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Floz
20 Oct 09 09:41
Joined:
Date Joined: 25 Nov 04
| Topic/replies: 394 | Blogger: Floz's blog
Do with them as you will. They form the basis of my betting and i've done quite nicely. There are two tables. Both are calculated arithmetically and both account for strength of schedule and home/away advantage. Neither account for margin of victory. Just win or lose (or tie). Both have an element of 'form' build in. 3 loses followed by 3 wins will get you higher in the ratings than 3 wins followed by 3 loses with all other things being equal. The pure table started the season with all teams level. The SN table started the season with each team ranked by The Sporting News. Beyond that its all formulaic with no personal bias involved. As the weeks go by the ratings converge.

Here goes.........
PURE
1. Denver
2. New Orleans
3. Minnesota
4. Indianapolis
5. Atlanta
6. New York (N)
7. New England
8. Cincinnati
9. Pittsburgh
10. Arizona
11. Chicago
12. Dallas
13. Green Bay
14. San Francisco
15. Houston
16. Miami
17. Baltimore
18. Philadelphia
19. San Diego
20. Jacksonville
21. Oakland
22. Carolina
23. New York (A)
24. Seattle
25. Buffalo
26. Cleveland
27. Kansas City
28. Detroit
29. Washington
30. Tennessee
31. St Louis
32. Tampa Bay

SN/Floz
1. Indianapolis
2. New Orleans
3. Minnesota
4. Atlanta
5. New York (N)
6. Pittsburgh
7. New England
8. Denver
9. Arizona
10. Chicago
11. Dallas
12. Baltimore
13. Green Bay
14. Miami
15. Philadelphia
16. San Diego
17. Cincinnati
18. Houston
19. Carolina
20. San Francisco
21. New York (A)
22. Jacksonville
23. Tennessee
24. Buffalo
25. Seattle
26. Oakland
27. Kansas City
28. Cleveland
29. Detroit
30. Washington
31. Tampa Bay
32. St Louis
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Report Floz November 10, 2009 2:04 PM GMT
Monday

SN/Pure Home/Visitor SN/Pure

6.58 5.59 Cleveland Baltimore 1.18 1.22
Report Fallen Angel November 10, 2009 2:24 PM GMT
Interesting, I saw some significant changes this week as well. Good to see that overall you are profiting. The win for Pittsburgh has put them close to the top of my rankings especially because Denver were riding high before that.
Report Floz November 14, 2009 9:08 PM GMT
ok, i'm over the bears loss.
i hate that. if you gonna lose go out 38-0 like oakland that week or semi gloriously like the dolphins against new england but not 10-6.

anyway so from thursday

bears -1/+1.8 -.71/+1.29

for sunday

falcons -1/+.95 -1.03/+.97
bills -1/+3.10 -.49/+1.51
broncos -1/+.59 -1.26/+.74
vikings -1/+.10 -1.82/+.18
jaguars -1/+2.60 -.56/+1.44
saints -1/+.15 -1.74/+.26
dolphins -1/+.23 -1.63/+.37
raiders -1/+.84 -1.09/+.91
cowboys -1/+.72 -1.16/+.84
chargers -1/+.93 -1.04/+.96
cardinals -1/+.31 -1.53/+.47
colts -1/+.80 -1.11/+.89

only sunday no bet is pitt/cinc and mnf is no bet too.

very unusual week in my reckoning. a huge number of excellent value favourites.
Report Floz November 16, 2009 9:36 AM GMT
carnage. thank god for the colts. rarely been so happy with an odds on winner.

before i get to excatly how badly i did a couple of points

1. how great is the nfl? so many topsey turvey games. i never felt totally out of the running on sunday until the bills faded and the bronocos chucked it in and even the falcons couldn't mount a come from behind effort and then i had to be grateful for miami and indy. dallas was the big disappointmemt for me. and why do i keep selecting the raiders?

2. someone asked on another thread why some people back on the match odds not the handicap. my simple answer is because its much better. you care about the game situation and not some artificial arrangement.

anyway, lets tot this up

bears -1/+1.8 -.71/+1.29
falcons -1/+.95 -1.03/+.97
bills -1/+3.10 -.49/+1.51
broncos -1/+.59 -1.26/+.74
vikings -1/+.10 -1.82/+.18
jaguars -1/+2.60 -.56/+1.44
saints -1/+.15 -1.74/+.26
dolphins -1/+.23 -1.63/+.37
raiders -1/+.84 -1.09/+.91
cowboys -1/+.72 -1.16/+.84
chargers -1/+.93 -1.04/+.96
cardinals -1/+.31 -1.53/+.47
colts -1/+.80 -1.11/+.89
Report Floz November 16, 2009 9:48 AM GMT
actually not as bad as i thought -

on level stakes - 7 winners +5.12, 6 losers -6.00 = weekly -0.88

on staking plan - 7 winners +4.57, 6 losers -5.74 = weekly -1.17

running totals

level - 23 wins (+22.11) 20 loses (-20.00) = +10.55%
plan - 23 wins (+17.72) 20 loses (-16.92) = +4.73%

mnf is a no bet for me.
Report Floz November 18, 2009 6:29 PM GMT
full rankings post week 10 to follow but ahead of thursday's game

carolina 1.81 1.80 Miami 2.24 2.26

at the prices available today i'll take miami in this one.
Report Floz November 18, 2009 6:31 PM GMT
thats

