orioles

A bit embarrassing, but having boldly told everyone I rarely give double digit points; I'm going to do it again the very next week.

Oakland are horrible defending the pass, and even worse against the run. They have little or no pass rush (Richard Seymour is also out) and a secondary that combines a lack of talent with a bad attitude in almost equal measure. The Raiders' run D has collapsed recently and Manning will be able to mix in doses of Knowshon Moreno at will, while picking out his talented deep targets.

The Denver defense is talented and well organised and Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil are likely to wreak havoc against an offensive line that has struggled to protect Carson Palmer, who will find it difficult to develop any sort of passing game with a receiving corps that has often looked on a different page to their triggerman. The Broncos are tough against the run too, so moving the chains may be a problem for the home team tonight.

Denver should blow the doors off the Raiders here.

Pick: Denver Broncos -10 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Knowshon Moreno @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Denver DST @ 4
Spread Bet: Buy Denver Sacks @ 2.9*

*I like this bet to win me enough for Christmas, but be aware, spread betting is highly volatile!

I suppose the pick here depends largely upon whether you believe Eli Manning is really back on track after last week's performance, or whether junior's arm will become a noodle again, and if the Giants are beginning their usual run down the stretch.

The poor Washington secondary could be in for a long night, with targets like Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz on offer. The loss of Andre Brown during the game against the Packers was unfortunate, but Ahmad Bradshaw can keep the ground game rolling against a Redskins' defense that can give up yards: look for Bradshaw down near the goal line, fumbles notwithstanding.

Washington go through rookie phenom RGIII and he will challenge the Giants tonight, especially with Garcon back in the lineup, the continued development of Aldrick Robinson and the ever youthful Santana Moss - all of whom can produce the big play against another shaky secondary. Robert Griffin's ability to run will be critical as ever, as New York have shown some form against the run and Alfred Morris may find the going a little tougher than he did last time he took on the Giants where he went for 120yds.

This should be close, with both teams showing some nice form, but I'll just give the edge to the visitors.

Pick: New York Giants -3 @ 2.15

Pick: 1st Ahmad Bradshaw @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Hakeem Nicks @ 2.2; RGIII @ 2

The Eagles. Poor, clipped, wounded sparrows. Battered, beaten and they've Nick Foles under centre.

Presumably, Dallas will try to stuff the Eagles' run game (their only remaining offense) and force Foles to try and keep pace by throwing to what's left of his receiving corps. I say keep pace, because Dallas should pour it on against one of the poorest defenses about.

The Cowboys are wildly unpredictable from week to week, but they've always struck me as 'flat track bullies' (for those of you reading this on my other blog, who aren't followers of cricket, I apologise: it means when the going is easy, they look aces) and really, if ever there was a team to show off against, it's Philadelphia.

The Eagles haven't conceded less than 28 points since October 14th. They have a -17 turnover ratio, haven't won since Moses was a boy (or week 4) and only two teams have scored fewer points. Their treatment room looks like the hospital at Balaclava and they lost DeSean Jackson during the week.

I give double digits maybe twice a year ... and this is one of those times.

Pick: Dallas Cowboys -10 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Dez Bryant @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Jason Witten @ 2.5; Dallas DST @ 5.5 (I actually like this bet)

The Ravens can eliminate the Steelers from the AFC title race tonight and given the Pittsburgh offensive troubles (I'm trying to be diplomatic) I don't think Baltimore are going to pass up the opportunity.

Charlie Batch is under centre, and if that isn't bad enough for the visitors, their O line is in pieces, so Terrell Suggs and Haloti Ngata may think that Christmas has come early. Batch isn't a complete bust, but he's old and there's little mobility and even less arm strength.

Last week, every tailback put the ball on the ground and the Steelers certainly won't survive that sort of profligacy. Jonathan Dwyer will likely be the lead back, but with Batch's arm a limited threat, Baltimore can load up on the run and take their chances, so it'll be a tough go on the ground. The passing game will be Heath Miller over the top, Emmanuel Sanders in the slot, Antonio Brown on a wing and a prayer and Mike Wallace on the naughty step.

All this suggests the Ravens skate home, but the Steelers will be tough on defense and there may be a kind of Alamo spirit here, as they know they are their team's best chance. Flacco is his usual infuriating self; no-one makes decisions as bad as him in positions where the better option is seemingly obvious. Pittsburgh are really tough against the pass anyway, so Flacco had better bring his A game. The key for the Ravens will be Ray Rice and the absence of Lamarr Woodley must be good news on that front; Rice operates effectively as Flacco's safety valve too, so he'll have a busy night.

