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actually not as bad as i thought -
on level stakes - 7 winners +5.12, 6 losers -6.00 = weekly -0.88 on staking plan - 7 winners +4.57, 6 losers -5.74 = weekly -1.17 running totals level - 23 wins (+22.11) 20 loses (-20.00) = +10.55% plan - 23 wins (+17.72) 20 loses (-16.92) = +4.73% mnf is a no bet for me. |
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full rankings post week 10 to follow but ahead of thursday's game
carolina 1.81 1.80 Miami 2.24 2.26 at the prices available today i'll take miami in this one. |
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thats
Miami -1.00 / +1.68 -0.75 / +1.25 |
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post week 10 rankings
from SN start / Team / Pure-Iterative 1 Indianapolis 2 2 New Orleans 1 3 Minnesota 4 4 New England 6 5 Pittsburgh 5 6 Cincinnati 3 7 Arizona 7 8 San Diego 8 9 Dallas 10 10 Atlanta 15 11 Baltimore 11 12 Miami 12 13 Houston 9 14 Carolina 13 15 Philadelphia 19 16 New York G 20 17 Tennessee 18 18 Green Bay 16 19 Denver 14 20 Jacksonville 17 21 Chicago 22 22 San Francisco 21 23 New York J 24 24 Buffalo 25 25 Seattle 23 26 Kansas City 26 27 Washington 27 28 Tampa Bay 29 29 St Louis 28 30 Cleveland 30 31 Oakland 31 32 Detroit 32 |
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fallen angel,
where are denver now on the elo? |
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Been Checking your post ; Thank's - good thread
There will allway's be other view's = good oppertunities 2 New Orleans 1 = Agree 4 New England 6 = Disagree could be 3 or 4 9 Dallas 10 /// and /// 16 New York G 20 = Dissagree atleast swap position's, Giant's 8 1 Indianapolis 2 =put back to 3 as they need work 6 Cincinnati 3 = # 13 should make the play off 's as other's in there division are inconsistant 12 Miami 12 = I like gain wild card , then Do some DAMAGE PS. Keep Up the good work, |
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well you'll be pleased miami got us off to a good start to the weekend.
they were good value odds against even on the road. |
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Sunday
Baltimore - Indianapolis 8.33/11.4 - 1.14/1.10 Tampa Bay - New Orleans 31.3/90.9 - 1.03/1.01 New York G - Atlanta 1.90/2.10 - 2.11/1.91 Minnesota - Seattle 1.09/1.10 - 12.5/11.2 Kansas City - Pittsburgh 7.63/7.94 - 1.15/1.14 Jacksonville - Buffalo 1.40/1.39 - 3.52/3.60 Green Bay - San Francisco 1.45/1.53 - 3.22/2.89 Detroit - Cleveland 2.55/2.91 - 1.64/1.52 Dallas - Washington 1.14/1.16 - 8.13/7.25 St Louis - Arizona 10.0/8.62 - 1.11/1.13 Denver - San Diego 3.11/2.46 - 1.47/1.69 New England - New York J 1.13/1.16 - 8.77/7.19 Oakland - Cincinnati 13.7/28.6 - 1.08/1.04 Chicago - Philadelphia 2.15/2.11 - 1.87/1.90 Monday Houston - Tennessee 1.62/1.40 - 2.61/3.48 |
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ok in order of shortest first the selections are
New England 1.19 New Orleans 1.21 Pittsburgh 1.21 Dallas 1.21 Minnesota 1.23 Cincinnati 1.24 Arizona 1.25 (thats a bit weird that all these favs are in such a tight 1.19 to 1.25 bracket) Indianapolis 1.85 (i know they are on the road but thats a longer price than they were to beat new england. are people that impressed with beating cleveland 16-0) Chicago 2.54 Miami 2.68 (already netted) Cleveland 2.8 (this game is for avoiding 32nd spot for good in the rankings) San Francisco 3.65 Atlanta 3.8 Buffalo 4.8 broncos/chargers and the monday night game no bets. |
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at the huge risk of speaking too early, cleveland are pounding on detroit...
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14 unanswered for the lions. 24-17!!!!
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24-24. beggars belief.
i'm checking out of that game in favour of the next most unbelievable thing. washington at dallas!!! |
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Floz 20 Nov 21:05
Pittsburgh 1.21 Cleveland 2.8 Atlanta 3.8 Buffalo 4.8 some weeks you can't buy a break. absolutely sick but you do have to love the nfl. |
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New England 1.19 +0.19 or +0.32
New Orleans 1.21 +0.21 or +0.35 Pittsburgh 1.21 -1.00 or -1.65 Dallas 1.21 +0.21 or +0.35 Minnesota 1.23 +0.23 or +0.37 Cincinnati 1.24 -1.00 or -1.61 Arizona 1.25 +0.25 or +0.40 Indianapolis 1.85 +0.85 or +0.92 Chicago 2.54 -1.00 or -0.79 Miami 2.68 +1.68 or +1.25 Cleveland 2.8 -1.00 or -0.71 San Francisco 3.65 -1.00 or -0.55 Atlanta 3.8 -1.00 or -0.53 Buffalo 4.8 -1.00 or -0.42 Weekly totals 7 wins 7 losses. +3.62 -7.00 or +3.96 -6.26 selecting 8 favs and 6 dogs, a 7-7 record is just not good enough really. of the 7 shorts i would expect 1 to lose but pittsburgh and cincinnati going down and especially in the circumstances was pretty hard luck. how many consecutive weeks did i take the raiders until this one??? with the dogs i'm gutted only miami got over the line. everyone bar san fran had a shot. |
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Cumulative
30 wins +25.73 27 losses -27.00 (95.3%) 30 wins +21.68 27 losses -23.18 (93.5%) pathetic. uphill climb from here. |
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as of tuesday 24th november - pre american publication poll results.