Miami -1.00 / +1.68 -0.75 / +1.25
Report Floz November 19, 2009 5:45 PM GMT
post week 10 rankings

from SN start / Team / Pure-Iterative

1 Indianapolis 2
2 New Orleans 1
3 Minnesota 4
4 New England 6
5 Pittsburgh 5
6 Cincinnati 3
7 Arizona 7
8 San Diego 8
9 Dallas 10
10 Atlanta 15
11 Baltimore 11
12 Miami 12
13 Houston 9
14 Carolina 13
15 Philadelphia 19
16 New York G 20
17 Tennessee 18
18 Green Bay 16
19 Denver 14
20 Jacksonville 17
21 Chicago 22
22 San Francisco 21
23 New York J 24
24 Buffalo 25
25 Seattle 23
26 Kansas City 26
27 Washington 27
28 Tampa Bay 29
29 St Louis 28
30 Cleveland 30
31 Oakland 31
32 Detroit 32
Report Floz November 19, 2009 5:46 PM GMT
fallen angel,
where are denver now on the elo?
Report Lifetaker November 19, 2009 10:29 PM GMT
Been Checking your post ; Thank's - good thread
There will allway's be other view's = good oppertunities

2 New Orleans 1 = Agree
4 New England 6 = Disagree could be 3 or 4
9 Dallas 10 /// and /// 16 New York G 20 = Dissagree atleast swap position's, Giant's 8
1 Indianapolis 2 =put back to 3 as they need work
6 Cincinnati 3 = # 13 should make the play off 's as other's in there division are inconsistant
12 Miami 12 = I like gain wild card , then Do some DAMAGE

PS. Keep Up the good work,
Report Floz November 20, 2009 1:19 PM GMT
well you'll be pleased miami got us off to a good start to the weekend.

they were good value odds against even on the road.
Report Floz November 20, 2009 1:34 PM GMT
Sunday

Baltimore - Indianapolis 8.33/11.4 - 1.14/1.10
Tampa Bay - New Orleans 31.3/90.9 - 1.03/1.01
New York G - Atlanta 1.90/2.10 - 2.11/1.91
Minnesota - Seattle 1.09/1.10 - 12.5/11.2
Kansas City - Pittsburgh 7.63/7.94 - 1.15/1.14
Jacksonville - Buffalo 1.40/1.39 - 3.52/3.60
Green Bay - San Francisco 1.45/1.53 - 3.22/2.89
Detroit - Cleveland 2.55/2.91 - 1.64/1.52
Dallas - Washington 1.14/1.16 - 8.13/7.25
St Louis - Arizona 10.0/8.62 - 1.11/1.13
Denver - San Diego 3.11/2.46 - 1.47/1.69
New England - New York J 1.13/1.16 - 8.77/7.19
Oakland - Cincinnati 13.7/28.6 - 1.08/1.04
Chicago - Philadelphia 2.15/2.11 - 1.87/1.90

Monday

Houston - Tennessee 1.62/1.40 - 2.61/3.48
Report Floz November 20, 2009 8:05 PM GMT
ok in order of shortest first the selections are

New England 1.19
New Orleans 1.21
Pittsburgh 1.21
Dallas 1.21
Minnesota 1.23
Cincinnati 1.24
Arizona 1.25 (thats a bit weird that all these favs are in such a tight 1.19 to 1.25 bracket)

Indianapolis 1.85 (i know they are on the road but thats a longer price than they were to beat new england. are people that impressed with beating cleveland 16-0)

Chicago 2.54
Miami 2.68 (already netted)
Cleveland 2.8 (this game is for avoiding 32nd spot for good in the rankings)
San Francisco 3.65
Atlanta 3.8
Buffalo 4.8

broncos/chargers and the monday night game no bets.
Report Floz November 22, 2009 5:45 PM GMT
at the huge risk of speaking too early, cleveland are pounding on detroit...
Report Floz November 22, 2009 6:17 PM GMT
14 unanswered for the lions. 24-17!!!!
Report Floz November 22, 2009 6:20 PM GMT
24-24. beggars belief.

i'm checking out of that game in favour of the next most unbelievable thing. washington at dallas!!!
Report Floz November 22, 2009 8:31 PM GMT
Floz 20 Nov 21:05

Pittsburgh 1.21

Cleveland 2.8

Atlanta 3.8

Buffalo 4.8



some weeks you can't buy a break. absolutely sick but you do have to love the nfl.
Report Floz November 23, 2009 10:07 AM GMT
New England 1.19 +0.19 or +0.32
New Orleans 1.21 +0.21 or +0.35
Pittsburgh 1.21 -1.00 or -1.65
Dallas 1.21 +0.21 or +0.35
Minnesota 1.23 +0.23 or +0.37
Cincinnati 1.24 -1.00 or -1.61
Arizona 1.25 +0.25 or +0.40
Indianapolis 1.85 +0.85 or +0.92
Chicago 2.54 -1.00 or -0.79
Miami 2.68 +1.68 or +1.25
Cleveland 2.8 -1.00 or -0.71
San Francisco 3.65 -1.00 or -0.55
Atlanta 3.8 -1.00 or -0.53
Buffalo 4.8 -1.00 or -0.42

Weekly totals 7 wins 7 losses. +3.62 -7.00 or +3.96 -6.26

selecting 8 favs and 6 dogs, a 7-7 record is just not good enough really. of the 7 shorts i would expect 1 to lose but pittsburgh and cincinnati going down and especially in the circumstances was pretty hard luck. how many consecutive weeks did i take the raiders until this one???

with the dogs i'm gutted only miami got over the line. everyone bar san fran had a shot.
Report Floz November 23, 2009 10:12 AM GMT
Cumulative

30 wins +25.73 27 losses -27.00 (95.3%)
30 wins +21.68 27 losses -23.18 (93.5%)

pathetic. uphill climb from here.
Report Floz November 24, 2009 9:46 AM GMT
as of tuesday 24th november - pre american publication poll results.

sn start / team / pure iterative

1 indianapolis 1
2 new orleans 2
3 minnesota 3
4 new england 5
5 san diego 4
6 arizona 6
7 dallas 8
8 miami 9
9 pittsburgh 10
10 tennessee 12
11 cincinnati 7
12 new york g 16
13 philadelphia 13
14 baltimore 11
15 green bay 14
16 atlanta 19
17 jacksonville 15
18 houston 17
19 carolina 20
20 denver 18
21 kansas city 21
22 chicago 26
23 san francisco 22
24 new york j 24
25 seattle 25
26 buffalo 27
27 oakland 23
28 washington 28
29 tampa bay 30
30 st louis 29
31 detroit 31
32 cleveland 32
Report Floz November 25, 2009 3:36 PM GMT
Happy Thanksgiving everyone.

