Lance Briggs and Brian Urlacher; it may decide this game.

Deeper, Palmer has few options left fit to try and exploit corners and safeties that occasionally struggle in coverage, particularly where the receivers have pace, and it may fall to guys like Louis Murphy, Kevin Boss and Chaz Schilens to step up, so check the injury reports carefully before kick off to see if Denarius Moore, Darrius Heyward-Bey and Jacoby Ford are playing; even if they do go though, they’re likely to be limited.

The line opened at 4.5 and has come in to just a field goal, and I’m not surprised. I like the Bears’ opportunistic defense to be the difference here: I’ll take the points.

Pick: Bears +3 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11

Pick: 1st TD Marion Barber @ 13; 1200; 12/1
Denarius Moore @ 11; 1000; 10/1

Pick: Anytime TD Earl Bennett @ 3.4; 240; 12/5

Houston (7-3) at Jacksonville (3-7)
Sky Sports, Sunday November 27th, 6pm

There’s a story (almost certainly apocryphal) about a half-time talk by the Man Utd manager in a game of soccerball where he put George Best and Bobby Charlton at one end of the dressing room and the rest of the team at the other, “Now, you nine, just pass it to these two” he said.

Presumably, Gary Kubiak has had that kind of talk with Matt Leinart and told him to hand it off to Arian Foster (292 rushing yards in his last two games against the Jags) and Ben Tate (5.6 yards per carry on the season) and, if he gets really tempted to throw it, he can hit Andre Johnson or Owen Daniels. That’s it.

Heisman Trophy winner Matt Leinart isn’t horrible, but he’s been holding a clipboard since Nov. 2008, so he needs to keep it simple, and even though the Jags will stack the box with every warm body they can, the Texans’ excellent offensive line should still be able to open up running lanes. Terrance Knighton’s absence for Jacksonville last week was a significant factor in Chris Ogbonnaya gashing the Jaguars and it looks like Knighton is out this week too - remember the Jags also placed LB Clint Session on IR this week.

Of course, the return of Andre Johnson (146 yards and a TD in his last game against Jags) means that stacking the box runsthe risk of giving one of the most dangerous receivers in the game room to operate, and with Jacksonville’s best corner missing and their next best gimpy, the risk of letting Johnson match up one on one with what’s left may be too much for a team that is beginning to struggle.

On the other side of the ball, the Texans’ defense has been a revelation this year and Blaine Gabbert is going to have a rough time, especially if he reproduces the sort of poor clock management and decision making he showed at the end of last week’s game. Last time these teams met, he went 10/30 for 97 yards, one TD and two INTs. It was clear that Gabbert doesn’t enjoy the sort of aggressive pressure off the edge that Houston brings and the rookie looks as though he doesn’t like getting hit and tends to fling the ball to avoid contact; the Texans will bring the house.

That said, it’s worth noting that Gabbert isn’t the offense in Jacksonville; it’s Maurice Jones-Drew, who only needs 59 yards for 1000 on the season. The problem for MJD is that the Texans are tough against the run and with Gabbert under centre, there’s little to stop Wade Phillips from concentrating on stopping Jones-Drew, so he should find it difficult to dominate the way he has so far this season, with a strong linebacking corps led by Brian Cushing to overcome.

At the perimeter, there’s not a lot for the Jags to get excited about, partly because of the personnel, but also because the Houston secondary is playing at a high enough level to shut what there is down. There’s only really Marcedes Lewis who can match up (and that’s only because of his size) but Gabbert seems unwilling to get him the ball.

The combination of a potent offense (even with Leinart) and a defense that should give the Texans good field position throughout and limit MJD means I take Houston as a very strong bet here.

Pick: Texans -6 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11

Pick: 1st TD Arian Foster @ 5.0; 400; 4/1
Texans D @ 26; 2500; 25/1

Pick: Anytime TD Andre Johnson @ 2.0; 100; Evens

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NFL Record 2011
Remember, the bet against the spread is the main bet.

ATS
27-19 (59%)

First TD           
-11pts

Anytime TD
-21pts

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MLB Record 2011

128-120 (+27.55pts)

San Francisco (9-1) at Baltimore (6-4)

Sorry about this, I don't like just listing picks, but as no-one's likely to be about, I'll make an exception

I like the 49ers here.

Pick: 49ers +3 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11

Pick: 1st TD Michael Crabtree @ 13; 1200; 12/1
Ravens Defense @ 21; 2000; 20/1

Pick: Anytime TD Vernon Davis @ 2.25; 125; 5/4

Miami (3-7) at Dallas (6-4)
Sky Sports, Thursday November 24th, 9.15pm

The knock on Romo was that he turned the ball over too much, but recently he’s started looking after the pill much better and the team’s fortunes have followed, with some nice results’ however, he’s still prone to missing the occasional easy target and he’s running into a team that hasn’t allowed a TD in the last three games, so he’d better be sharp. Cameron Wake and Koa Misi will bring pressure and there is some talent in the Fins’ secondary. The most important factor in support of Dallas though, is the emergence of DeMarco Murray to complement the deep threats from Dez Bryant, Laurent Robinson and Jason Witten.