sn start / team / pure iterative 1 indianapolis 1 2 new orleans 2 3 minnesota 3 4 new england 5 5 san diego 4 6 arizona 6 7 dallas 8 8 miami 9 9 pittsburgh 10 10 tennessee 12 11 cincinnati 7 12 new york g 16 13 philadelphia 13 14 baltimore 11 15 green bay 14 16 atlanta 19 17 jacksonville 15 18 houston 17 19 carolina 20 20 denver 18 21 kansas city 21 22 chicago 26 23 san francisco 22 24 new york j 24 25 seattle 25 26 buffalo 27 27 oakland 23 28 washington 28 29 tampa bay 30 30 st louis 29 31 detroit 31 32 cleveland 32 |
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Happy Thanksgiving everyone.
Detroit 6.62 5.99 Green Bay 1.18 1.20 Dallas 1.13 1.20 Oakland 8.62 6.10 Denver 2.37 1.93 New York G 1.73 2.07 |
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no bet
no bet denver at 3.75 thats interesting. i'm happy to neither back or field against the two shorties and particularly at mile high i like being against the giants at 1.36 on the road off of a squeeker against the falcons. |
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Good luck , FLOZ
Packer's Raider's to make a joke out-off the Cowboy's and in the Hard one, Heart say's : Bronco's, Mind say's : Giant's |
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Floz, Good luck tonight, my ELO had Dallas at 1.15 and Green Bay at 1.21 so neither of these games are a bet for me. I would normally back Denver because the ELO has got them around 2.8, however with the injury to Orton there is just too much uncertainty and the back-up playing would make the 1.42 on NYG look very big in light of last weeks performance. Hope you do well, not going with the model this time round as Denver looked appalling last week.
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1.16 1.21 Atlanta 7.41 5.78 Tampa Bay
2.43 2.45 St Louis 1.70 1.69 Seattle 1.16 1.19 Philadelphia 7.25 6.33 Washington 2.38 2.27 New York J 1.72 1.79 Carolina 15.4 25.6 Houston 1.07 1.04 Indianapolis 1.04 1.03 Cincinnati 25.6 34.5 Cleveland 4.76 4.90 Buffalo 1.27 1.26 Miami 1.16 1.17 San Diego 7.41 6.85 Kansas City 2.23 2.66 San Fran 1.81 1.60 Jacksonville 2.26 2.41 Tennessee 1.79 1.71 Arizona 1.11 1.07 Minnesota 10.4 14.7 Chicago 1.94 1.71 Baltimore 2.07 2.41 Pittsburgh 1.28 1.08 N Orleans 4.63 13.7 New England |
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Lifetaker,
how do you rate the raiders recent win? i'm not sure i'd want to be siding with the raiders at the odds. the handicap is a completely different matter. i find the +13.5 or whatever it is ridiculous considering the cowboys scoring record in the last two games. On balance i expect the cowboy to sneak the win. re the broncos i'm banking on the home field being a big factor. Fallen Angel, so ELO and my home brewed system are chucking out very similar prices for those first two games. thats cool. with denver and the giants and the system prices, i'm happy despite denver injuries as denver have taken a dive in the ratings and are now properly pegged and the giants for me didn't prove they are out of their slump with an OT victory. solid odds on on the road team in a game between two 6-4 teams can't be too good value can it? |
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Floz ,
Sometimes all it takes, is a Win to Lift a team. Hope they are switched on. The Cowboy's , I think have been Massive Dissapppointment's All season. They are lucky that the Gaint's & Eagle's haven't been Focused. I've compared them with the Panther's , So many mistakes in early part of season. Infact the only game they were any good was against the Falcon's, & if you include the seahawk game that = 2. To be held out by the Redskin's till the last minutes of the game , & then winning by a single point with a TD. CONFIRM"S it for me. Haven't & WONT be on the Cowboy's this year. |
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broncos by easier than i thought.
are the giants out of the play-off picture? |
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Atlanta Tampa Bay - no bet
St Louis @ 2.56 Philadelphia @ 1.27 Carolina @ 2.6 Indianapolis @ 1.58 Cincinnati @ 1.15 Miami @ 1.58 San Diego Kansas City - no bet Jacksonville @ 2.66 Arizona @ 2.34 Minnesota @ 1.21 i'll come back to these two although new orleans will defo be the play - 1.94 1.71 Baltimore 2.07 2.41 Pittsburgh 1.28 1.08 N Orleans 4.63 13.7 New England |
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new orleans @ 1.84
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late sunday game = no bet.