Detroit 6.62 5.99 Green Bay 1.18 1.20

Dallas 1.13 1.20 Oakland 8.62 6.10

Denver 2.37 1.93 New York G 1.73 2.07
Report Floz November 25, 2009 3:43 PM GMT
no bet
no bet
denver at 3.75

thats interesting. i'm happy to neither back or field against the two shorties and particularly at mile high i like being against the giants at 1.36 on the road off of a squeeker against the falcons.
Report Lifetaker November 25, 2009 11:43 PM GMT
Good luck , FLOZ
Packer's
Raider's to make a joke out-off the Cowboy's
and in the Hard one, Heart say's : Bronco's, Mind say's : Giant's
Report Fallen Angel November 26, 2009 8:42 AM GMT
Floz, Good luck tonight, my ELO had Dallas at 1.15 and Green Bay at 1.21 so neither of these games are a bet for me. I would normally back Denver because the ELO has got them around 2.8, however with the injury to Orton there is just too much uncertainty and the back-up playing would make the 1.42 on NYG look very big in light of last weeks performance. Hope you do well, not going with the model this time round as Denver looked appalling last week.
Report Floz November 26, 2009 3:34 PM GMT
1.16 1.21 Atlanta 7.41 5.78 Tampa Bay
2.43 2.45 St Louis 1.70 1.69 Seattle
1.16 1.19 Philadelphia 7.25 6.33 Washington
2.38 2.27 New York J 1.72 1.79 Carolina
15.4 25.6 Houston 1.07 1.04 Indianapolis
1.04 1.03 Cincinnati 25.6 34.5 Cleveland
4.76 4.90 Buffalo 1.27 1.26 Miami
1.16 1.17 San Diego 7.41 6.85 Kansas City
2.23 2.66 San Fran 1.81 1.60 Jacksonville
2.26 2.41 Tennessee 1.79 1.71 Arizona
1.11 1.07 Minnesota 10.4 14.7 Chicago
1.94 1.71 Baltimore 2.07 2.41 Pittsburgh
1.28 1.08 N Orleans 4.63 13.7 New England
Report Floz November 26, 2009 4:05 PM GMT
Lifetaker,

how do you rate the raiders recent win? i'm not sure i'd want to be siding with the raiders at the odds. the handicap is a completely different matter. i find the +13.5 or whatever it is ridiculous considering the cowboys scoring record in the last two games. On balance i expect the cowboy to sneak the win. re the broncos i'm banking on the home field being a big factor.

Fallen Angel,

so ELO and my home brewed system are chucking out very similar prices for those first two games. thats cool. with denver and the giants and the system prices, i'm happy despite denver injuries as denver have taken a dive in the ratings and are now properly pegged and the giants for me didn't prove they are out of their slump with an OT victory. solid odds on on the road team in a game between two 6-4 teams can't be too good value can it?
Report Lifetaker November 26, 2009 5:34 PM GMT
Floz ,
Sometimes all it takes, is a Win to Lift a team. Hope they are switched on.
The Cowboy's , I think have been Massive Dissapppointment's All season. They are lucky that the Gaint's & Eagle's haven't been Focused.
I've compared them with the Panther's , So many mistakes in early part of season. Infact the only game they were any good was against the Falcon's, & if you include the seahawk game that = 2.
To be held out by the Redskin's till the last minutes of the game , & then winning by a single point with a TD. CONFIRM"S it for me. Haven't & WONT be on the Cowboy's this year.
Report Floz November 27, 2009 1:22 PM GMT
broncos by easier than i thought.

are the giants out of the play-off picture?
Report Floz November 27, 2009 6:06 PM GMT
Atlanta Tampa Bay - no bet
St Louis @ 2.56
Philadelphia @ 1.27
Carolina @ 2.6
Indianapolis @ 1.58
Cincinnati @ 1.15
Miami @ 1.58
San Diego Kansas City - no bet
Jacksonville @ 2.66
Arizona @ 2.34
Minnesota @ 1.21


i'll come back to these two although new orleans will defo be the play -
1.94 1.71 Baltimore 2.07 2.41 Pittsburgh
1.28 1.08 N Orleans 4.63 13.7 New England
Report Floz November 28, 2009 10:56 AM GMT
new orleans @ 1.84
Report Floz November 28, 2009 11:05 AM GMT
late sunday game = no bet.
Report Floz December 1, 2009 5:16 PM GMT
Denver @ 3.75 +2.75 +1.47
St Louis @ 2.56 -1.00 -0.78
Philadelphia @ 1.27 +0.27 +0.43
Carolina @ 2.6 -1.00 -0.77
Indianapolis @ 1.58 +0.58 +0.73
Cincinnati @ 1.15 +0.15 +0.26
Miami @ 1.58 -1.00 -1.27
Jacksonville @ 2.66 -1.00 -0.75
Arizona @ 2.34 -1.00 -0.85
Minnesota @ 1.21 +0.21 +0.35
New orleans @ 1.84 +0.84 +0.91

so another ridiculous losing week. that arizona loss kills me. i'm actually excited for tennessee and i hope they go and win next week too and get in the play-offs but converting 3 fourth downs when you're on the underdog to win on the last play of the game is beyond a joke.

