North American
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Do with them as you will. They form the basis of my betting and i've done quite nicely. There are two tables. Both are calculated arithmetically and both account for strength of schedule and home/away advantage. Neither account for margin of victory. Just win or lose (or tie). Both have an element of 'form' build in. 3 loses followed by 3 wins will get you higher in the ratings than 3 wins followed by 3 loses with all other things being equal. The pure table started the season with all teams level. The SN table started the season with each team ranked by The Sporting News. Beyond that its all formulaic with no personal bias involved. As the weeks go by the ratings converge.
Here goes.........
PURE
1. Denver
2. New Orleans
3. Minnesota
4. Indianapolis
5. Atlanta
6. New York (N)
7. New England
8. Cincinnati
9. Pittsburgh
10. Arizona
11. Chicago
12. Dallas
13. Green Bay
14. San Francisco
15. Houston
16. Miami
17. Baltimore
18. Philadelphia
19. San Diego
20. Jacksonville
21. Oakland
22. Carolina
23. New York (A)
24. Seattle
25. Buffalo
26. Cleveland
27. Kansas City
28. Detroit
29. Washington
30. Tennessee
31. St Louis
32. Tampa Bay
SN/Floz
1. Indianapolis
2. New Orleans
3. Minnesota
4. Atlanta
5. New York (N)
6. Pittsburgh
7. New England
8. Denver
9. Arizona
10. Chicago
11. Dallas
12. Baltimore
13. Green Bay
14. Miami
15. Philadelphia
16. San Diego
17. Cincinnati
18. Houston
19. Carolina
20. San Francisco
21. New York (A)
22. Jacksonville
23. Tennessee
24. Buffalo
25. Seattle
26. Oakland
27. Kansas City
28. Cleveland
29. Detroit
30. Washington
31. Tampa Bay
32. St Louis
Here goes.........
PURE
1. Denver
2. New Orleans
3. Minnesota
4. Indianapolis
5. Atlanta
6. New York (N)
7. New England
8. Cincinnati
9. Pittsburgh
10. Arizona
11. Chicago
12. Dallas
13. Green Bay
14. San Francisco
15. Houston
16. Miami
17. Baltimore
18. Philadelphia
19. San Diego
20. Jacksonville
21. Oakland
22. Carolina
23. New York (A)
24. Seattle
25. Buffalo
26. Cleveland
27. Kansas City
28. Detroit
29. Washington
30. Tennessee
31. St Louis
32. Tampa Bay
SN/Floz
1. Indianapolis
2. New Orleans
3. Minnesota
4. Atlanta
5. New York (N)
6. Pittsburgh
7. New England
8. Denver
9. Arizona
10. Chicago
11. Dallas
12. Baltimore
13. Green Bay
14. Miami
15. Philadelphia
16. San Diego
17. Cincinnati
18. Houston
19. Carolina
20. San Francisco
21. New York (A)
22. Jacksonville
23. Tennessee
24. Buffalo
25. Seattle
26. Oakland
27. Kansas City
28. Cleveland
29. Detroit
30. Washington
31. Tampa Bay
32. St Louis
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Replies: 175
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strength of schedule..can it really be taken into account??..you never know from season to season who is going to perform
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terrible list
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:^0 that's not nice
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harry,
strength of schedule in the most basic way i can describe it is that if two teams are 3-3 and one has played teams that are 6-0 5-1 5-1 and 3-3x3 they will be rated higher than the one that has played 3-3x3 1-5 1-5 and 0-6. The process for the Pure one is iterative. The process for the SN is not as the starting point (which of course could have been way out is thought to take care of that). No system of ratings is perfect but i like my two. |
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ace high,
how so? what don't you like about it? |
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so week 7 outright prices based on power ratings
SN/FLOZ Cincinnati 2.40 Chicago 1.72 Cleveland 4.98 Green Bay 1.25 St Louis 47.6 Indianapolis 1.02 Pittsburgh 2.07 Minnesota 1.93 Tampa Bay 22.7 New England 1.05 Kansas City 3.44 San Diego 1.41 Houston 1.67 San Francisco 2.50 Carolina 1.42 Buffalo 3.36 Oakland 2.43 New York J 1.70 Dallas 3.01 Atlanta 1.50 Miami 3.91 New Orleans 1.34 New York G 1.44 Arizona 3.28 Washington 6.02 Philadelphia 1.20 |
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cards @ nyg
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oh you've done them all home team 1st
ffs! ;) |
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week 7
Pure/Floz Cincinnati 1.68 Chicago 2.48 Cleveland 3.14 Green Bay 1.47 St Louis 37.0 Indianapolis 1.03 Pittsburgh 4.74 Minnesota 1.27 Tampa Bay 23.3 New England 1.04 Kansas City 2.75 San Diego 1.57 Houston 1.88 San Francisco 2.14 Carolina 1.61 Buffalo 2.64 Oakland 1.71 New York J 2.41 Dallas 3.07 Atlanta 1.48 Miami 9.26 New Orleans 1.12 New York G 1.49 Arizona 3.06 Washington 4.74 Philadelphia 1.27 |
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sorry good value.
i'm not averse to the old cards@new york format but the getting my head around the spreadsheet formula for enhancing the chances of the home team just seemed to make more sense if the home team was first. |
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doesn't bother me, just had me confused for a second
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what does the price on that game look like to you?