The decider for me though, is the Ravens' form at home. That's where Flacco operates best and with the Steelers doubtless keying on stopping Ray Rice, Flacco has the chance to show he can deliver.

I'll give the TD.

Pick: Baltimore Ravens -7 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Ray Rice @ 5.5
Pick: Anytime TD Heath Miller @ 3.1; Baltimore DST @ 4.5

A tough pick, but this really hinges on whether Seattle can get Lynch rolling; if they do, I like them to cover.

Chicago have begun giving up chunks of yardage against the run, but worryingly Marshawn Lynch had a poor game against the fins and he really needs to dominate today to keep the chains moving and to keep Cutler off the field. Rookie QB Russell Wilson has had a fine season, but his options are limited downfield and it is to the Seahawks' credit that they've got him in a system that gives him an opportunity to take shots deep; beware though, that could be a weakness today, as the Bears can bring pressure with four and force Wilson out of his comfort zone, physically and mentally.

If ever the Chicago public needed confirmation that Cutler is their best option to make plays behind that offensive line, then the last couple of weeks should have provided it. However, the Bears lost guards Chris Spencer and Lance Louis last week and Chris Clemons and Bruce Irvin will be optimistic that they can get after Cutler. Deeper, Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner are appealing their PED suspensions, and with Forte out, or limited, Cutler's options are limited and given the quality of the Seahawks' corners, even a talent like Brandon Marshall will have to work hard to find room; and the Bears are pretty one-dimensional out wide.

With everyone smashing into the home team, I'll oppose the herd and put my faith in Lynch dialling it up to 'beast mode' and TAKE (oops) the points in what may be a low scoring affair.

Pick: Seattle Seahawks +3 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Marshawn Lynch @ 7.5
Pick: Anytime TD Golden Tate @ 2.65; Chicago DST @ 3.75

I'm looking forward to what could be an ill-tempered shoot out in the Georgia Dome. There's the must-win Saints against the avenging Falcons - and just for a little added piquancy, the Saints' bus was egged by staff at the Atlanta airport!

Atlanta have a fearsome passing offense and that can't be good news for a Saints defense that ranks 30th against the pass. New Orleans also struggle against the run, but the Falcons have failed to get their ground game going; this could be the opportunity though, for Jacquizz Rodgers to finally wrest the lead back mantle from the cumbersome Michael Turner - although Turner still gets the ball close in, if you're looking at the TD market. Rodgers has begun to catch out of the backfield too, but while all this might suggest there's a significant Atlanta ground attack, the truth is, it's still not that effective.

Rather, it is Matt Ryan to Julio Jones, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez that makes the home team so potent on offense. They murdered the Saints in their last meeting, and although there have been signs of life from the New Orleans' secondary, they are still weak. There's no Saints' pass rush to really worry Ryan, so he'll have time to find his targets.

Drew Brees has a similar array of talent to throw to; Marques Colston, Lance Moore and Jimmy Graham are every bit as dangerous as the Falcons receivers and, although Atlanta have allowed only two multiple TD games all season (ranking a very respectable 13th in ypg) their ability to control wideouts is undermined by Jimmy Graham who matches up well over the middle - Atlanta may have Stephen Nicholas and Sean Weatherspoon back, and they'll need them.

New Orleans have Darren Sproles back and that adds to the Saints' backfield, because he brings variation catching the ball. Atlanta have beefed up their run defense and it's worth noting their success against the explosive Doug Martin last week, but it is crucial New Orleans get something going on the ground.

Some notes: Since 2008, the Falcons are 31-7 record at home, but three of those losses are to the Saints. Atlanta haven't beaten New Orleans in the Georgia Dome since 2008.

The money has come for the visitors (largely, I suspect, on the basis of those stats) but like every shoot out in football, what you have to decide is who is going to make that rare defensive stop, and Atlanta looks the most likely tonight.

I'll give the points.

Pick: Atlanta Falcons -3.5 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Jimmy Graham @ 9; Julio Jones @ 9.5
Pick: Anytime TD Atlanta DST @ 4.5

Great, a disastrous weekend of football betting is topped off with this rotten game!

