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NFL Power Ratings (courtesy of FLOZ)

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Replies: 175
By:
Floz
When: 16 Nov 09 09:48
actually not as bad as i thought -

on level stakes - 7 winners +5.12, 6 losers -6.00 = weekly -0.88

on staking plan - 7 winners +4.57, 6 losers -5.74 = weekly -1.17

running totals

level - 23 wins (+22.11) 20 loses (-20.00) = +10.55%
plan - 23 wins (+17.72) 20 loses (-16.92) = +4.73%

mnf is a no bet for me.
By:
Floz
When: 18 Nov 09 18:29
full rankings post week 10 to follow but ahead of thursday's game

carolina 1.81 1.80 Miami 2.24 2.26

at the prices available today i'll take miami in this one.
By:
Floz
When: 18 Nov 09 18:31
thats

Miami -1.00 / +1.68 -0.75 / +1.25
By:
Floz
When: 19 Nov 09 17:45
post week 10 rankings

from SN start / Team / Pure-Iterative

1 Indianapolis 2
2 New Orleans 1
3 Minnesota 4
4 New England 6
5 Pittsburgh 5
6 Cincinnati 3
7 Arizona 7
8 San Diego 8
9 Dallas 10
10 Atlanta 15
11 Baltimore 11
12 Miami 12
13 Houston 9
14 Carolina 13
15 Philadelphia 19
16 New York G 20
17 Tennessee 18
18 Green Bay 16
19 Denver 14
20 Jacksonville 17
21 Chicago 22
22 San Francisco 21
23 New York J 24
24 Buffalo 25
25 Seattle 23
26 Kansas City 26
27 Washington 27
28 Tampa Bay 29
29 St Louis 28
30 Cleveland 30
31 Oakland 31
32 Detroit 32
By:
Floz
When: 19 Nov 09 17:46
fallen angel,
where are denver now on the elo?
By:
Lifetaker
When: 19 Nov 09 22:29
Been Checking your post ; Thank's - good thread
There will allway's be other view's = good oppertunities

2 New Orleans 1 = Agree
4 New England 6 = Disagree could be 3 or 4
9 Dallas 10 /// and /// 16 New York G 20 = Dissagree atleast swap position's, Giant's 8
1 Indianapolis 2 =put back to 3 as they need work
6 Cincinnati 3 = # 13 should make the play off 's as other's in there division are inconsistant
12 Miami 12 = I like gain wild card , then Do some DAMAGE

PS. Keep Up the good work,
By:
Floz
When: 20 Nov 09 13:19
well you'll be pleased miami got us off to a good start to the weekend.

they were good value odds against even on the road.
By:
Floz
When: 20 Nov 09 13:34
Sunday

Baltimore - Indianapolis 8.33/11.4 - 1.14/1.10
Tampa Bay - New Orleans 31.3/90.9 - 1.03/1.01
New York G - Atlanta 1.90/2.10 - 2.11/1.91
Minnesota - Seattle 1.09/1.10 - 12.5/11.2
Kansas City - Pittsburgh 7.63/7.94 - 1.15/1.14
Jacksonville - Buffalo 1.40/1.39 - 3.52/3.60
Green Bay - San Francisco 1.45/1.53 - 3.22/2.89
Detroit - Cleveland 2.55/2.91 - 1.64/1.52
Dallas - Washington 1.14/1.16 - 8.13/7.25
St Louis - Arizona 10.0/8.62 - 1.11/1.13
Denver - San Diego 3.11/2.46 - 1.47/1.69
New England - New York J 1.13/1.16 - 8.77/7.19
Oakland - Cincinnati 13.7/28.6 - 1.08/1.04
Chicago - Philadelphia 2.15/2.11 - 1.87/1.90

Monday

Houston - Tennessee 1.62/1.40 - 2.61/3.48
By:
Floz
When: 20 Nov 09 20:05
ok in order of shortest first the selections are

New England 1.19
New Orleans 1.21
Pittsburgh 1.21
Dallas 1.21
Minnesota 1.23
Cincinnati 1.24
Arizona 1.25 (thats a bit weird that all these favs are in such a tight 1.19 to 1.25 bracket)

Indianapolis 1.85 (i know they are on the road but thats a longer price than they were to beat new england. are people that impressed with beating cleveland 16-0)

