orioles

New England (10-3) at Denver (8-5)
Sky Sports, December 18th, 9.15pm

I don’t buy Tim Tebow as an NFL QB, but I do buy Denver's astonishing late season momentum. You can get after Tebow, and force him into mistakes and limit his game if you have a tight, aggressive defense ... and tonight he goes up against New England.

Consider this; Brady is 1-6 against the Broncos and the Pats are 2-15 in Denver. Bill Belichick is 3-10 against Denver as a HC. Tebow has 111.0 4th quarter passer rating, the best in the AFC and is 7-1 as a starter.

But it’s the Patriots to take this.

This is pretty simple for me; yes, the New England pass defense is poor, but Tim Tebow and the Broncos are still a run first team. In fact, Denver gives up more points per game than tonight’s opposition, and ranks 16th against the pass, a much more dangerous situation when it’s Brady under centre than Tebow.

If Denver are to win, then they’ll have to pressure Brady (who admittedly had a poor game last week by his standards) and then find a way to limit Rob Gronkowski (Champ Bailey?) and the rest of the New England receivers. Although the Pats have problems along the offensive line, they’re keeping Brady relatively clean in the pocket, although they'll be challenged tonight by Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil.

The second aspect that needs to click for the Broncos is the running game; obviously, this plays more to Tebow’s strengths and Willis McGahee is set to go over 1000 yards on the season, but New England have some run stoppers up front and I’d never want to outsmart Belichick out of the backfield.

I’ll take New England to spoil the party, because this stacks up as Brady against Tebow.

Pick: Patriots-7 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11

Pick: 1st TD Wes Welker @ 8.5; 750; 15/2
Pick: Anytime TD Aaron Hernandez @ 2.62; 162; 15/8

Washington (4-9) at New York Giants (7-6)
Sky Sports, December 18th, 6pm

Manning’s the man - he’s playing at a level I never believed he would (all the more impressive as he called the shot in the off-season) and he’s been so clutch this season that opposing him may be rather foolish, but I like the Redskins to cover here.

This call depends on the Washington pass rush getting home (Manning has found this matchup difficult) Roy Helu making hay against the weak Giants’ run defense and if the Redskins can weather the inevitable Rex Grossman mistake(s).

Grossman has thrown for at least 200 yards in each of his last five starts, and is clearly the best option Shanahan has on the roster. Rex took the Giants for 305 yards and 2 TDs in Week One and with Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora missing, he can get after a weak New York secondary with only (the admittedly excellent) Jason Pierre-Paul to worry him at the line. Look for Santana Moss to make some plays, because the big players will need to today if Washington are to push the home side.

Roy Helu is crucial: he will neutralise the pressure on Grossman and keep Manning off the field. The Giants have problems at line backer and Helu can get to the second level and make some big plays.

Eli Manning has weapons deep, and if he gets the ball out in any comfort he’ll allow Nicks, Cruz, Manningham and Ballard to prosper against a middling Redskins secondary. This means the Washington pass rush has to step up and cause Manning the sort of problems he had in the first game this season - Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan must get to the New York trigger man, who can get erratic under pressure.

The line has come in from -7 to -5.5 at some places, and I have to be honest, I don’t like moves off key numbers where the move is ‘against me’. I wouldn't bet this game normally, but if you must, keep stakes to a minimum.

Pick: Redskins +6 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11

Pick: 1st TD Hakeem Nicks @ 9.0; 800; 8/1
Pick: Anytime TD Victor Cruz @ 2.00; 100; Evens

Dallas (7-6) at Tampa Bay (4-9)
Sky Sports, December 18th, 1.20am

Another trappy game.

Unbelievably, last week the team dismantled by Atlanta early on Friday morning put 41 points on tonight’s home side. The Tampa Bay secondary is awful and even the return of Aqib Talib shouldn’t stem the flow of points. Romo is still a talented quarterback and he has a strong set of receivers to throw to, so he shouldn’t have much trouble putting up numbers. There’s not much of a pass rush to worry about as frankly the Bucs struggle to sack anyone.

