mvaughan

A devastating spell of fast bowling from Mitchell Johnson has left England in deep trouble and another super effort from the left-arm quick would give England no chance. But big totals have been chased at Perth before so England aren't out of it just yet.


Anyone looking at the scores Australia and England mustered in their first innings at Perth could be forgiven for thinking this is a pitch with some serious demons. I'm not sure that's the case though. Australia succumbed to some fine bowling from the likes of Chris Tremlett and James Anderson on a day when England also fielded extremely well, taking almost every catch that was up for grabs.

As far as England's first innings went, it was simply the 'Mitchell Johnson story' this afternoon. Having bowled erratically in the first Test he bowled absolutely beautifully all day today: full, quick and at times getting the ball to swing, something that no-one else has managed to do. England will look back at some of their dismissals and consider them to be rather soft which just further backs up my original point - this pitch is a better one than those two first innings totals suggest.

It's an obvious thing to say but tomorrow's early exchanges will be absolutely crucial. To have any chance of not losing the Test England will have to break up the Shane Watson/Mike Hussey partnership early, hope the wicket stays quick for the first couple of sessions, dismiss Australia within 40 overs and then hope the pitch slows down a little when they bat again. Pretty straightforward then!

We saw South Africa chase down 414 here a couple of years ago, only losing four wickets in the process, but for England to do so would be a huge ask.

England fans can take some comfort from the fact that in recent times Australia have thrown away some really strong positions but they'll have to bowl out of their skins, take every chance that comes their way and hope for a little bit of good fortune too. I can envisage Australia getting to 300 runs in their second innings, which is around 1.65 to back, and setting England just under 400 to chase. If they get off to a good start and the Aussies start to panic you never know, but if Johnson can bowl anything like he did the first time then I'm afraid the Series will be tied at 1-1 going to Melbourne.

Ian Bell looked pretty good again on his way to another half-century before chasing a wide one and being caught. Whether he's promoted up the order at some stage with Paul Colingwood dropping down to six remains to be seen. Bell's playing beautifully and the last thing England want is to have him stuck batting with the tail again, but my gut instinct is that he'll come in his usual slot this time round and maybe move up the order in the next match if Colly fails to get runs again. In the meanwhile, the man they call the 'Sherminator' gets the nod to top score again in the second innings at 6.0.

Recommended Bets:

Back Australia to score over 300 runs in their second innings at 1.65
Back Ian Bell to top score for England in their second innings at 6.0


(Read Michael Vaughan’s Ashes opinions by visiting http://betting.betfair.com/cricket/ashes-betting/)

Perth has the reputation for being the quickest and bounciest wicket on the planet but I have a feeling we're going to get a pretty good strip for this Third Test. It's all well and good people talking about it having plenty of grass on it right now but the only thing that matters is the state of it on the first morning.

These days playing to the strengths of the home side isn't the only consideration the curator has; TV viewing figures and sponsorship deals are a big part of modern day cricket and preparing a pitch that takes the Test match deep into day five is now part of the job spec.

So once we've established we're likely to get a good track, who will benefit the most from it? The answer has to be the more settled side, with the most in-form players, whose confidence is higher. In other words, England. I've discussed the chopping and changing that's gone on with Australia already and I've been involved in cricket long enough to know that a Mitchell Johnson or a Ben Hilfenhaus could bowl a spell out of the blue that could put the Aussies in the driving seat, just as Peter Siddle did at Brisbane. But it's unlikely and Ricky Ponting would need to be fortunate with both the toss and the wicket for a scenario to develop where they could take 20 wickets.

That means there are two very obvious bets available. The first would be a straightforward lay of Australia at 2.7. If the wicket is the belter we expect it to be and England (very much in the driving seat given they're 1-0 up in the Series) adopt a conservative approach, we could easily get the second stalemate of the Series here which would be good enough for us to collect.

The second option is to take England at 1.94 on the draw/no bet market. It's what the snooker commentators would call 'a shot to nothing'. I honestly can't see Australia winning so essentially you're getting almost even money with your stake back if it ends a draw.

I've been in pretty good form when it comes to picking the winners for top batsman honours so far this Series with Ian Bell (7.0) and Kevin Pietersen (5.2) coming good in the first innings of the first two Tests, so let's hope we can improve on that record further.