Chicago 2.54
Miami 2.68 (already netted)
Cleveland 2.8 (this game is for avoiding 32nd spot for good in the rankings)
San Francisco 3.65
Atlanta 3.8
Buffalo 4.8

broncos/chargers and the monday night game no bets.
By:
Floz
When: 22 Nov 09 17:45
at the huge risk of speaking too early, cleveland are pounding on detroit...
By:
Floz
When: 22 Nov 09 18:17
14 unanswered for the lions. 24-17!!!!
By:
Floz
When: 22 Nov 09 18:20
24-24. beggars belief.

i'm checking out of that game in favour of the next most unbelievable thing. washington at dallas!!!
By:
Floz
When: 22 Nov 09 20:31
Floz 20 Nov 21:05

Pittsburgh 1.21

Cleveland 2.8

Atlanta 3.8

Buffalo 4.8



some weeks you can't buy a break. absolutely sick but you do have to love the nfl.
By:
Floz
When: 23 Nov 09 10:07
New England 1.19 +0.19 or +0.32
New Orleans 1.21 +0.21 or +0.35
Pittsburgh 1.21 -1.00 or -1.65
Dallas 1.21 +0.21 or +0.35
Minnesota 1.23 +0.23 or +0.37
Cincinnati 1.24 -1.00 or -1.61
Arizona 1.25 +0.25 or +0.40
Indianapolis 1.85 +0.85 or +0.92
Chicago 2.54 -1.00 or -0.79
Miami 2.68 +1.68 or +1.25
Cleveland 2.8 -1.00 or -0.71
San Francisco 3.65 -1.00 or -0.55
Atlanta 3.8 -1.00 or -0.53
Buffalo 4.8 -1.00 or -0.42

Weekly totals 7 wins 7 losses. +3.62 -7.00 or +3.96 -6.26

selecting 8 favs and 6 dogs, a 7-7 record is just not good enough really. of the 7 shorts i would expect 1 to lose but pittsburgh and cincinnati going down and especially in the circumstances was pretty hard luck. how many consecutive weeks did i take the raiders until this one???

with the dogs i'm gutted only miami got over the line. everyone bar san fran had a shot.
By:
Floz
When: 23 Nov 09 10:12
Cumulative

30 wins +25.73 27 losses -27.00 (95.3%)
30 wins +21.68 27 losses -23.18 (93.5%)

pathetic. uphill climb from here.
By:
Floz
When: 24 Nov 09 09:46
as of tuesday 24th november - pre american publication poll results.

sn start / team / pure iterative

1 indianapolis 1
2 new orleans 2
3 minnesota 3
4 new england 5
5 san diego 4
6 arizona 6
7 dallas 8
8 miami 9
9 pittsburgh 10
10 tennessee 12
11 cincinnati 7
12 new york g 16
13 philadelphia 13
14 baltimore 11
15 green bay 14
16 atlanta 19
17 jacksonville 15
18 houston 17
19 carolina 20
20 denver 18
21 kansas city 21
22 chicago 26
23 san francisco 22
24 new york j 24
25 seattle 25
26 buffalo 27
27 oakland 23
28 washington 28
29 tampa bay 30
30 st louis 29
31 detroit 31
32 cleveland 32
By:
Floz
When: 25 Nov 09 15:36
Happy Thanksgiving everyone.

Detroit 6.62 5.99 Green Bay 1.18 1.20

Dallas 1.13 1.20 Oakland 8.62 6.10

Denver 2.37 1.93 New York G 1.73 2.07
By:
Floz
When: 25 Nov 09 15:43
no bet
no bet
denver at 3.75

