For those of you unfamiliar with my dubious previews, the bet against the spread is the main bet. The others, while I do bet them, are side bets. For the post-season, any starred pick is one I particularly like.
Atlanta (10-6) at New York Giants (9-7)
Sky Sports, Sunday 6pm
Well, I’ve nailed my colours to the Giants’ mast and they have to least win out here to bring any trade into play, so my pick here isn’t much of a mystery.
Behind an offensive line that has improved lately, Eli Manning can attack a defense that has a pass rush that struggles to get home and boasts a secondary that ranks 20th in yards given up. This means New York can spread it out and look for the big passing plays that have been the hallmark of their offense this season, against a group that is carrying an injury to its best corner, Brent Grimes and struggles in coverage. Look for Cruz out of the slot where his speed and route running make him one of the most dangerous receivers in football. Hakeem Nicks has the physicality to dominate his coverage and when Manningham is added in to three receiver sets, the challenge should be too much for the dirty birds. I like it even more if Ballard is back.
Besides the aerial attack, the Giants can also bring Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs to bear; the former can also do damage catching and has been racking up TDs down the stretch. New York can change it up with Brandon Jacobs and even D.J. Ware is getting touches; the Giants tend to move to the ground in the redzone, so look for a score or two from these backs. Atlanta haven’t been bad against the run, but the absence of strongside linebacker Stephen Nicholas has hampered the stop unit and they’ve given up yards recently.
However, Atlanta can’t be taken lightly. Matt Ryan is talented and he has nice options with Roddy White, Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez receiving and Michael Turner out of the backfield. The move to a no huddle offense has given momentum to the Falcons recently and there’s no denying the Giants do suffer from a poor secondary that can blow coverage.
I’m hoping this game turns on the New York pass rush limiting Ryan, who will need to get the ball out quickly and accurately, and although he prospers at home in the dome, he’s less effective outside on the road; Jason Pierre-Paul, Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora need to bring it though.
Similarly, Michael Turner, whose hamstring is still suspect, seems not to like the road, and the New York run defense has tightened up in the last few games, so he should be held in check – particularly as the Falcons will likely try to attack with the throw.
This won’t be a stroll for the G men in East Rutherford, but I’ll give the points.
Pick: Giants -3 @ 2.00; 100; Evens
Pick: First TD Ahmad Bradshaw @ 8.0; 700; 7/1
Pick: Anytime TD Roddy White @ 2.00; 100; Evens*
Pick: Over 47.5 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11*
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NFL Record 2011
ATS
43- 28 (60%)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MLB Record 2011
128-120 (+27.55pts)
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US Sports Betting - Live NFL and MLB
Live NFL - Detroit at New Orleans
07 Jan 12 23:13
Detroit (10-6) at New Orleans (13-3)
Sky Sports, Sunday 1am
Detroit have the best receiver in the NFL, but New Orleans have Drew Brees and a whole slew of options – if Matt Flynn picked apart the Lions, Brees could run riot.
The gambler in me looks at this as a classic opportunity to oppose the herd, because even giving up double digits, the Saints are still being backed, but looking at the match ups I think (a bit like the Bengals) this game may have come a tad early for Detroit. New Orleans put up crazy numbers in the Superdome and will score a lot of points – the question is whether the Lions can hang with them. One critical area they must control is the penalty yards they give up – free yards to this Saints’ offense will murder them; apart from the Raiders, Detroit are the most penalised team in the NFL.
Detroit have some players back and that means it’s not entirely the same outfit that faced the Saints earlier in week 13. Aaron Berry is back, and Ndamukong Suh, Chris Houston and Louis Delmas will be playing against the Saints for the first time this season after being suspended and injured respectively.
The Lions have a decent defensive front, and will challenge the New Orleans offensive line, but that group has also been solid all season, with some nice veteran talent keeping Brees upright.
Brees has the luxury of considerable flair both downfield and catching out of the backfield. Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston, Robert Meachem and Darren Sproles are all capable of big plays and Lance Moore operates nicely in the slot. That’s a pretty potent offensive unit, but oddly perhaps the element that will keep them rolling is the ground game; the Saints rank 6th ypg on the ground and have a number of backs to rotate through, this allows Sean Payton to mix it up and keep defenses off-balance.
Megatron. The finest receiver in the NFL and someone I’m looking forward to watching tonight; his power, athleticism and skill, set this knackered old heart a-pounding. His ability to go up in double, even triple coverage and come down with the ball is almost magical. Stafford has been red hot down the stretch averaging 428 ypg. That all means Calvin Johnson will need to be double covered all night, which leaves the rest of the receiving corps with chances. Look for Pettigrew over the middle against some banged up linebackers.
Greg Williams will have to use all kinds of blitz packages to shake up Stafford, but the Saints aren’t a big sack unit; their greatest hope is the leaky Lions’ O line and the fact that Stafford may be trying to keep pace and will have to force some plays. The other weakness is Detroit’s running game, which is nicked up. Kevin Smith and Maurice Morris seem more effective catching out of the backfield and the Saints are solid enough against the run.
Giving up this many points in the post-season, and against an offense as potent as Detroit’s looks risky, but I’ll put my faith in the Saints.
Pick: Saints -10 @ 2.00; 100; Evens (Lads)
Pick: 1st TD Darren Sproles @ 9.0; 800; 8/1
Pick: Anytime TD Nate Burleson @ 3.25; 225; 9/4*
Pick: Buy Match TD Yardage @ 140
Sky Sports, Sunday 1am
Detroit have the best receiver in the NFL, but New Orleans have Drew Brees and a whole slew of options – if Matt Flynn picked apart the Lions, Brees could run riot.
The gambler in me looks at this as a classic opportunity to oppose the herd, because even giving up double digits, the Saints are still being backed, but looking at the match ups I think (a bit like the Bengals) this game may have come a tad early for Detroit. New Orleans put up crazy numbers in the Superdome and will score a lot of points – the question is whether the Lions can hang with them. One critical area they must control is the penalty yards they give up – free yards to this Saints’ offense will murder them; apart from the Raiders, Detroit are the most penalised team in the NFL.