I've seen Kevin Pietersen in this sort of form before and all I can say is it spells bad news for the opposition's bowlers. He feels invincible at the moment right now and I wouldn't be surprised to see him outscore his team-mates again.

Ricky Ponting is under more pressure right now than at any other stage of his career and that could affect his performance out in the middle. He's too good a player to dismiss completely so I'm not suggesting you lay the Aussie skipper but I'd rather side with Mike Hussey. This is his home ground and he looks back to his organised, disciplined, confident best. He may well come in with not too many runs on the board and therefore not much to beat if England make the most of the new ball, so my money is on him.

Recommended Bets:

Back England at 1.94 on the draw/no bet market.
Back Kevin Pietersen to top score for England in the first innings at 5.2
Back Mike Hussey to top score for Australia in the first innings at 5.5

For more great Ashes content, visit http://betting.betfair.com/cricket/ashes-betting/

Good things were expected by the English fans and media from the likes of Graeme Swann, James Anderson and Jonathan Trott ahead of this Ashes series but that wasn't necessarily the case with Alastair Cook. The Essex man struggled badly for runs over the summer and it was only that slightly fortunate century against Pakistan that kept him in the side.

'Cookie' looks a different player at the moment now though and has defied his critics as he's shot to the head of the 'runs scored' table with over 100 more than his nearest rival (on either side) - Mike Hussey. His resilient 67 in the first innings of the First Test kept England in the game, his 235 not out in the second innings ensured an England defeat was out of the question. Then there was the small matter of another big hundred in the Second Test after his opening partner Andrew Strauss got out cheaply, which set up England's win.

The transformation has been a remarkable one. I've spent some time with him in the nets over the past few days and can see big improvements in his technique, most notably the fact he's moving his feet more. He also comes across as confident and relaxed, two priceless assets for an opening batsman.

The cynics would say Australia's bowling hasn't been up to much and that a better attack would have caused him more problems. Perhaps, but you can only score runs against the opposition in front of you. Where he's been slightly fortunate is that with the exception of that first morning at Brisbane, the ball hasn't swung. It's when it's bending like a boomerang that Cook has really struggled, as he did against the likes of Mohammed Asif and Mohammad Amir in the summer. But then again, most openers find it hard batting in those conditions.

His form in the Tests will have some championing his return to the ODI Team, especially with the World Cup coming up, but a comeback in the 50-over format may not be as simple as that. Andrew Strauss and Steven Davies are the established opening pair at the moment. It's unlikely Strauss will bat lower down the order and the England management seem to like Davies' aggressive approach against the new ball with the fielding restrictions in place so I'm not sure where Cook fits into the equation. He'll just have to wait for another chance and make the most of it if it comes along.

A final word on his prospects as the future Test captain. He's been talked about as Strauss' successor almost since he first broke into the team and one can see why, which is the reason he was given the vice-captaincy. But it's anyone's guess how long Strauss will stay in the job - at the moment the team are going through a purple patch, Strauss is playing well and looks extremely fit. If by the time he decides to call it a day Cook is out of the side or his place is under pressure, the ECB may decide to look elsewhere. Ian Bell has become an increasingly confident cricketer with a good tactical brain whilst Stuart Broad is an integral part of the side and has the type of strong personality to deal with the pressures of the job, so he may be one of those putting his hand up for consideration too. In a hypothetical world, if Strauss decided he'd had enough at the end of this Ashes Series then yes, Cook would probably get the job, but a lot could happen between now and the time the ECB have to make that decision.

For more great Ashes content go to http://betting.betfair.com/cricket/ashes-betting/

Anyone watching the Second Ashes Test on TV last night will have seen Stuart Broad in some discomfort as he bowled - but it's actually a lot worse than many might think

The initial signs are that he'll play no further part in the Series due to the stomach injury he has sustained.

If he is indeed ruled out for the rest of the Series, that will be a bitter pill for England to swallow. It makes it even more imperative that they win tomorrow and go 1-0 up given they'll probably have to make do without such a key player for the remaining three Tests.

