ok, my take on the new orleans price.

a team that goes 8-8 will most likely go 5-3 at home or 6-2 possibly, in any event the home advantage will be very evident.

a team that goes 16-0 will go 100% for sure go 8-0 at home and in terms of win % there will be no advantage to playing home and away.

this is just an illustration that home/away advantage diminishes as you tend towards the extremes of records. arsenal's invincibles for example. derby the year they got 11 points or however many.

so the fact that new orleans is on the road is not a big issue for me.

it is definately not that my ratings system doesn't factor home advantage enough as you can see from above - i'll be playing 6 homes and 3 aways on the prices at the moment (i'll post in a minute).

now as to the absolute chance of new orleans or any team that is at around the 90% win rating.

if a 90% win rating team plays a 50% win rating team the match odds will be 1.11 9.00. this is simply a function of the 50% win rating team being a neutral adjustment (as they are the perfectly average team) to the 90% win rating teams chances.

as new orleans are currently over 90% and washington well below 50% that's how the price from the ratings gets calculated so low.

with san diego its much more a function of how poor cleveland are but same principle.

but what do i know - i'm losing..........

i do acknowledge that the prices the model throws out are counter-intuitive in some instances and until i became comfortable with it i would look at prices and think they had to be wrong.

i remember when i first used these models for betting on soccer in the 80's and liverpool at home would sometimes show as 85% chance win 13% draw and 2% lose against the lower teams. the coupon in the shop would have liverpool 1/5 (no bet with tax) the draw whatever and the away side 9/1..... they would so very very rarely go double figures and i would look at this 9/1 against my 50/1 and think i'd got something wrong. i think liverpool went 79 unbeaten at home... some of those opponents should have been 100/1 (the worser ones). chelsea eclipsed that record recently i think (infact i know cos liverpool ended it). the point being don't think your own prices are wrong cos the market disagrees.

the other comforter is that just cos i have new orleans at 1.02 doesn't mean i'm backing them at 1.02. i'm filling my boots with 1.23!!!!

Oakland @ 11
Atlanta @ 3

End the weekend with -
Minnesota @ 1.6
Baltimore @ 2.84

well i won't argue about top 10. they will almost certainly drop out after yesterday.

funny game though - dallas' d has been good recently and the offense patchy (well outright terrible v green bay and washington) yet in the meadowlands romo goes 41 off 55 for 392 with 3 td's and no interceptions. thats a nice line. they lose cos they botch two field goals and allow an 80 yard punt return.

anyway, they were probably due a loss after squeeking a couple and now the pressue is on. they could win the division or blow even a wild card. very interesting division the nfc east now. as is the afc east thanks to the dolphins............

minn o line missing starters and barely had 5 fit players according to the comms. that's something ratings can't account for game by game.

so results for thursday-sunday begining with bad at buffalo and ending with bad in arizona.

buffalo @ 2.46 (-1) (-0.81)
kc @ 3.2 (-1) (-0.63)
atlanta @ 3 (-1) (-0.67)
oakland @ 11 (+10) (+1.82)
jax @ 2.02 (+1.02) (+1.01)
indy @ 1.39 (+0.39) (+0.56)
cincy @ 1.16 (+0.16) (+0.28)
carolina @ 1.44 (+0.44) (+0.61)
miami @ 3 (+2) (+1.33)
n orleans @ 1.23 (+0.23) (+0.37)
s diego @ 1.18 (+0.18) (+0.31)
seattle @ 2 (+1) (+1)
dallas @ 1.78 (-1) (-1.12)
minnesota @ 1.6 (-1) (-1.25)

9 wins 5 loses from 7 favourite selections 2 even and 5 dogs. the big news being 5 favs won and 2 lost (dallas and minn) both even won and 2 of 5 dogs won including oakland at 11. miami at 3 the other.

level stakes 9 wins (+15.42) 5 loses (-5)
plan 9 wins (+7.29) 5 loses (-4.48)

cumulative before monday night football

level 45 wins (+45.95) 37 loses (-37) = 124.2%
plan 45 wins (+33.12) 37 loses (-32.08) = 103.2%

baltimore tonight @ 2.84 -1/+1.84 -0.70/+1.30

the first two numbers are a level stakes bet of £1. if it loses -£1 and if it wins +£1.84. the second pair of numbers are if you place the bet to a £2 differential. ie £1 at even money increasing as the odds shorten and decreasing as the odds lengthen. at a price of 2.84 calculated as stake = 2/2.84 = 70p so if it loses -£0.70 and if it wins +£1.30

i don't suspect anyone is checking up on me but i always post prices available at the time of the post. baltimore 2.84 was the price during the second half of everton's game yesterday. its longer now!!

also i realise that the -0.70/+1.30 is not technically accurate at 2.84 but i always take the stake rounded and the + is the balance to £2. some give me the rounding some take away from me the rounding.

the wins and losses quoted are on these two basis' even though sometimes i don't quote the actual figures before the game, only the price taken.