6 favs - only miami let me down 5 wins +2.05 1 loss -1.00 or 5 wins +2.68 1 loss -1.27

5 dogs and only denver obliged 1 win +2.75 4 losses -4.00 or 1 win +1.47 4 losses -3.15

weekly total 6 wins +4.80 5 losses -5.00 or 6 wins +4.15 5 losses
-4.42
Report Floz December 1, 2009 5:19 PM GMT
cumulative

level
36 wins (30.53) 32 losses (32.00) - 95.4%

plan
36 wins (25.83) 32 losses (27.60) - 93.6%
Report Floz December 1, 2009 5:32 PM GMT
now we've had the first week after the bye weeks are complete i'm combining the two tables to one combined ranking -

1. Indianapolis
2. New Orleans
3. Minnesota
4. San Diego
5. New England
6. Dallas
7. Tennessee
8. Cincinnati
9. Arizona
10. Baltimore
11. Philadelphia
12. Green Bay
13. Pittsburgh
14. Miami
15. Denver
16. Atlanta
17. New York G
18. Houston
19. San Francisco
20. Jacksonville
21. New York J
22. Carolina
23. Buffalo
24. Kansas City
25. Seattle
26. Chicago
27. Oakland
28. Washington
29. Tampa Bay
30. Detroit
31. St Louis
32. Cleveland
Report Fallen Angel December 1, 2009 6:24 PM GMT
I am very suprised you have got Indianapolis still above New Orleans especially as the fixed point of the Patriots was comprehensively answered yesterday. Other than that Rankings appear to be converging with the conference tables which is a positive (same happening with my ELOs)
Report Floz December 2, 2009 9:28 AM GMT
i'm kind of surprised too.

the figures are -

Indy started on the SN calculation at 12-4 (.750)
New Orleans started at 9-7 (.5625)

they are now at indianapolis .951 and new orleans .929

on the pure they obviously both started at .500

they are now at new orleans .756 indianapolis .752

re-iterating these ratings with the same 'weekly movement from expected' factor as the SN start point rankings we get to new orleans .949 and indianapolis .947

so new orleans would be ranked 1 in my pure/iterative rankings.

having decided to combine for better or for worse i get indianapolis .949 and new orleans .939

if you are interested minnesota .820 san diego .765 new england .720 dallas .683 tennessee .662 etc etc so much bigger gaps starting to be in evidence even only as far down as 6th/7th.

tennesse are the really interesting one's. on the pure they are 13th but when you iterate it they move up to 8th and 7th when you combine. on the face of it 7th for a team that is 5-6 is way off but it makes sense to me the way i do the rankings. if they knock the colts off i see them as 4th. if the colts win they extend their lead over new orleans. i'm really looking forward to this match. as 11-0 v 5-6 matches go this is unique.
Report Floz December 2, 2009 9:41 AM GMT
thursday's game

buffalo 1.64 new york J 2.56
Report Floz December 2, 2009 9:45 AM GMT
weird.

i'll take that now

buffalo @ 2.47
Report Floz December 2, 2009 9:51 AM GMT
slip of the finger

BUFFALO @ 2.46 !!!!!!!
Report CJ December 2, 2009 11:21 AM GMT
Dallas @6. PMSL
Report Floz December 2, 2009 12:42 PM GMT
where are they in the US polls?
Report Floz December 2, 2009 12:49 PM GMT
sporting news have them ........... 5!

thats pushing it. i prefer 6.
Report Floz December 4, 2009 2:37 PM GMT
New York G 2.55 1.64 Dallas
Atlanta 1.90 2.11 Philadelphia
Washington 41.7 1.02 New Orleans
Pittsburgh 1.21 5.71 Oakland
Kansas City 2.27 1.79 Denver
Jacksonville 1.77 2.30 Houston
Indianapolis 1.08 14.1 Tennessee
Cincinnati 1.07 14.7 Detroit
Chicago 1.23 5.41 St Louis
Carolina 1.23 5.35 Tampa Bay
Miami 2.58 1.63 New England
Cleveland 26.3 1.04 San Diego
Seattle 1.90 2.11 San Francisco
Arizona 2.82 1.55 Minnesota
Green Bay 1.78 2.28 Baltimore
Report Fallen Angel December 4, 2009 2:56 PM GMT
Floz, are these power rating prices you are putting up? New Orleans however good they are and San Diego appear to be way to short considering both teams are way from home. Last look NO were a 1.22 shot at washington on here.

Otherwise you are going to be having a big bet on both these sides.

Keep up the good work, will be interested to see who you have going into the play-offs, do you have an antepost Superbowl bet?
Report Floz December 4, 2009 3:13 PM GMT
ok, my take on the new orleans price.

a team that goes 8-8 will most likely go 5-3 at home or 6-2 possibly, in any event the home advantage will be very evident.

a team that goes 16-0 will go 100% for sure go 8-0 at home and in terms of win % there will be no advantage to playing home and away.

this is just an illustration that home/away advantage diminishes as you tend towards the extremes of records. arsenal's invincibles for example. derby the year they got 11 points or however many.

so the fact that new orleans is on the road is not a big issue for me.

it is definately not that my ratings system doesn't factor home advantage enough as you can see from above - i'll be playing 6 homes and 3 aways on the prices at the moment (i'll post in a minute).

now as to the absolute chance of new orleans or any team that is at around the 90% win rating.

if a 90% win rating team plays a 50% win rating team the match odds will be 1.11 9.00. this is simply a function of the 50% win rating team being a neutral adjustment (as they are the perfectly average team) to the 90% win rating teams chances.

as new orleans are currently over 90% and washington well below 50% that's how the price from the ratings gets calculated so low.

with san diego its much more a function of how poor cleveland are but same principle.

but what do i know - i'm losing..........

i do acknowledge that the prices the model throws out are counter-intuitive in some instances and until i became comfortable with it i would look at prices and think they had to be wrong.