You can read more by visiting my Ashes pages on Betting.Betfair at http://betting.betfair.com/cricket/ashes-betting/michael-vaughan/

I was certainly on the money when I tipped double centurion Kevin Pietersen to top score for England in their first innings at 5.2. As was KP himself, when he dismissed Michael Clarke with the very last ball of the fourth day, a wicket that could prove to have a huge impact on this Test match and indeed the whole of the Series. If the Aussie vice-captain and Michael Hussey were at the crease and well set at the start of day five I'd strongly fancy the draw because those two can bat and bat and with overs expected to be lost to the weather, Australia would fancy their own chances of holding out for a priceless draw.

This way England will be bowling at a new batsman first thing in the morning and, in Marcus North, one who has had trouble in the past dealing with the off-spin of Graeme Swann. Next in after that is Brad Haddin - a fantastic batsman when it comes to going on the attack and scoring quickly but I'm not sure that a scenario where he just has to stick around all day would be tailor-made for the sort of player he is.

I've spoken before about how Graeme Swann was seen by many as the key player on either side and how so much was expected of him in this Series after his performances over the last couple of years. He had an indifferent First Test but he's come back here and shown people what he's all about. Being given the ball early on by his skipper on the final day of an Ashes Test Match and being asked to bowl Australia out on a pitch that's turning will have been the sort of situation Swanny will have dreamt of and he'll relish the challenge and the chance to shine in the spotlight.

The wicket of Hussey will of course be the key but if the weather allows England to get 40 or more overs in, I really like England's chances at 2.1. And if you believe in omens, here's one for you. When we won that famous Second Test at Edgbaston in 2005, we also managed to dismiss Michael Clarke with the last ball of the fourth day so maybe the more superstitious members of the England dressing room will remember that and see it as a good sign.

People will have their own thoughts on whether Andrew Strauss' declaration came too late, many feeling there was no need to bat at all at the start of the fourth day. As ever when it comes to these sorts of decisions, the proof will be in the pudding. If England wrap up this Test it will be seen as the right decision, if they run out of time trying to dismiss the tail end, Strauss will be seen as having been too cautious and he'll have to take some criticism.

So here we are in Adelaide, venue of one of England's most heart-breaking Ashes defeats of all. Four years ago England appeared to have batted Australia out of the game only for Shane Warne to rip through Andrew Flintoff's line-up and for the home team to chase a challenging total in quickfire time. The fact that it produced a result has to therefore be taken with a pinch of salt; the draw was the most likely outcome for the vast majority of the game and only the genius of Warne and England's brittle batting stopped the stalemate from happening. But Hollywood's sole contribution will be coming from the commentary box this time while England are less prone to collapses these days.

It has rained a little over the past few days so if it gets very hot all of a sudden there could be some moisture on the pitch. If there is, and whoever fields first manages to bowl in the right areas, and catches are taken, early wickets could tumble and the batting side will be under pressure early on. Those are a lot of 'ifs' though and the damage will need to be done on that first morning because, a bit like Brisbane, there's every chance this wicket will get better and better and batting will become easier and easier. A set batsman at the crease on days two and three can really get stuck into the bowling and I wouldn't be surprised to see some more big team and individual scores.

I'm clearly not the only one thinking along these lines because the draw is favourite at 2.06 but that has to be the call. This Australian bowling attack doesn't look capable of taking 20 wickets on a pitch not offering any assistance. England's bowlers are in form but so are Michael Hussey, Brad Haddin, Ricky Ponting and to a lesser extent Shane Watson.

Ponting looked particularly comfortable in that second innings, has a good record at the ground and as I've said already, will have to answer his critics with big runs given how much his captaincy has been criticised. He gets my vote for the top Aussie first innings batsman at 5.2.

As the records tumbled in the second innings courtesy of Andrew Strauss, Alastair Cook and Jonathan Trott, I'm sure Kevin Pietersen will have been wishing he'd had the chance to come in and knock off some cheap runs on that Brisbane track. He'll have a chance to show us what he's all about here in Adelaide and my gut feeling is he'll make the most of it. He played a great innings here four years ago and at around 5.2 looks the pick to top score for England in their first knock.

Recommended Bets:

Back the draw in the Second Test at 2.06
Back Ricky Ponting to top score for Australia in the first innings at 5.2
Back Kevin Pietersen to top score for England in the first innings at 5.2

For more great Ashes coverage, visit http://betting.betfair.com/cricket/ashes-betting/

This is perhaps the most 'English' of the Australian wickets and that could provide Andrew Strauss with a superb chance of going 1-0 up in the Series.