Cam Newton is having a very tough (and unpredictable) season, while the Eagles have Nick Foles under centre again, behind an O line that is falling apart. Foles would usually look to hand it off to LeSean McCoy, but he's also out with a concussion.

The Panthers should be able to attack the Eagles' secondary, which is poor: Philadelphia don't have much of a pass rush, so there shouldn't be much pressure: look for Steve Smith to score. If Carolina can mix Jonathan Stewart into the run game, along with Newton (RGIII gashed the Eagles) they should come out on top, but decision making on and off the field has been a problem for Carolina this season and the results have followed.

A horrible game to pick, but I'll take my final pennies and give a field goal.

Pick: Carolina Panthers -3 @ 1.9

Pick: 1st TD Cam Newton @ 8
Pick: Anytime TD Steve Smith @ 2.3

Since 2007, the Packers are 19-5 against the spread as underdogs: I'm not a great fan of this kind of stat, but in this case it sums up my feelings about this game.

The Giants have looked poor of late and Manning has been out of sync with the rest of his offense. The Packers' secondary is soft, but as an entire stop unit, they operate pretty efficiently. Even missing Clay Matthews they can mount a decent pass rush and the Giants have problems along the offensive line. Bradshaw is banged up: look for Andre Brown to get touches.

The Packers' run game isn't too pretty either, but Rodgers should be able to get after a middling secondary and I expect him and his receivers to put up numbers: look for Randall Cobb.

I'll take the points.

Pick: Green Bay Packers +2 @ 2

Pick: 1st TD Randall Cobb @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Andre Brown @ 2.38

I said at the beginning of the season that I thought the Saints would be OK, despite 'Bountygate' - only for New Orleans to look completely lost. Luckily, they seem to have put that behind them now and are building up a head of steam that could see them go above .500 with a win today.

Colin Kaepernick was outstanding last week; with a straightforward gameplan, he executed and the 49ers offense looked great. The Saints defense will find it difficult tonight, with an offense with power on the ground and targets deep that can get plenty of separation against guys like Patrick Robinson and Jabari Greer.

New Orleans need to pressure Kaepernick, but they don't have much of a pass rush. Frank gore will be going up against Jonathan Vilma, Curtis Lofton and David Hawthorne - a linebacking corps that is improving (and getting fit) recently and this reflects the general improvement of the Saints on defense.

Drew Brees and his offense are beginning to look like who they ought to be, and although San Francisco are one of the toughest stop units around, if they have a weakness, it is vertically. I suspect what has been a promising New Orleans run game will be choked off, but deeper, Marques Colston, Jimmy Graham and Lance Moore could prosper.

The 49ers are shifting time zones off a short week against a powerful offense that has momentum. It should be a great game, but I'll take the points.

Pick: New Orleans Saints +2 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Jimmy Graham @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Michael Crabtree @ 2.1

Cutler is back (hands up who thought that would be the Bears' best news of the season!) but there's little doubt that behind a horrible offensive line, Jay cobbles together an attack that at least threatens to score where others can't; Jason Campbell was unlucky to come up against the 49ers, but he looked awful and part of the reason was the constant pressure he was under.

It's not going to be a stroll for Cutler with Jared Allen and Brian Robison coming after him, but he should be able to get the ball to Brandon Marshall rather more often, and Marshall matches up nicely this week with his size advantage. Of course, Matt Forte is critical to the offense and he'll see the rock a lot, but Chicago need to get him catching out of the backfield; the Vikes' linebackers are OK in run D but are less good in coverage.

The Minnesota offense is Adrian Peterson. Christian Ponder hasn't been good, and with Percy Harvin still out, the passing game is on the downward curve. The visitors will need to vary the point of attack, and Kyle Rudolph has begun to emerge as a threat, so look for him catching, particularly as that means Minnesota don't need to try and beat the tough Chicago corners. Julius Peppers and his buddies will be keen to show they are as advertised after last week, but note that much of San Francisco's success was a result of the Bears stacking the box against the run and they'll have to do the same today with 'All Day' on duty, so Ponder will have chances.

It's really about AP; if he gets going, the Vikings can prosper and control the tempo of the game. I suspect they'll succeed, so I'll take the points.

Pick: Minnesota Vikings +6 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Adrian Peterson @ 6.5
Pick: Anytime TD Matt Forte @ 2; Kyle Rudolph @ 2.62