Unfortunately for Tampa, as bad as their secondary is, their run defense is even worse. The loss of DeMarco Murray is a blow for Dallas, but Felix Jones looked dangerous last week, going over 100 yards against the Giants. Jones is no horse, but he’ll put up some yards from scrimmage, just because Tampa Bay are so horrible at stopping the run.

On offense, the Buccaneers have to stop giving the ball away (31 on the season, the most in the NFL) and getting penalised so much. Josh Freeman’s play has fallen away badly this season and he’s injured. He threw two picks last week and fumbled one away, taking his personal tally to a league leading 18 turnovers, and his lack of accuracy is likely to show up as Dallas bring everyone they can to pressure him -  look out for DeMarcus Ware. LeGarrette Blount is a fair runner, but the Dallas run defense is ok and if, as seems likely, Tampa fall behind, he tends to fade out of the offensive picture.

All this points to a pretty facile win for the Cowboys, but there are a number of reasons to be cautious: Dallas seem unable to kill off a team (the look on Jerry Jones’s face when Dallas blew last week’s game was priceless) and their record in December is poor. On the road this season, Dallas (who are 2-4)have played three overtime games and two others have been decided on scores in the final 30 seconds. Their pass defense is weak and they aren’t great in clutch situations and they need to be in this crucial game – the back door cover looms!

However, let’s show a little faith; Raheem Morris is all but gone and the Tampa organisation is thinking about the next step – Dallas have a chance, against a poor team, to keep their season alive, they just have to execute.

Pick: Cowboys -7 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11

Pick: 1st TD Miles Austin @ 9.0; 800; 8/1
Pick: Anytime TD Laurent Robinson @ 2.25; 125; 5/4
Pick: Felix Jones Total Rushing yards Under 95.5 @ 1.83; -120; 5/6

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NFL Record 2011

ATS
35 - 25 (58%)

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MLB Record 2011

128-120 (+27.55pts)

Jacksonville (4-9) at Atlanta (8-5)
Sky Sports, December 16th, 1.20am

This looks a bit trappy; Jacksonville are a mess, with a quarterback who is scared of getting hit (and is horribly erratic as a result) and no receivers at all out wide, but they have a running back who can almost win it on his own, carrying and catching the ball, and they did put up some points last week.

In truth though, Atlanta should have too many offensive weapons and sheer weight of pressure on that side of the ball (particularly given the state of the Jags’ defense) gives them a chance to cover, even giving away this many points.

Matt Ryan should pick apart a secondary that has eight defensive backs on IR, especially as Jacksonville have no pass rush to speak of; Roddy White, Julio Jones and the ageless Tony Gonzalez will see the ball a lot, despite Atlanta generally keying on the run.

I’ll give the points, but keep it small and take an interest in the Overs.

Pick: Falcons -13.5 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11
Pick: Over 41.5 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11

Pick: 1st TD Julio Jones @ 10.0; 900; 9/1
Pick: Anytime TD Julio Jones @ 2.2; 120; 6/5

St. Louis (2-10) at Seattle (5-7)
ESPN, December 13th, 1.30am

Two teams seemingly going in opposite directions and the Rams’ are about to throw 3rd string QB, Tom Brandstater into the bear pit that is CenturyLink Field. The former Fresno State signal-caller, who hasn’t thrown a pass in anger in the NFL, will be going up against a pretty ‘salty’ Seattle defense; the hawks’ front seven have improved as the season has gone on and may damage Brandstater, who must be wishing he was wrapping presents instead. Even if Bradford does go, he’s badly banged up and will be almost as fragile. Kellen Clemens, signed on Wednesday, could find himself under centre at some point.

St. Louis rank dead last in run defense, which could be a problem as Marshawn Lynch is running like a man possessed and has gone over 100 yards in four of the last five games. If Seattle get him going, this could get ugly. Tarvaris Jackson is managing the game well and even completing some passes, and should be able to air it out tonight on the back of the run game, although the Rams do have a pass rush and Okung has landed on IR to add to the Seahawks’ injury problems along the offensive line, so there’s a glimmer of hope for the road team.