Detroit have some players back and that means it’s not entirely the same outfit that faced the Saints earlier in week 13. Aaron Berry is back, and Ndamukong Suh, Chris Houston and Louis Delmas will be playing against the Saints for the first time this season after being suspended and injured respectively.
The Lions have a decent defensive front, and will challenge the New Orleans offensive line, but that group has also been solid all season, with some nice veteran talent keeping Brees upright.
Brees has the luxury of considerable flair both downfield and catching out of the backfield. Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston, Robert Meachem and Darren Sproles are all capable of big plays and Lance Moore operates nicely in the slot. That’s a pretty potent offensive unit, but oddly perhaps the element that will keep them rolling is the ground game; the Saints rank 6th ypg on the ground and have a number of backs to rotate through, this allows Sean Payton to mix it up and keep defenses off-balance.
Megatron. The finest receiver in the NFL and someone I’m looking forward to watching tonight; his power, athleticism and skill, set this knackered old heart a-pounding. His ability to go up in double, even triple coverage and come down with the ball is almost magical. Stafford has been red hot down the stretch averaging 428 ypg. That all means Calvin Johnson will need to be double covered all night, which leaves the rest of the receiving corps with chances. Look for Pettigrew over the middle against some banged up linebackers.
Greg Williams will have to use all kinds of blitz packages to shake up Stafford, but the Saints aren’t a big sack unit; their greatest hope is the leaky Lions’ O line and the fact that Stafford may be trying to keep pace and will have to force some plays. The other weakness is Detroit’s running game, which is nicked up. Kevin Smith and Maurice Morris seem more effective catching out of the backfield and the Saints are solid enough against the run.
Giving up this many points in the post-season, and against an offense as potent as Detroit’s looks risky, but I’ll put my faith in the Saints.
Pick: Saints -10 @ 2.00; 100; Evens (Lads)
Pick: 1st TD Darren Sproles @ 9.0; 800; 8/1
Pick: Anytime TD Nate Burleson @ 3.25; 225; 9/4*
Pick: Buy Match TD Yardage @ 140
No Comments
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229 views
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Live NFL - Cincinnati at Houston
07 Jan 12 20:53
For those of you unfamiliar with my dubious previews, the bet against the spread is the main bet. The others, while I do bet them, are side bets. For the post-season, any starred pick is one I particularly like.
Cincinnati (9-7) at Houston (10-6)
Sky Sports, Saturday 9.30pm
An intriguing opening to the Wildcard Weekend, with two rookie triggermen facing off.
The Bengals’ pass rush has been quietly efficient (5th most in the NFL) and with T.J.Yates banged up, he’s not someone I’m entirely happy to rely upon, even in his limited role handing the ball off and making short throws to keep the chains moving.
In post-season games, a golden rule is to consider who’s next up if a QB is vulnerable, and next on the Houston depth chart after Yates is Jake Delhomme. The Texans are giving up too many sacks and Jake’s one hit away; at the very least I expect a giveaway or two with Yates under pressure.
The Bengals will have their hands full against a powerful ground attack, and Andre Johnson coming back makes the Houston O much less one dimensional. Still, Arian Foster will carry the Texans’ offense, and although the Bengals limited him when they met in the regular season, I’d expect more of him here against a run D that has given up yards on the ground recently.
Yates has Johnson going up against a Cincinnati secondary that has been patchy without Leon Hall and the Bengals’ safeties are poor in coverage – look for the Houston TEs to get involved. However, Johnson is likely to be a little rusty and it may be that the respect he demands will be just as important as his actual production.
Andy Dalton and the Cincinnati offense are a work in progress, but A.J. Green has been a revelation – unfortunately, Jonathan Joseph will sit on Green all day and that, coupled with Green’s bad shoulder, should mean that ‘the red rifle’ won’t find his premier receiver in much space. There are other options downfield, but not much beyond Simpson and Gresham.
The Texans can bring pressure off the edge with Brooks Reed and Connor Barwin and through the middle with J.J. Watt and Antonio Smith. Dalton will need help from Cedric Benson, and this is where I see the biggest breakdown in the Bengals’ hopes – the Texans are a tough defense and Benson hasn’t the talent to break it open, added to which he has started putting it on the deck. He’ll need to see the rock a lot to put up numbers, but by then Houston may have put the game away.
A telling stat? The Cincinnati Bengals have an 0-7 record versus opponents that have qualified for the postseason. Mind you, the Houston Texans got put away by the mighty Colts.
I don’t like the move off the key number, because I think this will be close (I took some -3 earlier in the week and it is still available, but it’s a little skinny now) but I’ll still give the points.
Pick: Texans -4 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11
Pick: 1st TD Arian Foster @ 6.0; 500; 5/1
Pick: Anytime TD Joel Dreesen @ 4.33; 333;10/3
Pick: Anytime TD James Casey @ 8.5; 750; 15/2
Pick: Andre Johnson Total Receiving Yards Under 67.5 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11
Pick: Total Match Sacks Over 4.5 @ 2.00; 100; Evens*
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A couple of random thoughts ...
Defense wins Super Bowls
Of the 45 teams to win Super Bowl titles, 38 had top-10 defenses.
Brady had better get some help, any help, from his awful defense. Spotting teams 20+ points in the post-season won’t work. The New England defense is last in yards given up in the AFC. Consider this too, the only two opponents on New England's schedule that finished above .500 were the Steelers and the Giants, and the Pats lost both those games.
Pick: Super Bowl winner Lay New England Patriots
I’m loving the Giants. I like their balance on offense – Manning has been clutch and Cruz is a devastating deep threat. The two headed running game can give them options on offense too. Their defense is coming together, particularly up front where Jason Pierre-Paul, Justin Tuck and the returning Osi Omenyura could severely limit opposition QBs. They look worth backing if only for trading purposes.
Pick: NFC Champs New York Giants @ 15.0; 1400 ;14/1
Pick: Super Bowl winner New York Giants @ 26; 2500; 25/1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NFL Record 2011
ATS
41 - 28 (59%)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MLB Record 2011
128-120 (+27.55pts)
Cincinnati (9-7) at Houston (10-6)
Sky Sports, Saturday 9.30pm
An intriguing opening to the Wildcard Weekend, with two rookie triggermen facing off.
