orioles

I thought I’d revisit the season preview to see how we stand going into the playoffs.

Recommended bets - 8th September 2011

NFC East

Pick: Redskins Over 6.5 Wins @ 2.62 (Lost)
Pick: Eagles @ 1.91 (Lost)

NFC West

Pick: Cardinals @ 4.00 (Lost)

NFC North

Pick: Packers @ 1.53 (Won)

NFC South

Pick: Saints @ 2.38 (Won)
Pick: Straight Forecast NO/Atl @ 3.5 (Won)

AFC East

Pick: Patriots Over 11.5 Wins @ 2.00 (Won)
Pick: Straight Forecast NE/NYJ @ 1.95 (Won)

AFC West

Pick: Straight Forecast SD/Den @ 7.5 (Lost)

AFC North

Pick: Steelers @ 1.91 (Won)
Pick: Dual Forecast Pit/Bal @ 1.3 (Won)

AFC South

Pick: Texans @ 2.05 (Won)
Pick: Texans Over 8.5 Wins @ 1.73 (Won)

The rest ...

I'll lay this lot back (to varying degrees) to give me a surprisingly nice looking post-season!

AFC Champs

Patriots @ 4.33 (2.2 to Lay)

NFC Champs

Packers @ 4.5 (1.94 to Lay)

Super Bowl

Packers @ 8 (3.1 to Lay)

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For those of you who want a laugh at the original:

NFC East

My team, the Redskins, will finish last, but it’s not all bad news. Unencumbered, in all senses, by Haynesworth, Shanny might just have some magic dust left, and while it isn’t going to be the Denver story quite yet, it won’t be as bad as some think.  The Skins under Grossman aren’t going to gash offences, but I like the look of Hightower (and his rookie back up) in the Mike/Kyle Shanahan zone blocking scheme and resigning Moss was huge. The defense was beginning to come together towards the end of last season.

Pick: Redskins Over 6.5 Wins @ 2.62

The Giants looked horrible pre-season and I get the feeling this is it for Eli Manning – it’s not a career buster, so much as a career definer. There’s rebuilding on both sides of the ball and while the talented pass rush is going to be difficult to deny, I have reservations about the offense and if Bradshaw begins putting it on the floor again, Eli might buckle under the strain: they’re also riddled with injuries.

That means the division comes down to Dallas and Philadelphia.

I never like the whole ‘dream team’ shtick. That means a lot of battling egos and football doesn’t benefit from that kind of environment. I’m not entirely sold on their defense which is bursting with talent, but has to come together quickly.  Vick may struggle to reproduce his form last year (we saw a drop off as the season went on) and with his game, I always get the feeling disaster isn’t far away. Vince Young awaits.

Does that mean Dallas are in? Well, no. I don’t think they’ve enough depth on offense. Romo’s not a dynamic QB that outthinks the opposition in clutch situations: he needs help. The receiving corps has talent, but it’s thin and with a shaky O line, Romo may struggle. If Felix Jones and Tashard Choice can get it going, Dallas can challenge Philadelphia, but there too many unknowable unknowns that we just can’t know.

Pick: Eagles @ 1.91

NFC West

It’s St Louis and Arizona here. San Francisco and Seattle haven’t the firepower to be taken seriously as challengers. The 49ers haven’t got a QB (I’ve stashed Kaepernick in a couple of my fantasy leagues) and the Hawks let Hasselbeck split for the Titans.

I’m going to take Arizona – Kolb has the skill set (and the money!) to emerge as a genuine franchise QB. Beanie Wells’ elevation is no bad thing and Larry Fitzgerald leads a bunch of receivers who may be under-valued.

Most of all, it’s the strength of schedule that attracts me at the price. Arizona benefits from a fixture list that should mean they shade the Rams – and I like the price.

Pick: Cardinals @ 4.00

NFC North

Packers.

There’s talk of the Lions, and Stafford is a fine player, but he’s just too brittle – he’ll go down again. They will also develop their defense, but Green Bay will take the division.

The rest is a crap shoot, so there’s little value at this stage.

Pick: Packers @ 1.53

NFC South

The Bucs aren’t quite there yet and have a tough schedule. The same is true of the Panthers, only more so – they have an undeniably talented rookie under centre, and perhaps the toughest schedule in the NFL.

So we’re left with the Saints and the Falcons. Atlanta aren’t going to stop much, but they should score a bucket load, as Ryan puts it up for White and his buddies 30+ times. It’s that first element though, that makes me think the Saints have the edge – just. New Orleans’ D was ranked 4th in the NFL and that, coupled with the explosive offense, should see them home.

Pick: Saints @ 2.38
Pick: Straight Forecast NO/Atl @ 3.5

AFC East

Neither Miami nor Buffalo have the quarterback power to compete, so that leaves New England and the New York Jets.

New England, if they can successfully tame some of the more challenging characters they have recruited, can address their only obvious weakness; the defensive line.   I believe the likelihood is that they will at least make progress on this front, and so I see them taking the division ahead of the Jets, who are perhaps in the reverse position – I’m not convinced by Sanchez and their redzone play.

Pick: Patriots Over 11.5 Wins @ 2.00
Pick: Straight Forecast NE/NYJ @ 1.95

AFC West

San Diego will score a lot because they always do (Rivers pulling the strings for Vincent Jackson, Malcolm Floyd and Antonio Gates, with Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert on the ground, is about as solid as it gets) and the feeling is they were a decent special teams unit away from a run at the whole thing last year. It’ll be interesting to see the effect of the lockout, but they should take it.

The really interesting bet here is the Broncos in the rest of the pack. A healthy Denver defense (their Achilles heal) under John Fox may just jump over the rest of the runners, although their schedule is brutal.
The Bolts are too short.

Pick: Straight Forecast SD/Den @ 7.5

AFC North

Colt McCoy and Andy Dalton aren’t getting it done.

As usual, it will be the two big beasts battling it out and I give Pittsburgh the edge, just. Both are formidable defensive units, although the Steelers need to address their secondary, but the Steelers can get it done in clutch situations on offense, whereas Baltimore are prone to stumble when the pressure’s on – most notably against their great rivals.

Pick: Steelers @ 1.91
Pick: Dual Forecast Pit/Bal @ 1.3 (possibly the easiest 30% return you’ll ever see)

AFC South

Manning is injured, Hasselbeck will be, and Blaine Gabbert is a new boy.

It’s Houston!

Pick: Texans @ 2.05
Pick: Texans Over 8.5 Wins @ 1.73

The rest ...

AFC Champs: Patriots @ 4.33
NFC Champs: Packers @ 4.5

Super Bowl : Packers @ 8