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Denver @ 3.75 +2.75 +1.47
St Louis @ 2.56 -1.00 -0.78 Philadelphia @ 1.27 +0.27 +0.43 Carolina @ 2.6 -1.00 -0.77 Indianapolis @ 1.58 +0.58 +0.73 Cincinnati @ 1.15 +0.15 +0.26 Miami @ 1.58 -1.00 -1.27 Jacksonville @ 2.66 -1.00 -0.75 Arizona @ 2.34 -1.00 -0.85 Minnesota @ 1.21 +0.21 +0.35 New orleans @ 1.84 +0.84 +0.91 so another ridiculous losing week. that arizona loss kills me. i'm actually excited for tennessee and i hope they go and win next week too and get in the play-offs but converting 3 fourth downs when you're on the underdog to win on the last play of the game is beyond a joke. 6 favs - only miami let me down 5 wins +2.05 1 loss -1.00 or 5 wins +2.68 1 loss -1.27 5 dogs and only denver obliged 1 win +2.75 4 losses -4.00 or 1 win +1.47 4 losses -3.15 weekly total 6 wins +4.80 5 losses -5.00 or 6 wins +4.15 5 losses -4.42 |
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cumulative
level 36 wins (30.53) 32 losses (32.00) - 95.4% plan 36 wins (25.83) 32 losses (27.60) - 93.6% |
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now we've had the first week after the bye weeks are complete i'm combining the two tables to one combined ranking -
1. Indianapolis 2. New Orleans 3. Minnesota 4. San Diego 5. New England 6. Dallas 7. Tennessee 8. Cincinnati 9. Arizona 10. Baltimore 11. Philadelphia 12. Green Bay 13. Pittsburgh 14. Miami 15. Denver 16. Atlanta 17. New York G 18. Houston 19. San Francisco 20. Jacksonville 21. New York J 22. Carolina 23. Buffalo 24. Kansas City 25. Seattle 26. Chicago 27. Oakland 28. Washington 29. Tampa Bay 30. Detroit 31. St Louis 32. Cleveland |
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I am very suprised you have got Indianapolis still above New Orleans especially as the fixed point of the Patriots was comprehensively answered yesterday. Other than that Rankings appear to be converging with the conference tables which is a positive (same happening with my ELOs)
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i'm kind of surprised too.
the figures are - Indy started on the SN calculation at 12-4 (.750) New Orleans started at 9-7 (.5625) they are now at indianapolis .951 and new orleans .929 on the pure they obviously both started at .500 they are now at new orleans .756 indianapolis .752 re-iterating these ratings with the same 'weekly movement from expected' factor as the SN start point rankings we get to new orleans .949 and indianapolis .947 so new orleans would be ranked 1 in my pure/iterative rankings. having decided to combine for better or for worse i get indianapolis .949 and new orleans .939 if you are interested minnesota .820 san diego .765 new england .720 dallas .683 tennessee .662 etc etc so much bigger gaps starting to be in evidence even only as far down as 6th/7th. tennesse are the really interesting one's. on the pure they are 13th but when you iterate it they move up to 8th and 7th when you combine. on the face of it 7th for a team that is 5-6 is way off but it makes sense to me the way i do the rankings. if they knock the colts off i see them as 4th. if the colts win they extend their lead over new orleans. i'm really looking forward to this match. as 11-0 v 5-6 matches go this is unique. |
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thursday's game
buffalo 1.64 new york J 2.56 |
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weird.
i'll take that now buffalo @ 2.47 |
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slip of the finger
BUFFALO @ 2.46 !!!!!!! |
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Dallas @6. PMSL
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where are they in the US polls?
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sporting news have them ........... 5!
thats pushing it. i prefer 6. |
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New York G 2.55 1.64 Dallas
Atlanta 1.90 2.11 Philadelphia Washington 41.7 1.02 New Orleans Pittsburgh 1.21 5.71 Oakland Kansas City 2.27 1.79 Denver Jacksonville 1.77 2.30 Houston Indianapolis 1.08 14.1 Tennessee Cincinnati 1.07 14.7 Detroit Chicago 1.23 5.41 St Louis Carolina 1.23 5.35 Tampa Bay Miami 2.58 1.63 New England Cleveland 26.3 1.04 San Diego Seattle 1.90 2.11 San Francisco Arizona 2.82 1.55 Minnesota Green Bay 1.78 2.28 Baltimore |
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Floz, are these power rating prices you are putting up? New Orleans however good they are and San Diego appear to be way to short considering both teams are way from home. Last look NO were a 1.22 shot at washington on here.
Otherwise you are going to be having a big bet on both these sides. Keep up the good work, will be interested to see who you have going into the play-offs, do you have an antepost Superbowl bet? |