Absolutely I could do that.
I double it up as the closest equivalent of the level £1 stake.
As I then report profit / loss as percentage it's a moot point yeah.

Anyway as Baltimore capitulated last night total now -

45 wins (46.95 or 33.12)
38 loses (38 or 32.78)

Rankings after Week 13

1 Indianapolis
2 New Orleans
3 San Diego
4 Minnesota
5 Arizona
6 Philadelphia
7 Cincinnati
8 New England
9 Tennessee
10 Baltimore
11 Miami
12 Green Bay
13 Dallas
14 Denver
15 New York G
16 Jacksonville
17 New York J
18 Pittsburgh
19 Atlanta
20 Houston
21 Seattle
22 Carolina
23 San Francisco
24 Oakland
25 Chicago
26 Kansas City
27 Buffalo
28 Washington
29 Tampa Bay
30 Detroit
31 St Louis
32 Cleveland

Corrected rankings - Post Week 13

1 Indianapolis
2 New Orleans
3 San Diego
4 Minnesota
5 Arizona
6 Philadelphia
7 Cincinnati
8 New England
9 Green Bay
10 Tennessee
11 Miami
12 Dallas
13 Denver
14 New York G
15 Baltimore
16 Jacksonville
17 New York J
18 Pittsburgh
19 Atlanta
20 Houston
21 Seattle
22 Carolina
23 San Francisco
24 Oakland
25 Chicago
26 Kansas City
27 Buffalo
28 Washington
29 Tampa Bay
30 Detroit
31 St Louis
32 Cleveland

pittsburgh @ 1.19

riding indy and new orleans. so too the dolphins. arizona san diego green bay the jets and oakland hold the key.

you might have thought i'd do ok but from pittsburgh on thursday thru arizona last night its another losing week. sunday was great. the rest not so much.

8 favs selected - all 6 on sunday win but pitt and ariz kills it especially on the plan stakes.

2 evens - kc and oakland both lose. kc put up a fight at least!!!

4 dogs - san diego and miami = nice. seattle = terrible. carolina had me quite excited there at 7 for a while.

even reviewing it i can't quite see how i didn't win this week but the results are -

8 wins (+4.80 or +5.18)
6 loses (-6.00 or - 5.76)

cumulative

level - 53 wins (51.75) 44 loses (44.00) = 117.6%
plan - 53 wins (38.30) 44 loses (38.54) = 99.4%

week 15 tissue

Jacksonville 49.2 Indianapolis 1.02
New Orleans 1.03 Dallas 35.6
Baltimore 1.21 Chicago 5.86
Tennessee 1.68 Miami 2.47
St Louis 8.25 Houston 1.14
Pittsburgh 4.13 Green Bay 1.32
Philadelphia 1.22 San Francisco 5.63
New York J 1.45 Atlanta 3.23
Kansas City 1.44 Cleveland 3.28
Detroit 10.9 Arizona 1.10
Buffalo 3.50 New England 1.40
Denver 1.18 Oakland 6.44
San Diego 1.23 Cincinnati 5.35
Seattle 1.14 Tampa Bay 8.17
Carolina 5.62 Minnesota 1.22
Washington 2.72 New York G 1.58

manning to wayne for 65 yards.... Thank you.

can't understand why people aren't just riding these two teams that are undefeated. i've just been over this whole thread and some of the prices on indianapolis have been exceptional. even a loss here would have still seen me well up on them.

with that in mind and despite being an unashamed romo apologist in a different life, i unhesitatingly put up for saturday's game

New Orleans @ 1.31

are you eddie getz, orioles.

is the book about the nfl and wall street or just the nfl?

yep, saw that a poster called eddie getz put those up on a forum called the punters lounge.

ok, thanks for the recommendation. i'll treat myself to that book this crimbo.

Do you not think your system is overrating both indy and new orleans Floz? It seems unrealistic to me that any team should be 1.02 against Jacksonville or 1.03 against Dallas.

jello,
sorry - perhaps i should have worded that

how DOES one rate a 13-0 team.

so far this week

Indianapolis @ 1.57
New Orleans @ 1.31 (need to come back to this re underdog theorum)

today, lots of matches well within 10% of my prices and therefore no bet -

ones that aren't

miami @ 3.1
green bay @ 2.32
philadelphia @ 1.34
kansas city @ 1.72
oakland @ 8
san diego @ 1.36
seattle @ 1.38

monday

new york g @ 1.8

having brought forward

53 wins (+90.05) and 44 loses (-82.54)

that gives a cumulative before the Giants game tonight of -

57 wins (+101.82) 49 loses (-93.19) = 109.3%

Giants tonight is 2.11 @ 1.8