i remember when i first used these models for betting on soccer in the 80's and liverpool at home would sometimes show as 85% chance win 13% draw and 2% lose against the lower teams. the coupon in the shop would have liverpool 1/5 (no bet with tax) the draw whatever and the away side 9/1..... they would so very very rarely go double figures and i would look at this 9/1 against my 50/1 and think i'd got something wrong. i think liverpool went 79 unbeaten at home... some of those opponents should have been 100/1 (the worser ones). chelsea eclipsed that record recently i think (infact i know cos liverpool ended it). the point being don't think your own prices are wrong cos the market disagrees.

the other comforter is that just cos i have new orleans at 1.02 doesn't mean i'm backing them at 1.02. i'm filling my boots with 1.23!!!!
Report Floz December 4, 2009 3:22 PM GMT
dallas @ 1.78
new orleans @ 1.23
kansas city @ 3.2
jacksonville @ 2.02
indianapolis @ 1.39
cincinnati @ 1.16
carolina @ 1.44
maimi @ 3
san diego @ 1.18
seattle @ 2

chicago/st louis is a no bet
falcons/eagles i'll be taking falcons when prices settle
steelers/raiders is way off a 100% market at the moment.
late and monday game i'll come back to later.

dallas, kc, carolina, miami and seattle have got to come through for me. i'm sick of being down. new orleans, indy, the bengals and chargers i'm very confident of. jacksonville i wouldn't have myself. thats a system bet but in is in.

i should explain indy. i love tennesse and what they are doing and i really hope they make the play-offs - however 2/5 on an 11-0 team is stealing really.
Report Floz December 6, 2009 4:49 PM GMT
Oakland @ 11
Atlanta @ 3
Report Floz December 6, 2009 9:09 PM GMT
Ah the raiders. The raiders the raiders the raiders.
Report Floz December 7, 2009 12:00 AM GMT
End the weekend with -
Minnesota @ 1.6
Baltimore @ 2.84
Report CJ December 7, 2009 10:27 AM GMT
Dallas are softer than marshmallow, wouldn't even have them in my top 10, can't have them whatsoever. Look brilliant against the poor teams but when the *****are down they go missing.
Report Floz December 7, 2009 10:47 AM GMT
well i won't argue about top 10. they will almost certainly drop out after yesterday.

funny game though - dallas' d has been good recently and the offense patchy (well outright terrible v green bay and washington) yet in the meadowlands romo goes 41 off 55 for 392 with 3 td's and no interceptions. thats a nice line. they lose cos they botch two field goals and allow an 80 yard punt return.

anyway, they were probably due a loss after squeeking a couple and now the pressue is on. they could win the division or blow even a wild card. very interesting division the nfc east now. as is the afc east thanks to the dolphins............
Report Floz December 7, 2009 10:48 AM GMT
annoyed with that minnesota selection at 1.6 when the price i had was 1.55 (thats a borderline/definate no bet).

how poor was brett favre?
Report good value losers December 7, 2009 10:52 AM GMT
minn o line missing starters and barely had 5 fit players according to the comms. that's something ratings can't account for game by game.
Report Floz December 7, 2009 10:57 AM GMT
yes i was blaming favre on his own. i acknowledge the o line was banged up but he looked very poor as a result. they looked a million miles from a 10-1 team.
Report Floz December 7, 2009 5:13 PM GMT
so results for thursday-sunday begining with bad at buffalo and ending with bad in arizona.

buffalo @ 2.46 (-1) (-0.81)
kc @ 3.2 (-1) (-0.63)
atlanta @ 3 (-1) (-0.67)
oakland @ 11 (+10) (+1.82)
jax @ 2.02 (+1.02) (+1.01)
indy @ 1.39 (+0.39) (+0.56)
cincy @ 1.16 (+0.16) (+0.28)
carolina @ 1.44 (+0.44) (+0.61)
miami @ 3 (+2) (+1.33)
n orleans @ 1.23 (+0.23) (+0.37)
s diego @ 1.18 (+0.18) (+0.31)
seattle @ 2 (+1) (+1)
dallas @ 1.78 (-1) (-1.12)
minnesota @ 1.6 (-1) (-1.25)

9 wins 5 loses from 7 favourite selections 2 even and 5 dogs. the big news being 5 favs won and 2 lost (dallas and minn) both even won and 2 of 5 dogs won including oakland at 11. miami at 3 the other.

level stakes 9 wins (+15.42) 5 loses (-5)
plan 9 wins (+7.29) 5 loses (-4.48)

cumulative before monday night football

level 45 wins (+45.95) 37 loses (-37) = 124.2%
plan 45 wins (+33.12) 37 loses (-32.08) = 103.2%

baltimore tonight @ 2.84 -1/+1.84 -0.70/+1.30
Report I win every time! December 7, 2009 5:26 PM GMT
Floz - been reading some of this thread and it's proving quite interesting reading. For the uninitiated amongst us (me!), can you explain to me (like I'm my six year old daughter please!), what the line:

Baltimore tonight @ 2.84 (their scratch odds oviously) -1 / +1.84 - 0.70 / +1.30

...actually represents?

Cheers in advance and apologies if I'm being lazy here!
Report Floz December 7, 2009 5:38 PM GMT
the first two numbers are a level stakes bet of £1. if it loses -£1 and if it wins +£1.84. the second pair of numbers are if you place the bet to a £2 differential. ie £1 at even money increasing as the odds shorten and decreasing as the odds lengthen. at a price of 2.84 calculated as stake = 2/2.84 = 70p so if it loses -£0.70 and if it wins +£1.30

i don't suspect anyone is checking up on me but i always post prices available at the time of the post. baltimore 2.84 was the price during the second half of everton's game yesterday. its longer now!!

also i realise that the -0.70/+1.30 is not technically accurate at 2.84 but i always take the stake rounded and the + is the balance to £2. some give me the rounding some take away from me the rounding.

the wins and losses quoted are on these two basis' even though sometimes i don't quote the actual figures before the game, only the price taken.
Report I win every time! December 7, 2009 5:53 PM GMT
Thanks mate. So what would you use the second set of figures for (forgive my ignorance)? Could you not express it as 35% / 65%?
Report Floz December 8, 2009 8:53 AM GMT
Absolutely I could do that.
I double it up as the closest equivalent of the level £1 stake.
As I then report profit / loss as percentage it's a moot point yeah.