The Bengals’ pass rush has been quietly efficient (5th most in the NFL) and with T.J.Yates banged up, he’s not someone I’m entirely happy to rely upon, even in his limited role handing the ball off and making short throws to keep the chains moving.
In post-season games, a golden rule is to consider who’s next up if a QB is vulnerable, and next on the Houston depth chart after Yates is Jake Delhomme. The Texans are giving up too many sacks and Jake’s one hit away; at the very least I expect a giveaway or two with Yates under pressure.
The Bengals will have their hands full against a powerful ground attack, and Andre Johnson coming back makes the Houston O much less one dimensional. Still, Arian Foster will carry the Texans’ offense, and although the Bengals limited him when they met in the regular season, I’d expect more of him here against a run D that has given up yards on the ground recently.
Yates has Johnson going up against a Cincinnati secondary that has been patchy without Leon Hall and the Bengals’ safeties are poor in coverage – look for the Houston TEs to get involved. However, Johnson is likely to be a little rusty and it may be that the respect he demands will be just as important as his actual production.
Andy Dalton and the Cincinnati offense are a work in progress, but A.J. Green has been a revelation – unfortunately, Jonathan Joseph will sit on Green all day and that, coupled with Green’s bad shoulder, should mean that ‘the red rifle’ won’t find his premier receiver in much space. There are other options downfield, but not much beyond Simpson and Gresham.
The Texans can bring pressure off the edge with Brooks Reed and Connor Barwin and through the middle with J.J. Watt and Antonio Smith. Dalton will need help from Cedric Benson, and this is where I see the biggest breakdown in the Bengals’ hopes – the Texans are a tough defense and Benson hasn’t the talent to break it open, added to which he has started putting it on the deck. He’ll need to see the rock a lot to put up numbers, but by then Houston may have put the game away.
A telling stat? The Cincinnati Bengals have an 0-7 record versus opponents that have qualified for the postseason. Mind you, the Houston Texans got put away by the mighty Colts.
I don’t like the move off the key number, because I think this will be close (I took some -3 earlier in the week and it is still available, but it’s a little skinny now) but I’ll still give the points.
Pick: Texans -4 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11
Pick: 1st TD Arian Foster @ 6.0; 500; 5/1
Pick: Anytime TD Joel Dreesen @ 4.33; 333;10/3
Pick: Anytime TD James Casey @ 8.5; 750; 15/2
Pick: Andre Johnson Total Receiving Yards Under 67.5 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11
Pick: Total Match Sacks Over 4.5 @ 2.00; 100; Evens*
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A couple of random thoughts ...
Defense wins Super Bowls
Of the 45 teams to win Super Bowl titles, 38 had top-10 defenses.
Brady had better get some help, any help, from his awful defense. Spotting teams 20+ points in the post-season won’t work. The New England defense is last in yards given up in the AFC. Consider this too, the only two opponents on New England's schedule that finished above .500 were the Steelers and the Giants, and the Pats lost both those games.
Pick: Super Bowl winner Lay New England Patriots
I’m loving the Giants. I like their balance on offense – Manning has been clutch and Cruz is a devastating deep threat. The two headed running game can give them options on offense too. Their defense is coming together, particularly up front where Jason Pierre-Paul, Justin Tuck and the returning Osi Omenyura could severely limit opposition QBs. They look worth backing if only for trading purposes.
Pick: NFC Champs New York Giants @ 15.0; 1400 ;14/1
Pick: Super Bowl winner New York Giants @ 26; 2500; 25/1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NFL Record 2011
ATS
41 - 28 (59%)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MLB Record 2011
128-120 (+27.55pts)
1 Comments
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222 views
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NFL Season's Bets Review. Playoffs & Super Bowl
03 Jan 12 10:40
I thought I’d revisit the season preview to see how we stand going into the playoffs.
Recommended bets - 8th September 2011
NFC East
Pick: Redskins Over 6.5 Wins @ 2.62 (Lost)
Pick: Eagles @ 1.91 (Lost)
NFC West
Pick: Cardinals @ 4.00 (Lost)
NFC North
Pick: Packers @ 1.53 (Won)
NFC South
Pick: Saints @ 2.38 (Won)
Pick: Straight Forecast NO/Atl @ 3.5 (Won)
AFC East
Pick: Patriots Over 11.5 Wins @ 2.00 (Won)
Pick: Straight Forecast NE/NYJ @ 1.95 (Won)
AFC West
Pick: Straight Forecast SD/Den @ 7.5 (Lost)
AFC North
Pick: Steelers @ 1.91 (Won)
Pick: Dual Forecast Pit/Bal @ 1.3 (Won)
AFC South
Pick: Texans @ 2.05 (Won)
Pick: Texans Over 8.5 Wins @ 1.73 (Won)
The rest ...
I'll lay this lot back (to varying degrees) to give me a surprisingly nice looking post-season!
AFC Champs
Patriots @ 4.33 (2.2 to Lay)
NFC Champs
Packers @ 4.5 (1.94 to Lay)
Super Bowl
Packers @ 8 (3.1 to Lay)
--------------------------------------------------------------------
For those of you who want a laugh at the original:
NFC East
My team, the Redskins, will finish last, but it’s not all bad news. Unencumbered, in all senses, by Haynesworth, Shanny might just have some magic dust left, and while it isn’t going to be the Denver story quite yet, it won’t be as bad as some think. The Skins under Grossman aren’t going to gash offences, but I like the look of Hightower (and his rookie back up) in the Mike/Kyle Shanahan zone blocking scheme and resigning Moss was huge. The defense was beginning to come together towards the end of last season.
Pick: Redskins Over 6.5 Wins @ 2.62
The Giants looked horrible pre-season and I get the feeling this is it for Eli Manning – it’s not a career buster, so much as a career definer. There’s rebuilding on both sides of the ball and while the talented pass rush is going to be difficult to deny, I have reservations about the offense and if Bradshaw begins putting it on the floor again, Eli might buckle under the strain: they’re also riddled with injuries.
That means the division comes down to Dallas and Philadelphia.