Another hope is Steven Jackson, but St Louis’s offensive line has lost players too, with left guard Jacob Bell the latest casualty. Jackson hasn’t been putting up numbers recently as a result. The Rams have some talent out wide, but they’ve given up an eye-watering 43 sacks on the seasons, and Seattle have started to put it together against the pass, with eight picks in the last four games, so their wideouts may starve.

If Seattle just key on stopping Jackson and bearing down on Brandstater/Bradford/Clemens/whoever and feed Marshawn Lynch, with the occasional look for Golden Tate and Doug Baldwin, they should beat the Rams going away.

Pick: Seattle -9 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11 (WH)

Pick: 1st TD Seahawk Defense @ 26; 2500; 25/1
Pick: Anytime TD Golden Tate @ 3.4; 240; 12/5

NY Giants (6-6) at Dallas (7-5)
Channel 4, 1.15am

Ouch. Robbed in the first game, but humiliated in the second - that'll teach me to try and be smarter than Mr Rodgers! I've run out of superlatives for an offense like that.

This one? Well, I don't like the error-prone Cowboys (witness last week's fiasco) who are atop the division seemingly by default.

While Romo is solid, his offensive line is not, and Jason Pierre-Paul and his buddies should be able to make the Dallas triggerman sufficiently uncomfortable to provoke mistakes. That said, New York are really suffering with injuries on the defensive side of the ball and the loss last week of Safety Kenny Phillips makes them even weaker deep. DeMarco Murray must get going for Dallas to help Romo out. TEs have caused New York fits and with growing problems at linebacker and safety, I like Witten in the TD market.

Eli Manning has been playing well, and enjoys going up against the Cowboys. His O line is pretty banged up and porous too (look out for DeMarcus Ware matched up on David Diehl) but he tends to remain rather cooler in the pocket and gets the ball out quicker than Romo. Manning also has some emerging talent deep (and more of it) and a decent two headed rushing option with Bradshaw back to partner Jacobs.

I like the balance of New York and I'll take the points, wrap them up in my shame and go to bed to cry myself to sleep

Pick: Giants +4.5

Pick: First TD Victor Cruz @ 10; 900; 9/1
Pick: Anytime TD Jason Witten 2.25; 125; 5/4

Oakland (7-5) at Green Bay (11-0)
Sky Sports, December 11th, 9.15pm

Well, after one smartass pick, here’s another; I’m going to take on another juggernaut offense and look for a ‘back door cover’.

At this time of year, the most successful teams become very heavily favoured and attract large spreads; these numbers can be opposed, particularly where the favourite in question is prone to giving up points late. The bets tend to be pretty tense because if they hit, it’s obviously during garbage time, when a team like the Pack have put up the usual 35+ points and they start to get even softer on defense.

I’ve looked at Green Bay so many times that again, I won’t go back over old ground. Suffice to say they continue to be unstoppable. The question is whether Oakland have the talent on each side of the ball to bring in the back door cover.

Much depends on Michael Bush, but he must get going early and the Raiders mustn’t get too far behind – teams are often so quickly behind against the Pack that they tend to ditch the running game and throw the ball in an attempt to keep up, and that will obviously not only limit Bush’s touches, but also remove the most successful element of the Oakland offense and the chance to keep Rodgers on the sidelines. Green Bay are carrying injuries at linebacker and rank 29th against the run (YPC) so if Bush can get enough touches, he can put up the yards.

I was sceptical about Carson Palmer coming off the couch, but I was wrong – he’s proved more than capable and coped pretty well with the injuries to his primary receivers (another reason Bush may get touches tonight) but he’ll need all his experience today with only targets like Darrius Heyward-Bey, Chaz Schilens, Louis Murphy and Kevin Boss on offer. However, this is a beatable pass defense, even with Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams at CB, but look for some INTs from the Pack who specialise in take aways in the secondary.