Anyway as Baltimore capitulated last night total now -

45 wins (46.95 or 33.12)
38 loses (38 or 32.78)
Report Floz December 8, 2009 8:53 AM GMT
Absolutely I could do that.
I double it up as the closest equivalent of the level £1 stake.
As I then report profit / loss as percentage it's a moot point yeah.

Anyway as Baltimore capitulated last night total now -

45 wins (46.95 or 33.12)
38 loses (38 or 32.78)
Report Floz December 9, 2009 4:24 PM GMT
Rankings after Week 13

1 Indianapolis
2 New Orleans
3 San Diego
4 Minnesota
5 Arizona
6 Philadelphia
7 Cincinnati
8 New England
9 Tennessee
10 Baltimore
11 Miami
12 Green Bay
13 Dallas
14 Denver
15 New York G
16 Jacksonville
17 New York J
18 Pittsburgh
19 Atlanta
20 Houston
21 Seattle
22 Carolina
23 San Francisco
24 Oakland
25 Chicago
26 Kansas City
27 Buffalo
28 Washington
29 Tampa Bay
30 Detroit
31 St Louis
32 Cleveland
Report Floz December 9, 2009 4:33 PM GMT
fcku thats wrong. didn't include gb / baltimore result.
Report Floz December 9, 2009 4:41 PM GMT
Corrected rankings - Post Week 13

1 Indianapolis
2 New Orleans
3 San Diego
4 Minnesota
5 Arizona
6 Philadelphia
7 Cincinnati
8 New England
9 Green Bay
10 Tennessee
11 Miami
12 Dallas
13 Denver
14 New York G
15 Baltimore
16 Jacksonville
17 New York J
18 Pittsburgh
19 Atlanta
20 Houston
21 Seattle
22 Carolina
23 San Francisco
24 Oakland
25 Chicago
26 Kansas City
27 Buffalo
28 Washington
29 Tampa Bay
30 Detroit
31 St Louis
32 Cleveland
Report Floz December 9, 2009 5:15 PM GMT
week 14

Cleveland 12.0 Pittsburgh 1.09
Dallas 2.56 San Diego 1.64
Atlanta 25.4 New Orleans 1.04
Tampa Bay 5.64 New York J 1.22
N England 1.23 Carolina 5.26
Minnesota 1.41 Cincinnati 3.44
Kansas City 1.53 Buffalo 2.87
Jacksonville 2.04 Miami 1.96
Indianapolis 1.02 Denver 41.2
Houston 1.53 Seattle 2.88
Chicago 3.36 Green Bay 1.42
Baltimore 1.07 Detroit 15.0
Tennessee 1.04 St Louis 24.5
Oakland 1.26 Washington 4.83
New York G 1.92 Philadelphia 2.09
S Francisco 4.37 Arizona 1.30
Report Floz December 9, 2009 5:21 PM GMT
pittsburgh @ 1.19
Report Floz December 11, 2009 10:50 PM GMT
san diego @2.56
new orleans @ 1.21
jets @ 1.56
carolina @ 7
minn/cin no bet
kc @ 2.02
miami @ 2.26
indy @ 1.36
seattle @ 3.5
green bay @ 1.54
baltimore @ 1.15
tennessee @ 1.16
oakland @ 2.08
giants/philly no bet
arizona @ 1.58

riding indy and new orleans. so too the dolphins. arizona san diego green bay the jets and oakland hold the key.
Report Floz December 15, 2009 10:38 AM GMT
riding indy and new orleans. so too the dolphins. arizona san diego green bay the jets and oakland hold the key.

you might have thought i'd do ok but from pittsburgh on thursday thru arizona last night its another losing week. sunday was great. the rest not so much.

8 favs selected - all 6 on sunday win but pitt and ariz kills it especially on the plan stakes.

2 evens - kc and oakland both lose. kc put up a fight at least!!!

4 dogs - san diego and miami = nice. seattle = terrible. carolina had me quite excited there at 7 for a while.

even reviewing it i can't quite see how i didn't win this week but the results are -

8 wins (+4.80 or +5.18)
6 loses (-6.00 or - 5.76)

cumulative

level - 53 wins (51.75) 44 loses (44.00) = 117.6%
plan - 53 wins (38.30) 44 loses (38.54) = 99.4%
Report Floz December 15, 2009 10:40 AM GMT
so after week 14 my rankings look like this

1 Indianapolis
2 New Orleans
3 San Diego
4 Minnesota
5 Philadelphia
6 Green Bay
7 Miami
8 New England
9 Tennessee
10 Arizona
11 Cincinnati
12 Baltimore
13 Denver
14 Dallas
15 New York G
16 New York J
17 Houston
18 San Francisco
19 Jacksonville
20 Atlanta
21 Buffalo
22 Carolina
23 Seattle
24 Pittsburgh
25 Chicago
26 Washington
27 Oakland
28 Kansas City
29 Cleveland
30 Detroit
31 Tampa Bay
32 St Louis
Report Floz December 15, 2009 11:22 AM GMT
week 15 tissue

Jacksonville 49.2 Indianapolis 1.02
New Orleans 1.03 Dallas 35.6
Baltimore 1.21 Chicago 5.86
Tennessee 1.68 Miami 2.47
St Louis 8.25 Houston 1.14
Pittsburgh 4.13 Green Bay 1.32
Philadelphia 1.22 San Francisco 5.63
New York J 1.45 Atlanta 3.23
Kansas City 1.44 Cleveland 3.28
Detroit 10.9 Arizona 1.10
Buffalo 3.50 New England 1.40
Denver 1.18 Oakland 6.44
San Diego 1.23 Cincinnati 5.35
Seattle 1.14 Tampa Bay 8.17
Carolina 5.62 Minnesota 1.22
Washington 2.72 New York G 1.58
Report Floz December 17, 2009 8:47 PM GMT
Indianapolis @ 1.57