I never like the whole ‘dream team’ shtick. That means a lot of battling egos and football doesn’t benefit from that kind of environment. I’m not entirely sold on their defense which is bursting with talent, but has to come together quickly. Vick may struggle to reproduce his form last year (we saw a drop off as the season went on) and with his game, I always get the feeling disaster isn’t far away. Vince Young awaits.
Does that mean Dallas are in? Well, no. I don’t think they’ve enough depth on offense. Romo’s not a dynamic QB that outthinks the opposition in clutch situations: he needs help. The receiving corps has talent, but it’s thin and with a shaky O line, Romo may struggle. If Felix Jones and Tashard Choice can get it going, Dallas can challenge Philadelphia, but there too many unknowable unknowns that we just can’t know.
Pick: Eagles @ 1.91
NFC West
It’s St Louis and Arizona here. San Francisco and Seattle haven’t the firepower to be taken seriously as challengers. The 49ers haven’t got a QB (I’ve stashed Kaepernick in a couple of my fantasy leagues) and the Hawks let Hasselbeck split for the Titans.
I’m going to take Arizona – Kolb has the skill set (and the money!) to emerge as a genuine franchise QB. Beanie Wells’ elevation is no bad thing and Larry Fitzgerald leads a bunch of receivers who may be under-valued.
Most of all, it’s the strength of schedule that attracts me at the price. Arizona benefits from a fixture list that should mean they shade the Rams – and I like the price.
Pick: Cardinals @ 4.00
NFC North
Packers.
There’s talk of the Lions, and Stafford is a fine player, but he’s just too brittle – he’ll go down again. They will also develop their defense, but Green Bay will take the division.
The rest is a crap shoot, so there’s little value at this stage.
Pick: Packers @ 1.53
NFC South
The Bucs aren’t quite there yet and have a tough schedule. The same is true of the Panthers, only more so – they have an undeniably talented rookie under centre, and perhaps the toughest schedule in the NFL.
So we’re left with the Saints and the Falcons. Atlanta aren’t going to stop much, but they should score a bucket load, as Ryan puts it up for White and his buddies 30+ times. It’s that first element though, that makes me think the Saints have the edge – just. New Orleans’ D was ranked 4th in the NFL and that, coupled with the explosive offense, should see them home.
Pick: Saints @ 2.38
Pick: Straight Forecast NO/Atl @ 3.5
AFC East
Neither Miami nor Buffalo have the quarterback power to compete, so that leaves New England and the New York Jets.
New England, if they can successfully tame some of the more challenging characters they have recruited, can address their only obvious weakness; the defensive line. I believe the likelihood is that they will at least make progress on this front, and so I see them taking the division ahead of the Jets, who are perhaps in the reverse position – I’m not convinced by Sanchez and their redzone play.
Pick: Patriots Over 11.5 Wins @ 2.00
Pick: Straight Forecast NE/NYJ @ 1.95
AFC West
San Diego will score a lot because they always do (Rivers pulling the strings for Vincent Jackson, Malcolm Floyd and Antonio Gates, with Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert on the ground, is about as solid as it gets) and the feeling is they were a decent special teams unit away from a run at the whole thing last year. It’ll be interesting to see the effect of the lockout, but they should take it.
The really interesting bet here is the Broncos in the rest of the pack. A healthy Denver defense (their Achilles heal) under John Fox may just jump over the rest of the runners, although their schedule is brutal.
The Bolts are too short.
Pick: Straight Forecast SD/Den @ 7.5
AFC North
Colt McCoy and Andy Dalton aren’t getting it done.
As usual, it will be the two big beasts battling it out and I give Pittsburgh the edge, just. Both are formidable defensive units, although the Steelers need to address their secondary, but the Steelers can get it done in clutch situations on offense, whereas Baltimore are prone to stumble when the pressure’s on – most notably against their great rivals.
Pick: Steelers @ 1.91
Pick: Dual Forecast Pit/Bal @ 1.3 (possibly the easiest 30% return you’ll ever see)
AFC South
Manning is injured, Hasselbeck will be, and Blaine Gabbert is a new boy.
It’s Houston!
Pick: Texans @ 2.05
Pick: Texans Over 8.5 Wins @ 1.73
The rest ...
AFC Champs: Patriots @ 4.33
NFC Champs: Packers @ 4.5
Super Bowl : Packers @ 8
Recommended bets - 8th September 2011
NFC East
Pick: Redskins Over 6.5 Wins @ 2.62 (Lost)
Pick: Eagles @ 1.91 (Lost)
NFC West
Pick: Cardinals @ 4.00 (Lost)
NFC North
Pick: Packers @ 1.53 (Won)
NFC South
Pick: Saints @ 2.38 (Won)
Pick: Straight Forecast NO/Atl @ 3.5 (Won)
AFC East
Pick: Patriots Over 11.5 Wins @ 2.00 (Won)
Pick: Straight Forecast NE/NYJ @ 1.95 (Won)
AFC West
Pick: Straight Forecast SD/Den @ 7.5 (Lost)
AFC North
Pick: Steelers @ 1.91 (Won)
Pick: Dual Forecast Pit/Bal @ 1.3 (Won)
AFC South
Pick: Texans @ 2.05 (Won)
Pick: Texans Over 8.5 Wins @ 1.73 (Won)
The rest ...
I'll lay this lot back (to varying degrees) to give me a surprisingly nice looking post-season!
AFC Champs
Patriots @ 4.33 (2.2 to Lay)
NFC Champs
Packers @ 4.5 (1.94 to Lay)
Super Bowl
Packers @ 8 (3.1 to Lay)
--------------------------------------------------------------------
For those of you who want a laugh at the original:
NFC East
My team, the Redskins, will finish last, but it’s not all bad news. Unencumbered, in all senses, by Haynesworth, Shanny might just have some magic dust left, and while it isn’t going to be the Denver story quite yet, it won’t be as bad as some think. The Skins under Grossman aren’t going to gash offences, but I like the look of Hightower (and his rookie back up) in the Mike/Kyle Shanahan zone blocking scheme and resigning Moss was huge. The defense was beginning to come together towards the end of last season.