DE Jared Odrick has been excellent for Miami, who have been strong against the run, but Murray catches out of the backfield and Felix Jones is getting well. Dez Bryant will draw Vontae Davis, so I’m looking for Laurent Robinson (matching up on Sean Smith and the beatable safeties Reshad Jones and Yeremiah Bell) to get some love from Tony on Thanksgiving. With FB Tony Fiammetta still out, Witten may find himself with blocking duties all day as the Cowboys try to get the run going, because that’s the key here on offense, so he’s less attractive in the TD stakes.

Matt Moore, who knew? He’s developed into a competent game manager, but that may not be enough tonight. He’ll have to make some plays, but he can be encouraged that the Dallas secondary has been poor of late and Mike Jenkins and Gerald Sensabaugh are out. Moore has the targets, but it’s worth noting that the Dolphins don’t have him throwing it out wide and they’ll need to in this game which may shift their QB out of his comfort zone. Brandon Marshall can have a big game tonight – he’ll likely match up on Terence Newman and of these two old men, the former should be able to dominate. Look for the Miami TEs this evening, who can exploit poor coverage and a nicked up Sensebaugh, while not demanding too much of Moore.

If the Dolphins can get Daniel Thomas and Reggie Bush going, that’ll also fit the gameplan that has brought them this recent success; DeMarcus Ware and his buddies will be on Moore all game and (outside of Jake Long) the best way to slow the Dallas pass rush is to get the ball moving out of the backfield. The Cowboys’ linebackers lack pace and getting Bush to the outside, while using Thomas in a more direct role, can test the home side who have struggled against the run.

There’s been a bit of flip flopping for me on this pick ATS, but America’s team at home, on Thanksgiving Day, should have enough, so I’ll give the points.

Pick: Cowboys  -7 @ 2.00; 100; Evens

Pick: 1st TD Dez Bryant @ 8.0; 700; 7/1
Anthony Fasano @ 13.0; 1200; 12/1

Pick: Anytime TD Laurent Robinson @ 2.0; 100; Evens

Green Bay (10-0) at Detroit (7-3)
Sky Sports, Thursday November 24th, 5.30pm

49 years ago ... the Packers — 10-0 and the winners of 12 straight games, including the 1961 N.F.L. championship — went to Detroit on Thanksgiving and fell in one of the more stunning losses of the Vince Lombardi era.

Tiger Stadium was filled with 57,598 fans on a blustery afternoon, and millions more tuned in to CBS for the noon start.  “Everyone watched that game ... God and his 12 disciples were watching.” 
Roger Weintraub in yesterday’s NYT

The seemingly unstoppable Green and Gold machine is certainly going to be tested today, but unlike ’62, this will be less about a heroic defensive effort than an offensive slugfest.

Rodgers has the usual array of talent downfield (I won’t discuss them all again) and is going up against a Detroit defense that has given up points in its last two games, and appears on the downswing statistically, but still ranks 8th against the pass.

The Lion’s pass rush has 27 sacks on the season and Ndamukong Suh, Nick Fairley and Kyle Vanden Bosch can bring pressure on Rodgers, whose O line has been less than stellar. The problem is that blitzing someone as talented as Rodgers, with the options he has deep, is dangerous because by definition that will leave gaps in behind. The only real chance of throttling Rodgers’ production is bringing pressure from that talented front four without bringing everyone; something Detroit can do, but it’s a slim hope.

One critical difference may be the absence of James Starks. Green Bay rely on Starks to grind it out late (he ranks second in the NFL with 229 rushing yards in the fourth quarter) and need him to change it up during the game. Detroit’s wide-nine defense makes them susceptible to the run (and indeed they rank 27th against the run) so it would be nice to see Ryan Grant get going – if you bet in-running, bear in mind that Kuhn will get the carries close in.

Detroit however, have discovered Kevin Smith, and Dom Capers will have to respect the damage he might do against a soft Packers’ run D (12th). Matt Stafford with time to throw will give any team problems, let alone Green Bay’s 31st rank pass defense and the Packers don’t sack opposition QBs as much as they’d like.

When you have a reborn Nate Burleson out wide and TEs Brandon Pettigrew and Tony Scheffler matching up on Desmond Bishop and A.J. Hawk who are rotten in coverage, to throw to things are pretty good, but then you have maybe the most physically dominating wide receiver in the game there too - Calvin ‘megatron’ Johnson (despite a couple of blank weeks) will score, but I’m not having him at 1/3.

This could be a great game, and an offensive arm wrestle should be fun to watch (even if traditionalists like me will prattle on about football being a circus these days) and Detroit will fancy their chances today, but I’m going to take Aaron Rodgers to get his team home – just.

Pick: Packers -6 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11

Pick: 1st TD Jordy Nelson @ 11.0; 1000; 10/1
Kevin Smith @ 9.0; 800; 8/1

Pick: Anytime TD Brandon Pettigrew @ 2.6; 160; 8/5

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NFL Record 2011
Remember, the bet against the spread is the main bet.

ATS
26-17 (60%)

First TD           
-5pts

Anytime TD
-20pts

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MLB Record 2011

128-120 (+27.55pts)