The Raiders are coming off a prison pounding by Miami, and it was primarily the fins’ run game that did the damage, taking Oakland for 209 yards on the ground. Luckily, Green Bay don’t have much to offer in the running game (it’s not like they really need one) and James Starks is out, leaving Ryan Grant and Brandon Saine to carry the ball.

Oakland have powerful tackles and OLB Kamerion Wimbley is racking up sacks, so Rodgers may actually come under pressure from the 5th ranked sack team, as his pass protection has not been great. Deeper, the Raiders’ aren’t as strong, and Rodgers will doubtless exploit the man coverage Oakland run, so again, the Raiders must keep him off the field for as long as possible.

Take the points and sweat it out in the fourth quarter.



Pick: Raiders +12 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11 (Boyles)

Pick: 1st TD Greg Jennings @ 8.5; 750; 15/2
Pick: Anytime TD Green Bay Defense @ 4.00; 300; 3/1
Pick: Last TD Michael Bush @ 8.0; 700; 7/1

New Orleans (9-3) at Tennessee (7-5)
Sky Sports, December 11th, 6pm

I’m going to oppose the Saints here – despite the fact they are one of the hottest teams in the NFL at the moment.

New Orleans are putting up insane numbers on offense – however, their defense (particularly on the ground) is decidedly suspect and the Titans’ Chris Johnson seems to be hitting his stride after his hold out/lock out sluggishness and he could have a big day against the New Orleans’ 31st ranked rush defense (YPC).

Games where the favoured road team is on a different surface and playing under unfamiliar conditions and the QB splits reflect those changes, present an interesting betting proposition, and although opposing a team with the sort of talent and momentum the Saints have is incredibly risky - it’s worth noting that, despite over 90% of the action being on New Orleans, the line moved the ‘wrong’ way, as the spread was clipped by as much as a point and a half in the Saints’ favour.

Brees tends to put up his big passing numbers inside, and a slightly chillier Nashville may clip his wings a little; he rates 93.5 outside and 115.6 inside and has a TD/INT ratio of 23/5 on turf to 7/6 on grass and 20/3 to 10/8 indoors versus outdoors.

The Titans will need to rely on Johnson on the ground; this will keep Brees off the field, wear down an already poor Saints D and hopefully open up the passing game for Matt Hasselbeck. The danger is that if the run game doesn’t get going, relying on Hasselbeck and the Titans’ passing game when they’re behind is a horrible thought, even against a New Orleans’ pass defense that is allowing more than 30 completions a game and has no pass rush to speak of.

Hasselbeck has been poor recently and his options out wide are limited (Britt is out, Washington is injured and for some reason the potentially excellent Jared Cook is ignored, even though today he could match up on a hapless Roman Harper) but Damian Williams could find some room deep if the Titans keep Hasselbeck clean in the pocket and the Saints’ corners continue to struggle. Look for Chris Johnson catching out of the backfield too.

As for the New Orleans’ offense, it’s a bit like trying to analyse the Packers – there’s so much talent it’s almost pointless to run through the list. Suffice to say Jimmy Graham is one of the outstanding talents in football; the Titans are solid on pass D, but have had problems covering TEs and in any case, a physical specimen like Graham is almost impossible to shut down. Chris Ivory and Pierre Thomas are less potent on the ground (and this is a pretty stout run D) but Darren Sproles can be dangerous on his day.

I’d like the weather to be worse, Chris Johnson to be absolutely trustworthy, Matt  Hasselbeck to have some form and the Titans to have a bunch of better targets out wide, but I’m still going to be the only person on the planet backing the Titans to keep their post-season hopes alive.

New Orleans are 2-4 ATS on the road this season and are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as a road favourite.

Tennessee are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as a home underdog of 3.5-10.0 and the Titans are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a home dog.