Pick: Redskins Over 6.5 Wins @ 2.62
The Giants looked horrible pre-season and I get the feeling this is it for Eli Manning – it’s not a career buster, so much as a career definer. There’s rebuilding on both sides of the ball and while the talented pass rush is going to be difficult to deny, I have reservations about the offense and if Bradshaw begins putting it on the floor again, Eli might buckle under the strain: they’re also riddled with injuries.
That means the division comes down to Dallas and Philadelphia.
I never like the whole ‘dream team’ shtick. That means a lot of battling egos and football doesn’t benefit from that kind of environment. I’m not entirely sold on their defense which is bursting with talent, but has to come together quickly. Vick may struggle to reproduce his form last year (we saw a drop off as the season went on) and with his game, I always get the feeling disaster isn’t far away. Vince Young awaits.
Does that mean Dallas are in? Well, no. I don’t think they’ve enough depth on offense. Romo’s not a dynamic QB that outthinks the opposition in clutch situations: he needs help. The receiving corps has talent, but it’s thin and with a shaky O line, Romo may struggle. If Felix Jones and Tashard Choice can get it going, Dallas can challenge Philadelphia, but there too many unknowable unknowns that we just can’t know.
Pick: Eagles @ 1.91
NFC West
It’s St Louis and Arizona here. San Francisco and Seattle haven’t the firepower to be taken seriously as challengers. The 49ers haven’t got a QB (I’ve stashed Kaepernick in a couple of my fantasy leagues) and the Hawks let Hasselbeck split for the Titans.
I’m going to take Arizona – Kolb has the skill set (and the money!) to emerge as a genuine franchise QB. Beanie Wells’ elevation is no bad thing and Larry Fitzgerald leads a bunch of receivers who may be under-valued.
Most of all, it’s the strength of schedule that attracts me at the price. Arizona benefits from a fixture list that should mean they shade the Rams – and I like the price.
Pick: Cardinals @ 4.00
NFC North
Packers.
There’s talk of the Lions, and Stafford is a fine player, but he’s just too brittle – he’ll go down again. They will also develop their defense, but Green Bay will take the division.
The rest is a crap shoot, so there’s little value at this stage.
Pick: Packers @ 1.53
NFC South
The Bucs aren’t quite there yet and have a tough schedule. The same is true of the Panthers, only more so – they have an undeniably talented rookie under centre, and perhaps the toughest schedule in the NFL.
So we’re left with the Saints and the Falcons. Atlanta aren’t going to stop much, but they should score a bucket load, as Ryan puts it up for White and his buddies 30+ times. It’s that first element though, that makes me think the Saints have the edge – just. New Orleans’ D was ranked 4th in the NFL and that, coupled with the explosive offense, should see them home.
Pick: Saints @ 2.38
Pick: Straight Forecast NO/Atl @ 3.5
AFC East
Neither Miami nor Buffalo have the quarterback power to compete, so that leaves New England and the New York Jets.
New England, if they can successfully tame some of the more challenging characters they have recruited, can address their only obvious weakness; the defensive line. I believe the likelihood is that they will at least make progress on this front, and so I see them taking the division ahead of the Jets, who are perhaps in the reverse position – I’m not convinced by Sanchez and their redzone play.
Pick: Patriots Over 11.5 Wins @ 2.00
Pick: Straight Forecast NE/NYJ @ 1.95
AFC West
San Diego will score a lot because they always do (Rivers pulling the strings for Vincent Jackson, Malcolm Floyd and Antonio Gates, with Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert on the ground, is about as solid as it gets) and the feeling is they were a decent special teams unit away from a run at the whole thing last year. It’ll be interesting to see the effect of the lockout, but they should take it.
The really interesting bet here is the Broncos in the rest of the pack. A healthy Denver defense (their Achilles heal) under John Fox may just jump over the rest of the runners, although their schedule is brutal.
The Bolts are too short.
Pick: Straight Forecast SD/Den @ 7.5
AFC North
Colt McCoy and Andy Dalton aren’t getting it done.
As usual, it will be the two big beasts battling it out and I give Pittsburgh the edge, just. Both are formidable defensive units, although the Steelers need to address their secondary, but the Steelers can get it done in clutch situations on offense, whereas Baltimore are prone to stumble when the pressure’s on – most notably against their great rivals.
Pick: Steelers @ 1.91
Pick: Dual Forecast Pit/Bal @ 1.3 (possibly the easiest 30% return you’ll ever see)
AFC South
Manning is injured, Hasselbeck will be, and Blaine Gabbert is a new boy.
It’s Houston!
Pick: Texans @ 2.05
Pick: Texans Over 8.5 Wins @ 1.73
The rest ...
AFC Champs: Patriots @ 4.33
NFC Champs: Packers @ 4.5
Super Bowl : Packers @ 8
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Live NFL - Kansas at Denver
01 Jan 12 19:37
Kansas City (6-9) at Denver (8-7)
Sky Sports, 9.15pm
I’ve been ripping Tebow all season, so I can hardly stop now.
He was horrible last week and now the Chiefs, who have some real talent on the defensive side of the ball, arrive toting the Broncos' season starter and subsequent reject Kyle Orton, and a coach keen to take the Kansas job permanently.
Most tellingly though, are the troubles for Denver on defense. The loss of Brian Dawkins was bad enough, but the pass rush has started to falter and with Quinton Carter out now too, the Broncos will be starting two reserve safeties. They have struggled against the run and I expect Romeo Crennel to be creative attacking the Broncos front with Thomas Jones and Dexter McCluster in order to get Orton into position to ram it down the throat of the team that cut him a few weeks ago.
Tebow struggled against the Bills, who play man coverage, and the bad news is that the Chiefs play that same coverage, although they play it rather better. Tim will have to look for big plays, and that’s what got him into trouble against Buffalo.
I’ll take the points, with revenge in the thin air at Mile High.
Pick: Chiefs +2.5 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11
Pick: 1st TD Thomas Jones @ 9.0; 800; 8/1
Pick: Anytime TD Tim Tebow @ 2.00; 100; Evens
Sky Sports, 9.15pm
I’ve been ripping Tebow all season, so I can hardly stop now.
He was horrible last week and now the Chiefs, who have some real talent on the defensive side of the ball, arrive toting the Broncos' season starter and subsequent reject Kyle Orton, and a coach keen to take the Kansas job permanently.