thats interesting. i'm happy to neither back or field against the two shorties and particularly at mile high i like being against the giants at 1.36 on the road off of a squeeker against the falcons.
By:
Lifetaker
When: 25 Nov 09 23:43
Good luck , FLOZ
Packer's
Raider's to make a joke out-off the Cowboy's
and in the Hard one, Heart say's : Bronco's, Mind say's : Giant's
By:
Fallen Angel
When: 26 Nov 09 08:42
Floz, Good luck tonight, my ELO had Dallas at 1.15 and Green Bay at 1.21 so neither of these games are a bet for me. I would normally back Denver because the ELO has got them around 2.8, however with the injury to Orton there is just too much uncertainty and the back-up playing would make the 1.42 on NYG look very big in light of last weeks performance. Hope you do well, not going with the model this time round as Denver looked appalling last week.
By:
Floz
When: 26 Nov 09 15:34
1.16 1.21 Atlanta 7.41 5.78 Tampa Bay
2.43 2.45 St Louis 1.70 1.69 Seattle
1.16 1.19 Philadelphia 7.25 6.33 Washington
2.38 2.27 New York J 1.72 1.79 Carolina
15.4 25.6 Houston 1.07 1.04 Indianapolis
1.04 1.03 Cincinnati 25.6 34.5 Cleveland
4.76 4.90 Buffalo 1.27 1.26 Miami
1.16 1.17 San Diego 7.41 6.85 Kansas City
2.23 2.66 San Fran 1.81 1.60 Jacksonville
2.26 2.41 Tennessee 1.79 1.71 Arizona
1.11 1.07 Minnesota 10.4 14.7 Chicago
1.94 1.71 Baltimore 2.07 2.41 Pittsburgh
1.28 1.08 N Orleans 4.63 13.7 New England
By:
Floz
When: 26 Nov 09 16:05
Lifetaker,

how do you rate the raiders recent win? i'm not sure i'd want to be siding with the raiders at the odds. the handicap is a completely different matter. i find the +13.5 or whatever it is ridiculous considering the cowboys scoring record in the last two games. On balance i expect the cowboy to sneak the win. re the broncos i'm banking on the home field being a big factor.

Fallen Angel,

so ELO and my home brewed system are chucking out very similar prices for those first two games. thats cool. with denver and the giants and the system prices, i'm happy despite denver injuries as denver have taken a dive in the ratings and are now properly pegged and the giants for me didn't prove they are out of their slump with an OT victory. solid odds on on the road team in a game between two 6-4 teams can't be too good value can it?
By:
Lifetaker
When: 26 Nov 09 17:34
Floz ,
Sometimes all it takes, is a Win to Lift a team. Hope they are switched on.
The Cowboy's , I think have been Massive Dissapppointment's All season. They are lucky that the Gaint's & Eagle's haven't been Focused.
I've compared them with the Panther's , So many mistakes in early part of season. Infact the only game they were any good was against the Falcon's, & if you include the seahawk game that = 2.
To be held out by the Redskin's till the last minutes of the game , & then winning by a single point with a TD. CONFIRM"S it for me. Haven't & WONT be on the Cowboy's this year.
By:
Floz
When: 27 Nov 09 13:22
broncos by easier than i thought.

are the giants out of the play-off picture?
By:
Floz
When: 27 Nov 09 18:06
Atlanta Tampa Bay - no bet
St Louis @ 2.56
Philadelphia @ 1.27
Carolina @ 2.6
Indianapolis @ 1.58
Cincinnati @ 1.15
Miami @ 1.58
San Diego Kansas City - no bet
Jacksonville @ 2.66
Arizona @ 2.34
Minnesota @ 1.21


i'll come back to these two although new orleans will defo be the play -
1.94 1.71 Baltimore 2.07 2.41 Pittsburgh
1.28 1.08 N Orleans 4.63 13.7 New England
By:
Floz
When: 28 Nov 09 10:56
new orleans @ 1.84
By:
Floz
When: 28 Nov 09 11:05
late sunday game = no bet.
By:
Floz
When: 01 Dec 09 17:16
Denver @ 3.75 +2.75 +1.47
St Louis @ 2.56 -1.00 -0.78
Philadelphia @ 1.27 +0.27 +0.43
Carolina @ 2.6 -1.00 -0.77
Indianapolis @ 1.58 +0.58 +0.73
Cincinnati @ 1.15 +0.15 +0.26
Miami @ 1.58 -1.00 -1.27
Jacksonville @ 2.66 -1.00 -0.75
Arizona @ 2.34 -1.00 -0.85
Minnesota @ 1.21 +0.21 +0.35
New orleans @ 1.84 +0.84 +0.91

so another ridiculous losing week. that arizona loss kills me. i'm actually excited for tennessee and i hope they go and win next week too and get in the play-offs but converting 3 fourth downs when you're on the underdog to win on the last play of the game is beyond a joke.