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well i use ratings from another siteand they aren't updated yet so hard to say really. but i'd've thought the west-to-east travel thing must make nyg heavier favs than that. cards had an awful record last year vs east coast teams.
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ok, interesting point. as i said my ratings are purely formulaic so if the giants are a bit long at that price it'll be because they are coming off a loss and the cards are a win streak of 3. having said that i don't think that price is a million miles off where the game will trade as we approach kick off.
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Have got back into the nfl this year.
Like the Bengals at home & unders in that game; and The Pats to cover the hcap & alt hcap(stanj) so far in week 7. Also looking at overs Vikings/Steelers. |
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VIks @ Steelers Under 44.5 for me. definately!!!
Nice work floz!! v.helpful |
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Thought I'd share this with you
woodyandbuzz 20 Oct 10:54 http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/sidelinechatter/2010073507_chat16.html Let's just say Charles Barkley probably won't be filming any promotional spots for Australian Rules Football anytime soon. "I don't want to insult the Australians," Barkley told ESPN Radio in Dallas after taking in a recent game Down Under, "[but] I am like, 'These guys are some damn idiots.' ... "Nobody plays football without pads every week for three, four or five months and don't make any money. At least in the NFL, you are going to kill yourself and ... you get to be a millionaire after it's over." Charles they don't wear TAMPONS either, if they did, they would be playing BASKETBALL Lifetaker 21 Oct 06:29 Hahuha, Hohoho haha |
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ul be piling into falcons then....9/5 early price...
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i dont know how dallas start fav against any decent team.
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would be interested to see a working copy of your spreadsheets fonz
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irish wizard,
yes looks a knocking bet on the falcons. |
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redrich,
and how exactly would you think i could send you a copy? |
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and the vikings are the other standout at odds against.
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simple: redrichbetfair at gmail dot com
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FLOZ..have to agree with the vikings...+4 on the spread is looking very appealing....steelers maybe the superbowl champs but the vikings much more balanced team this season....only worry would be any bad weather at heinz field...other than that im going to take the vikings
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reddy,
had a think about it and if its all the same i'll probably keep the formulas and iterative process to myself for the time being. if the redmen win sunday i might be in such a good mood i'll change my mind though. |
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so how did we do? -
bears/bengals no bet. packers/browns no bet chargers/chiefs no bet the shorties backed colts at 1.14 and pats at 1.1 (ok so no prizes but it is interesting that 1.14 and 1.1 can REALLY BE VALUE - i mean these were blow outs absolutely in line with short prices that should have been shorter) and eagles at 1.34 (pretty comfortable but wouldn't like to say that they won like a real good thing) and saints at 1.4 (looked dodgy for a while) so profit on those three a measly 0.98 pts the outsiders that i had as favs vikings at 3.25 (not happy with how that game played out) and falcons at 2.9 (ok, hands up on that one, maybe the cowgirls 3-2 record is falsly poor - i'm interested to see where they land in the power rankings after this one). so loss of 2pts (running total -1.02pts) the outsiders that i had as value 49ers at 2.6 (a field goal shy) Bills at 3.9 (lovely jubbly) raiders at 3.55 (only 38-0!!!!) cardinals at 3.8 (get in. i admit i celebrated that middle of the night interception rather too loudly) profit on those 4 is 3.7 pts (FINAL TOTAL = UP 2.68 pts) didn't put that much effort into getting best prices either, just testing the system. I'm reasonably happy with that for week 1 of putting up my prices and playing accordingly. updated ratings and week 8 prices to follow. |
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Disagree with your list...but agree with this line
ok so no prizes but it is interesting that 1.14 and 1.1 can REALLY BE VALUE A lot of people obsessed with the word 'value'. Value doesnt always mean a big price...smart point my man. |
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Starting with the....