Most tellingly though, are the troubles for Denver on defense. The loss of Brian Dawkins was bad enough, but the pass rush has started to falter and with Quinton Carter out now too, the Broncos will be starting two reserve safeties. They have struggled against the run and I expect Romeo Crennel to be creative attacking the Broncos front with Thomas Jones and Dexter McCluster in order to get Orton into position to ram it down the throat of the team that cut him a few weeks ago.
Tebow struggled against the Bills, who play man coverage, and the bad news is that the Chiefs play that same coverage, although they play it rather better. Tim will have to look for big plays, and that’s what got him into trouble against Buffalo.
I’ll take the points, with revenge in the thin air at Mile High.
Pick: Chiefs +2.5 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11
Pick: 1st TD Thomas Jones @ 9.0; 800; 8/1
Pick: Anytime TD Tim Tebow @ 2.00; 100; Evens
1 Comments
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Live NFL - NY Jets at Miami
01 Jan 12 15:18
NY Jets (8-7) at Miami (5-10)
Sky Sports, 6pm
Rex Ryan is a blowhard, Sanchez is a bust, Greene can’t get it going in the ‘ground and pound’ ethos and the fabled Jets’ D ain’t really all that.
So it’s New York for me.
Miami have surged in the second half of the season, going 8-1 ATS and 5-4 SU, but they’ve nothing to play for here and the Jets have to win to have a chance of progressing. Crucially, Reggie Bush (who has emerged as an unlikely featured back) is out and Daniel Thomas presents nothing like the challenge for a less than stellar run D.
Matt Moore has emerged as a reliable, if uninspiring QB, but today the absence of the fins’ left tackle, Jake Long, will mean his job should be considerably more difficult, even against a Jets’ pass rush that doesn’t get home too often; expect the Jets to blitz the hell out of Moore.
It’s Brandon Marshall’s turn to take a trip to Revis island and although Marshall has shown some form of late, Revis will win out.
For some obscure reason, Brian Schottenheimer had Sanchez throwing the ball all day long last week. Sanchez is fragile at the best of times, and at the moment he looks hurried and indecisive and even more worryingly, the word is that Ryan is losing faith in his triggerman. New York must take the pressure off Sanchez and establish the run, especially as the Miami pass rush has had some success and Cameron Wake, Karlos Dansby and Jason Taylor in his farewell game could provide a real challenge.
Greene must get rolling, and he’s going up against a tough run D, but unless Greene and LT can bust through this strong linebacking corps, the Jets may struggle. I suspect (and hope!) that Schottenheimer will balance the attack and use the pass judiciously (and avoid Vontae Davis downfield) and instead look to exploit the middle of the field where Yeremiah Bell and Reshad Jones can struggle in coverage – Dustin Keller should get some looks.
This looks like it'll be close, but I give the Jets the slight edge, so I’ll take the points.
Pick: Jets +3 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11
Pick: 1st TD Plaxico Burress @ 9.5; 850; 17/2
Pick: Anytime TD Dustin Keller @ 2.75; 175; 7/4
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NFL Record 2011
ATS
39 - 28 (58%)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MLB Record 2011
128-120 (+27.55pts)
Sky Sports, 6pm
Rex Ryan is a blowhard, Sanchez is a bust, Greene can’t get it going in the ‘ground and pound’ ethos and the fabled Jets’ D ain’t really all that.
So it’s New York for me.
Miami have surged in the second half of the season, going 8-1 ATS and 5-4 SU, but they’ve nothing to play for here and the Jets have to win to have a chance of progressing. Crucially, Reggie Bush (who has emerged as an unlikely featured back) is out and Daniel Thomas presents nothing like the challenge for a less than stellar run D.
Matt Moore has emerged as a reliable, if uninspiring QB, but today the absence of the fins’ left tackle, Jake Long, will mean his job should be considerably more difficult, even against a Jets’ pass rush that doesn’t get home too often; expect the Jets to blitz the hell out of Moore.
It’s Brandon Marshall’s turn to take a trip to Revis island and although Marshall has shown some form of late, Revis will win out.
For some obscure reason, Brian Schottenheimer had Sanchez throwing the ball all day long last week. Sanchez is fragile at the best of times, and at the moment he looks hurried and indecisive and even more worryingly, the word is that Ryan is losing faith in his triggerman. New York must take the pressure off Sanchez and establish the run, especially as the Miami pass rush has had some success and Cameron Wake, Karlos Dansby and Jason Taylor in his farewell game could provide a real challenge.
Greene must get rolling, and he’s going up against a tough run D, but unless Greene and LT can bust through this strong linebacking corps, the Jets may struggle. I suspect (and hope!) that Schottenheimer will balance the attack and use the pass judiciously (and avoid Vontae Davis downfield) and instead look to exploit the middle of the field where Yeremiah Bell and Reshad Jones can struggle in coverage – Dustin Keller should get some looks.
This looks like it'll be close, but I give the Jets the slight edge, so I’ll take the points.
Pick: Jets +3 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11
Pick: 1st TD Plaxico Burress @ 9.5; 850; 17/2
Pick: Anytime TD Dustin Keller @ 2.75; 175; 7/4
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NFL Record 2011
ATS
39 - 28 (58%)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MLB Record 2011
128-120 (+27.55pts)
No Comments
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298 views
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Live NFL - Philadelphia at Dallas
24 Dec 11 18:56
Philadelphia (6-8) at Dallas (8-6)
Sky Sports, Christmas Eve, 9.15pm
If the Giants have beaten the Jets earlier in the day, the Eagles are done for the season; if not, well, I think they come out on top here.
The Philadelphia run is a big threat tonight; obviously Vick is always a danger when he scrambles, but LeSean McCoy has been ripping it up of late and will test a stout Cowboys’ run defense, this means that if they get it going on the ground, when Vick chooses to attack Dallas on the back end, players may have committed further up field – Vick went 21/28 for 279yds and 2 TD in week 8 and if he puts up those numbers again, the Cowboys will struggle.
