orioles

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills

A young, promising home defense is probably over-matched here with Belichick and Brady coming to town. While the Pats struggled for defensive control against the Ravens, the fact that Jackson and C.J.Spiller are banged up at best (and one or both may not go at all) means that Buffalo will be shifted off their preferred gameplan.

Give the points.

Pick: New England Patriots -3.5 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Ron Gronkowski @ 7.0
Pick: Anytime TD Steve Johnson @ 2.1

New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers

The Saints may have the worst defense in the league, so a visit to a smarting Green Bay is probably the last thing the beleaguered New Orleans organisation needs. On offense they look lost, with Brees guessing under centre.

The Pack should be at least a TD better.

Pick: Green Bay Packers -7 @ 1.95 (Laddies, grab it)

Pick: 1st TD Greg Jennings @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Jermichael Finley @ 2.25/Greg Jennings @ 2.0

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles 1.30am Channel 4

The Eagles turn the ball over too much, are weak up front on offense and the Giants' pass rush should give Vick fits. New York will need to be innovative with the ball, but in Manning and Cruz we trust.

Pick: New York Giants +2 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Martellus Bennett @ 13.0
Pick: Anytime TD Victor Cruz @ 2.00

'Puter Picks

Falcons -7
Giants +2
Texans -11.5
Vikings +4
Bears +3.5

Double digit spreads are practically always an automatic play on the dog, especially on national television, but I can't roll with the Browns tonight.

Cleveland don't have a pass rush likely to bother Flacco much and with Joe Haden absent, the Browns are soft against the pass, because Buster Skrine and Dimitri Patterson aren't getting it done. Baltimore will attack that weak secondary with three wide sets (Torrey Smith's speed, even as #3 receiver, can exploit the inevitable mismatches) and shouldn't have any problem moving the ball. Ray Rice may run amok against a run defense that ranks 22nd, as long as Cam Cameron gives him the rock.

On offense the Browns are going to struggle with Brandon Weeden throwing the ball; he's liable to be inaccurate and his receivers aren't the most talented bunch, even if they manage to catch the ball (Greg Little has been killing me in fantasy). On the ground, the excellent Trent Richardson will have to run against a Ravens' front that ranks 5th; he'll be more effective catching out of the backfield, but it'll be a tough game for him either way.

I'll reluctantly give the points in what may be a blowout.

Pick: Baltimore Ravens -11.5 @ 1.95

Pick: Cleveland Trios Sell @ 340 (Sporting Index)
Pick: 1st TD Torrey Smith @ 7.5
Pick: Anytime TD Jacoby Jones @ 2.8

This should be a tough go for the Pack; the Seahawks have a solid defense, CenturyLink Field is a difficult place to go and Green Bay's offense has yet to come to life.

Seattle have an excellent secondary with pace and size at the corners. Up front, Chris Clemons and Red Bryant will cause all sorts of problems for a Packers O line that has struggled to protect Rodgers or open up any sort of run game. This means Green Bay will have to attack those corners and so far the Packers' talented receiving corps have not run their routes well and put the ball on the floor too often.

If the Packers face a challenge on offense, the same can be said for the home team. The options deep aren't great and there's no sign of the coaches looking to Russell Wilson to throw, so it's critical that they keep him out of third and long situations: they rely instead on Marshawn Lynch to smash it up the middle.

Green Bay didn't stop the run effectively in week one but showed some progress against Chicago, however Lynch will be a challenge. Seattle struggle in pass protection and one aspect of Green Bay's defense that has showed signs of life is the pass rush and I anticipate they'll get after Wilson - the Pack certainly won't want their secondary tested.

This is a difficult pick and the price isn't great. The Seahawks' win against Dallas shifted the line a couple of points to a field goal, but 1.8+ is skinny. That said, I can't invest in the Seattle offense just yet and the greater scope for improvement rests with the visitors who should win.

Pick: Green Bay Packers -3 @ 1.87
Pick: Buy Green Bay Sacks @ 3.1

Pick: 1st TD Jermichael Finley @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Jermichael Finley @ 2.20

New England have re-discovered defense; they're tough against the run and the pass, showing second versus the run (2.3 YPC) and third against the pass (5.7 YPA).

The former is tough on the Ravens, who may want to take the ball out of Joe Flacco's hands after last week's performance on his way to a 66.8 passer rating. Chandler Jones and Dont’a Hightower can bring pressure and with the state of the Raven's O line, it could be a long night for Flacco. Ray Rice will anchor the offense and if he doesn't dominate, Baltimore will struggle.

Tom Brady had a tough time last week, but the Cards are rolling and losing Hernandez will have unbalanced the game plan. Nobody is better at re-gathering their team than Belichick and Brady and I expect the Pats to be sharp on offense again. If the Eagles can test Baltimore through the air, then New England certainly can and with no Suggs to slow Brady and a secondary that has problems all over the field, the assorted Patriot deep targets should prosper.

I'll take the points.

Pick: New England Patriots +3 @ 1.91 (Corals)

Pick: 1st TD Rob Gronkowski @ 6.5
Pick: Anytime TD Wes Welker @ 2.8

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2012 ATS 6-6 (-0.41pts)
Totals 0-2 (-2pt)
1st TD 1-11 (-4pts)
Anytime TD 5-7 (-2.15pts)

2011 ATS 46-34 (57.5%)

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I'm looking forward to this game; Houston rely on a low-risk, rush-heavy offense, but Denver have been tough on the run (119 rushing yards at a 2.8 YPC) and that means Schaub will have to look for Andre Johnson more downfield, but beyond Johnson, the pickings are slim. Add in the first real test for Houston's offensive front (Schaub is notoriously skittish in the pocket) and a lot of people's fancy to go all the way will be severely tested at Mile High - always a difficult place to go.