6 favs - only miami let me down 5 wins +2.05 1 loss -1.00 or 5 wins +2.68 1 loss -1.27

5 dogs and only denver obliged 1 win +2.75 4 losses -4.00 or 1 win +1.47 4 losses -3.15

weekly total 6 wins +4.80 5 losses -5.00 or 6 wins +4.15 5 losses
-4.42
By:
Floz
When: 01 Dec 09 17:19
cumulative

level
36 wins (30.53) 32 losses (32.00) - 95.4%

plan
36 wins (25.83) 32 losses (27.60) - 93.6%
By:
Floz
When: 01 Dec 09 17:32
now we've had the first week after the bye weeks are complete i'm combining the two tables to one combined ranking -

1. Indianapolis
2. New Orleans
3. Minnesota
4. San Diego
5. New England
6. Dallas
7. Tennessee
8. Cincinnati
9. Arizona
10. Baltimore
11. Philadelphia
12. Green Bay
13. Pittsburgh
14. Miami
15. Denver
16. Atlanta
17. New York G
18. Houston
19. San Francisco
20. Jacksonville
21. New York J
22. Carolina
23. Buffalo
24. Kansas City
25. Seattle
26. Chicago
27. Oakland
28. Washington
29. Tampa Bay
30. Detroit
31. St Louis
32. Cleveland
By:
Fallen Angel
When: 01 Dec 09 18:24
I am very suprised you have got Indianapolis still above New Orleans especially as the fixed point of the Patriots was comprehensively answered yesterday. Other than that Rankings appear to be converging with the conference tables which is a positive (same happening with my ELOs)
By:
Floz
When: 02 Dec 09 09:28
i'm kind of surprised too.

the figures are -

Indy started on the SN calculation at 12-4 (.750)
New Orleans started at 9-7 (.5625)

they are now at indianapolis .951 and new orleans .929

on the pure they obviously both started at .500

they are now at new orleans .756 indianapolis .752

re-iterating these ratings with the same 'weekly movement from expected' factor as the SN start point rankings we get to new orleans .949 and indianapolis .947

so new orleans would be ranked 1 in my pure/iterative rankings.

having decided to combine for better or for worse i get indianapolis .949 and new orleans .939

if you are interested minnesota .820 san diego .765 new england .720 dallas .683 tennessee .662 etc etc so much bigger gaps starting to be in evidence even only as far down as 6th/7th.

tennesse are the really interesting one's. on the pure they are 13th but when you iterate it they move up to 8th and 7th when you combine. on the face of it 7th for a team that is 5-6 is way off but it makes sense to me the way i do the rankings. if they knock the colts off i see them as 4th. if the colts win they extend their lead over new orleans. i'm really looking forward to this match. as 11-0 v 5-6 matches go this is unique.
By:
Floz
When: 02 Dec 09 09:41
thursday's game

buffalo 1.64 new york J 2.56
By:
Floz
When: 02 Dec 09 09:45
weird.

i'll take that now

buffalo @ 2.47
By:
Floz
When: 02 Dec 09 09:51
slip of the finger

BUFFALO @ 2.46 !!!!!!!
By:
CJ
When: 02 Dec 09 11:21
Dallas @6. PMSL
By:
Floz
When: 02 Dec 09 12:42
where are they in the US polls?
By:
Floz
When: 02 Dec 09 12:49
sporting news have them ........... 5!

thats pushing it. i prefer 6.
By:
Floz
When: 04 Dec 09 14:37
New York G 2.55 1.64 Dallas
Atlanta 1.90 2.11 Philadelphia
Washington 41.7 1.02 New Orleans
Pittsburgh 1.21 5.71 Oakland
Kansas City 2.27 1.79 Denver
Jacksonville 1.77 2.30 Houston
Indianapolis 1.08 14.1 Tennessee
Cincinnati 1.07 14.7 Detroit
Chicago 1.23 5.41 St Louis
Carolina 1.23 5.35 Tampa Bay
Miami 2.58 1.63 New England
Cleveland 26.3 1.04 San Diego
Seattle 1.90 2.11 San Francisco
Arizona 2.82 1.55 Minnesota
Green Bay 1.78 2.28 Baltimore
By:
Fallen Angel
When: 04 Dec 09 14:56
Floz, are these power rating prices you are putting up? New Orleans however good they are and San Diego appear to be way to short considering both teams are way from home. Last look NO were a 1.22 shot at washington on here.

Otherwise you are going to be having a big bet on both these sides.

Keep up the good work, will be interested to see who you have going into the play-offs, do you have an antepost Superbowl bet?
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