That’s not to say Dallas is on the back foot here, they’re slightly favoured at home and that’s not a surprise with the weapons at Romo’s disposal. However, the Cowboys must balance the offense out by establishing the run, and with Jones dinged up, that may be a problem, because the Eagles’ pass rush seems to be building some momentum and Dallas are not affording Romo as much protection as he liked; once again, Witten will be vital as an outlet when the hammer’s down, but if Romo can get it out, he still has Robinson, Austin and Bryant who can take advantage of the Eagles’ questionable safeties.
If the Jets win, roll with Philly; if not, take Dallas.
Pick: 1st TD Michael Vick @ 17; 1600; 16/1
Pick: Anytime TD Jason Witten @ 2.6; 160; 8/5
MERRY CHRISTMAS!
Sky Sports, Christmas Eve, 9.15pm
If the Giants have beaten the Jets earlier in the day, the Eagles are done for the season; if not, well, I think they come out on top here.
The Philadelphia run is a big threat tonight; obviously Vick is always a danger when he scrambles, but LeSean McCoy has been ripping it up of late and will test a stout Cowboys’ run defense, this means that if they get it going on the ground, when Vick chooses to attack Dallas on the back end, players may have committed further up field – Vick went 21/28 for 279yds and 2 TD in week 8 and if he puts up those numbers again, the Cowboys will struggle.
That’s not to say Dallas is on the back foot here, they’re slightly favoured at home and that’s not a surprise with the weapons at Romo’s disposal. However, the Cowboys must balance the offense out by establishing the run, and with Jones dinged up, that may be a problem, because the Eagles’ pass rush seems to be building some momentum and Dallas are not affording Romo as much protection as he liked; once again, Witten will be vital as an outlet when the hammer’s down, but if Romo can get it out, he still has Robinson, Austin and Bryant who can take advantage of the Eagles’ questionable safeties.
If the Jets win, roll with Philly; if not, take Dallas.
Pick: 1st TD Michael Vick @ 17; 1600; 16/1
Pick: Anytime TD Jason Witten @ 2.6; 160; 8/5
MERRY CHRISTMAS!
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Live NFL - NY Giants at NY Jets
24 Dec 11 16:38
NY Giants (7-7) at NY Jets (8-6)
Sky Sports, Christmas Eve, 6pm
I praise Eli Manning ... and then he performs like he’s only just met the pigskin, and the Giants are beaten by my Redskins. Bizarre.
He was his old bad self, often looking hurried and making bad decisions to get picked three times. That makes things dangerous today, because the Jets can pressure him (13 sacks L4) and the coverage downfield may see him forcing the ball in. There’s no Ballard underneath, and the Giants’ running game isn’t sufficiently reliable to routinely relieve the pressure on their QB, so there’s a distinct risk that the G-Men could get bogged down on offense.
Or ...
Last week was an aberration and Manning and his team will bounce back with the post-season on the line. The Giants must win the NFC East to progress and the formidable Jets secondary is missing Jim Leonhard - the safeties can be attacked. Ahmad Bradshaw’s value this week may not be so much running, as replacing Ballard as that safety valve, catching out of the backfield. Nicks will likely find himself on Revis island and Manningham is limited by injury, but I like Victor Cruz today. The Giants rank third ypg passing and with the Jets keying on stopping the pass, Bradshaw and Jacobs may also find some room.
The Jets will have to deal with Jason Pierre-Paul and Justin Tuck and protect Sanchez, who has been sacked seven times in the last two games, but really they should leave it to their running game to open up the Giants, whose front seven has struggled to contain the run all season. The only option for Perry Fewell is to pack the box and give Sanchez no option but to air it out and then rely upon the pressure up front to force him into mistakes.
Or ...
Shonn Green goes hog wild and as he tramples the Giants’ front, eating up the clock and keeping Manning off the field, while opening up the pass for Sanche, who hits Burress, Holmes and Keller; they put the points up, and the Jets’ D does the rest as the G-Men play catch up.
This will be a close, ill-tempered affair after all the trash talking and with so much on the line for both teams. Consistency has been a problem for both sides, but my suspicion is that Manning and the Giants are slightly more clutch than Sanchez and the Jets, so I’ll take the points.
Pick: Giants +3 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11
Pick: 1st TD Victor Cruz @ 10; 900; 9/1
Pick: Anytime TD Dustin Keller @ 2.75; 175; 7/4
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NFL Record 2011
ATS
38 - 27 (58%)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MLB Record 2011
128-120 (+27.55pts)
Sky Sports, Christmas Eve, 6pm
I praise Eli Manning ... and then he performs like he’s only just met the pigskin, and the Giants are beaten by my Redskins. Bizarre.
He was his old bad self, often looking hurried and making bad decisions to get picked three times. That makes things dangerous today, because the Jets can pressure him (13 sacks L4) and the coverage downfield may see him forcing the ball in. There’s no Ballard underneath, and the Giants’ running game isn’t sufficiently reliable to routinely relieve the pressure on their QB, so there’s a distinct risk that the G-Men could get bogged down on offense.
Or ...
Last week was an aberration and Manning and his team will bounce back with the post-season on the line. The Giants must win the NFC East to progress and the formidable Jets secondary is missing Jim Leonhard - the safeties can be attacked. Ahmad Bradshaw’s value this week may not be so much running, as replacing Ballard as that safety valve, catching out of the backfield. Nicks will likely find himself on Revis island and Manningham is limited by injury, but I like Victor Cruz today. The Giants rank third ypg passing and with the Jets keying on stopping the pass, Bradshaw and Jacobs may also find some room.
The Jets will have to deal with Jason Pierre-Paul and Justin Tuck and protect Sanchez, who has been sacked seven times in the last two games, but really they should leave it to their running game to open up the Giants, whose front seven has struggled to contain the run all season. The only option for Perry Fewell is to pack the box and give Sanchez no option but to air it out and then rely upon the pressure up front to force him into mistakes.
Or ...
Shonn Green goes hog wild and as he tramples the Giants’ front, eating up the clock and keeping Manning off the field, while opening up the pass for Sanche, who hits Burress, Holmes and Keller; they put the points up, and the Jets’ D does the rest as the G-Men play catch up.