SN/Floz ranking 1.Indianapolis 2.New Orleans 3.Pittsburgh 4.New England 5.Minnesota 6.Arizona 7.Denver 8.Atlanta 9.New York (N) 10.Dallas 11.Green Bay 12.Philadelphia 13.San Diego 14.Baltimore 15.Chicago 16.Cincinnati 17.Miami 18.Houston 19.New York (A) 20.Buffalo 21.San Francisco 22.Jacksonville 23.Carolina 24.Tennessee 25.Seattle 26.Kansas City 27.Oakland 28.Detroit 29.Cleveland 30.Washington 31.St Louis 32.Tampa Bay |
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Pure/Floz rankings
1.New Orleans 2.Denver 3.Indianapolis 4.Pittsburgh 5.Minnesota 6.Arizona 7.Cincinnati 8.New England 9.Dallas 10.Atlanta 11.New York (N) 12.Houston 13.Green Bay 14.Chicago 15.New York (A) 16.Philadelphia 17.Baltimore 18.San Diego 19.Miami 20.San Francisco 21.Buffalo 22.Jacksonville 23.Seattle 24.Oakland 25.Carolina 26.Cleveland 27.Detroit 28.Kansas City 29.Tennessee 30.Washington 31.St Louis 32. Tampa Bay |
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Floz,
Do something very similar myself using an ELO methodology. I have the saints comfortably clear at the moment. Useful for providing a tissue price with which to compare the price action on here. The one thing I did note is that I now have the Dallas Cowboys ranked a few points higher than New York Giants yet they can be backed at 25s or higher for the superbowl compared to 17s for NYG. Denver still look a big price considering their schedule. |
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how does elo work?
isn't that the chess ranking mechanism? i understand that it provides an absolute rating but have you found a way to use those ratings to produce match odds? |
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Using SN Start
Baltimore 2.44 Denver 1.69 New York J 1.89 Miami 2.13 Indianapolis 1.08 San Francisco 12.8 Detroit 1.36 St Louis 3.80 Dallas 1.19 Seattle 6.29 Chicago 1.15 Cleveland 7.75 Buffalo 2.20 Houston 1.83 Philadelphia 2.18 New York G 1.85 San Diego 1.18 Oakland 6.41 Tennessee 1.87 Jacksonville 2.16 Green Bay 2.67 Minnesota 1.60 Arizona 1.16 Carolina 7.14 New Orleans 1.31 Atlanta 4.20 |
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Using Pure Start
Baltimore 11.0 Denver 1.1 New York J 1.76 Miami 2.32 Indianapolis 1.13 San Francisco 8.47 Detroit 1.25 St Louis 5.05 Dallas 1.26 Seattle 4.78 Chicago 1.28 Cleveland 4.57 Buffalo 2.62 Houston 1.62 Philadelphia 2.33 New York G 1.75 San Diego 1.43 Oakland 3.34 Tennessee 4.83 Jacksonville 1.26 Green Bay 2.68 Minnesota 1.59 Arizona 1.13 Carolina 8.70 New Orleans 1.11 Atlanta 10.0 |
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wtf happened on the Baltimore game? 11.0
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so selections at the prices are
denver 2.62 miami 2.68 minnesota 2.6 indianapolis 1.17 detroit 1.6 jacksonville 2.5 oakland 12.5 arizona 1.2 new york g 1.94 all other matches = no bet. |
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jacob,
all i can say is that the iterative process from a equal starting point has Baltimore as a 8-8 team spot on. it has denver as a between a 14-2 and 15-1 team. this is probably too high. as you err towards the extreme of a 15-1 team they calculate out as short price regardless of at home or on the road. the arithmetic basis being that an 8-8 team can be say 7-1 home and 1-7 road or 4-4 home and 4-4 road where as a 15-1 team can really only be in the 8-0 home 7-1 road type category. haven't really explained that that well i don't think. sorry. suffice to say that if you have a 15-1 team playing an bang on average team the formula is going to put the dog up at the sort of price baltimore is showing at on my post regardless that they are at home. on the other basis the one that started pre week 1 with baltimore as a 10-6 team and denver as a 5-11 team i now have baltimore in as just better than 9-7 and denver in as about 11.25-4.75. i'm not too uncomfortable with that. home advantage is a greater adjustment at that level but still denver come out as the favourite. i don't worry about one system producing an outlandish price as they get eliminated when i take the worst price and the most it can do is make a game a no bet. on this occasion i think denver are pretty good value to go and win at above 2.6 |
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I found a method for using ELO to index teams in football betting. I then adapted the multiplier for the score to work for NFL. So a 2-0 win was a 1.5 multiplier and I changed this to represent what I thought was a 2-0 win in NFL.
All the teams were given an index score to start with and then this index changed once the games start. I can drop the rankings into this thread but there on my other laptop. Comes out similar to yours from memory New Orleans have a ranking of around 1140 and Rams who are worst rated have a ranking of around 790. The equates to New Orleans being around a 1/11 when playing at the rams at home and a 1/8 shot when playing away. I would compare the ELO price to the market and consider any significant discrepency. Can easily drop the index calculation method into the thread if your interested. All done in excel. |
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How does it work out Denver as a 15-1 or 14-2 team? Purely based on their start so far?
because.... @ BAL v PIT @ WAS v SD v NYG @ KC @ IND v OAK @ PHI v KC Theres more than 2 losses there for me |