Is that a joke?
Report Floz December 18, 2009 11:31 AM GMT
manning to wayne for 65 yards.... Thank you.

can't understand why people aren't just riding these two teams that are undefeated. i've just been over this whole thread and some of the prices on indianapolis have been exceptional. even a loss here would have still seen me well up on them.

with that in mind and despite being an unashamed romo apologist in a different life, i unhesitatingly put up for saturday's game

New Orleans @ 1.31
Report orioles December 18, 2009 11:39 AM GMT
Floz, if you're interested in a system like that (although diametrically opposed to it!) go here http://underdogtheorem.com/index1.html

I love system betting and this is one I'm following this season that has some merit.
Report Floz December 18, 2009 11:47 AM GMT
are you eddie getz, orioles.

is the book about the nfl and wall street or just the nfl?
Report orioles December 18, 2009 11:54 AM GMT
lol, no, I'm not Eddie Getz!

That page is a bit confusing (it's the book cover too) but it's all NFL betting, he just claims it outperforms the stock market. As I say, having bought the book this year, I'm running the system this season on paper to see how good it is, or if I can adapt it.

These are this season's bets

http://underdogtheorem.wordpress.com/
Report Floz December 18, 2009 11:58 AM GMT
yep, saw that a poster called eddie getz put those up on a forum called the punters lounge.

ok, thanks for the recommendation. i'll treat myself to that book this crimbo.
Report orioles December 18, 2009 12:12 PM GMT
Ah, right. I don't know that forum, but I not the author, or on any commission! As I said, I love systems (I collect them and have hundreds) and was interested by the idea of an adaptation of a loss recovery system like this.
Report Jello Biafra December 18, 2009 12:13 PM GMT
Do you not think your system is overrating both indy and new orleans Floz? It seems unrealistic to me that any team should be 1.02 against Jacksonville or 1.03 against Dallas.
Report Floz December 18, 2009 12:54 PM GMT
Probably jello, it begs the question how do you rate a team that's 13-0 in a sixteen game season?
Report Floz December 18, 2009 4:13 PM GMT
jello,
sorry - perhaps i should have worded that

how DOES one rate a 13-0 team.
Report Jello Biafra December 18, 2009 5:33 PM GMT
I think this kind of situation makes a good case for an elo-based method - the "diminishing returns" you get with elo when the winning team already had a much higher rating than the losing team should prevent an undefeated team's ability getting too highly rated.
Report Floz December 20, 2009 4:38 PM GMT
so far this week

Indianapolis @ 1.57
New Orleans @ 1.31 (need to come back to this re underdog theorum)

today, lots of matches well within 10% of my prices and therefore no bet -

ones that aren't

miami @ 3.1
green bay @ 2.32
philadelphia @ 1.34
kansas city @ 1.72
oakland @ 8
san diego @ 1.36
seattle @ 1.38

monday

new york g @ 1.8
Report Floz December 21, 2009 10:30 AM GMT
don't know whether i'm being lucky or unlucky. oakland have delivered BIG time again but hell, those were heartbreakers for miami and green bay. why did green bay go so conservative on defence on that last drive. ridiculous. kansas city a sickener too. all in all about balances out i suppose -

so from indy on thursday to the end of sunday's entertainment the results for this week are 4 wins (+11.77) and 5 loses (-10.65) these figures are now the two staking methods combined which i will run to the end of the season, now that i have also combined the two ranking methods.
Report Floz December 21, 2009 10:34 AM GMT
having brought forward

53 wins (+90.05) and 44 loses (-82.54)

that gives a cumulative before the Giants game tonight of -

57 wins (+101.82) 49 loses (-93.19) = 109.3%

Giants tonight is 2.11 @ 1.8
Report Floz December 22, 2009 9:31 AM GMT
nice and easy for the giants -

58 (+103.51) 49 (-93.19) = 111.1%

straight on to the fastest updated power rankings in existence

1 Indianapolis
2 San Diego
3 New Orleans
4 Philadelphia
5 New England
6 Tennessee
7 Dallas
8 Minnesota
9 Arizona
10 Miami
11 Baltimore
12 Cincinnati
13 Green Bay
14 New York G
15 Atlanta
16 Houston
17 Carolina
18 Denver
19 San Francisco
20 Pittsburgh
21 Jacksonville
22 New York J
23 Oakland
24 Buffalo
25 Chicago
26 Cleveland
27 Washington
28 Seattle
29 Tampa Bay
30 Kansas City
31 Detroit
32 St Louis
Report Floz December 22, 2009 9:47 AM GMT
by the way, some fella was on recently complaining what a boring season it had been. NONSENSE.

the play-off picture (even who gets there) is looking fascinating and then the potential match ups with the higher ranked team on the road once we get there sets up a brilliant new year.
Report Floz December 22, 2009 10:07 AM GMT
and for your early consideration - the week 16 tissue (market makers pay for this sort of stuff - you get it for free!!)