This will be a close, ill-tempered affair after all the trash talking and with so much on the line for both teams. Consistency has been a problem for both sides, but my suspicion is that Manning and the Giants are slightly more clutch than Sanchez and the Jets, so I’ll take the points.
Pick: Giants +3 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11
Pick: 1st TD Victor Cruz @ 10; 900; 9/1
Pick: Anytime TD Dustin Keller @ 2.75; 175; 7/4
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NFL Record 2011
ATS
38 - 27 (58%)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MLB Record 2011
128-120 (+27.55pts)
No Comments
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Live NFL - Houston at Indianapolis 1.20am
22 Dec 11 18:34
Houston (10-4) at Indianapolis (1-13)
Sky Sports, December 23rd, 1.20am
This one isn’t very complex; the Texans are hobbled under centre and downfield, but have a powerful run offense. The Colts are just hobbled; Orlovsky is an upgrade from what went before, but the Colts are going up against one of the toughest defenses in the NFL.
Houston will smash it up with the run against a poor, undersized front seven (which should help neutralise a dangerous Indy pass rush) and occasionally take conservative passes underneath, while the Colts will try to hang on and make something happen on the other side of the ball. It shouldn't – give the points.
Pick: Texans -6.5 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11
Pick: 1st TD Adrian Foster @ 4.5; 350; 7/2
Pick: Anytime TD Joel Dreesen @ 2.8; 180; 9/5
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NFL Record 2011
ATS
38 - 26 (59%)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MLB Record 2011
128-120 (+27.55pts)
Sky Sports, December 23rd, 1.20am
This one isn’t very complex; the Texans are hobbled under centre and downfield, but have a powerful run offense. The Colts are just hobbled; Orlovsky is an upgrade from what went before, but the Colts are going up against one of the toughest defenses in the NFL.
Houston will smash it up with the run against a poor, undersized front seven (which should help neutralise a dangerous Indy pass rush) and occasionally take conservative passes underneath, while the Colts will try to hang on and make something happen on the other side of the ball. It shouldn't – give the points.
Pick: Texans -6.5 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11
Pick: 1st TD Adrian Foster @ 4.5; 350; 7/2
Pick: Anytime TD Joel Dreesen @ 2.8; 180; 9/5
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NFL Record 2011
ATS
38 - 26 (59%)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MLB Record 2011
128-120 (+27.55pts)
No Comments
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704 views
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Live NFL - Pittsburgh at San Francisco 1.30am
19 Dec 11 23:05
Pittsburgh (10-3) at San Francisco (10-3)
ESPN, December 20th, 1.30am
Does Roethlisberger go? I think he will and I like Pittsburgh in this one.
IF HE DOESN'T, DON'T MAKE THE BET.
I’ll try to lay it out in brief, as I know these late night games aren’t favourite reading material!
It’s the defenses that will slug it out tonight – but the 49ers may be regressing having lost two of the last three (the continued absence of Patrick Willis is a blow) and the Steelers seem to be getting stronger.
The San Francisco D has astonishing numbers against the run (not a single rushing TD and no-one has taken them for 100 yards) but I expect Pittsburgh to throw everything at the niners’ front seven to at least check them (they will get after Ben like maniacs, especially with a sub-par Steelers’ O line) before throwing it to attack the home side’s safeties, who can be exploited by the speed of the Steelers’ wideouts. Look for a couple of big plays downfield.
It’ll be a delicate balance, because everyone in the backfield will be trying to keep Roethlisberger upright (there’ll be plenty of two TE sets and Ben in the shotgun) but it’s the sort of tactical change up typical in the NFL.
Pittsburgh will be without Harrison after his outrageous cheap shot, but Woodley should be back and they can pressure Alex Smith who hasn’t the speed of thought, or release, to cope with a collapsing pocket.
This Steeler D doesn’t take the ball away much, or get many sacks, but that has begun to come around and they can exploit a dubious SF O line who are letting Smith get sacked much too much - and tonight his blind side may be missing Joe Staley. Frank Gore is dinged up and the Steelers are tough to run on, so he should be neutralised and the 49ers don’t have the options deep available to Mike Tomlin.
Pick: Steelers +3 @ 1.83; -120; 5/6
Pick: 1st TD Antonio Brown @ 11; 1000; 10/1
Pick: Anytime TD mike Wallace @ 2.1; 110; 11/10
Pick: Total Match Sacks Over 5.5 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11
ESPN, December 20th, 1.30am
Does Roethlisberger go? I think he will and I like Pittsburgh in this one.
IF HE DOESN'T, DON'T MAKE THE BET.
I’ll try to lay it out in brief, as I know these late night games aren’t favourite reading material!
It’s the defenses that will slug it out tonight – but the 49ers may be regressing having lost two of the last three (the continued absence of Patrick Willis is a blow) and the Steelers seem to be getting stronger.
The San Francisco D has astonishing numbers against the run (not a single rushing TD and no-one has taken them for 100 yards) but I expect Pittsburgh to throw everything at the niners’ front seven to at least check them (they will get after Ben like maniacs, especially with a sub-par Steelers’ O line) before throwing it to attack the home side’s safeties, who can be exploited by the speed of the Steelers’ wideouts. Look for a couple of big plays downfield.
It’ll be a delicate balance, because everyone in the backfield will be trying to keep Roethlisberger upright (there’ll be plenty of two TE sets and Ben in the shotgun) but it’s the sort of tactical change up typical in the NFL.
Pittsburgh will be without Harrison after his outrageous cheap shot, but Woodley should be back and they can pressure Alex Smith who hasn’t the speed of thought, or release, to cope with a collapsing pocket.
This Steeler D doesn’t take the ball away much, or get many sacks, but that has begun to come around and they can exploit a dubious SF O line who are letting Smith get sacked much too much - and tonight his blind side may be missing Joe Staley. Frank Gore is dinged up and the Steelers are tough to run on, so he should be neutralised and the 49ers don’t have the options deep available to Mike Tomlin.
Pick: Steelers +3 @ 1.83; -120; 5/6
Pick: 1st TD Antonio Brown @ 11; 1000; 10/1
Pick: Anytime TD mike Wallace @ 2.1; 110; 11/10
Pick: Total Match Sacks Over 5.5 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11
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