Denver, or rather Peyton Manning, started dreadfully last week, and the offense still looks like it needs fine tuning. That's not good news against a Texans' defense that is well organised and tough. If Peyton struggled against the Hawks, Houston may stymie him.

I'll give the points.

Pick: Houston Texans -1.5 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Andre Johnson @ 8.0
Pick: Anytime TD Eric Decker @ 2.4

It might be a little early to be looking at Tebow, but Sanchez had better get his chit together. After starting at a gallop, the offense disappeared last week and Sanchez was horrible, only managing to pad his stats in garbage time.

The books aren't too sure here; the line started out as far as Jets -5, closed up to -1 and has drifted back to -2, but really, if the Jets have any ambition, they should put the Fins away today.

Sanchez is likely to need to throw because Miami have closed down the run nicely and Shonn Greene looks pedestrian. Santonio Holmes and Stephen Hill should get some looks today and I fancy one of them to have a big game, particularly with Keller out. Outside of Cameron Wake, there isn't a really threatening pass rush from Miami, so last week's protection issues shouldn't arise.

Ryan Tannehill is as advertised: he's a game manager who needs to keep it error free and give his team a chance. Brian Hartline looks like he's emerging as Tannehill's favourite target and he'll get a real test today against the formidable Jets' secondary, but he's a big guy with good hands and will be a handful.

Reggie Bush will be the foundation of the home O, and has shown good form in the past against the visitors - he may be maturing into the player he was supposed to be, but the Jets can concentrate on him, confident that Revis (who looks like he'll play) and his buddies can handle the rest.

Miami really shouldn't have enough on either side of the ball, but I'm backing one of the most inconsistent QBs in the game.

Pick: NY Jets -2 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Stephen Hill @ 12
Pick: Anytime TD Santonio Holmes @ 2.10

I hate capping the Giants, particularly in the first month of the season. Last week was a good example; they started like a junior flag football team and ended like unstoppable world champions.

Cons? Short week, a tough Carolina on the road, Bradshaw and Nicks out, problems at tackle that may expose their QB and a secondary that wasn't too hot to start with, has missing bodies. Pros? Cruz can dominate, Andre Brown may be up to the job against a poor home run D and Manning broke all sorts of records after starting badly last week.

Carolina need to attack that Giants' secondary, but Cam Newton and the ground game did some damage last week, so it'll be a significant chance of approach. They can still pound the rock as New York aren't a brick wall up front (although Keith Rivers is back to help) but they need to feed Steve Smith; they surely will.

Sorting through that lot, it has to be Carolina.

Pick: Carolina Panthers -3 @ 2.00

Pick: 1st TD Steve Smith @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Steve Smith @ 2.20

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2012 ATS 4-5 (-1.23pts)
Totals 0-2 (-2pt)
1st TD 0-9 (-9pts)
Anytime TD 5-4 (+0.85pts)

2011 ATS 46-34 (57.5%)

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A pick 'em in the Georgia Dome would usually have me going for Atlanta, given their record there and Matt Ryan throwing to Tony G, Julio Jones and Roddy White.

However, Peyton Manning showed flashes of his old form in the season opener when the Broncos went to the no huddle offense and Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas (no slouches themselves) will benefit from the Falcons' loss of Brent Grimes, especially with a weak Atlanta pass rush. Similarly, Willis McGahee should have more joy running on guys like Peria Jerry and Jonathan Babineaux than he did last week against the Steelers.

Champ Bailey and Tracy Porter were excellent last week, but will face a much sterner challenge in this matchup. Jones and White, particularly the former, are almost megatron good and suggest that this could be a high scoring affair. Look for Gonzalez too; Mike Adams has problems in coverage and Denver are vulnerable against strong tight ends.

I'll trust in the Manning effect, take the points, and go Over.

Pick: Denver Broncos +3 @ 2.00

Pick: Over 50.5 @ 2.00
Pick: 1st TD Tony Gonzalez @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Eric Decker @ 2.1

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2012 ATS 4-4 (-0.23pts)
Totals 0-1 (-1pt)
1st TD 0-8 (-8pts)
Anytime TD 5-3 (+1.85pts)

2011 ATS 46-34 (57.5%)

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The 49ers are too tough against the run, too quick up front on D and Alex Smith (a player I've always run down) is playing smart, effective, error-free football.

Detroit's O line is suspect and their secondary is decimated (Chris Houston, Louis Delmas and Dwight Bentley are all out) so Megatron will have to have an all-time game for the Lions to cover.

Pick: San Francisco 49ers -7 @ 2.00

Pick: 1st TD SF Defense @ 26
Pick: Anytime TD Vernon Davis @ 2.00

Is RG3 the real deal? Well, he may get tested rather more seriously tonight as the Rams can at least mount a pass rush and, although the Redskins O line played well last week, it isn't a bunch to invest in blindly. The St Louis defense has capable players deep too and so Griffin will be throwing against a much better secondary - it'll be a fascinating battle. Michael Brockers will be out or limited and Alfred Morris should benefit as the Rams struggled against Kevin Smith last week. If the Redskins establish the run, watch out.

The Rams will also face an offensive challenge against a Washington stop unit that shows real promise. Unfortunately, Bradford is seated behind an O line that has personnel missing and has been weak against the pass rush, so he's likely to be on his toes. Steven Jackson offers some respite, but again, the 'Skins are strong at LB. Bradford dinkin' an' dunkin' ain't gonna feed the baby.

Pick: Washington Redskins -3.5 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD RG3 @ 15 (PP)
Pick: Anytime TD Danny Amendola @ 2.5