This is an important toss to win and the best decision may well be to bowl first. Yes, I know, I know. Nasser's decision in 2002 came back to haunt him but that was eight years ago: conditions are different and the players on both sides have changed. If there's moisture in the pitch the ball will swing and if James Anderson gets first digs he'll be licking his lips at the prospect of bowling at Shane Watson and Simon Katich in his favourite conditions. But the man I really fancy to do the damage is Stuart Broad. He may not swing the ball quite as much as Jimmy but this is a hit-the-deck hard surface and he'll enjoy bowling here.

As for runs, I've said already this will be hard work for the top-order batsmen so it's best side to with someone in the middle order. Kevin Pietersen and Paul Collingwood should both score a few here but the better option may be to go with Ian Bell (7.0) who's been in great form in the warm-up matches and looks more confident in his game than ever before.

Whereas it's easy to guess who will play for England, the same can't be said of Australia. At the time of writing we don't know if Michael Clarke will feature given he's struggling with an injury and there may yet be a place for the left-arm spinner Xavier Doherty. At 28 he's no spring chicken but England won't have seen much of him and the thinking in the Australian camp is that the English batsmen won't be having any sleepless nights over facing Nathan Hauritz and that Doherty could cause them more problems. A lot has been made of Kevin Pietersen's difficulties with left-arm spinners but Paul Collingwood has had problems of his own against them. If Doherty gets the nod and claims those two scalps his selection will be more than justified but we'll have to wait and see what Ponting and the selectors decide to do.

I've entered Betfair's Winning Runs Ashes game which involves picking the four players I think will score the most runs in the First Test and have gone with Ponting as captain, Bell, Collingwood and Hussey. Let's see if you can do better than me!

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It may seem like an obvious thing to say but whoever draws first blood in Brisbane is likely to go on and win the Series.

And for my money, that could well be England. This is a very settled side which picks itself. They've playing together for a while now so know each other's strengths. The batsmen have spent a lot of time in the middle together whilst the bowlers are used to bowling as a unit, collectively unsettling batsmen. The only player under a bit of pressure is Kevin Pietersen, who has suffered a few injuries and a loss of form over the past few months. But that's nothing one good knock can't fix.

You can't say the same about Australia. Right now, I'm not sure anyone knows what their XI will be on Thursday morning, not least because there are injury doubts over Michael Clarke, their vice-captain who averages 55 against England. Then there's Ricky Ponting. It's a shame that one of the greatest batsmen ever may well end up being remembered as the only Aussie captain to have lost three Ashes series rather than his achievements with the bat but that's cricket. He'll be feeling the pressure whether he admits to it or not and if he starts to crack, the others may feel the strain too.

Andrew Strauss is a naturally phlegmatic man who looks and feels relaxed more often than not. He's also England's most consistent batsman over the last few years and with form against Australia and knowledge of Australian conditions, he could be the man to side with in the England Series top batsman market at 4.6.

Read Michael Vaughan throughout the Ashes on http://betting.betfair.com/cricket/ashes-betting/

English cricket fans will always remember the First Test at Brisbane back in 2002 as the one in which 'Nasser made the wrong choice'. Having called correctly, he opted to bowl first and it proved to be the wrong decision as Australia piled on just short of 500 runs; to make matters worse Simon Jones seriously damaged his knee and missed the rest of the Series. These things happen and Nasser has been carrying the can for that decision ever since but every captain makes a wrong decision at the toss at one stage or another and on the day he did what he thought gave him the best chance of winning the match.

I didn't have a great game myself, scoring 33 and 0, Australia won the match by a massive 384 runs and they never looked back after that.

Brisbane in an interesting wicket. It's the one that most resembles 'English conditions' with the ball seaming around whilst it's still new and I remember finding it hard to time the ball, opening the batting as I then was. It should make for a straightforward shoot-out between the 'quicks' on both sides and the slip catchers will have a big role to play. That means the opening batsmen will have their work cut out but if you can spend some time at the crease and play yourself in, the rewards are there and you can score heavily.

Read Michael Vaughan throughout the Ashes on http://betting.betfair.com/cricket/ashes-betting/