Pick: Titans +4 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11 (Corals)

Pick: 1st TD Jimmy Graham @ 9.0; 800; 8/1 (PP)
Pick: Anytime TD Damian Williams @ 2.63; 162; 13/8

‘Puter Picks

Texans +3
Bills +7

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NFL Record 2011

ATS
32 - 23 (58%)

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MLB Record 2011

128-120 (+27.55pts)

Cleveland (4-8) at Pittsburgh (9-3)
Sky Sports, December 8th, 1.20am

This is the time of year when I like to take the double figure dogs on offer (particularly, if you bet in running, have a look at these markets relatively late in the game when the favoured team has built a lead – there can be some real value about) however, this isn’t one of those occasions. Pittsburgh are looking to clinch the valuable first round bye and Cleveland have just enough to mean that benching players late on is unlikely.

The Browns’ defense is getting manhandled on the line and giving up yards on the ground and I expect Mendenhall and Redman to see plenty of touches with Roethlisberger still nursing a broken thumb. Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown out wide will still pose a significant threat (even against Cleveland’s capable secondary) but much will depend on how dominant the Steelers’ run is.

On the other side of the ball, Cleveland have real problems: Hillis is severely limited and his direct running style is rather easier for Pittsburgh’s linebackers who are less capable laterally. Cleveland will mix it up with different schemes and personnel, but the Steelers should cope.

Colt McCoy is in real trouble; he’s badly banged up and his game has suffered accordingly. Whatever talent the Browns have out wide (and there is some in Greg Little, Josh Cribbs, Mohamed Massaquoi and Jordan Norwood in the slot) they’re going to struggle to get the ball as the aggressive Steelers get after McCoy; with James Harrison coming off a three sack game, McCoy may not even finish this one.

Frankly, Cleveland are overmatched in every area here and a hungry Pittsburgh team could feast on them. I’ll give two TDs.

Pick: Steelers -14 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11

Pick: 1st TD Rashard Mendenhall @ 4.5; 350; 7/2
Pick: Anytime TD Antonio Brown @ 2.25; 125; 5/4

San Diego (4-7) at Jacksonville (3-8)
ESPN, December 6th, 1.30am

A Monday night treat to rank up there with a kick in the cobblers from Santa’s reindeer.

Here’s a quick summary:

Jacksonville have no secondary left, no pass rush and a quarterback with all the wild-eyed talent of a sock puppet – not that it makes much difference, because his receivers are suited up tailor’s dummies. They have sacked their head coach and wide receiver coach in celebration of the festive season, and the owner has sold the team.

San Diego are packed with skill players who are playing like drunken monkeys. The worst offender is Philip Rivers whose meltdown is completely bewildering. He’s not helped by an offensive line that is letting him getting sacked too often and receivers who can’t seem to get any separation, but his decision making and accuracy have been awful – Rivers leads the league in interceptions with seventeen and has turned the pill over 21 times in total. The team boasts a -10 turnover margin. They’re also pretty weak on the back end.

The plus side? Well the Jags aren’t hopeless up front on D and have one outstanding player who is carrying the whole team on the other side of the ball – Maurice Jones-Drew. MJD will be the offense tonight for Jacksonville and the Chargers, who rank 26th against the run, will struggle to contain him (their decent effort against him last season was just after he’d had an op on his knee) and he’s good enough to keep the Jags in the game.

As I said, San Diego have the players, particularly out wide with Vincent Jackson, Malcolm Floyd and Antonio Gates and with Rashean Mathis and Derek Cox done for the season, this must be a game for this group to produce. The Bolts’ ground attack has always been something of an enigma with Ryan Matthews and Mike Tolbert never quite dominating and Jacksonville actually have a decent front seven. Tolbert does get goal line touches, though.

This is a honking game, with two horrible teams with problems everywhere running around like kids in a schoolyard, but the Chargers (who are traditionally excellent in December) should have too much.

My recommendation? Get some kip.

Pick: Chargers -3 @ 1.87; -115; 20/23

Pick: 1st TD Antonio Gates @ 9.00; 800; 8/1
Pick: Anytime TD Mike Tolbert @ 2.1; 110; 11/10