Tennessee 2.77 San Diego 1.57
Atlanta 1.33 Buffalo 4.02
Pittsburgh 2.53 Baltimore 1.65
Philadelphia 1.20 Denver 5.88
New York G 1.48 Carolina 3.08
New Orleans 1.04 Tampa Bay 26.0
New England 1.21 Jacksonville 5.72
Miami 1.40 Houston 3.51
Green Bay 1.18 Seattle 6.66
Cleveland 2.24 Oakland 1.80
Cincinnati 1.08 Kansas City 13.2
Arizona 1.03 St Louis 31.4
San Francisco 1.11 Detroit 10.3
Indianapolis 1.01 New York J 101
Washington 5.88 Dallas 1.20
Chicago 5.05 Minnesota 1.25
Report northern_oldie December 22, 2009 4:07 PM GMT
floz, keep up the good work. its NOT boring. not bet much on NFL, but this thread has been really useful for me.
Report Floz December 23, 2009 5:12 PM GMT
glad to hear that northern oldie.

now we might aswell cover off the early game this week -

san diego £1.83 @ 2.42
Report CJ December 23, 2009 6:37 PM GMT
Good work Floz,

Dallas up and down like a **'s drawers, like i said earlier brilliant one week, garbage the next.
Gonna keep on the right side of Cleveland from now on, with Josh Cribbs on fire and the D looking good at home against the Steelers. My banker of the week at home to the awful Raiders.
Report Floz December 27, 2009 3:04 PM GMT
the chargers did the business. I'll add that in as part of week 16 totals. Other selections-

buffalo @4.9
Baltimore @2.36
Philly @1.35
Carolina @4.3
new Orleans@1.15
Miami@1.86
seattle@8
Oakland@2.54
Arizona@1.13
Indy@1.52
Dallas@1.33

all others no bet.
Report Floz December 28, 2009 11:44 AM GMT
Ok, truely awful after the good start San Diego gave us. Although with Carolina big winners at a nice price more than 100% of the weekly loss is accounted for by the new Orleans and Indianapolis results. New Orleans, fair enough, they are obviously not that good and anyone can miss a 30 yard field goal to win. Indianapolis was a bit different - I thought Americans loved winners. This anti 16-0 lobby is very strange to me. I feel very sorry for the reserve quaterback sent in there to take the rap. His effort on the sack fumble for the td was an embarrassment that he'll surely never live down.

Anyway, on the positive would have been up this week bar those two and entitled to believe that Baltimore and Miami were teams that grabbed defeat from the jaws of victory despite mounting creditable comeback efforts.

5 wins +9.48 7 losses -13.44

season total - 63 wins +112.99 56 losses -106.63
Report Floz January 1, 2010 11:02 AM GMT
January 1 power rankings

1 San Diego
2 Indianapolis
3 Philadelphia
4 New England
5 New Orleans
6 Dallas
7 Tennessee
8 Arizona
9 Cincinnati
10 Green Bay
11 Houston
12 Minnesota
13 Carolina
14 Atlanta
15 New York J
16 Baltimore
17 Miami
18 Pittsburgh
19 New York G
20 San Francisco
21 Denver
22 Jacksonville
23 Chicago
24 Tampa Bay
25 Cleveland
26 Buffalo
27 Oakland
28 Seattle
29 Washington
30 Kansas City
31 Detroit
32 St Louis
Report Floz January 1, 2010 11:21 AM GMT
week 17 tissue

Buffalo 11.1 Indianapolis 1.10
Tampa Bay 2.82 Atlanta 1.55
St Louis 10.4 San Francisco 1.11
Minnesota 1.45 New York G 3.24
Miami 1.57 Pittsburgh 2.74
Houston 2.42 New England 1.70
Detroit 5.92 Chicago 1.20
Cleveland 1.91 Jacksonville 2.10
Carolina 2.34 New Orleans 1.75
Seattle 6.01 Tennessee 1.20
Dallas 2.06 Philadelphia 1.94
Arizona 1.54 Green Bay 2.86
Denver 1.13 Kansas City 8.54
Oakland 2.90 Baltimore 1.53
San Diego 1.03 Washington 40.2
New York J 1.87 Cincinnati 2.14
Report Floz January 1, 2010 11:26 AM GMT
correction........

Buffalo 11.2 Indianapolis 1.10
Tampa Bay 2.86 Atlanta 1.54
St Louis 10.6 San Francisco 1.10
Minnesota 1.46 New York G 3.18
Miami 1.59 Pittsburgh 2.69
Houston 2.45 New England 1.69
Detroit 6.00 Chicago 1.20
Cleveland 1.94 Jacksonville 2.07
Carolina 2.37 New Orleans 1.73
Seattle 6.08 Tennessee 1.20
Dallas 2.09 Philadelphia 1.92
Arizona 1.56 Green Bay 2.80
Denver 1.14 Kansas City 8.36
Oakland 2.94 Baltimore 1.52
San Diego 1.03 Washington 39.4
New York J 1.90 Cincinnati 2.11
Report I win every time! January 1, 2010 1:17 PM GMT
Only one bet for me this week - Miami
Report Floz January 2, 2010 1:23 PM GMT
so the prices as are -

atlanta @ 1.84
chicago @ 1.59
giants @ 4.6
miami @ 2.7
sf @ 1.33
raiders @ 5.9
philly @ 2.5
tennessee @ 1.51
san diego @ 1.53

are all taken.

i'm going to add in there

indy @ 4.6
new england @ 4.1

and i'll be back to take the bengals and saints once the markets settle.
Report Floz January 3, 2010 9:25 AM GMT
Saints @ 3.8
Bengals @ 5.2

add those in the category of Indy and New England.
Report Green Beard January 3, 2010 10:28 AM GMT
havent seen this before . . . are you up from the season by doing all this?
Report Floz January 4, 2010 3:30 PM GMT
i was. i'm not now.

week 16 and 17 destroyed me. i'll do the numbers now.
Report Floz January 4, 2010 3:40 PM GMT
week 17
5 wins +6.32 8 losses 12.14

season total

68 wins +119.31 64 losses -118.77

pathetic - a guessers result.

absolutely carved up on week 17. all 5 favs selected won. all 8 dogs selected (mostly selected cos enhanced odds on news of non-trying/reserve players) duly turned over.

all 13 favs won the games i selected in. thats pretty amazing in itself.

very dissappointed with the end result and pretty disillusioned about the way some teams went about their work from week 16 on.

if there is any justice - san diego and dallas will sweep to the superbowl.
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